4/26 News, Links, Discussion: Contact and Innings Pitched for Brandon Beachy
April 26, 2012 at 11:33 am by David Lee under Atlanta Braves
Insert Clever Beachy Headline Here
Brandon Beachy has the third-best ERA in baseball so far at 1.05, while having a 3.60 xFIP. Beachy alluded to more contact pitching this year, and the numbers indicate this so far. His K% is down to 19.6% while his swinging strike percentage is down to 7.6%, both considerable drops from last season. And a .230 BABIP is helping the very low ERA. However, Beachy is also showing the ability to use this to his advantage.
Beachy started 25 games last season, and only in three of those did he reach the seventh inning. He allowed the most baserunners in the sixth inning, including the most walks (along with the fourth inning). His pitch counts were a concern as he racked up high strikeout numbers and pitched more for the punch out than the out in any case. I’m not saying this is wrong, because a strikeout is the ultimate pitcher’s out, but I’m sure it helped lead to Beachy’s shorter starts.
So far this year, Beachy has reached the seventh inning in three of his four starts. His opponents’ numbers in the sixth inning are 1-11 with a walk. He’s entering his later innings fresher and with fewer pitches thrown.
Sure, Beachy will regress some. It’s rather difficult to maintain a 1.05 ERA. But the way he’s pitching right now indicates he shouldn’t fall far. He’s holding line drives to a rate of 16.2% while increasing his ground ball rate to 47.3%. His outside swing percentage has dropped, but his outside contact percentage is risen even more, from 58.8% to 75%. This is a sign of weak contact, which is exactly what Beachy needs to succeed with fewer strikeouts.
Update (3:50p): Mark Bowman writes on the success of the starters so far.
Update (3:50p): Bernie Pleskoff of MLB.com features Beachy.
A Happy Ride Home
The Braves defeated the Dodgers 4-2 on Wednesday, earning the series win in Los Angeles and wrapping up a 5-2 road trip against two solid NL West teams. The Braves won both of their games against the Dodgers on go-ahead hits in the ninth inning while receiving two more good performances from Mike Minor and Brandon Beachy.
The Braves have the day off today before hosting the Pirates for four games this weekend. Pittsburgh has perhaps the worst offense in baseball to this point, recording a team wOBA of .262 with an isolated power mark of .104 and a 5.3 BB%. Compare that to the current Braves numbers: .328 wOBA, .161 ISO, 8.4 BB%.
More Links
John Sickels profiles former Braves prospect J.J. Hoover.
Eric Karabell has a mention of Julio Teheran in his latest bits.
Dan Szymborski for ESPN lists the 11 worst trades in MLB history. The Mark Teixeira trade comes in at No. 2, while the Len Barker deal is No. 10 (Insider required).
R.J. Anderson of Baseball Prospectus includes the Jair Jurrjens demotion in his latest transaction analysis.
Anthony Witrado of Sporting News writes on Jason Heyward’s rough 2011 and rebound in 2012. (h/t Benjamin Lewis)
AJC quotes following Wednesday’s win.
New (2:20p): Keith Law held a chat, and one of the first questions was regarding Evan Gattis. Law states it bluntly: “He’s not a prospect. He’s beating up on much younger, less physically developed competition, and offers no defensive value at a corner position.” (h/t Russell Brown)
New (3:00p): Ben makes the case for adding Mike Minor in fantasy leagues. It’s good advice. I grabbed him up in my draft.
New (5:30p): Baseball America profiles Braves pitching prospect Chris Masters (sub. required).
Around the NL East
Ken Rosenthal writes on the Marlins’ struggles, especially the middle of the order with Giancarlo Stanton and Logan Morrison.
New (2:30p): Rob Neyer writes on the Nationals pitching staff putting up insane numbers.
New (5:30p): Mike Pelfrey will likely need Tommy John surgery.
Check us out on Facebook, and follow us on Twitter: @Ben_Duronio, @fjrabon, @kevinorris, @David11Lee.
Check back throughout the day for the latest news and discussion updated on this post.
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I would love to hear someone’s take on Melky Cabrera. Was his 2011 season (with Kansas City) “above the mean”, as his 2010 season (Atlanta) was “below it”? Or are there other explanations for his improved numbers?
I would not be surprised if Melky just did not like Atlanta. I know last year was a career year for him in terms of all around ability but he is continuing to have some success this year in SF as well.
I wonder if he felt a lot of pressure to appease the Braves fans since (to the casual fan) he was the “big piece” of the Vaz trade. He may not have had a lot of that pressure in NY since he was in a lineup of Jeter, A-Rod, Tex, Cano, etc. Now though that he has had a year with KC where there is not a ton of pressure and SF where he has some pressure but maybe has learned more on how to deal with it. I know I did not like him in Atlanta, again maybe he just did not like Atlanta.
He got in much, much better shape before he got to Kansas City. His career was on the line and he got together physically. Even so, last year was still rather flukey. He’s probably closer to what he was with the Yankees than he was either in Atlanta or Kansas City.
The thing that is really good about Beachy is that IF he is in a situation where he needs a strikeout we all know he is capable of it. I do like how he changed himself in a way to help the overall team even though it may not make his numbers that daunting.
“Beachy Keen”
“Just Another Day at the Beach(y)”
“Game-Time Forecast: Perfect Beach Weather”
[Headlines to insert. You can have those for free]
My gf fantasy team name this year in Veni, Vidi, Beachy.
What about “Girl…you are always complaining…you are so Beachy.”
“Brandon leaves them beached in the sand”
“This beachy is made of quicksand”
“Its red hot on the beachy today”
“Beachy casts them adrift”
We are all going to get banned…and it is all altrod’s fault.
On a serious note, even when the regression happens it will not stop either Brandon or Mike Minor putting up great numbers this year, they are both very impressive and their improvement is clear to see and should excite all braves fans.
I can drink to that. Make it a “sex on the Beachy.”
Looking currently at ~3.30′s xFIPs, so things are looking good for these young guys. Those two and Hanson along with Hudson once he’s back are going to make this rotation very formidable.
It’s time to catch up on that missed sleep after the west coast swing. Some 7 o’clock starts will be a welcomed sight.
This, several times over. I used to love West Coast games because I stayed up until 1 (central) anyway, and that gave me something to do. Now, I’m typically in bed by 10:30. These LA games sucked because 1) they had me staying up past 11, and 2) I STILL didn’t get to see the end.
Getting older blows.
I will second that, work has been a shambles for the last week, sick of waking up with the tv on at 6am.
Or waking up because the TV suddenly got louder with one of those infomercials on at 3:30-4am. I hate that.
Psh, as someone who is up til 1am everyday anyway those were great. Gave me something besides homework to do.
Well I, for one, will be keeping Mr. Law’s comments about Gattis fresh in my head. That is a fairly bold statement for a guy that seems to be wrong about prospects just as much as he is correct.
How was Beachy’s velocity last night? I know it’s not the end all, be all for a guy with his command but last year he ran it up to 94 pretty frequently.
Law on Beachy today:
“Probably a solid 3. Better than I’d expected, but he’s pitching way above his stuff right now. Command/deception are great, but it’s an average fastball without much movement.”
I think Beachy’s biggest strength is his intelligence in pitch selection and his ability to to locate all four of his pitches. None of his pitches are overpowering, but his ability to locate four pitches and know when to throw them make him a fantastic pitcher. I think he’s already a “two” and has the ability to become a “one.”
A “solid 3″ should be, what, the 61st-80th best pitcher in the game, theoretically? Call me a homer, but I think he’s better. Currently sitting in the top 25 in FIP.
He’s doubling down, not willing to admit he was completely incorrect. He shouldn’t be ashamed of being incorrect though, everyone was. Literally, everyone.
Law came out a couple of years ago and basically said Beachy was a fluke and don’t buy into him.
I hope he says the exact same stuff about Gattis.
This guy reminds me a lot of Todd McShay. Not a compliment.
A fastball that moves so little Pitch/FX can’t tell the difference between it and a cutter.
I’m sure Law would have projected some Braves pitchers of old as 3′s just because they “pitched above their stuff.” Mike Minor said it best talking about the Braves having an intelligent staff. Intelligence won’t won’t show up on your stat sheet, but the Braves know better than anyone else that a smart pitcher will take you places. It’s a lot of fun watching Beachy and Minor keep hitters off-balance and mixing up their pitches. I hope this staff stays smart and Keith Law is eating his words over the next couple years with these guys in the rotation.
His velocity was in the 91-93 range on his fastball most of the night. He hit 95 once or twice, I think, maybe 94.
The inside pitch before Kemp’s homerun looked like a strike to me, and I was shocked he didn’t get the K. He looked flustered after that, and then the HR happened. Oh well. I really love watching him pitch. He looks so stoic out there, nothing seems to phase him (except that aforementioned missed 3rd strike).
This team is really exciting to watch. Last year I would have written them off in the 9th, but they battled. It’s good see both Danny Uggs and J-Hey going opposite field. Chipper’s at bat in the 9th was classic Chip, and I’ll miss him terribly next year. I’ve watched him his whole career (since I was 7!) which is amazing. I really hope they’re able to keep their young players like they did with Chipper, but I know in today’s game it’s not realistic. But there’s always hope!
It was absolutely a strike. Thankfully they came back and won, because that bad call would have determined last night’s game just as Marshall striking out Pagan earlier this afternoon and then him hitting a three run shot lost the game for the Reds.
Thing is, we’ve known about Beachy’s stuff for a while now and how he pitches above it. He very well could settle in as a 3, but with the way he’s adjusting right now, I see him as a 2 as he develops.
Number 1 starter. He’s got that type of game. He’s not too far from it right now.
I love Beachy to death, but I’m holding off on calling him a 1 right now. I’ll be happy to say I’m wrong.
He’s not yet, but his potential is certainly to be at that level.
Bernie thinks Beachy has a “very good cutter”
Was just going to type the same.
Thought that was pretty funny also. That line and the whole next paragraph devoted to Beachy throwing cutters right after y’all got the clarification that he doesn’t throw one.
I too nabbed Minor in my draft. I might have reached a little too high for him, but I felt he would have a great year after all I heard from spring camp, and I wanted to be sure I got him. Not disappointed so far.
I grabbed him off the FA wire. So far so good.
I have Beachy Keen and Life is Beachy as two of my teams along with Mike Minor Leagues. Have to love how good they’re making me look so far =)
Any thoughts on adding Brandon Inge so Ross can pinch hit and use Inge as a backup catcher if need be. Inge could also play a good 3rd defensively and is a right-handed option to Francisco on Chipper’s days off??
I don’t think Inge will or should happen. The Braves had Boscan on the roster for a while last year, and even so, Ross didn’t get many opportunities. It would be a waste to acquire a player to allow Ross to pinch hit. Inge would only take at bats away from Francisco and that is the last thing the Braves need. I believe Francisco is the third baseman of the future in Atlanta.
I’m glad you said that. I’ve been curious as to what you guys thought about Francisco long term.
Inge has proven he can play a good 2nd or 3rd defensively and possibly catcher. If he can play these i thnk he could play a better defense than say Diaz in left. Both right handed but Inge brings far more athleticism.
Anybody else find it hypocritical that Orris would say we need to learn from the Brewers and use our backup catcher but when i present a situation where we could use Ross and still have a legitimate option as a third string In Inge he says Inge shouldnt happen?
If all you took from Kevin’s argument that the Braves shouldn’t pursue Inge then you weren’t reading very closely.
No, I don’t. And he provides valid reasoning supporting his reply.
Brandon Inge is overpaid and bad. He is owed 5.5 million dollars this year and 6 million next year (although there is also a 500k buyout for next year), He’s 34 years old.
Did I mention that he’s bad? His wOBA from 2007-2011: 304, 297, 315, 314, 247. An average hitter is around 340. He’s at a resounding 168 this year.
Why don’t we try to acquire Craig Biggio? I think he could be a good fit as an emergency catcher. Or how bout Carlos Delgado? BJ Surhoff might be up for another go with the Braves. I think it’s been a few years but Todd Zeile might have some innings left behind the plate. All of these options would be better than trying to acquire Brandon Inge who isn’t very good at baseball.
Good lord the smartasses have come out today! ;)
I haven’t heard a few of those names in years. Wow.
Let’s just give Javier Lopez a call while we’re at it
You got to love Keith law refusing he made a mistake with Beachy. He has been down on him for two years now same with Minor. Keith Law is overrated as an analyst. There are better writers on other sites including ones that write for this one. I’m not sure why Keith Law is treated like some demigod by some fans.