Game 22: Braves 4, Pirates 3
April 29, 2012 at 5:31 pm by Kevin Orris under Atlanta Braves
Source: FanGraphs
Game MVP: Jose Tabata, .209
Least Valuable Pirate: Kevin Correia, -.325
Most Valuable Brave: Dan Uggla, .180
Least Valuable Brave: Chipper Jones, -.147
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Here’s a legitimate puzzle in that WPA graph: how does the Braves’ win expectancy increase (by .01%, but still) when Tabata scores on the wild pitch? I don’t think WPA takes fielder positioning or pitching from the stretch versus the windup into account, so that can’t be it. My best guess would be that more errors are recorded on balls hit on play with the runner on than with the bases empty in that spot, but it’s still hard to see how that washes out the effect of cashing in the run.
Just a guess but I think it was because it took the batter from one strike to two.
Once a runner gets on (or at least past first) in that situation you can pretty much count it as scored. The runner would have to do something pretty stupid to not score (get picked off or something) on any combination of events that would lead to the next, tying run scoring. Even if the runner was on second and a single was hit, the defense would only care preventing the tying run from getting to 2nd that there most likely wouldn’t even be a throw to the plate. So to me it makes sense that once the run scored it slightly increased the braves’ chances of winning because of some combination of throwing from windup vs. stretch, defensive positioning (although I think the defense should play it as if nobody was on base), and the possibility of a defender doing something stupid and letting the tying run advance to second on a ball in play.
Actually I agree with braveslifer. That late in the game the strike probably made the difference.
To my knowledge, Fangraphs only looks at score, men on base, inning, and outs in the inning. I think you had the answer right initially. It is just a weird quirk I guess.
Wow Chipper as the least valuable Brave? Won’t see that much this year I hope. It is outstanding to have Huddy back…that rotation just got a lot better.
The Nationals lost today! Braves are now tied for 1st place!
Durbin pitched in a 1-run game, but it was to the bottom of the order and the bullpen, other than the Big 3, could have used the rest. Not a terrible decision.
The great thing is that last year, the hot button issues were (1) Schafer leading off, (2) Heyward not playing, (3) the use of Linebrink and Proctor, (4) the use of Constanza, (5) over-working the back end of the bullpen, and maybe some I am forgetting.
This season? The “problems” have been reduced to Jack Wilson occasionally pinch hitting and Durbin usage. But Durbin is as good as Linebrink and must better than Proctor was. Lower run-scoring last year meant most close games, which meant Fredi’s decisions meant more, on average.
Some pretty poor grammar there, but you get the drift
I agree with you, except I actually think Durbin, while not good, is a bit better than Linestink. Time will tell if he ends up being a productive pick-up; perhaps his most important role being giving the Big 3 needed rest.
Will Doug eddings (the him plate umpire) get in trouble with the league for egging on Tim Hudson? Because that should be unacceptable and was way out of line.
How did they allow that run to score in the 9th? Should that not be a dead ball strike after the batter swung and it hitting him in the foot…thus sending the runner back to 3rd?
And Danish, I doubt it. Doug Eddings has a history of doing that to players. We’ve witnessed it several times over the years(once in Miami a couple years ago, and also in Boston when he tossed Chipper and a pitcher for asking where a pitch was[the pitch was an obvious strike...next pitch is a double for the go ahead score]). He’s also had an ego behind the plate.
I believe it was bill hohn who tossed chipper a few years ago in boston. O’flaherty was pitching at the time.
Ah yeah, maybe it was Hohn. Eddings has been involved in some of these incidents too though.
Yeah it was Hohn and I remember it cause it was the 1 time I can remember fearing Chipper might try to kill someone. After he got ejected he was LIVID!
You answered mine, I’ll answer yours Medestruit. The ball was in the dirt and on replay it appeared it hit Jones on the foot (It did). Mccann argued and Eddings convened with other umpires but none of them of agreed that it hit Jones on the foot. So while Mccann played the ball as though it was dead, the umpires let the game proceed as though it was a live ball and therefore it was scored as a regular strike and the resulting run and runner position left intact.