Game 23: Pirates 9, Braves 3
April 30, 2012 at 10:43 pm by David Lee under Atlanta Braves
Source: FanGraphs
Game MVP: Freddie Freeman, .157
Least Valuable Brave: Mike Minor, -.479
Most Valuable Pirate: Neil Walker, .143
Least Valuable Pirate: James McDonald, -.045
Big swing: Pedro Alvarez two-run homer in the fourth put the Pirates ahead, 4-2, .241.
Before you ask why WPA did what it did tonight, just remember it scores according to win expectancy. Keep that in mind.
Loading ...
Fredi just put to rest the Ross PH debate. Diaz PH against a RHP in the 9th in a blowout. Yes, Heyward was unavailable, but if that’s a LPH, Diaz goes up anyway, so Ross is literally the last bat off the bench.
As for Durbin, it is ultimately on Wren. Fredi is going to use him if he’s there.
Agreed re: Durbin. If a parent gives his four-year-old a rusty nail to play with, whose fault is it when the tyke gets tetanus?
It’s one thing to put a crappy reliever on a team, it’s a whole separate issue to use the worst reliever on the team in the highest leverage situation two nights in a row. Fredi Gonzalez is probably the thickest manager in baseball, he will never even understand why he’s perceived as an idiot
Down 3 in the 7th is pretty low leverage, and for the season Durbin does have the lowest average leverage of any Braves reliever. Last year, Linebrink and Proctor had, at times, had much higher average leverage. So either intentionally or out of blind luck, Fredi is minimizing his usage of Durbin.
The Braves took a shot on Durbin, which is pretty good strategy with relievers, who tend to have variable success year to year. Buy low and hope they provide value (like Sherrill last year). But he’s had an extended look if you include spring training, and there are far better options in the organization, including Chapman and Gearrin, not to mention JJ.
Strangely, Durbin’s xFIP of 3.97 entering tonight was the lowest of his career. His FIP of 7.47 was sadly not his highest. I’m thinking the latter reflects his true skill level. He had trouble keeping the ball in the yard the first few years of his career, improved from 2008-2010, regressed last year, and he’s doing even worse this year. To the extent he had a prime, those days are long past.
“Down 3 in the 7th is pretty low leverage”
Clearly not low enough. Since our chances in that game were not less than one percent at that point, there is no reason to use him. He literally destroys almost any chance this team has at a win akmost every time he is used. We can hash this out again and again, but Durbin’s roster spot is better occupied by another fielder for the simple fact that he cannot be used. Have Livan pitch one extra inning in those situations and be done with him.
Although I do agree that taking a chance on Durbin initially was a good idea.
BTW – what is the deal with bad calls at second when Bourn is stealing a base?.
I don’t like the idea that taking a shot on Durbin was a good idea. We’re giving 900,000 on a major-league contract to a 34-year-old journeyman without overpowering stuff or good splits who, for his career, has produced -0.5 bWAR, including -0.7 last year, and got released from a minor league contract before spring training even started. In his last five full seasons, he hasn’t walked fewer than 3.4/9IP or produced an xFIP less than 4. This isn’t a former touted prospect who just needed a little mechanical reworking, better luck, or confidence, this is a career meatballer. I’ve nothing against Chad (or Scott^2)–I’ll acknowledge that he had a good season for the Phils a couple years ago, but we have better options in Lawrenceville.
Hopefully after yet another crappy outing, management will finally think about DFAing Durbin.
i hate to say this, but at what point do we start thinking about trading for a starter? altho, delgado’s spot would be the only open one, and the team is probably not likely to give anything up for a fifth starter, right?
Why would they want to trade for a starter? That would seem to be about the last thing they need to worry about. Delgado is doing a good job as a fifth starter. Who would you trade for that could be expected to do a better job? If Delgado really cratered and the Braves decided that they needed another fifth starter, they would be much better off to move Medlen into that role.
By trade do you mean call up Teheran? Or make a trade with the bullpen for Medlen or Livan? But yeah, I agree w Chuck that Delgado is doing a fine job in the 5 spot.
Just as food for thought, check out David’s 5/1 News Entry update at 3:15. Pure speculation but food for thought nonetheless.
Durbin was apparently signed as the dreaded “veteran presence” in the bullpen. That’s one thing I don’t understand though. If you’re going to sign someone as a veteran presence, shouldn’t it be someone whose game the younger players can respect, someone like Wagner when he was on the Braves? They may like Durbin as a person, but given his performance, are they going to respect him as a player?
Durbin has come into the most games of any Braves reliever and thrown more innings. than O’Flaherty.
Venters and Kiimbrel had two bad games at the end of last season and everyone blamed fatigued. Well if those games had been lost earlier in the year because Fredi had used Proctor or Linebrink would anyone had cared since the team would have missed the playoffs anyway?
Why does Fredi have this terrible fascination with such terrible relievers?
Yes, Durbin has entered more games but isn’t that due to the fact that a lot of the wins this year have been 4+ run leads late? Maybe I’m not remembering correctly which is quite possible. I also realize that Durbin has been used in some high-leverage situations but last night was the first time that he allowed an inherited runner to score. His past 6-8 outings have been pretty good. I’m not saying that he should be in there in the 7th with a 1-run lead, I realize he is the worst pitcher in the pen but I think he was properly used last night. People would have been calling for Fredi’s head had he used a better reliever in that situation.
I really do not understand why Wren got Durbin. Asencio is better. We could have kept him. Gearrin is better. Jaye Chapman is better. Anthony Varvaro is better. Oh, and all of those guys would have been league minimum as opposed to Dubbin’s $1M.
According to baseball reference splits, Durbin has pitched in one game (Sunday vs Pit) with an ALI above 1 (1.05). Eight of his nine other appearances, his ALI is below .80 and averages 0.31. Overall, he is being used exactly as he should be – when he has no impact on the game whatsoever from a WPA standpoint. His WPA sums to a grand total of -0.011. It may be frustrating to see him come into a game like last night when a game is still winnable, but from a leverage index and WPA standpoint, he is pitching when the game is basically decided. Livan, with a similar LI (avg .45 for Durbin and .43 for Livan), has a -.107 WPA. Medlen and CM are being used in higher leverage situations (though still relatively low pressure overall on average) but assumedly when those situations are with the Braves winning or losing by 2 runs or less instead of 3 or more with Doobin and Livan.
Also interesting, in “medium” and “unk” (not sure what consitutes “unk”) leverage situations Doobins BAA is .000 in 9 ABs. In 28 “low” leverage ABs, ML hitters are hitting at video game rates. 14/28 (.500)/ 3 HR/ slugging a ridiculous .893 with a ridiculous 1.441 OPS. Based on just this, is he just mailing it in when called on in low leverage situtations where he has no impact on the game? SSS aside, he’s been able to get it done when games are tighter.
Either way, Doobins can’t be expecting, nor should we expect him, to be with the team long into the summer even though Proctor somehow made it to August last year. I put these type of decisions on Wren, not Fredi. He’s being used as he should be. Livan could be pitching more, but only in the same exact situations per the stats. CM and Meds pitch when the game is tighter and less decided, ahead or behind. Doobins and Livan are being used exactly as they were brought in to – trash heap pitchers used in situations where they can rarely impact a game. I did wonder why in the world Doobin pitched Sunday in a one run game though. That should never happen – even though the stats say he might try harder in the closer games.
In my final opinion, no way Doobin lasts the season, though August (based on Proctor) is a possibility. It also seems like he tries harder in tougher situations and seems to be throwing wiffle ball BP when the game is not on the line (a bit tongue in cheek, but only a bit). Finally, the longer Doobin lasts, the more it is on Wren, not Fredi. With just two exceptions (20% of appearances), he is being used like the mop up he was expected to be.
Well put. I think people are starting to overfocus on the Durbin thing. It didn’t make sense to sign him and his usage is pretty much a white flag, but the amount of time spent talking about him has wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyy outpaced his actual relevance to the Braves winning or losing. Last night we had a couple balls just barely not get out of the park, another Bourn missed call, and inconsistent stuff leading to a bad outing from Minor. These are the reasons why we lost.
“I think people are starting to overfocus on the Durbin thing”
Not much else to complaint about on a nightly basis, and where is the fun in baseball if there’s nothing to complain about.