5/1 News, Links, Discussion: Braves-Phillies, Solving Cole Hamels, Jason Heyward Update
May 1, 2012 at 11:33 am by David Lee under Atlanta Braves
The Phillies Come to Town
The Braves’ 9-3 loss to the Pirates on Monday was a disappointing finish to an otherwise excellent April. The Braves finished the month at 14-9, only losing one series in the month and winning five.
After a month of play, the Braves are third in baseball in offensive fWAR at 5.7. Their team wOBA of .323 is ninth in MLB, compared to last season’s total of .304, which ranked 23rd in baseball.
Atlanta is looking to continue its success into another month as it hosts the Phillies for three games to begin May. Game time for today is 7:10 on SportSouth and MLB Network. Brandon Beachy faces Cole Hamels.
Braves lineup: Michael Bourn (CF), Martin Prado (LF), Freddie Freeman (1B), Brian McCann (C), Dan Uggla (2B), Matt Diaz (RF), Juan Francisco (3B), Tyler Pastornicky (SS), Brandon Beachy (P).
Phillies lineup: Jimmy Rollins (S, SS), Placido Polanco (R, 3B), Shane Victorino (S, CF), Hunter Pence (R, RF), Ty Wigginton (R, 1B), Laynce Nix (L, LF), Carlos Ruiz (R, C), Freddy Galvis (S, 2B), Cole Hamels (L, P).
Game Notes
Update (6:30p): Jason Heyward remains out and is now looking at possibly Thursday as a return date. Chipper Jones is sitting tonight but no reason has been given. The lineup was posted later than usual, so some last-minute decision making could have caused this.
Cole Hamels owns a 29.4 K% and 2.9 BB% through 26.1 innings, so I could probably end there and you would know how his season is going. He has a 2.73 ERA and 2.27 xFIP, tying a career high with a 13.6% swinging strike percentage. He’s throwing a few more cutters and changeups while dropping his curveball some, to the point where it’s just a fourth offering to change eye levels. His change remains the nasty pitch, receiving a whiff/swing rate of 61.54%, which is outrageous. He’s inducing a solid number of ground balls off the cutter at 57.14%, while his straight four-seamer remains the pitch to take advantage of if possible. In his last three starts, Hamels has allowed five runs in 21 innings with 21 strikeouts and five walks.
Jason Heyward hopes to return by Wednesday from a sore right oblique. We should see an update on this before the day is over.
More Links
Per Bowman’s notes, he has more information on Evan Gattis’ promotion to Double-A. Christian Bethancourt suffered a strained right hamstring on Sunday, so Gattis will catch until Bethancourt returns in a week or so, if all goes as planned. When Bethancourt returns, Gattis is expected to shift to the outfield for the majority of the time.
AJC quotes following Monday’s loss. Fredi Gonzalez on Jason Heyward: “Right now I’ll probably give him [today] off. If it’s getting better with just a little time and therapy, I think one more day will be that much better.”
Update (3:15p): Troy Renck of the Denver Post is of the opinion that the Braves would be on Roy Oswalt’s short list of destinations if he signs this season. This is purely Renck’s opinion based on Oswalt’s home location in Mississippi. With the Braves’ confidence in Jair Jurrjens at an all-time low, and the team relying on rookies at the back end of the rotation in a contending year, I don’t think it’s quite as insane to assume the front office will at least ask what the price tag is. But I think it remains a very long shot.
Update (3:30p): David O’Brien has his latest blog post up previewing the series with the Phillies.
Around the NL East
Buster Olney’s blog post today is headlined by the Marlins’ struggles in April (Insider required).
Stephania Bell of ESPN writes on the updates of Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, as well as the Nationals’ bullpen injury woes.
Bob Brookover of the Philadelphia Inquirer writes on Jim Thome’s pinch-hit struggles this year.
Update (3:00p): Mike Axisa of FanGraphs looks at Giancarlo Stanton’s lack of power so far this season and whether it should be attributed to his knee issue or the park.
Update (3:00p): Eno Sarris of FanGraphs profiles Lucas Duda for fantasy purposes.
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Check back throughout the day for the latest news and discussion updated on this post.
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Durbin leads the Brave’s pitchers in games played 10, and has an Era of 9.00. Martinez only has played 6 games yet has an ERA of 1.42. Why isn’t M used more in high leverage situations? I thought this was to be his role.
I wouldn’t look at games played for Durbin… He’s pitched in only mop up duty situations with the exception of the first couple games of the year and Sunday(?).
Actually, half of Durbin’s appearances have come in games with leads or deficits of three runs or less. I think Fredi’s quote after Sunday’s game was both clarifying and troubling – he sees Durbin as the 6th inning guy. In close games, he intends to use Durbin in the 6th if needed, O’Flaherty in the 7th, Venters in the 8th, and Kimbrel in the 9th. He’ll use Medlen for mutliple innings if the team has a big lead (possibly with a lead of just three runs) and Livan for multiple innings if the team is losing. Obviously everyone wants to see bullpen usage based on leverage rather than defined roles, but since that obviously isn’t going to happen the most egregious problem is this notion that Durbin should be used in close games before Martinez (or Medlen for that matter).
Actually, the bullpen usage in general, and Durbin usage specifically, has been correct on an aggregate basis. Sure, there might be a decision here or there that wasn’t “ideal” but over the course of 23 games, the bullpen has been used pretty well.
As support for the above, take a look at the bullpen’s pLI. Sorted from top to botton it’s almost exactly what you want to see – Kimbrel at the top and Durbin at the bottom. In fact, aside from O’Flaherty being slighty ahead of Venters, it’s EXACTLY in the order that you want it.
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=3&season=2012&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=16&rost=0&age=0&players=0&sort=6,d
My mistake Medlen has 8 games, but Martinez with a 2.70 ERA has played in 6 games.
He’s made three of his ten appearances with the score difference of >3 runs. He shouldn’t even be on a team let alone pitching in non absolute blow out situations.
Re; Durbin, you could also argue he has made 60% of his appearances with the margin >/= 3 runs. Also, again, he and Livan have the lowest Leverage Indices on the team, 1/3 less than CM and 1/2 of Med’s. Per the data, in no way should Durbin be utilized in any < 3 run margin before Martinez or Medlen. This is what I don't understand. Pitch him at will in games he has no effect on the outcome, like last night. But Sunday, even in the sixth inning, I couldn't make any argument why he'd pitch there before CM or Meds or even EOF if lefty's were due up.
Using Durbin correctly is DFAing him
Ben, do the Braves have the financial resources to sign Roy Oswalt? If I were Frank Wren, that is the only roadblock that would prevent me from signing him. Despite a couple good outings, Delgado needs to be in AAA with Tehran working on his secondary pitches and learning how to work deeper into games. The Braves cannot expect anything from Jurrjens. Oswalt would be a perfect fit and would make the Braves staff as strong as any other staff in the game. I think it would be a great move if he is healthy and the Braves have some money to pull it off.
Here’s what I don’t get; If Ross starts, Fredi will PH Mccann.
He PH with Jack Wilson leaving no backup infielder should Wilson get hurt.
But Ross is never used as a PH?
Beachy proves again he is a potential number 1, Big mac has a bad night apart from the hr, Captain Jack is a joke, should not be anywhere near the bigs, he creamed that one late but has no pop at all in his bat. Everyday Jonny just wasn’t there tonite. It always hurts more against those pieces of shit! I hate the Phillies and I hate Shane Victorino with a passion. I think we lost the last 8 against them now and its getting very tedious! At least Frediot didn’t screw up too badly tonight, he left that to others!