Trying to Explain the Trade That Nobody Seems to Understand
August 3, 2009 at 9:34 pm by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves, Front Office, Player Analysis, Transactions
So for the third straight year, the Braves do something involving a 1B at the trade deadline. They went from pulling off a 7-player trade for the biggest name on the trade market, Mark Teixeira, to trading said big name for dimes on the dollar that they paid to get him, to shipping off some of the dimes they got for a 2-month rental. The previous trades were easily digestible, easily understood, and everyone seemed to have the same reaction to the trades. When Schuerholz acquired Teixeira and a reliever for 4 prospects and our big-league catcher-turned-1B, the trade was universally understood. The Braves are going for it. They traded away elite prospects, but they got their guy. He’ll help them tremendously on offense and on defense. They should be primed for a playoff push for the next two years. In 2007 they missed the playoffs and in 2008 an injury-wrecked pitching staff led them to their worst record since 1990.
Seeing as they weren’t going to make the playoffs, Wren decided to do a little damage control and trade Teixeira for something useful rather than just lose him to FA and simply collect 2 draft picks. The return of Casey Kotchman and Stephen Marek wasn’t awesome. But that’s about all Wren could’ve gotten for Tex. Might as well just get what you can. Like I said, dimes on the dollar his predecessor paid for Tex. Whether or not two draft picks would’ve been more valuable is certainly debatable, but that situation won’t be addressed in this space. Not today, at least. But whether or not you agree with the move, you can at least understand why he did it.
But nobody really seems to understand the Kotchman for LaRoche swap. It’s one that requires more thought. Not easy to digest. You have to delve deeper into the framework of the organization and the trades’ implications beyond this year to really understand it. Even then, I think it’s impossible to fully understand it until we see what goes on this off-season, but I’ll attempt to lay it out. Some points.
1) The trade is risky. We traded two years and two months of Casey Kotchman for two months of Adam LaRoche. Purely in terms of value, two years and two months of Casey Kotchman is worth more than two months of Adam LaRoche. Granted, there’s financial uncertainty with Casey as an arbitration-eligible player, but simply put, all other things equal, his contract is worth more than LaRoche’s contract. Even when you consider the fact that the Red Sox included money to make the deal salary-neutral (that is, the Braves’ will not pay, out of pocket, more money than they would have had they not made the deal), the Red Sox got more value from the trade than the Braves did.
But we’re not talking about a zero-sum game here. Trades are rarely a zero-sum game. Both involved parties can win, both involved parties can lose, or some combination that doesn’t add up to zero. If you only consider the value of each player, then yes, they are. But sometimes a player (or a contract) is more valuable to a certain team than it is to another.
LaRoche could end up being more valuable to us than Casey’s contract, even if LaRoche is only around for a few months. For reasons I’ll get to.
2) It’s not nearly as risky as the Mark Teixeira deal. Just like the stock market, the maximum you can lose is your initial investment. I now look at the Mark Teixeira deal as basically trading 5 prospects (4 with star potential) for what really amounted to, in the end, nothing*. No playoff berth. And those 5 prospects are gone forever. The good news about this deal is the Braves traded zero prospects and 1 contract which doesn’t represent a significant piece of their future. Now of course you always want to maximize value, and if a few things don’t happen, the Braves didn’t maximize their value. But if this trade is a complete failure, at the end of the day, you’ve lost two years and two months of Casey Kotchman. It’s Casey Kotchman. It’s an easy loss to stomach. Not like you traded Matt LaPorta or anything.
*I do go overboard with the “nothing”. We used Teixeira for a year, Ron Mahay for two months, let Mahay walk, then traded Teixeira. In the Teixeira deal, we netted an interesting relief prospect (who decided to get really fat and become fairly useless this season, but that’s neither here nor there. He’s still a prospect and it isn’t relevant) and three years and two months of Casey Kotchman. We used a year of Kotchman then flipped two years and two months of him to Boston for two months of Adam LaRoche. So at this point we’ve got two months of Adam LaRoche and an interesting relief prospect to show for the 5 prospects we dealt for Teixeira. Not “nothing” but certainly pennies on the dollar.
3) The organization’s intentions behind this move are clear. They believe that LaRoche gives them a better chance to make the play-offs than Kotchman does. Furthermore, LaRoche attempts to address the teams’ biggest systematic weakness: the inability to hit home runs. It’s hard to theoretically argue that LaRoche doesn’t addresses this issue. LaRoche has hit a home run in 4.1% of his career PA’s whereas Kotchman has hit a home run in only 2.2% of his PA’s. LaRoche also has more than twice as many home runs this year as Kotchman does. But though the LaRoche acquisition attempts to fix the teams’ biggest systematic weakness, does it give the team a better chance to make the post-season?
Kotchman is a superior defender to LaRoche. LaRoche isn’t necessarily a disaster with the glove, but Kotchman is one of the best in the business, and almost anyone is a downgrade in that department. The advanced metrics show LaRoche is a below-average defender. Though only slightly. Whereas Kotchman is a well above-average defender. No question, we lost something in that department in the deal.
LaRoche, in his career, has been a better hitter than Kotchman. He owns a career .270/.338/.487 line, good for a .349 wOBA opposed to Kotchman’s .271/.339/.412 and .327 wOBA. This year, however, LaRoche’s line is down from his career line, as he’s only hitting .251/.329/.449 with a .331 wOBA. Kotchman is hitting a respectable .281/.353/.408 with the exact same .331 wOBA, up from his career line. Kotchman is only 26 years old and LaRoche is 29 years old, so this could be LaRoche simply declining due to age and Kotchman improving as he reaches his prime. Could be. Or it could be luck. Or a slump by LaRoche. The organization, however, feels that something else is at play here.
LaRoche has been a notorious second-half hitter. That is–he hits better in the 2nd half than he does in the 1st half. In his career, LaRoche has hit .252/.326/.447 (eerily similar to his .251/.329/.449 line thus far this season), belting a home run 3.5% of the time he comes to the plate, in the first half whereas he has hit .296/.356/.554, belting a home run 5.0% he comes to the plate, in the second half. This isn’t just 1 monster 2nd half season, he’s pulled this exact same trick every single year he’s been in the big leagues. I can’t explain it. I don’t see how I could. I’m also far from convinced that something is actually making him a better 2nd half hitter and it’s not just a coincidence. I’ve never seen one study that concludes previous 1st/2nd half performances have predictive value. Or even one that suggests a thing called a “2nd half hitter” exists. Maybe Probably the organization knows more than I do. Maybe it’s a risk they’re willing to take. I don’t know their reasoning for being able to count on or hope that LaRoche pulls his usual trick. I know that if LaRoche hits .296/.356/.554 for us he’ll most likely be a substantial upgrade, but if he hits .251/.329/.449, well, we probably should’ve just kept Kotchman in that case. And I don’t pretend to know which of the two we’ll see. Hopefully the former.
So to answer the question, does LaRoche give the Braves a better chance to win, only if he hits like he has in the 2nd half of his career.
4) It’ll be an interesting off-season. Before the LaRoche trade, I just assumed the organization had Kotchman penciled in for 1B in 2010. He provides value, albeit not much. And he’s a cheap, young, sure thing. It’s not like he’s ever hurt the team, like, say, oh, I don’t know, Francoeur. Kotchman provided a nice stop-gap until Freddie Freeman, the organization’s future at 1B, is ready. Now, Kotchman is no longer in the organization and LaRoche will be eligible for free agency. He’s close to qualifying for Type B FA status and if he hits like he has in his career in the 2nd half, he most likely will qualify. Does the organization attempt to re-sign him? Probably not. Freddie Freeman will almost certainly be MLB ready by the start of the 2011 season and LaRoche isn’t going to be looking for a 1-year deal. He’s eligible for free agency for the first time in his career. He’s looking to make his big money, cash in big time. So that seems out of the question.
With Kotchman’s contract off the books, does the organization use the money to a) go after a free agent 1B, b) go after a free agent OF, c) retain bullpen help (Soriano and/or Gonzalez), d) retain starting pitching (Hudson, Vazquez), or e) just cover arb raises? I don’t know. An infield of Chipper, Escobar, Prado, and Kelly Johnson (with either Prado or Chipper playing 1st and the other playing 3rd, I’ll get to the moving Chipper to 1st thing in another article) would be sufficient offensively provided KJ returns to form and Prado continues to hit. Can the organization count on that until Freeman is ready? Would they be best served keeping their pitching staff mostly intact and going with the group they already have? I don’t know. We’ll see how the off-season plays out. All I know is that it’s going to be very interesting. We won’t know how to evaluate this trade until we see what Wren does with the financial flexibility he’s inherited now that Kotchman’s contract will be off the books in 2010. And just to clarify, no, Kotchman isn’t making A-Rod money. But he’ll likely get 4-5 million dollars in arbitration. And that’s no small chunk of change. Especially to a mid-market team.
5) Conclusion. While I feel like I’ve made some good points, I don’t feel like I’m any closer to being able to assess this trade. There’s so much at play here. His first half numbers vs. his second half numbers, the contract situations, etc. If this move proves to be the difference in the Braves making the playoffs and not making the playoffs, it was a good one, even if they sort of sold Casey Kotchman a for pennies on the dollar. There’s no question, the Braves didn’t maximize value here, but making the post-season makes it worth it. It really does. When you make a trade like this–one that you give up more than your recieve with intentions of making the post-season–it was good if you make the post-season and bad if you didn’t. And even then, we’ll have to see how the off-season plays out before we can really evaluate the trade. So we’ll see. I don’t really have an opinion on the trade. My opinion is this: the front office usually knows what they’re doing (even if they’re usually slow to react to non-productive players). So I’m only hoping they got it right and hoping LaRoche turns in a strong August and September and (hopefully) October. Wouldn’t surprise me. But it also wouldn’t surprise me if he doesn’t. And that would be very, very bad.
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Great article
No way this team makes it to October … too many holes that weren’t filled quickly enough. Too many bad losses against bad teams.
The Braves are a combined 14-15 against the Pirates, Reds, Padres, Diamondbacks and Nationals. Can’t go below .500 against that bunch and make the postseason.
Not happening.
Thanks, Lamar.
Tom,
I bet if I looked hard enough I could find a team who made the playoffs but had a sub-.500 record against the worst 5 teams in the league. Zero predictive power in that.
and they, supposedly, get him to improve their power, yet bat him 7th in front of matty diaz last night.. am i completely wrong to think mac isn’t really a cleanup hitter, and should be in the 5 hole in front of yunel???
Heh. What’s really at play here is the fact that Bobby Cox is so in love with Garret Anderson and constantly bats him 5th. I’d go McLouth, Prado, Chipper, LaRoche, McCann, Escobar, ACHE, Church vs. RHP and McLouth, Prado, Chipper, McCann, Escobar, LaRoche, ACHE, Diaz vs. LHP. LaRoche needs to bat lower than 7th, though, you’re completely right about that.
LaRoache will hit for more power than Kotchman ever will. Look at their overall numbers after the season and you’ll see a big difference in the offensive numbers.
Kotchmans defense and batting avg were fine but one homerun a month for a power position wasn’t gonna cut it. Just ask Cox and Wren. Also, you talk as if LaRoache was some retard with the glove and Kotchman was a wizard….Yes Kotchman is better defensively but not worth the lack of offense , hence the trade.
As far as money and value, Kotchman would be due for an arb. raise of probably 4-5 million in the off season and if Braves are gonna pay that kind of money there going after someone else. Besides, next year Barbaro Canizares and F. Freeman will battle for first base in spring training.
I don’t talk as if LaRoche “was some retard with the glove”. If you actually read the article, this is what I say:
“Kotchman is a superior defender to LaRoche. LaRoche isn’t necessarily a disaster with the glove, but Kotchman is one of the best in the business, and almost anyone is a downgrade in that department. The advanced metrics show LaRoche is a below-average defender. Though only slightly. Whereas Kotchman is a well above-average defender. No question, we lost something in that department in the deal.”
The Braves problems all season long has been scoring runs.
Kotchman had the lowest number of homeruns of all the starting infielders the Braves had. Also, Kotchman was second to last in homeruns by a starting first baseman in the NL before the break.
Defense is great but not at that expense.
Doesn’t Church play a little 1B? If so, he can man first while the Manchild, Ironbat Heyward takes over in RF.
L.S. Smith, I agree. LaRoche addresses our biggest systematic weakness. That’s why he’s more valuable to us than the market values him and why he’s more valuable to us than Kotchman.
hawesg,
Church has never played 1B in his major or minor-league career. That’s an interesting idea, though.
looking forward to more articles from you. best wishes.
Congrats on the mlbtraderumors link.
I’ve been very non-committal on the Laroche deal. You’ve made the points that should be considered about the short-term value of the deal. I have been on record as saying that I think this offseason will be MORE important for Wren than last season’s was. There’s a lot of money that comes off the books, and one very big decision to make on the Hudson front.
The free agent market for firstbase is ugly to say the least, as is the market for thirdbase. You almost have to wonder whether picking up the option for Huddy’s in the works and then a trade for a firstbaseman. Perhaps someone like Overbay comes back into the equation? Dare I say it, maybe (and I do mean maybe and I am NOT at all convinced on this front) the Braves even make a meaningful run at Adrian Gonzalez. I somewhat doubt we have the prospect base (excluding Heyward of course) to make that happen, but something must be in the works.
Assuming a Huddy re-sign, do you think there’s any chance KK moves to a closer role? Letting Gonzalez and Soriano both walk saves a lot of money and is in line with the Braves reluctance to pay big money on the free agent market for a reliever. KK would be an expensive reliever, but not that much more than Soriano made this year, and perhaps he can pull off a performance similar to Kaz Sasaki of the Mariners from years ago.
Should be an interesting offseason to say the least.
I really believe Kawakami should be shut down for the rest of the year, didn’t he last year only pitch around 110 innings, and in a 6 man rotation, i realy don’t believe you can get more than 150-160 quality innings a year out of him and for 7 million a year not much of a bargain there… by quality, i am referring to non-jeff bennett type of innings…
and what are the projections for jason heywards power numbers?? a 20-30, 30-40 homers???in any case, gonna be nice seeing him hit cleanup on opening day next year with eddie perez as the manager!!
Heh, Keith. Dare to dream? As far as his power goes, he’s the kind of player that can basically hit as many home runs as he wants to. If he wanted to hit 40, he could, but his approach at this point is geared more towards average and gap power than hitting long-balls. He sprays line-drives all over the field with his level swing. But if he swung with a bit more of an upper-cut he’d be able to hit big-time home runs.
tomatalk,
All great points.
You might be able to find a team, but it won’t be easy. In order to stack up 85-90-100 wins, playoff teams typically collect wins against the bottom feeders and hold their own against the better teams in the league.
The Braves — even in the Glory Years — have always had a team that proved to be a thorn in their side (see Marlins), but they never struggled against ALL of the bottom feeders. That’s what the Braves have done this year.
We’ll see how it plays out. The Braves may have reacted too late to the non-producers (Schafer, Francoeur, Kelly Johnson, and to a certain extent–Casey Kotchman), but I feel like the team they currently have is constructed in a way that would allow them to make the playoffs. If they had only played a full year with this group….
I think they decided that Barbaro Canizares was not appreciably worse than Casey Kotchman in a worst-case scenario. He hits better, fields worse. Maybe he could sort-of fill the Brayan Pena role for Escobar as well. Kotchman was reportedly not a good clubhouse fit.
Yeah, I read a few reports that Kotchman was completely uninterested in interacting with anyone on the team save ACHE and both of them would rather still be Angels. Other reports say Kotchman’s personality wasn’t a fit in Atlanta. Overall, I don’t think he contributed anything in the clubhouse, and possibly had a negative effect.
the way i see it, this trade is not hard to understand in the slightest. our biggest problem was power, our biggest hole was first base. wren addressed the problem. he also traded a reputed chemistry wrecker for a guy who is still close friends with many Braves.
coming into the season, i reckoned that everything hinged on how francoeur and kotchman performed. things turned out pretty awful. well here we are with 2 months left, those guys basically screwed us, but wren has gotten rid of both of them, improved the team as much as he or probably anyone else could have, and we are in contention despite the terrible offensive first half. that’s really pretty shocking….i’m no wren apologist, but when i look at it that way, i’m impressed.
and as a visitor to your site, i’d like to note: it’s a bit distressing how your tone is almost exclusively negative. i could list a lot of things but i’ll sum it up with a paraphrase: “this is a good trade if we make the playoffs, if we don’t wren looks pathetic.” don’t you think making the playoffs is the same calculus the team management is using? don’t you think they know they are giving up a cheaper player for a shot at something this year? all the potshots are getting old, mate.
Vance,
the way i see it, this trade is not hard to understand in the slightest.
Call me crazy, but when you trade a guy who has produced a .331 wOBA this season with 2 years and 2 months left on his contract and plays gold-glove defense for a guy who has produced a .331 wOBA this season with only 2 months left on his contract and plays slightly below-average defense, well, on the surface it doesn’t make much sense. I do end up making sense of it, because it’s a much better move than that. But you can certainly see how someone who hasn’t spent the past few years following the players involved would glance at it and say, “huge win for the Red Sox”. My arguement is, “it’s not that simple and could end up being a very good thing for the Braves.”
t’s a bit distressing how your tone is almost exclusively negative.
Are you speaking in terms of the site’s content as a whole or just this article? Either way it’s not valid, but I would like to know which you’re speaking of.
I’ll sum it up with a paraphrase: “this is a good trade if we make the playoffs, if we don’t wren looks pathetic.”
I never said anything about Wren looking “pathetic”, I just said that if the Braves don’t make the playoffs the trade was most likely a mis-allocation of resources. Doesn’t make him look pathetic, just means he took a gamble and lost, that’s all.
don’t you think making the playoffs is the same calculus the team management is using?
Of course that was the basis for the decision. What, exactly, in my post leads you to believe I think otherwise? I pretty much come out and state “I know making the playoffs is the calculus the team management is using”:
I go on to examine the question: does LaRoche actually give the Braves a better chance to make the playoffs and conclude only if he pulls his usual 2nd-half trick. And I state I don’t know whether or not he will do so.
don’t you think they know they are giving up a cheaper player for a shot at something this year?
First of all, it’s a salary neutral deal. The Braves aren’t giving up a “cheaper player” since the Red Sox are shipping the Braves the difference in the players’ salaries, they’re giving up a more valuable contract. Secondly, what in my post leads you to believe I don’t know what the organization is doing? Again, I pretty much state they know what they’re doing:
all the potshots are getting old, mate.
I haven’t made potshots, except at Francoeur and the FO’s handling of the Francoeur situation (until July 10, 2009). To me, it seems like you’re perception is off. I’m just trying to be objective and realistic and stay away from homerism. If you want a homer blog, I’ll find one for you. But that’s not what I’m all about.
Comment Policy Violation
Vance, I deleted your comment as it violates my commenting policy. But just from me to you, the other two major moves I analyzed (I didn’t do a formal write-up of the Church-Francoeur swap, but I would’ve given it a glowing review), I’ve said very good things about.
http://capitolavenueclub.com/?p=284
http://capitolavenueclub.com/?p=281
And I’ve said good things about this one. So I don’t know what your beef is. The post I made when the trade was first reported was a knee-jerk reaction and I hadn’t taken the time to analyze it. I was simply upset the Braves didn’t maximize value. Upon further review, I concluded that–even though resources weren’t allocated in an optimal fashion–it’s not nearly as bad as I originally thought it was. Was it a mistake to write that post? Possibly. I’m not apologizing for it, though. Those were my initial feelings.
I do appreciate your input, but please email me something like that rather than posting it in a comment. I don’t condone anything that portrays me or my website badly or input as to how to run my site in the comments section.
Carry on. With baseball (and general bad taste) talk only in the comments section.