Eric O’Flaherty Is Out Of Control
May 10, 2012 at 4:50 pm by Kevin Orris under Atlanta Braves
Last season, Eric O’Flaherty led all Major League relievers with a 0.98 ERA. Per the Braves Media Guide, his ERA was the lowest in Major League history of any pitcher to make 75 or more appearances.
This season, O’Flaherty’s ERA has increased to 6.35. Below is a table of other metrics where EOF has regressed:
|
|
K% |
BB% |
K/BB |
BABIP |
HR/FB% |
LOB% |
ERA |
FIP |
xFIP |
|
2009 |
16.5 |
7.6 |
2.17 |
.292 |
4.2 |
72.4 |
3.04 |
3.45 |
4.11 |
|
2010 |
19.9 |
9.9 |
2.00 |
.282 |
7.1 |
79.0 |
2.45 |
3.33 |
3.51 |
|
2011 |
22.3 |
7.0 |
3.19 |
.274 |
3.9 |
92.3 |
0.98 |
2.54 |
3.05 |
|
2012 |
18.2 |
10.9 |
1.67 |
.361 |
22.2 |
72.9 |
6.35 |
5.33 |
4.12 |
|
Career |
18.1 |
8.5 |
2.13 |
.297 |
5.9 |
74.4 |
3.28 |
3.51 |
3.97 |
And some more:
|
|
WPA |
O-Swing% |
Z-Swing% |
O-Contact% |
Z-Contact% |
Zone% |
|
2009 |
0.29 |
28.9 |
64.0 |
63.8 |
88.0 |
49.5 |
|
2010 |
0.76 |
31.5 |
62.9 |
59.5 |
87.6 |
46.6 |
|
2011 |
2.51 |
33.0 |
69.5 |
57.8 |
89.6 |
44.0 |
|
2012 |
-0.37 |
41.2 |
60.3 |
69.4 |
85.4 |
36.4 |
|
Career |
1.87 |
30.6 |
66.3 |
60.3 |
87.6 |
47.2 |
Each of these numbers comes from FanGraphs.com, which also provides a handy glossary for your perusal. In short, O’Flaherty has regressed across the board.
Entering 2012, most analysts expected him to regress (a 3.9 HR/FB%, 92.3 LOB% and two-point ERA to xFIP differential are nearly impossible to maintain), though you would be hard pressed to find someone expecting such a drastic difference.
Perhaps the most important number is his Zone % (the amount of pitches he throws in the strike zone), which has declined to a career low 36.4%. For reference, Roy Halladay’s career Zone % is 50.6. Tim Hudson’s is just 0.3 higher. It would be nearly impossible for O’Flaherty to maintain such a low percentage and get batters out at the same time.
That being said, I took a look at Pitch F/X, which is pretty sporadic for O’Flaherty in 2012. Brooks Baseball says he has been throwing his sinker more this season, while Tru Media claims he has thrown just one sinker this season. Talk about confusing. Let’s go with Brooks on this one, considering MLB Gameday also considers O’Flaherty to throw a majority of sinkers.
I went back and reviewed pitches from a few of O’Flaherty’s most recent appearances and didn’t struggle to reach a conclusion: he has lost his command. As you’ll see in the screenshots below, the catcher will set up looking for a pitch in the zone, but O’Flaherty’s tendency to throw hard stuff up and in against left handed batters mixed with the arm-side run of his sinker aren’t helping him throw strikes.
The following three sets of picture are from 5/2/2012 against the Philadelphia Phillies. They are the first three pitches O’Flaherty threw against Ty Wigginton (sinker, slider, sinker):
(Note: The green line is parallel across all three images from where the catcher’s glove starts and the red lines are vertical to help show the target’s position relative to home plate.)
Okay, so it may be a small sample size. Why not check his most recent appearance on 5/8/2012 against the Chicago Cubs? Though he missed with quite a few pitches, I have only presented a screenshot of his first offering – a sinker – to Ian Stewart.
I am not here to criticize or attempt to adjust O’Flaherty’s mechanics. If I were able to provide help on that front, I would have a job beyond freelance writing. The fact of the matter is that O’Flaherty is struggling to command, much less control his pitches this season and it hasn’t led to many positive results. In the short run, one might suggest he returns to his four-seam offering a bit more.
If the numbers say anything about his 2012 campaign, he has suffered poor fortune, all the while lacking success. Assuming one of the two turn around, we should begin to see the O’Flaherty we all witnessed in 2009 and 2010.
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Awesome
Doesnt the BABIP number suggest that EOF has also been somewhat unlucky this year?
That and HR/FB% are both really unlucky. HR/FB is usually around 12% for starters, but even lower for relievers. His sub-4 number last year is impossible to sustain, but 22+ is crazy unlucky. That should regress quite a bit to a single-digit number within a month or two.
That HR/FB% is the most telling of his struggles this year. Of course, he hasn’t given up Durbin-like numbers for homeruns, but he’s basically averaging just under 1 in every 4 FB’s being a homerun.
To me, that just means when he’s missing, he misses over the plate instead of off the plate like he did last year.
Considering that this article (nice job btw) is about EoF’s command issues maybe that should be considered when evaluating his BABIP and HR/FB%. It seems that if he is getting in to a lot of 2-0, 3-1 and 3-2 counts that he would have to resort to throwing pitches that get more of the plate.
His rates are high and I would also expect some regression, but if a pitcher is forced to throw more pitches over the heart of the plate just to get back in a count it seems like hitters could jump on these pitches and make better contact.
Based on leverage indices and WPA, is it fair to say that based on how the Braves use Durbin vs how they use EOF that based on performance EOF has been more detrimental to the Braves in the first 5 weeks of 2012 than Durbin?
So basically we can expect his stats to improve dramatically from their current Linebrink levels but need to realize that last years figures were the exception as oppose to the normal? Love this analysis, I am still learning some of the stats quoted on here but there is some great pieces that make it easy for us to learn as we go along. Keep it coming guys and just accept that Fredi will roll me out all the way to the world series.
I think what is most concerning about EOF’s control issues is that he’ll throw 5 or 6 straight balls or more and then turn around and strikeout the next guy on 3 pitches. He goes from bad to good back to bad just like flipping a light switch within a single outing.
if he is used primarily against lefties he should be fine.
Yet another evidence of how sabermetrics are utterly useless.
EOF’s fastball has gone from 94 to 89. I dont need sabermetrics and a 3 paragraph diatribe to tell me why he is getting lit up like a firecracker.
Butter Baller,
Where are you getting your info? His velocity is down 1.16 MPH from last year, according to BrooksBaseball.net.
Butterballs – I, unlike you, enjoyed the soon-to-be college graduate Kevin Orris’ post. I especially loved the “3 paragraph diatribe” (which I think is actually 10?) with its accompaniment of “charts & graphs.” Amazed these kids have time for drinking with all this “school” and “blogging whatnot.” But I digress.
It doesn’t matter how fast you pitch, as hitters will eventually get their timing down and crush you. What matters in pitching is what matters in real estate: location, location, location.
Tom Glavine, our beloved 3rd announcer & possibly the greatest Braves LHP ever (Sorry, Warren Spahn…but I hate Milwaukee) consistently pitched in the sub 85 mph range. Tom Glavine, a future HOFer, pitched slower than EOF….but…but….HOW IS THAT POSSIBLE????
Simple explanation, butterballs. Its all about location, location, location….and Kevin did a fantastic job of highlighting this in his post.
I love Tommy Glavine. Just thinking about how he shut down the Indians in game 6 brings tears to my eyes. I grew up in ATL but lived in BOS at the time. I remember driving through Concord/Billerica waving a Braves banner in honor of him.
EOF has never averaged 94 mph on his fastball in the majors. EOF’s average fastball this season is 90.6 mph. Last season it was 91.6. His change-up is actually faster this season at 87.3 than it was last season at 85.8. It’s the fastest average change-up he’s ever had in the majors. EOF isn’t getting nearly as much horizontal movement on his pitches across the board this season. I got my numbers from Fangraphs.
Dusty, don’t you have arms to amputate?
Just wanted to address all you Lowe-haters out there. Just look at him now. The truth is, we can’t score last year. A pitcher like Lowe is most effective with a lead (most pitchers are). Look at where our pitching is now. Where is JJ? The young guns, although full of potential, are largely unproven and inconsistent. Look at the team ERA and rankings. Sure could use a guy like Lowe now. Imagine having the pitching from last year and the bats from this year. We’d be the best in baseball. Instead, the fans traded him away for nothing.
Derek Lowe had a killer start to last season too if you remember. But once the weather got hot Lowe got horrible.
We’ll see my friend, we’ll see. Just remember this post as I will. We’ll see.
To me, Derek Lowe has always been a decent to good pitcher. The stats support this and he even has had some great years (eg 2002 Red Sox, 2008 Dodgers). My issue with Lowe has always been his relative value.
If I’m paying you $15M a year, I want you to perform as a low end ace – you don’t need to be great all the time, but I need you to be great some of the time. When you aren’t great, I need you to be good….and simply put, Derek Lowe doesn’t do that. He cycles from good to great to good to decent to being a borderline DFA candidate. I just can’t handle paying a pitcher $15M a year for a decent to good season. At $15M a year I want a good to great season.
This inconsistency is an issue for me and thus I will always dislike Derek Lowe. Now if Lowe produces this year with the Indians, then they are getting a steal at $5M as FW is picking up $10M of that $15M. But I concur with FW’s decision to pay Lowe $10M to *NOT* be a Brave…better to cut bait than miss the playoffs this year.