Game 35: Braves 7, Cardinals 4
May 14, 2012 at 1:17 am by Kevin Orris under Atlanta Braves
Source: FanGraphs
Game MVP: Jason Heyward, .294
Most Valuable Cardinal: Rafael Furcal, .160
Least Valuable Cardinal: Victor Marte, -.145
Least Valuable Brave: Tommy Hanson, -.065
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Sorry, Kevin, but this was game 35, I think. There was no post for 7-2 win in the middle game of the series.
Kevin graduated and Ben had finals for grad-school. Seeing as I was just in both of their shoes just 1 year ago, I’m willing to cut them some slack.
missed you guys over the weekend. hope everything is okay.
I didn’t realize EO’s era was that high.
Surprised to see Hanson have a negative WPA for going 5+ and only allowing 1 run. I didn’t watch the game so I don’t know if he had any crucial at bats that were unproductive, but I would imagine that plays less into a pitcher’s value.
The fact that the Braves LVP was Hanson at -.065 says a lot though! Braves hitters stepped it up.
You’re actually half right. Hanson scored -.005 as a pitcher, for the reasons NickC gives below, but compiled a -.060 hitting WPA in two ABs, mostly on the strength of his groundout in the 4th with Ross at third and one out.
Heyward took most of the WPA available to Hanson, who then left with a 2 run lead, 2 men on and none out.
On Twitter, I was reading Franklin’s comments on Heyward’s plate discipline and some holes in his swing. I noticed some of this as well, but I must commend him on two at-bats he had against Lynn early in the game. The first turned into an 8-9 pitch walk and the second was a bases clearing double after fouling off 3-4 pitches with a full count. I believe that second at-bat went 11 pitches.
Scott Coleman went on to say that he thinks that a lot of the at-bats that Heyward shows less patience are the lower leverage, non-critical situations (“garbage time”). I wonder how true this is.
Jon – I don’t know if theres an easy stat to see Heywards garbage time production (even though I’m sure someone could do the analysis over 37 games) but I tend to agree with you. Yesterday, Heyward showed little, if any plate discipline when he struck out late in the game. That K was in stark contrast to his 8-9 pitch BB & 11-12 pitch 3 RBI 2B earlier in the game.
I dont think theres a direct stat to see this though….but I assume one could analyze the leverage vs Heywards performance.
Not sure about plate discipline, but Heyward’s production in high-leverage situations is very bad, though it could be due to poor luck. His slash line is .150/.292/.200/.492 with a BABIP of .214. He does his best in medium-leverage situations by far, where he’s likely been getting very lucky (.385 BABIP).
This may be SSS, but one thing I notice is his on-base skills are better the higher the leverage. In low-leverage situations, his OBP-BA is .101. In medium, .103. In high, .142. This could also be due to Pastornicky and the pitcher batting directly behind him in most games. To wit, 2 of his 8 BB in high-leverage situations were intentional.
Number of pitches used on the following batters from yesterday’s game:
Bourn – 34 in 5 PA’s
Jason – 28 in 5 PA’s
Freeman – 27 in 5 PA’s (this has to be a personal best)
Bourn’s 34 is just nasty.
On the possibility of Heyward’s possible focus fluctuations: I’d rather he be patiently determined when it matters most and impatiently aggressive when it (apparently) doesn’t than vice versa. Of course, it’d be better not to have to choose. At any rate, I hope we’re wrong. If we’re not, hopefully it’s merely a sign of the man’s youth.
Congrats on graduation Kevin!!! I know feeling of relief.
However, I just read a headline from my Onion calender, “New College Graduates To Be Cryogenically Frozen Until Job Market Improves.” Haha. I hope this situation doesn’t apply to you.
Or perhaps you should go get another degree. Everytime you graduate, we sweep the defending champs on the road.
Either way, Congrats!
“Everytime you graduate, we sweep the defending champs on the road.”
Eh, SSS
Touche’. But who cares? Let Kevin feel good about helping the Braves sweep.
Haha, just a little joke… I agree Kevin should get as many degrees as he would like. Hopefully the Braves won’t need to be sweeping defending champs on the road for his next degree because THEY will be the defending champs.