Beware of just ‘correcting’ the Braves’ ERA/FIP Ratio
May 14, 2012 at 12:13 pm by Franklin Rabon under Atlanta Braves
One thing I’ve heard a few stat-y people talk about with the Braves starting pitching has been the staff being unlucky. Usually they will trot out the fact that the Braves pitching staff currently sports one of the 10 worst FIP/ERA ratios in MLB (it was in the bottom three until the last game of the Cardinals series). On its face this sounds reasonable, as we always think that individual pitchers with extremely large or small ERA/FIP ratios will regress back to the mean (by definition the mean ERA/FIP ratio is 1) because for individual pitchers over small samples, large deviations are usually a function of luck more than anything else.
While there is more than likely quite a bit of poor luck going on here, sometimes as SABR inclined commentators, we have to remember what the stats we’re using are actually capturing. FIP is just that, Fielding Independent Pitching. So while the pitching staff may very well be pitching better than their results would indicate, that’s not the same as saying that the team’s run prevention (and thus their ERA) has been unlucky.
When evaluating individual pitchers and their value, which is primarily what FIP is used for, it’s perfectly fine to discount the defense that is playing behind them. You don’t want to punish the pitcher because he has a crappy defense, and you don’t want to reward a junkballer because he has an all-world defense either. Doing so is useful in two ways, A) you throw out the defense, and B) you throw out a lot of the bad luck pitchers get on batted balls in the field of play. However, when saying that the pitcher’s ERA should correct itself to its FIP, you not only should consider the defense, you in fact must evaluate the defense’s impact on the pitcher turning balls in play into outs.
What we know about the Braves defensively is that the outfield defense is pretty excellent, especially when it is Prado, Bourn and Heyward. But the infield defense is likely right up there with the worst in the game. Chipper is smooth, but has non-existent range, Pastornicky gets bad breaks and positions himself oddly often, Uggla is Uggla, and Freeman is like Chipper’s mirror, with perhaps even less range somehow. While a poor defense is oftentimes difficult to capture statistically, especially in small sample sizes, we do know what ‘damage’ it should cause, namely a large RA/FIP ratio. Figuring out exactly where the Braves defense lands is difficult because of how divergent the infield and outfield defenses are in quality. Infield defense is almost certainly more important than outfield defense, but just how much more important is an open question in the SABR community.
What portion of the Braves staff’s ERA/FIP ratio is bad luck and what part is poor defense? It is almost impossible to tell at this point. Right now they’re giving up about 7-10% more earned runs than their FIP would tend to indicate they should. Which though it may sound small, is actually a pretty huge number when played out over a full season. That’s a number that would likely prevent the Braves from reaching the playoffs if they keep it up. If 4% of it is bad luck, and the rest is bad defense, the Braves can perhaps live with it. However, I think given what we know about the defense, it’s a bit polly-anna-ish to think the ERA/FIP ratio will just ‘regress to the mean’ itself away. One thing does remain clear: if the Braves miss the playoffs, poor infield defense will likely be more to blame than anything Fredi does or doesn’t do.
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Oddly enough, Beachy and Hanson have allowed a lower rate of fly balls than they have previously in their MLB careers (now that the OF defense is better and the IF defense is much worse). I wouldn’t be surprised if their fly ball rates creeps back up. Also, the bullpen has the 2nd highest GB% among all MLB bullpens (with Venters it’s not too much of a shock, but at this point in the season O’Flahrety and Medlen are allowing more GBs than usual). I’d bet both the rotation and bullpen won’t keep allowing GBs at this rate and the team’s Defensive Efficiency improves. Still don’t ever see the ERA matching the FIP, though.
THe problem with that, is that even given how much better our outfield defense is, its still better for a pitcher to have a higher groundball rate.
ie the pitchers raising their GB/FB rate is a good thing, just not as good as it should be.
Nice analysis Frank. Question though… as you said, it might still be too early to truly estimate if the numbers are going to regress or continue, but isn’t the lack of a quality infield defense somewhat offset by only having one true ground ball pitcher (Huddy)?
Of course, the rest of the pitchers in the rotation are going to induce plenty of ground balls, so if the trend continues, do you foresee some type of move made to strengthen the infield defense?
Right on. Luckily guys like Delgado, Beachy, Minor and Hanson are flyball pitchers. Not so lucky for Huddy.
As a side note, Pastornicky and Wilson have combined for -0.7 WAR because Tyler can’t field and Jack can’t hit. Meanwhile, former Braves Rafael Furcal and Elvis Andrus have combined for 4.0 WAR. Other former Braves Yunel Escobar and Alex Gonzales have combined for a more modest, but decidedly non-negative, 1.0 WAR. It’s probably for the best the last two guys are elsewhere though.
Gonzo tore his ACL, he’s done for the year.
Why are you combining the WAR of players on different teams?
I don’t see why that matters, I’m just illustrating how good Andrus and Furcal are this year.
Sucks for Gonzo.
Since when has Freddie Freeman had poor range at 1B? His problem is more placement then range. He’s young and still building instincts to read where the hitter will most likely drive the ball. His smooth fielding and exceptional range make up for that. How many 6’5” people do you know that can do a split to stay on the bag and grab a ball out of the dirt? Though he can’t be that bad at placement since he leads all 1B in FPCT, TC, PO, DP, and has a RF above 9. Even with all the inherent flaws in each of those said individual stats. Together they paint a picture of a guy that gets to the ball on a regular bases.
Your comment lost all of its validity the moment you typed “exceptional range” Freeman is a statue out there.
True. Freddie Freeman has no range. The Braves infield defense is a disaster. None of the fielders have any range at all, Uggla has trouble making throws, and Pastornicky needs work. I foresee the infield defense continuing to be a problem as the year progresses with the sad thing being that there is no way any chances can be made because all those players are entrenched in the lineup and productive at the plate.
The split thing isn’t that relevant. In “scoop” situations, Freeman knows where the ball is and more or less where it’s going. “Range” is a term of art that encompasses reacting immediately and appropriately to batted balls by getting one’s body in position to make the play and the glove in front of the ball. Freddie is not good at that.
Derrick Lee, Pujols, Teixeira, Morneau, Adrian Gonzalez. All range from 6’2″-6.5″ 210-230 lbs.
I don’t have much constructive to ADD. However, I did feel it appropriate to commend you on this article. I really did enjoy it and found it very thought provoking. I’m sure I’ll get into some arguments with other braves fans after bringing up the topics of this article. I guess a little deserved praise and flattery can’t hurt.
For 2013, if the Braves brought up Simmons for SS, moved Pastor to 2nd, moved Prade to 3rd, and moved Uggla out to LF – would they then have slightly above average infield defense?
Maybe, but I can’t see Pastornicky hitting enough to stick at 2B.
I’d say Pastor is holding his own thus far, he obviously doesn’t have the frame to be much of a power hitter but if he continues to develop I could see him being able to spray the ball down the lines and in to gaps and collect a lot of doubles. 2B really isn’t a heavy hitting position these days, 5-7 guys being elite hitters at the position, I think he could be average for the position.
I’ve seen this brought up time and time again on the boards and the bloggers along with myself and some other chatters got into a nearly full 1 hour discussion during a ST game chat session. Yet, Uggla has never even played LF in his major league career. Sure his defense is less than stellar at 2B, but with Gattis already being groomed for LF what advantage does this give the team besides a SLIGHTLY better infield?
For the love of god, why does this idea keep coming up over and over again?
It keeps coming up over and over again because LF is probably the least demanding defensive position. For a guy who is athletic, it’s not hard to learn. Had Chipper ever played any LF before they decided to just start running him out there one year?
Anyway, I’d be interested to hear your alternative solution to the Uggla conundrum. 1B? Then where do you stick Freddie? No credit for “keep him at 2B as he gets older and lousier.”
To answer my own question: Chipper logged just over 200 innings in LF prior to becoming the Braves’ full-time left fielder in 2002. The majority of those innings came in 1995.
You see infield statues shifted to the outfield literally every season. They often don’t make good defensive outfielders, but they’re playable. What makes you think Uggla is the exception?
Never said Uggla was the exception. But tell me, what exactly are we gaining? You are essentially weakening the outfield defense while only making the infield defense marginally (and that’s a maybe) better.
Last time I checked, we’re 22-13… 22-9 if you exclude the bat-less first 4 games. Why change what’s working?
Weakening outfield defense in order to almost certainly boost infield defense (come on, don’t give me this “maybe” Pastornicky would be an upgrade over Uggla…). Infield defense is considerably more important to run prevention. That’s a win.
And re: current record: the proposal is for 2013, when no matter what the Braves will have to shift bodies around to cover the losses of Chipper and Bourn. So even if it is “working” now (and it’s the whole point of this post to point out that it’s not so clear it is working), it probably won’t be next year.
So you honestly believe that Pastornicky is a better option than Uggla in the infield?
Let’s see what Baseball Reference has to say about that shall we?
So far this year, Uggla has been worth 0 in defensive runs saved this year while Pastor has been worth -11. Making Uggla on pace for, you guessed it, 0 and Pastor on pace for a whopping -60. Uggla’s average year for that same stat is a poor -6. Pastor? Well he’s already surpassed Uggla’s average.
Also… Pastor, at 3.07, is well below the league average in range factor per game at 4.27. Uggla (at 5.00), on the other hand, is slightly above league average (4.84).
Yet again, I’m not saying Uggla is a great infielder, but neither is Pastor. There is no “maybe” Pastor is better. In fact, he would be worse.
As far as 2013 is concerned, do you honestly think we got Francisco for a simple 1 year lease to platoon with Chipper? Do you honestly think they’re grooming Gattis in the minors because they plan on moving Uggla to LF? With the season that Bourn is having, do you really think the Braves won’t do everything they can to keep him? Thus letting Heyward stay in RF and not creating another hole?
Hate to break it to you, but moving Uggla to LF is NOT the solution to anything.
You do realize that:
a) you can’t use defensive statistics in such small samples sizes, and
b) you are cherry-picking in at least two ways, insofar as
1) UZR has Uggla as below average for this season, and
2) all the metrics have Uggla as way below average for his career, and
c) defensive metrics are scaled to position, and shortstop is a much more demanding defensive position than 2B
right?
Pastornicky’s numbers are from playing a much tougher position. You can’t compare Uggla’s 0 DRS to Pastornicky’s on equal footing.
Just imagine Uggla at SS. Do you picture him doing worse than Pastornicky or better?
Oh, and also (sorry, too annoyed about your mangling the defensive analysis to even read to the end of your comment originally):
Francisco ain’t no bridge to anyone or anything unless he turns it around in a big goddamn hurry on both sides of the ball. Right now, he’s looking like a full time pine rider, not a starter.
With Bourn having the kind of season he’s having, he’s 100% out of the Braves’ price range. So unless “everything they can to keep him” includes knocking over a few dozen banks, the CF hole is looming, whether Frank Wren likes it or no.
@Anon…
You do realize that your focusing on Uggla’s bad defense doesn’t lessen the fact that Pastor is also a bad infielder, right?
@Nick
See my comment below a couple posts
Nah only real place to put Uggla is LfF. Uggla can’t hurt us as bad defensively if he’s there. I think Franklin did a post on this towards the beginning of the season that shed more light on where to hide Uggla’s poor defense.
The notable exception to the “hide your worst defender in Left Field rule” is when Barry Bonds is in LF and Francisco Cabrera is PH’ing with slow ass Sid Bream on 2B.
Cabrera’s wpa on that hit was .737 per baseball reference. Also from BRef, that’s the highest wpa of any hitter in a post season sudden death game – ever.
And just in case you have that 3:30 feeling & need a pick me up, Sid Bream will oblige:
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=3251567
Pastornicky is probably a bad shortstop, but probably not as bad as some defensive statistics would say, given the sample size involved.
“Bad infielder” is a nonsense construction; there are four individual positions on the infield, and a guy can be great at one (e.g., first base) and helpless at any of the other 3. Pastornicky is probably a mediocre shortstop, but the fact that the Braves are even allowing him to play short for the big league club strongly suggests he’d be an average defensive second baseman.
We had Garret Anderson out there one year. Uggla would at least provide some offense.
We’re not talking about moving Uggla over to SS now are we? We’re talking about moving Pastor over to 2B and Uggla to LF. You guys are basically betting that Simmons at SS and Pastor are 2B is going to be some kind of savior to a poor overall infield defense while also weakening the defense in the outfield.
I’m missing what exactly that gives the team. If anything I can see trading away Pastor and someone else for a better 2B then moving Uggla to LF. And, that’s only assuming that the Braves don’t plan on keeping Francisco.
Oops replied to the wrong comment. My bad. Got this out of order now :(
If Uggla > Pastornicky at 2B, then Uggla should also > Pastornicky at SS. So if you agree Uggla would be worse at SS than Pastornicky, then you should also agree he’d be worse at 2B. Both are below-average defenders at their position, but below-average SS routinely make at least average 2B.
To Michael:
First of all, just to preempt you, I both “honestly” and “really” think the things I’m about to say. Secondly, yes, Simmons at SS, Pastornicky at 2B, and Prado full-time at 3B would be a “savior” to an poor overall infield defense, since it would entirely revamp the infield defense in what I, and others, think would be a positive way.
I think the bigger question with this approach would be if the Braves can get enough offense out of Simmons and Pastornicky to have both their bats in the lineup.
@Stephen
I’ll give you that. In fact, my original response gave into the thought that the infield defense would be slightly better. Still, do the Braves make that type of a move and sacrifice power and slightly weaker outfield defense, especially considering Heyward is moving to CF?
I think not. Sorry guys.
And before anyone tries to conclude that I’m saying Heyward would not be a good CF’er, that’s not at all what I meant.
I meant move Heyward to CF opens up a hole in RF that would likely have to be filled by a replacement level type player.
Well, you guys keep holding your breath until they stick him in LF. I’ll go ahead and call the coroner’s office for you ;)
And Cunny… thanks for the 3:30 (well 2:30 here) pick me up!
Yeah, I don’t love the idea of moving Heyward to CF. I think he plays an exceptional RF, and would probably be a fine CF’er. But I would be a little concerned about what I would think is an increased injury risk in playing center versus right (can anyone tell me if this is a legitimate concern or not?). Also, considering how important the CF position is, I would like to get someone who can really tear it up out there.
For all I know, though, Francisco could finish the year strong, and we could have an outfield of Prado-Hewyard-Gattis next year. ;)
It may not be an opinion shared by very many other than me, but I think Francisco is our 3B for at least the foreseeable future
I’m just going to add that I hate the idea of moving Heyward to CF. CF’s seem to deal with more injuries than almost any position and quite frankly I would hate to see him deal with any more injuries than he has already in his career, leave him and his arm (he makes that RF-3B throw very well) in the corner.
Also regarding Uggla vs Pastor at 2B, Defensive sabrmetrics aside I know what I can SEE, and Uggla plain and simple has a really hard time turning the DP, hes actually quite terrible at it. Though since his arm is essentially a wet noodle out there might as well leave him be for now but I think we trade him before his contract is up to the AL.
For next year though, and I know the CAC guys did an article on this last year when Chipper was struggling, Prado won’t be any kind of savior over at third, quite frankly I have my fingers crossed for Terdoslavich, Salcedo, or Drury can find there way to get there (though this latter 2 are at least 2 years away).
Open question though: Anyone know how Pastor might play in CF next year? or even how Simmons could play there?
Oh yah… Pastor is DEFINITELY a better fielder than Uggla. Use the 4th inning as an example. *sarcasm* :)
Hey, he fielded the ball just fine!
Haha right! He just forgot what color jersey Atlanta wears. ;)
Anon’s solution is obviously superior. If you believe that Uggla is a better defensive 2b than Pastornicky would be, you are clearly crazy. Also Anon is right that just about any player in the major leagues could play LF.
Having a superior defensive SS is incredibly valuable, and I don’t think it would have to be Simmons. Why not trade for Brendan Ryan? All this being said, I think this was considered a year ago when we initially signed Uggla and had a logjam at 2nd with Prado, and the Braves basically nixed it because Uggla was unwilling to move. And I suspect that has not changed.
Great article. I think they is some reason to also say that the change in approach by Beachy, as well as the inconsistency by Minor lead to the idea that the Braves can’t expect things to just revert back to numbers until the results are actually there. While it’s safe to say that based on history it is likely the pitching will improve from a numbers standpoint, however one area I seem to fell is lacking is the relief pitching. I would be interested to see numbers this year compared to last year. I know you guys already broke down EOF’s command issues but I feel like the Braves are giving up more runs later in ballgames than last year. Of course that could just be the sour taste of Martinez giving up the Home Run in the 9th.
For what it’s worth… Braves have gotten 0.8 fWAR out of their relievers to this point, which is middle of the pack. The bullpen sports a 3.62 FIP (9th in MLB) and a 3.46 xFIP (6th in MLB). (I’m not even joking when I say that FIP-xFIP split is mostly the result of xFIP thinking it’s not even possible that anyone could be quite as “good” at giving up dingers as Da Durb has been to this point.)
For comparison, in 2011 the Braves got 6.9 fWAR from their pen, third in MLB and first in the NL by a ton. The bullpen had a preposterous 3.19 FIP (1st in MLB) and a 3.33 xFIP (again, first in MLB). If Scott Proctor’s innings had been allocated instead to a replacement-level relief pitcher, the Braves would have been at least tied for first in all three categories.
So it’s not your imagination. This incarnation of the Braves’ relief staff is not nearly as good as last year’s. I’ll leave it up to others to break down more specifically what combination of regression from our elite guys versus innings going to Durbin and Hernandez is the causal agent here.
I would say it is safe to bet on splitting the difference between bad luck and bad defense. Pastornicky looked atrocious earlier in the season but seems to have settled down a lot. Even on routine plays, he charges as hard as he can and throws the ball to first as hard as he can, getting the runner out by a mile while almost throwing the ball away. And so far I’ve been enjoying Simmons’ numbers in AA.
Hmmmm….
If Bourn leaves and Gattis keeps hitting, why not just spend the money on BJ Upton and stick him in CF (he will perhaps cost the same as Chipper or a bit less)
Go with:
Hewyard, Upton Gattis in the OF
and leave Uggla at 2nd, Prado on 3rd and ,if Pastornicky hits, him at SS?
I hate to say it, but I would rather have Blauser at SS than the Pac Man, and watching Simmons hit in the spring reminded me of the Pac Man
I know this is unrealistic but how nice would it be if the braves let bourn go and use the money from him chipper and dlowe and go out and get josh Hamilton.
Wait, are we trashing Freeman’s defense here? I think he holds his own over there and seems to (not so much to his right) have good range.
Love the Uggla is Uggla. And, I do feel that we have a SS that is supposed to be “all defense and any offense is a plus” whose defense isn’t all that great. (Where are you Simmons?) And, a second baseman who is all offense and “any defense he give us is a plus.” Very strange for a middle infield.
If we’re talking 2013, let’s talk whole team….big view. Chipper is gone. 95% sure that Bourn will be gone as he was too expensive before this season, & now that he’s killing it, there’s no way we can afford Bore-ass prices. Mac is 50/50. Hate to be “the guy” that brings it up, but he’s among the top 3 catchers in MLB (w/Mauer & Molina). He may be willing to give us a hometown discount, but maybe not.
So we could easily be replacing 3 starters, which means trading some of that starting pitching.
Heyward in CF? No thanks – he’s too big, can’t cover enough ground & too prone to injury. Plus he’s an incredible RF – why move him? Francisco at 3rd? Ugggghhhh(la).
So the prior posts re moving Uggs to LF, Pastor to 2B and Simmons to SS seem very real & viable. Add an above avg Prado to 3rd & suddenly you have a very good (defensive) infield. And if Pastor & Simmons take a while to hit, so be it….Prado & Freddie can pick up the slack.
In this scenario, we now need a CF and a C. Former is a lot easier to replace than the latter, so I’m not that concerned about an inability to trade a solid SP for a CF. We have lots of them to part with. Austin Jackson? Adam Jones? even Cameron Maybin. All of those teams need another solid starter & would listen.
Replacing Mac? Well your guess is as good as mine. I’m all ears.
If Mac leaves, the job becomes Betancourt’s five seconds later.
McCann is not a free agent for 2013, the braves have a 12mil option, that they will pick up. he is a FA for the 2014 season.
God I love this website. I have nothing of value to add, just wanted to leave you with that. Love the analysis.