Patience is Key for Mike Minor and Braves
May 17, 2012 at 5:05 pm by David Lee under Atlanta Braves, Player Analysis
A certain left-hander out of Vanderbilt has been having some issues lately, as you may have heard.
Ben basically lays Mike Minor’s problems out here for FanGraphs. He mentions the extreme difference in ERA and FIP, the left on base numbers, the numbers from the stretch, and finishes with the conclusion that a larger sample size is needed before the excuses run out.
Minor’s peripherals remind us that patience is needed. He actually has a higher strikeout rate this year than over his 82.2 innings last season, currently at 21.7%. His walk rate is also much lower at 7.4%. He has allowed eight home runs, so his HR/FB is through the roof at 14.3%. But seven of those long balls have come in his last four starts, where he has allowed at least six runs in each outing.
Put this all together and you have an ERA of 7.09 and an xFIP of 3.81. The difference is quite large, and I am a believer of fielding independent numbers teaching a lesson of patience when it comes to situations like this.
But also, Minor’s left on base percentage is 52.7%, which is the second lowest in all of baseball behind Chris Volstad’s. One would think such an extremely high number of runs scored in such situations would regress over the course of a season, and the main factor in this assumption is his peripherals have remained strong.
As gondeee discovered at Talking Chop today, Minor’s numbers indicate a major split between his windup and pitching from the stretch.
“That prompted me to look up some splits this morning, specifically Minors splits with runners on and with the bases empty, and lo and behold the difference is frightening:
Minor in 2012 with bases empty: .226/.282/.339 … .621 OPS
Minor in 2012 with runners on: .422/..461/.766 … 1.226 OPS
This leads me to believe that Minor’s mechanics out of the stretch, when runners are on base, are out of whack somehow. This is further supported by his numbers last year, which show just the opposite…”
I know my limitations in the area of pitching mechanics, so I won’t pretend to watch video of Minor and discover mechanical flaws from the stretch. However, the numbers TC provided show that it’s either another case of small sample size, or something is really up with Minor from the stretch. Numbers don’t lie, and right now they point toward Minor having issues in that area.
Then, there’s also the point that Minor’s last three starts, in which he has allowed 20 runs in 14.1 innings, have unraveled over one or two innings in each start. Against the Rockies, he allowed six of eight runs in two innings. Against the Cardinals, he allowed five of six runs in one inning. Against the Marlins, he allowed all six runs in two innings.
Fredi Gonzalez harped on this in his postgame quotes on Wednesday, indicating that things seem to unravel on Minor in one- or two-inning stints. This ties in to Minor’s inability to get outs with runners on base.
All signs point toward the Braves being patient with Minor for now, perhaps seeing the same numbers as Ben, gondeee and I have mentioned today. Four unraveled starts should not be the death of a pitcher as talented as Minor, especially at his age.
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sounds like maybe the Braves should think bout maybe think bout either trading Minor or sending him down and bringing back Jair.
You don’t draft a guy with you #1 pick and then kick him to the curb after 4 bad starts in a row when he’s 24 yrs old. Sure, he could use some innings in Gwinnett. But take away his last four starts and anyone that said he should be traded would be hung out to dry by all of us. We may well end up getting rid of him, but it won’t (and it shouldn’t) be anytime soon.
Well, I guess it would depend on who you’d get in the trade. But I don’t think Minor would return the value of what he could potentially be based on his peripherals.
Patience would be acceptable if the Braves had no other options. The Braves do have other option, plenty of them. Teheran, JJ, Medlen, Livan, Redmond all come to mind. They may or may not have better results, but Minor doesn’t have the track record to warrant patience.
Medlen seems like the best option to me.
Nice piece again, puts some logic on things and plenty to think about.
The difference between ERA and xFIP is certainly telling – his numbers will get better as the season progresses – no change is needed. Certainly, a tweek with his stretch may be warranted.
Minor may not have a sufficient track record to warrant patience, but he has more than sufficient upside to warrant patience. The braves could sacrifice his future over a bad four-game stretch, but that would be extremely short-sighted. He deserves more starts, and the FIP numbers prove it.
Good article, David.
The fish are marooned on the beach. what will this do to the kid? fanfuckintastic!! So sweet to watch his confidence keep growing.
And Big Mac called a great game for him
BEACHHEAD
Dear Mr Law…
Actually on EsPN baseball today podcast kLaw backtracked a little from his statements last year where he said beachy was nothing more than a 4-5 starter and said he sees more of 2-3 type starter and how it’s not as much beaches stuff but more his deceptive motion and location that allow him to be so effective.
Keith Law, upon the announcement of Brandon Beachy’s 2012 Cy Young Award: “Ok, ok, you’ve backed me into a corner… maybe he could be a #1 starter for a non-contending second division club.”
So we still have a big gap between ERA and xFIP, ok. But xFIP is rising vs 2011, so I guess technically our expectations should be lower? It’s obvious from just about any angle of analysis he still has a lot to work on. If the Braves can afford to let him work on it at this level, “good on ‘em” as they say. But if he is still having these results two months from now, he’ll be working on it in AAA as the Braves pursue the playoffs. Hope he comes around.
In regards to having trouble out of the stretch, I always noticed the same thing with Derek Lowe. He would be cruising along through the first 3-4 innings, then a few people would get on and the big inning would occur. Then it usually snowballed out of control from there. Don’t get me wrong though I’m not saying Minor is the same pitcher as Lowe though, I believe he’s facing the same problem that caused people to call Lowe inconsistent all these year.
Maybe Minor is tipping his pitches in the stretch.
The difference between Minor out of the stretch and not out of the stretch is very easy to see. When he is not pitching out of the stretch a majority of his pitches are down in the zone. When he is pitching out of the stretch everything seems to be between the belt and letters, and getting raked.
[...] struggles have been well documented, but Captiol Avenue Club has a good article preaching patience for the left-hander. His HR/FB rate is concerning, and pitching in Great [...]