Draft Signing Deadline Fallout – 1st Round
August 18, 2009 at 1:27 pm by Capitol Avenue Club under Draft, Prospects, Transactions
I know it’s stupid to name winners and losers this early. These kids just got drafted. Most of them haven’t played an inning of professional ball and none of them have made an appearance in MLB. But I’m going to do it anyway, because most of what I do here is similarly pointless. I do it because it entertains me. Hopefully it entertains you in the process.
So here we go. Winners and losers. 1st round of the 2009 MLB first year player (rule 4) draft.
Winners:
Stephen Strasburg. Gets $15.1 million guaranteed before he’s thrown a single professional pitch. If he blows out his arm in his first professional inning, he still gets $15.1 million.
Washington Nationals. They got their guy, the obvious one. And they paid less than most people expected them to. Rizzo really wants (and should get) that GM job. Plus, and this gets overlooked, they got a really interesting relief prospect in Drew Storen for only $1.6 million.
Cincinnati Reds. They get a polished college pitcher with a 4 pitch mix for a bonus of $2.27 million. Real Baseball Intelligence had Leake ranked one on their board. Yes, ahead of Strasburg.
Colorado Rockies. They selected arguably the 2nd best available player, Tyler Matzek, at pick number 11. And signed him for only $3.9 million. He was supposedly demanding “Rick Porcello money” pre-draft. He not only got about $3.1 million less than that, he got a bonus rather than a deal.
Oakland A’s. Grant Green! At pick number 12! For only $2.25 million (bonus)!! Yes, please!!!!
Jacob Turner. $5.5 million out of high school. The three comparable prep arms got $3.9 million, $2.9 million, and didn’t sign.
St. Louis Cardinals. If other teams knew Shelby Miller would sign for $2.9 million no way he makes it to pick #19.
Minnesota Twins. Kyle Gibson at $1.8 million is a steal. Despite the stress fracture.
Tampa Bay Rays. Levon Washington, who they failed to sign, isn’t anything too special for a first rounder and next year’s draft should be deeper.
Losers:
San Diego Padres. Donavan Tate has Jeff Francoeur written all over him.
Atlanta Braves. No doubt in my mind that if they knew some of the prep arms would lower their bonus demands they wouldn’t have taken Minor. This was the year to take a flyer on someone. For them. They haven’t had a pick that high since 1991 and likely won’t for awhile.
Aaron Crow. Dude, just sign. You’re not that cool, you’re just a guy. Now just sign so you can play baseball and quit with all the bullshit. (Note: Crow is not subject to the deadline, so he can still sign. And I expect him to.)
Cleveland Indians. Going over-slot on Alex White seems like a bit of a reach. Granted, they didn’t go way over-slot.
Texas Rangers. They took their guy, a Texas native and one of the top prep arms with a great deal of upside. Then failed to sign him. Purke is a special kind of talent and when you have a regional advantage you’ve gotta find a way to make it work.
Matt Purke. OK, good job, idiot. You’re now going to go to college and have some clueless pitching coach have you maxing out on squats daily and throwing 165 pitches the day after throwing an inning of relief. Thinking you’re going to increase your stock in 3 years of college is stupid. You may, but the chances are much higher that you won’t.
That’s all I got. Discuss. And remember to check out Bullpen Updates and follow me on twitter @CapitolAvenue.
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WRT Purke, it really depends on the pitching coach. Kids who come to Vanderbilt, for example, have a pretty good success rate as far as upping their value to MLB teams (see: Jeremy Sowers, Jensen Lewis, Ryan Mullins, David Price, Casey Weathers, Mike Minor, and Caleb Cotham; cf. Brett Jacobson), but that’s because Derek Johnson is one of the best pitching coaches in the college game.
I don’t know anything about TCU’s pitching coach. I just assume he doesn’t know what he’s doing, because more times than not, that’s the correct assumption. You do have a point, though.
By the way, I read that the Commish limited the Rangers’ bonus. They said the Rangers could only spend 2.3 million on the bonus. Just another dark spot on Selig’s draft resume.
Purke will be a draft eligible sophomore, so he will only be in college for two years.
Good call, Michael.
By the way, if any of the MLBTR traffic sees this and knows anything about TCU’s pitching coach, please contact me, because I’m interested.
How is Tampa Bay not a loser? They failed to sign both of their 1st 2 picks.
They get picks next year. And next year’s draft is deeper. I’m only addressing the 1st round in this piece, though. I don’t know anything about their 2nd rounder. Or even his name.
Pirates had a very good draft after reaching for Tony Sanchez with the #4 pick (although he’s played great so far after signing early). They got a few 1st round talent guys who were thought would be tough to sign due to college commitments in later rounds after shelling out big money for them.
Blue Jays didn’t sign 3 of their top 4 picks after ditching Alex Rios’ contract for nothing…not too good.
Oops…just saw the 1st round comment.
Heh, it’s cool. Your points are valid, though.
How about the whitesox locking up the College World Series MVP for under slot and drastically ahead of all these other signee’s? Jared Mitchell has a 150 at bat head start on all these guys and signing him for under slot with the way other guys were getting double that is a huge cuop for the sox!
Funny you said that. I was going to include them, but I’m just not sold on a 5’11″ OF. I do hope it works out for them, though.
Do you think Brett Wallace will be called-up in September for Oakland?
Maybe. It’s interesting. He’s raked since the trade, hitting .306/.361/.556 in AAA, but Beane likes for his prospects to walk in 10% of their PA’s. It used to be a hard and fast rule in Oakland’s farm system that you won’t be promoted if you don’t walk at least 10% of the time. Wallace’s BB% is less than 7 with Oakland and right at 6% for the year. He may get a cup of coffee. He’s not on their 40 man roster and his defense needs work. So probably not. But we’ll see.
Beane HAS to develop Wallace. And service time will be an issue, too.
Who are some September call-ups. That we should look out for?
Nothing too interesting in Atlanta’s organization, the one I know the best. You have to be on the 40-man roster to be a September call-up. I imagine Travis Snider (Blue Jays) and Cameron Maybin (Marlins) will be called up soon, and those are two very interesting prospects.
from the TCU website:
http://gofrogs.cstv.com/sports/m-basebl/mtt/mazey_randy00.html
Sounds like he’s had success with some decent programs. Still, I agree that his value was likely highest this year.
Would you care to elaborate on your Tate-Franceour comparison?
Tate oozes talent. Franceour was a one-dimensional player — swing only.
They’re both basically the same player. Their biggest asset is their athleticism in both cases. When Francoeur was drafted his swing was far from his biggest asset, he was a legit 5-tool prospect. But both extremely raw.