CAC’s Midseason Prospects: 1-10
July 16, 2012 at 8:50 am by Ethan Purser under Atlanta Braves
Here is a brief write-up for each of CAC’s top-10 midseason prospects. For context, here is our composite list. Keep an eye out for more on prospects 11-25 later this week. Please note ages are as of midnight on 6/30/2012.
1. Julio Teheran | RHP | 6’2”, 175 lb. | Age: 21
2012 has not been a kind year to Julio Teheran. After having a very successful 2011 in which he showed very real signs of becoming an ace sooner rather than later, Julio has struggled mightily in Triple-A Gwinnett, posting a 4.96 ERA/5.56 FIP in 81.2 IP. His inability to miss bats this year is quite alarming, as he has struck out only 16.1% of the batters he has faced. Julio has also allowed a whopping total of 15 (!) home runs in 2012. He still has the same frontline stuff he has possessed for years. Now, it’s just a matter of fine-tuning the feel for his breaking ball, the command of his fastball, and his delivery. Teheran is still very young for his level and has plenty of time to make the necessary adjustments. Failure is a fairly new concept to Julio, so be on the lookout for how he responds to this in the second half. Teheran’s considerable upside keeps him at the top of this list.
1. Andrelton Simmons | RH SS | 6’2”, 170 lb. | Age: 22
Until his recent injury, 2012 has been all but unkind to Andrelton Simmons. After nearly winning the shortstop job out of Spring Training, Simmons hit .292/.372/.421 in Double-A Mississippi in 200 plate appearances before being called up to Atlanta in June to take over for Tyler Pastornicky. Simmons has exceeded expectations both offensively and defensively, hitting .296/.336/.452 in 125 plate appearances while wowing spectators with his impressive defensive skillset and cannon for an arm. Simmons has all of the tools to be an above-average shortstop and has proven he belongs at the major league level. Once he returns to action, watch for the adjustments made by opposing pitchers in response to Andrelton’s hot start. The level at which he hits long-term is still in question, but his defense is what’s going to keep him in the majors for a long period of time.
3. Arodys Vizcaino | RHP | 6’0”, 190 lb. | Age: 21
After feeling discomfort in his elbow in the March 3rd Grapefruit League opener, Arodys Vizcaino underwent Tommy John surgery to repair a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow. Vizcaino’s elbow has been a problem in the past, so hopefully the surgery will put an end to his injury troubles. Arodys will not be ready to take the mound until 2013, so look for updates on his progression as the season continues. The debate continues as to whether his long-term destination is in the bullpen or in the starting rotation.
4. Sean Gilmartin | LHP | 6’2”, 190 lb. | Age: 22
Sean Gilmartin’s performance so far in 2012 can be summed up in three words: pretty dang solid. The 28th overall selection in the 2011 Rule 4 Draft has posted a 3.47 ERA/3.44 FIP in 109 innings for Double-A Mississippi. Gilmartin has shown plus control, walking slightly over 2 batters per 9 while striking out well above 6 batters per 9, leading to an impressive 3.24 K/BB. Sean has displayed the ability to consistently get lefties out (.208 OBP against), but has not shown the same knack for getting righties out (.324 OBP against).* Gilmartin possesses ridiculously sound mechanics and a good all-around arsenal, highlighted by a changeup that flashes plus. His fastball and curveball both project to be average to slightly above-average pitches down the road, leading to a ceiling of a mid-rotation starter if you believe in the breaking ball. Look for Gilmartin to continue to do well in Double-A, progressing to Gwinnett for the 2013 season.
*This is nitpicking.
5. Lucas Sims | RHP | 6’2”, 195 lb. | Age: 18
Sims, the 21st overall pick in the 2012 Rule 4 Draft, began his professional career with a bang, striking out 10 batters in 7 innings of work while only allowing 2 hits for the GCL Braves. After being promoted to Danville, Sims made his debut Saturday and struck out 2, walked 1, and allowed 0 runs in 2.1 innings of work. Sims brings a three-pitch mix to the table, highlighted by a low-to-mid-90s fastball that he has pumped up to the upper-90s on occasion. He also features a downer curve and a very well developed changeup for a high school arm. Sims has an athletic delivery and does a good job of leading with his hips toward home plate. He will occasionally pull off with his lead shoulder, causing his head to jerk and his body to fall off toward first base, and while he does a decent job of getting extended out front, there is room for improvement in this regard. Sims’ arm action is a bit longer than one would like to see and he can sometimes over-stride, which causes problems in the amount of separation he achieves between his upper and lower halves. Lucas does not have the quickest tempo out of the gate, but explodes in the second half of his delivery into footplant. Sims is a bit undersized for a right-handed pitcher, which, along with the slight delivery issues, is more than likely the reason he fell to the latter portion of the 1st round. All in all, Sims is definitely a special talent and garners close attention over the next couple of years. His ceiling resides near the top of the rotation thanks to a projectable three-pitch mix. Sims will likely spend the rest of 2012 in Danville and could open next season with Low-A Rome. Be on the lookout for how he performs against more advanced bats in the Appalachian League.
6. Christian Bethancourt | RH Catcher | 6’2”, 220 lb. | Age: 20
I profiled Christian Bethancourt earlier in the week. Christian’s had a pretty awful year statistically, hitting .241/.268/.266 in Double-A Mississippi. He’s not showing any patience or in-game power and is hacking at a lot of baseballs early in the count, resulting in a lot of weak contact. On the flip side, Christian has been pushed aggressively by the Braves and is extremely young for his level. He still has enormous tools on defense and a cannon for an arm, as evidenced by a caught stealing rate of 42% this season. Christian also possesses light-tower raw power, and if his hit tool ever develops, we’re looking at something very special. Until then, monitor Christian’s second half closely and take note of any adjustments he makes at the plate. Barring a strange turn of events, Bethancourt will stay in Mississippi for the rest of the year and will likely begin 2013 there with an eye on a promotion to Gwinnett by the middle of the season, if he can get it together at the plate. Regardless of the terrible numbers, Christian still possesses the highest ceiling of any position player in the system.
7. Zeke Spruill | RHP | 6’5”, 190 lb. | Age: 22
Zeke Spruill is having an overall good year at Double-A Mississippi, posting a 4.21 ERA/3.21 FIP while striking out 73 batters in 107 IP. Spruill has shown a continued ability to limit walks (2.72 BB/9) and keep the ball on the ground (50% groundball rate). Spruill’s arsenal features a sinking fastball that sits in the high-80s to low-90s with an average change, which features nice arm-side run and velocity separation from the fastball. Spruill’s breaking ball is still developing, but has flashed above-average on occasion. The tempo of his delivery is still very slow and deliberate, but he has shortened his arm action a hair in recent looks, which is a great sign for the long-term health of his arm. Zeke has displayed a noticeable platoon split this season, as righties have managed a measly .602 OPS while lefties have posted a much higher .746 OPS. I’ve long advocated for Zeke to develop a cut-fastball as an extra weapon to keep lefties off of his main fastball, but this is much easier said than done. Zeke’s ceiling is a back-of-the-rotation, pitch-to-contact starter who eats a lot of innings. If that does not work out, he could become a nice piece out of the bullpen, as his ability to induce groundballs and get righties out would be an asset in middle or long relief. Look for Zeke to continue to pitch in Double-A, but don’t be surprised if he makes a few starts in Gwinnett by the end of the summer.
8. Edward Salcedo | RH 3B | 6’3”, 195 lb. | Age: 20
Salcedo has enjoyed a very productive 2012, posting a .341 wOBA with 10 HRs for High-A Lynchburg, including a .395/.477/.658 line over his past 10 games. His strikeout rate just shy of 20% paired with a walk rate just above 6% leave a bit to be desired, as Salcedo has continued to struggle with off-speed pitches out of the zone. Edward’s calling card is crazy raw power, which is achieved via his hulking frame and a touch of length in his swing. He has showcased this power well in Lynchburg, nearly tallying his home run output from 2011 in 46 fewer games. His defense at third has always been in question, and the former shortstop has done nothing to alleviate the fear that he might have to move to an outfield corner down the road, tallying 27 errors at the hot corner thus far in 2012. Salcedo’s ceiling is still considerably high and his raw power is undeniable, but major concerns about his future defensive home have kept him lower on most prospect lists, including this one. Monitor Edward’s defensive and offensive progress as the summer rolls on, and look for him to possibly sniff Double-A if he continues to look this good.
9. J.R. Graham | RHP | 6’0”, 185 lb. | Age: 22
After being drafted in the 4th round out of Santa Clara University in 2011, J.R. Graham rolled over opposing hitters in the Appalachian League and showcased his stuff in a very impressive manner, leading to some extra buzz heading into this season. Graham has not disappointed in 2012 at High-A Lynchburg, posting a 2.63 ERA/3.19 FIP with 68 strikeouts and 17 walks in 102.2 innings pitched. Graham’s sinking fastball, which sits in the low-90s and has topped out in the mid-to-upper 90s, has helped him to keep the ball on the ground, as evidenced by a groundball rate of 55.6%. A hard-biting breaking ball and developing changeup round out Graham’s repertoire. There are some questions as to his ultimate role down the road, as a small frame coupled with a bit of effort in his delivery cause many people to wonder if he will be able to stay in the rotation long-term. As for now, all signs point to the Braves keeping J.R. as a starter. Look for Graham to stay in Lynchburg’s rotation and continue to learn the finer points of pitching. Graham could move very quickly to the majors if he is placed in the bullpen thanks to his impressive fastball-breaking ball combination.
10. Alex Wood | LHP | 6’4”, 215 lb. | Age: 21
Wood fell to the Braves in the 2nd round of this year’s draft due in part to concerns about his unorthodox delivery and lack of a reliable breaking ball. Considered a fairly polished arm out of the SEC, Alex was placed in Low-A Rome and his numbers have looked solid. In 12 innings pitched, Wood has fanned 13 and walked 4 while allowing only 4 earned runs. Wood has kept the ball on the ground in his 4 starts, producing a 4.25 ground out per fly out ratio. Alex features a fastball that he can occasionally run up to the upper-90s and a very well developed changeup. As previously mentioned, Wood has struggled to find consistency with his breaking ball due in part to his unorthodox delivery, and the development of this pitch will undoubtedly determine his ultimate role as a starter or reliever. Alex will spend the rest of the season in Rome and will likely begin the 2013 season with Double-A Mississippi. Lefties who can run their fastballs into the upper-90s are a huge commodity. Look for more on Alex Wood in the coming weeks here at CAC.
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Great write-up. Welcome to the team Ethan. A lot of folks seem to be down on our prospects this year as compared to others but it seams to me that we are still pretty strong.
Thanks, braveslifer. I agree, our top 6 are a fairly strong bunch. It falls off a little bit after that with respect to some other teams, but this year’s draft should produce some guys who can make the jump up the list in the near future. If Salcedo continues on his recent tear, he could also move up a couple of spots by the end of the season. I’m personally very high on him.
It sounds like this Sims kid is legit! I remember reading about him when we drafted him. It’s good to hear he’s off to such a great start!
Good read. Can’t wait to read more of your stuff! What are your thoughts on the move to acquire Janish until Simmons is back?
BerrySportsEnthusiast,
Thanks for the kind words. I like the move to acquire Janish, as he will provide a solid glove until Simmons comes back. Redmond didn’t really have a future in ATL, so acquiring a guy who could have an impact in the majors was a nice return, in my opinion.
How is Sims undersized for a RHP when he’s bigger than every pitcher on the list with the exception of Spruill and Wood?
vivabeta,
I should clarify – he’s a bit undersized with respect to the “classic RHP build”, which I would consider to be 6’3″-6’4″, 200-210 pounds or so. That listing was also one of the generous ones, as some sites had him at 6’1″ or so. It’s not a huge issue either way.
Ah ok. Yeah, the “classic RHP build” is what I was curious about. Hope my question didn’t sound cunty.
Not at all, vivabeta. I appreciate you asking!
Really, vivabeta? Can we please not do gendered insults here?
Hahaha. Man girls hate that word.
BB, yeah, most of us do. So how about a little respect in not using it in mixed company?
Seriously? How is that offensive when used to describe my own question?
Because it’s the term itself. It implies that being a jerk or saying something obnoxious is tied to female genitalia.
And it’s so easy to say anything else. Jerk-like. Asshole-ish. Knee-jerk. Reactionary.
I enjoyed the podcast discussing the prospects, I still think Gattis has a bigger ceiling than is being projected. Of note, his 2 outfield assists in 17 chances, and his defense as a catcher. I was surprised that when considering the best offensive prospect, Cunningham and Betancourt were mentioned and not Gattis. That said, I thought the podcast was well informed and gave me a better look at the tools used to determine prospects. New question… Where do Lynchburg’s Cody Martin and Aaron Northcraft fit in ?
Sorry, comments were meant to be posted on podcast replys.
Probably because he’s on the wrong side of 25.
Wes Jorja,
Thanks for listening to the podcast! It was my first experience doing something like that, so sorry for the overall roughness on my end.
Gattis is intriguing, but I’m just not that high on him. I don’t think he’ll be able to stick behind the plate, which relegates him to a corner OF/1B spot. He’s also very old as far as prospects go. Cunningham and Bethancourt were mentioned merely because they made our top 25 list.
Martin is in our top 25, so there will be a write-up on him later this week. Northcraft was in my top 30, but didn’t make the cut into the top 25. Pitch-to-contact guy, good numbers but not a ton of projection.
Additional note: Northcraft has a lot of strikeouts this year, and that may be a sign of improved stuff. In my looks over the 2010-2011 seasons, however, his stuff was pretty uninspiring. He’s definitely one to watch, though.
so Greinke was scratched from his start today and according to DOB he isn’t hurt.
He was supposed to start Wednesday, not today. This isn’t a trade thing, at least it wouldn’t appear to be.
Because of his ejection before the all-star game, the start the next day, and the start right after the break, he had made 3 appearances within a week. Plus he had given up something like 15 runs over the last 21 innings or so. Was just a matter of giving him some rest.
What are the odds of Gilmartin coming up to the majors at some point in 2013?
If he keeps performing as expected, I could see him knocking on the door to the majors by the middle of 2013. I imagine his progression up the ladder will be similar to Mike Minor’s.
I am disappointed to see that even Capitol Avenue Club is not immune to Joe Morganesque worrying about a pitcher standing 6’2” not having the ”classic build.” Come on guys!
“Sims is a bit undersized for a right-handed pitcher, which, along with the slight delivery issues, IS MORE THAN LIKELY THE REASON he fell to the latter portion of the 1st round.”
Adam,
Thanks for commenting. A player’s build plays a definite role in his projection. It’s obviously not the final word, but it plays a role regardless. Sims has not pitched in enough games to dive heavily into his statistics, hence the load of scouting notes on him. I’m not worried about his size; it was more of an observation than anything.
So the writer hopefully meant that “his draft stock may have fallen because some front offices care about height (but of course we in Braves country know better)?”
SABR maintains that a pitcher’s is not statistically significant. Read this:
http://sabr.org/research/does-pitcher-s-height-matter
Adam,
Thanks for linking this article. It was definitely an interesting read, and I hope to read it again once I have a little more time. One thing from your comment: height (or lack thereof) in and of itself is not what caused Sims to be picked in the latter portion of the 1st round. A blend of his arsenal, mechanics, body, and other unknown factors (including the Braves’ draft board) played a role in him being selected there, with a particular emphasis on his “stuff”. It’s not solely about height, and it never was. His draft stock did not fall at all – I never said that. I was merely giving an idea about why he was taken at that point based on what scouts have said. He has serious stuff, but has a few delivery/size issues that forced him into the second tier of high school arms for many scouts. I’m not worried about his build; again, I was merely stating an observation.
Duh, that should say a pitcher’s is not statistically significant.
Apple’s autocorrect keeps removing the word “height” from my sentences. Oh well. Here’s to disabling autocorrect and to hoping that scouts will stop looking at height as well.
Man, the new poll is brutal. Ben Sheets, Jair Jurrjens, or Mike Minor. What would the opposite of “Murderers’ Row” be for pitching?
Death Row?
I’ve been an Alex Wood fan since they drafted him and I did some research and watched some video of him. He may never start for the big squad, but he could be a devastating lefty out of the pen , and soon.
NickB,
I could definitely see that. I’m looking to get a closer look at him in the coming weeks, so I’ll hopefully form a better opinion of him by then.
Only knock I’ve heard on Wood (get it?) is his poor technique. But that kind of heat and left handedness will guarantee him a good shot in the pen at worst, and if he does work out the kinks, could be a monster starter.
Despite the Texeira trade, our farm system is actually decent. You have to figure that we should return to having an above average pitching staff in a couple years. Only time will tell, though. GO BARVES!!!!!!!!11111
Really enjoyed the article. I always loving reading about the farm system.
Just curious though: at what point does a player cease being a prospect?
I only ask because of guys like Vizcaino and Simmons who have had a decent amount of time in the majors at this point. And even Teheran has had a little time, but not as much as the other two guys.
CQ,
We used the eligibility requirements set forth by MLB in “determining rookie status”. If a player hasn’t exceeded those limits, they were eligible for the list.
J.R. Graham was promoted to Mississippi.
When will Ryne Harper start showing up on some prospect lists? Guy has just struck out the world AND shown good control (granted it’s been in the low levels)
but these numbers EVEN IN A+ ball are impressive:
10.38 K/9 1.04 BB/9 90% LOB % (no GB% on fangraphs) 1.24 FIP
eesh, that’s Kimbrel like stuff and he’s 23 , and word if he’s moving to Mississippi any time soon?
you sort of answered your own question Nick. He’s 23 and pitching in high A. When you’re that old and pitching against 19-21 year olds, you should be dominating.
When he is putting up dominant numbers at an age appropriate level, he’ll start creeping into prospect lists. Though unless he makes it to AAA in the next year or so, hel’ll never be at an age appropriate level.
So with stats like that, why IS he in A ball? Promote him and give him a chance to fail.
Because he hasn’t been there that long. Or the Braves scouts just don’t believe in him. I can’t say why he hasn’t been promoted.
Not too many 19 & 20 year olds in High A ball. More like 21-23 yr. olds which makes his performance look better.
The good players are 19-20, the fringe players are 20-21, the organizational filler guys are 22+ in high A.
I just don’t understand why there is such reliance on age when judging a talent level. The hit against Gattis has been that he’s older so of course he’s bigger and should be hitting the ball well. Now, the argument against this guy is again, his age.
First, I can imagine that pitching or hitting against guys that are a year or two younger makes that much difference and second, who’s to say that those younger guys aren’t just as good? I mean, look at Bryce and Heyward. Yeah, I know those guys are a special breed, but still, the guys in A-ball are there for a reason. They are good ball players. It’s not like this guy is pitching against softball players.
The age thing just seems like such a cop-out of an excuse. And, I don’t mean that against you in particular Franklin. Just saying that in general.
can is supposed to be can’t. Sorry about that.
because there is such a enormously long record of when guys dominate lower levels that they are too old for, it’s meaningless. Look at Terdo. He was old for his level, dominated, got promoted and totally bombed when he was finally in an age appropriate level. People made the same exact comments as you are about him last year when we all cautioned against overrating him based on dominating younger players.
You might think that it shouldn’t make much of a difference, but time and time and time again, it’s shown that it makes a huge difference. It’s just well established that being old for your level vastly diminishes the impressiveness of your offensive stats.
Mr.Rabon,
In response to your comments above and below that High A players are aligned like this : 19-20 Good Players, 20-21 Fringe Players, and 22+ Organizational Filler. I disagree , here are some facts :
In the Carolina League – High A :
1. There are only (4) 19 yr. olds – that represents 2% of the total players in the league.
2. There are only (8) 20 yr. olds – that represents 4% of the total players in the league.
Analysis : You can”t tell me there are only 6% or 12 Good Players in the Carolina League at High A.
3. Also, by your statement : Nick Ahmed (22) and Tommy LaStella (23) would be considered organizational fillers. That is certainly not the case.
Overall, if you look at your statement, most college players that are drafted out of a four-year school would automatically be placed under the fringe or organizational filler label. Most of those players start at Low A full-season ball coming out of college and usually hit High A when they are 21 -22. Overall, your statement is flawed based on factual statistical data.
Most good collegiate players move quickly through those levels. Tommy LaStella and Nick Ahmed are fringe guys, according to most scouts. Also, my ages were quoted as start of the baseball year, ie how old the players are in Feb/March, which is the convention in such matters. If you’re using ‘as of right now’ ages, then bump all those numbers up by about a half year.
Edit: and I never meant to imply that he’s really old for his level, just that he is a little bit old for the level to make much out of a small sample of statistics.
Looks like it’s time for the Braves to start looking for more position players. The cupboard seems to be full of pitchers.
John Sickels at minorleagueball.com speculates that Teheran may be suffering from an injury. As he puts it, “Component ratios are slipping and he’s been absolutely crushed in some recent starts. Still just 21 years old, but there’s clearly something wrong here and I wonder if there is a physical problem. Generally speaking, performance collapses like this often (although not always) indicate an undisclosed or undiagnosed injury.”
Was Brandon Beachy ever in the top 10?
I don’t think so, he was older but he flew throught the system so fast it did not matter.