Dempster Updates
July 24, 2012 at 10:52 am by Franklin Rabon under Atlanta Braves
*UPDATE 6:05 PM* Cubs are still believed to be in discussions with Braves, and prefer any offer they would likely make to what the Dodgers would likely offer, but due to Dempster’s stance, are now mostly talking with Dodgers. Braves aren’t waiting, but also aren’t totally shutting the Cubs out either. If the Cubs come back to them with Dempster’s absolute acceptance of a trade to them, they would be open to a trade. But there couldn’t be another mishap in any way, shape or form. The Cubs front office would have to be 100% sure this time. The Braves are absolutely talking with other teams now though, and thus the Cubs would have to call the Braves and ask if they would still do a deal, since the Braves may engage in negotiations at any time.
Any potential deal with the Cubs would still likely involve Delgado, but the Braves may also want a bit more now in return.
A Dempster deal is still unlikely, but people seem to have calmed down a bit on the Braves end, after an initial outrage after hearing that Dempster planned to make next start and ‘could take a week to decide.’
*UPDATE 5:36 PM* The Braves have heard from Chicago radio that Dempster said he could take “up to a week to decide”, and since they cannot talk with Dempster directly, and because the Cubs front office has been unable or unwilling to give them any better information on this front, the Braves are believed to be taking Dempster’s ‘threats’ seriously, and have all but moved on.
Astounding how quickly this all unravelled. Personally I was fairly ambivalent about the trade, but Wren and the Cubs front office have to be really frustrated. In a situation where hours of time can be worth millions of dollars, at least three whole days have been wasted.
If I had to put a number on the chances of Dempster to Atlanta, I’d go with 15% right now. It’s still possible, but would take a lot of things to go just right. The Braves cannot sit there waiting at this point, with no end to Dempster’s decision in sight. Dempster also said he’d make his next start for the Cubs. Obviously that wouldn’t be Dempster’s decision on whether or not he makes his next start, but it does indicate his state of mind with regards to potential trades.
*UPDATE 4:28 PM* According to a source, the offer of Delgado is no longer a current offer, and if the Cubs want back in, they would have to renegotiate. The Braves are again calling other teams about starting pitching, and Dempster is no longer seen as their top priority.
The source said the deal “isn’t 100% dead, but it would have to be re-incarnated.” Delgado wouldn’t necessarily be off the table, but the terms for the deal “almost certainly wouldn’t be the same after all this. If for no other reason than it has become clear that the Braves offer was lapping everybody else’s offer, and the Cubs’ bargaining position is much weaker than it was two days ago.”
The Braves seem to have grown frustrated with the Cubs’ inability to give any idea of how long it will take Dempster to decide. It was said that “the Cubs front office and Dempster seem to not even be reading the same book, let alone on the same page.” The Braves simply could not afford to remain in limbo while other teams continued to target their fall back plans.
*UPDATE 2:53 PM* Indications I’m getting are that Braves offer will be pulled at the end of the day today (or sooner), but that doesn’t mean trade talks would be over. It would simply mean that the terms would have to be reworked in such a scenario, and it would be the Cubs asking the Braves this time, not the reverse. While Delgado might be still included in such a package if the deal must be reworked, it wouldn’t be a guarantee, and it would no longer be on open offer for the Cubs/Depmster to accept at any time (as it is right this now).
Additionally, the Cubs are losing leverage by the minute, as both the Dodgers and Braves seem less and less inclined to give up major talent as the deadline approaches. Part of the premium price the Braves were willing to pay for Dempster was the certainty of having a guy with many days left before the end of the deadline. That has obviously vanished. It seems as if the Braves are going to give the Cubs and Dempster today to get this worked out before they start making phone calls again. But even if they aren’t going to make calls on other players today, they also probably wouldn’t turn down calls made to them. And if the right guy was offered by another GM, the deal might even be gone today.
At this point I’d rate the likelihood of Dempster to the Braves at 45%. Dempster may realize that the Dodgers don’t particularly want him, and that it may likely be the Braves or the Cubs, if he doesn’t make up his mind soon. The Dodgers are likely hoping that a desperate Theo allows a sweetheart deal to fall in their laps netting them Dempster for pennies on the dollar.
*UPDATE 2:05 PM* Indications are that the Cubs believed that Dempster would unconditionally accept a trade to either of his top two teams (Braves or Dodgers), whereas Dempster believed he had indicated he would only unconditionally accept a trade to the Dodgers, and that a trade to the Braves wouldn’t be accepted unless a trade to the Dodgers was completely impossible. It is possible that this was simply a miscommunication between Dempster and the Cubs, but how such a massive communication failure could have happened on such a drastically important issue is mind boggling. Either way, Theo looks really bad here (he either overstated Dempster’s agreement to the trade to the Braves or he didn’t properly communicate with his player) or Dempster lied/changed his mind.
I still believe this deal is more likely than not to be completed, but I’d say it’s gone from 95% likely last night, to maybe 60% likely, and quickly deteriorating by the hour. If this goes on for more than a day, the Braves will likely move on, and if the Cubs want to approach them again, a deal would have to start nearly from scratch, as leverage positions are quickly changing.
*UPDATE 1:34 PM* According to Ken Rosenthal Dempster is holding the trade up because he would prefer the Cubs to continue to try to work out a deal to the Dodgers. If this is the case, there is a high probability that both the Dodgers and Braves will move on from Dempster and he will end up staying with the Cubs. The Dodgers don’t seem willing to give up the pieces that the Cubs want in return, and the Braves seem unwilling to wait more than a couple of additional days on Dempster.
Theo Epstein could come out of this looking really, really bad. All indications are he gave the Braves the impression that this was a done deal, and now there seems to be a very real chance that he ends up keeping Dempster, not getting a major piece to rebuild his team in Delgado, and making Frank Wren severely question him in future dealings. Every hour that goes by with Dempster not approving the deal is an hour closer to the Braves being forced to pursue other options and thus take the deal off the table.
*UPDATE 12:43 PM* Dempster has tweeted via his official Ryan Dempster Foundation handle: “Nothing official to report. You will be the 1st to know. Thnx to all my fans for the support #RD46″ So, he apparently still hasn’t made a decision or is waiting until the 24 hour moratorium period is over to officially announce it. Though the latter possibility seems unlikely.
1) The Braves were definitely given the impression that Dempster had given pre-approval on the deal, it’s unclear whether the Cubs overplayed their hand on the issue or if Dempster backtracked. It is not believed that a contact extension is part of the hold up. Dempster is just taking his time to figure it out.
2) While the Braves are extremely frustrated by this development, they wouldn’t take the deal off the table out of spite. They believe this is the best deal they are likely to get for a starting pitcher.
3) However, they would pull the deal if it’s not agreed to within the next day or so, as it would likely cost them a Dempster start, and they need to move on, because they feel that they have to acquire a SP upgrade and can’t afford to be shut out.
4) The Brewers are sticking hard to demanding a package that would be along the lines of Teheran, Delgado and one of our best offensive prospects (ie Salcedo or the like). They are said to absolutely view any deal that wouldn’t involve Teheran plus another major prospect and minor prospect as a complete no go. There is some thought that they could back off these demands as the deadline nears, but the Braves don’t think they have the luxury of waiting that long and then possibly having the Brewers keep Greinke.
5) Part of the issue is that the Braves believe they absolutely must make a trade for a SP, part is that the Braves want to make a couple more moves. Wren would like to get a bench bat and a reliever, and he can’t even begin to work on those deals until a SP is delivered, as obviously he doesn’t know what pieces he will even have until such a time.
6) While extremely frustrated, the Braves do believe that Dempster will accept today, and the trade would then process 24 hours from the moment his acceptance is given to MLB (24 hour moratorium on trades involving 10/5 players). If he agrees early enough in the day, he could even pitch tomorrow.
7) Like has been said, it almost certainly is Delgado, and it’s unlikely the hold up has changed that. It is unclear whether the Cubs are sending a lot of cash or taking Jair Jurrjens plus sending less cash. The deal is believed to be completely cash neutral, ie both teams payroll will be nearly exactly the same after the deal as before.
In the interests of full disclosure, this/these source(s) has/have been pretty reliable, but has/have obviously never given me info anywhere close to this level before, so take it FWIW. At this point I would call it informed speculation, though I also wouldn’t be surprised if everything he/she/they said turned out true.
Follow me on Twitter for up to the minute updates as I get anything else: @fjrabon
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From MLBTR…
3:26pm: Dempster told reporters, including Doug Padilla of ESPNChicago.com, that he’s taking his time to weigh his options (Twitter link). He plans to pitch for the Cubs tomorrow. “I have a pretty good idea of where I want to go,” Dempster said, according to Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune (on Twitter).
So, now he’s basically acting like both teams are clamoring for him and he’s just toying with them in making his decision…
UPDATE 4:28 PM – etc.etc.
I didn’t really want this deal going through and I’m glad we didn’t pushover on this one. Poor business being done in Chicago. Let Dempster mope and whine elsewhere.
based on latest tweet he seems to be forcing cubs to sweeten the deal with dodgers or he will sabotage the cubs efforts.
Hate to be Theo right now. Ouch.
The bad part is that we tipped our hand in all of this, too, and it might weaken our leverage in negotiations with other teams.
Yeah, I think a lot of people were a little surprised to see Delgado included. It was easy before the rumors to say ‘Trade Delgado!’ but once his name was actually included it scared a lot of people. It’s bad that we tipped our hand, but good that we are realizing the true value of Delgado’s potential, and can maybe package together some other guys to get a JJ upgrade rather than a mid-season savior.
I hope this trade has fallen through. With Moylan on his way back (hopefully), what about putting Medlen in the rotation and chasing a bullpen arm that won’t require a top tier prospect? Wren mentioned Medlen was an option to start. Medlen in place of JJ would be quite an impact. Maybe not as much as it would with Dempster, but we would still have control of Delgado going forward.
Hudson, Hanson, Sheets, Delgado/Minor, Medlen… not a bad rotation in my mind. Shore up the bullpen and get a RHB. I don’t believe we would have to sell the farm for those pickups either. I would hate to get Dempster and have Delgado outperform him the rest of the season, which is possible if Dempster regresses as expected.
May not be a championship team, but they wouldn’t be selling the future for a long shot chance at another ring.
I would like to say it again. Great coverage of this deal. Great stuff.
Would everybody just stop with the Medlen to the rotation stuff? He has a 4.26 ERA as a starter (and worse peripherals) he gets exposed there and his best role is doing exactly what he’s doing…..
Pretty small sample size though. I don’t think he’s anything to write home about when used as a starter. But he is about as solid a #5 as you’re going to find. He seriously has one of the most dominate changeups in baseball, and that alone can get you through 5 innings as an out pitch as long as you can locate your fastball. Like a lot of people have pointed out, I think you can only do it if Venters is back.
Thats 3 runs a game better than JJ this year
Whats with all the failed Braves trades/signings in recent past? Peavy, Furcal, Dempster, some others I think I’m forgetting. I know each is a different situation, but all seem eerily similar in that something positive was leaked as if it was done, then it falls apart miserably. This one may be for the better.
The Braves dodged a bullet on Peavy. He’s been injury prone since he got traded. It would have been Mike Hampton all over again. Furcal’s agent was a scumbag, so that’s not the Braves’ fault. Dempster is down to incompetence on Chicago’s end. Sometimes the best deals are ones that don’t happen.
CAC Reports! nice. I wonder how long before DOB and Bowman are saying “they took our jobs!” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=brj2UkUPjCI
Ha, I wouldn’t expect this to be a regular thing from us. It just sort of happened for this.
Funny, I was just watching that before I saw this post. haha
“I have a pretty good idea of where I want to go”
Go to Hell, Dempster.
I just don’t get all the hesitancy about various trades from the fans standpoint when a trade has been on demand for awhile now. It’s like once the option is out there, people get gun shy and want to do smaller upgrades.
I mean, I’m not saying we should sell the farm and pick up Greinke, but at the same time, since when is being a “wild-card contender” what a team should strive for? I think we can all agree that the team we have now, and that means every aspect, not just pitching, is not a Championship caliber team. And yet, it seems we are fine with that?
I thought the goal at the start of every year for a team like the Braves is to win a championship. At the break, you assess your progress and you’re either all in or all out from that point. But, it just seems we would rather be “ho-hum” about what we’ve got and hope for the best.
And before anyone goes flaming me for this post, please keep in mind that it is made with the utmost respect for everyone and their opinions. I’m not calling or singling anyone out.
Well, but you just kind of made an argument against this trade. If this team is not a championship team in any aspect, why give away a guy who projects to be a solid pitcher with years of team control to fix just one aspect?
True, but that kind of goes to the “being all out” part of it. If we don’t view ourselves as championship type team, shouldn’t we become sellers and try to get rid of bad contracts, aging players for younger prospects?
I’m just saying that what point is it to basically toe the line like many are suggesting?
Well, because once you get in the playoffs, it’s basically a crapshoot. Plus, who are you going to trade? Other than Bourn, is there anyone else we’d get value for? Chipper’s not going anywhere. Trading McCann could be throwing in the towel for next year, too. At this point, I wouldn’t count out Hudson playing into the Braves’ plans next season either, and I’m not sure what we could get for him. Tommy would be the player for whom we could get the biggest return, but that means the team would have to have decided he’s not a part of our future plans.
Plus, for the FO, it’s not just about winning championships. There’s the emotional component of it being Chipper’s last year. There’s the difference at the gate between being in a pennant race (even if you’re not likely to win it) and throwing in the towel, and the potential revenue from any additional postseason games, even if it’s just the play-in game.
I’m not saying I’m envious of being in Wren’s position. He’s got a difficult job, no doubt. I think he’ll make the best decisions possible. My main objection was that it seems fans are all for the trades until Xplayer is listed and then say “hold the presses.” We can’t have it both ways. We’re either in or we’re out.
My apologies if it sounded like I was trying to criticize the organization. Totally not my intention.
Oh, that’s not how I took it. I was just saying from the FO perspective, it’s more complex than all out or all in.
From the fan perspective, someone brought up earlier that it’s easy to just throw around trade ideas, but when you’re faced with the reality of that trade happening, it forces you to look at the cost-benefit balance a lot more closely.
Yeah that’s a good point. That is, after all, what we’re here to do. Analyze and comment. :)
Betting the Cubs FO isn’t too happy with Dempster right now. He just completely undermined their leverage.
Wonder what sort of reception he’ll get if he does pitch tomorrow. And if he pitches when the Dodgers come to Atlanta, I would think he’d get a pretty vocal reception then, too.
Jon Heyman is now reporting the Cubs are back to discussing with the Dodgers.
With such a great and young core group they are more likely to have a better chance next year. Simmons full season,the maturing of Heyward and Freeman,as well as their 4 young pitchers, including Beachy. With Chipper and Lowes contracts gone they are looking very good. I am willing to chalk this year up to growth and injuries if it means too big of a risk. i remember the 82 trade where Butler and Jacoby were traded for Len Barker. in hindsite it ruined the Braves for the rest of the 80s
F*ck Dumpster. Never liked him, and he is not as good as he’s been pitching lately. I’m glad the deal fell through, I’ve loved watching Delgado develop and am more excited about watching him pitch over the next few years than the next few months of Dumpster.
“Take up to a week to decide.”
He does realize this isn’t the offseason right? Teams can’t simply sit around waiting on him. He’s not THAT good. It wouldn’t hurt to keep an ear open for any more rumblings of him, but I do think the Braves need to focus their efforts elsewhere in the trade market now.
I will laugh hysterically if he makes his decision after both the Dodgers and Braves have made other moves.
The trade deadline will be here in a week.
yes, Dempster basically all but said he will run this to the deadline in order to try to go to the Dodgers.
Dempster probably saw the Braves were going to give up Delgado in this trade, knew it was a terrible trade, and decided to help us out and veto the trade out of the goodness of his heart. Thank you Ryan Dempster! Anyways, I didn’t want a pitcher who makes me think of a dumpster everytime I hear his name.
What the Brewers want would be more than enough to get Josh Johnson.
If they lose a few this week, I’m sure their attitude will change.
As much as I would love that trade, I don’t know that the Marlins would send him to a rival, even with doing a fire sale.
Not that the Braves have had much to go on, but I hope that their source of news re: Dempster is not Chicago radio.
that’s why they are so frustrated. They’re not getting much of any info from the Cubs front office. And it was Ryan Dempster directly saying he’d make his next start on Chicago radio. Again, pointing to Dempster and the Cubs’ front office totally being on different pages.
I have a hunch that in two years time we will look back on this and think– “thank god.”
wouldn’t be surprised if we are saying this within the next few weeks.
Just saw a stat on MLBN around Dempster’s performance at Turner Field. 0 wins – 8 losses, 4.77 ERA, 48 K, 39 BB. At least that is what I remember seeing. Yikes! I know he pitching better this year, and it is a small sample size BUT if that is even close to what he would do I’m really glad the deal fell apart.
It’s sounding more and more like The Braves and the Cubs got played by Dempster, who never had any intention of going to Atl unless every other option of working something out with the Dodgers was exhausted and it was 11:55 pm on July 31. He was just using the Cubs/Braves to weaken the Cubs leverage with LA so they would come back to the table…or it just happened to work out that way.
Either way I’m less frustrated with the Cubs than I am with Dempster, who is coming out smelling like trash in this scenario.
Honestly, lets face it, the Braves are not going to win the World Series this year. Our rotation would get killed in the playoffs, our offense is inconsistent, and Fredi Gonzalez plays to lose. I see us making the playoffs, but I don’t think we should trade away players that could take us to the playoffs for multiple years. Sorry Chipper.
Well.. You guys know that if we don’t deal Delgado for Dempster then he will probably be used in another high profile trade. That is unless we get some shitty back of the rotation guy like Liriano.
Or maybe Theo will try and salvage his relationship w Frank and give us Schamerzadiaa for Disturbin.
I’m of the opinon that Delgado is the bait they are dangling in front of any potential suitors.
Oops… that was supposed to be in response to Vivabeta
In other news… strUggla has struck out, again.
Dempster can stick his annoying glove movements right up his dumpster.
Problem?
I wrote a blog about the affect of the internet and the ensuing media increase on the trade deadline.
http://derangedangryhillbilly.blogspot.com/2012/07/the-internet-and-its-affect-on-baseball.html
Hope ya like it
Dempster is merely using his rights. So should the cubs. Offer him the minimum qualifying offer next year-odds are they’ll get a draft pick out of it. In the meantime Dempster can take his house off the market. One thing I would not do as the team is the Lilly trade redux. I would doubt LA will have room for Dempster after this year-so he may well end up pitching for the Cubs next year as well-oh well.