Dan Uggla’s Tale of Two Halves
July 24, 2012 at 12:31 pm by David Lee under Atlanta Braves, Player Analysis
I’ve seen the question raised in the past few days asking if Dan Uggla’s cold streak is similar or worse than last year’s. While I’m not in the business of comparing cold streaks – I mean, that’s just depressing – I do want to see if I can diagnose Uggla’s problems.
The first number that automatically jumped out at me when analyzing Uggla is an infield fly ball rate of 44.4% and a total fly ball rate of 50% this month. His previous IFFB% per month were 14.8%, 12.1% and 9.1%. While all of these are small samples, and Uggla’s cold streak included June, I think it might help answer his issues.
While the big arms may distract you, Uggla’s swing is in fact lower-body heavy. He has strong hips and uses rotation very well to drive the ball when he’s in sync. The problem begins when Uggla abandons his lower half, falls out of sync and attempts to make up for it with an arm-heavy swing. I can safely say that power hitters cannot get by on an arm-heavy swing.
The result of this for Uggla is making contact farther out in front of the plate, causing weak contact, including infield fly balls and ground balls, as well as whiffing on pitches low and away. This is evident in the map below, which measures the whiff rate per zone in July. Notice how Uggla is making contact on pitches on the inner half and up. He has been able to cover the inner half all season because of that rotation and bat speed, but he completely abandoned his whiff rate in that area lately because his bat and hands are ahead of where they need to be.
Another telling number is foul balls. If Uggla’s bat and hands are ahead of where they need to be because of being arm-heavy, he will likely foul the ball off more because of not squaring the ball up correctly. On the simple four-seamer, Uggla fouled it off 17% of the time in the first two months. Since his cold streak began, Uggla has fouled the four-seamer off 22% of the time. On the slider in the first two months, his foul rate was 14% and he put it in play 13%. During the cold streak, the foul rate is 16% and it’s in play 8%.
And weak contact means poor numbers. In April, Uggla had a .346 wOBA and .328 BABIP. In May, .368 and .349. In June, .284 and .222. In July, .244 and .171. Uggla’s weak contact is dropping his batting average on balls in play like an anchor, resulting in easy outs.
These are imperfect numbers considering the sample size and the fact that I can’t pinpoint the exact date when Uggla started stepping in a bucket. But an infield fly ball rate that high is tough to ignore, and considering I am of the belief that his struggles this year, and last year, stem from abandoning his lower half and relying on his arms, I think the numbers fit well with my observations.
Uggla needs to return to a swing that utilizes his lower half more, and in the process, syncs with his arms and hands to square the ball and drive it. Until he does, expect more pop flies, foul balls and missed opportunities. It was a half-season project last year, and it’s shaping up to be similar this year. He will be back, it’s just a matter of when.
Map provided by Baseball Prospectus and Brooks Baseball.
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Do the barves not have somebody working for them who can figure this out and tell dan?
pretty sure that they know this is part of what’s wrong, quite another to actually fix it.
He could also be wrking the kinks out in the cage. But it is a completely different implementing change into the game.
What about his strike out rate? I don’t have the numbers, but it seems it’s higher than normal this year (and yes I know it’s always normal is still high for him). Is that also a result of the arm-heavy swing? Would simply crowding the plate more help in this regard?
Good point. Uggla’s strikeout rate is at a career-high 28.2%, and it’s been above 30% during his cold streak.
I think it could certainly be a factor in his current mechanics. He’s whiffing more on pitches on the outer half of the plate, but he’s covering the inner half better, so I think this is a direct result.
Compensating by changing your stance, crowding the plate, etc., may be a temporary fix, but it’s not a good idea and can have negative affects long-term. Brian McCann admitted to compensating for his side injury last year and is just now getting back to normal mechanics-wise. Uggla just needs to grind through this and figure out how to correct his problems.
Please keep in mind that I’m not a baseball player by trade, but much more so of a basketball player when I ask this question…
In basketball, the way a shooter breaks out of a slump is to keep shooting the damn ball. You don’t run and hide from it. Can the same be said for Dan and baseball players in general? That in, aside from figuring out what’s up with his mechanics, he just needs to keep swinging the bat with confidence? Hit his way out of the slump in other words? Or is baseball not really that simple since you’re having to compensate for the way you’re being pitched as well?
I’ve always said the best way to get out of slumps is repetition, just like you said. Uggla needs to keep working on his mechanics, he needs to keep grinding away and he doesn’t need to compensate. It may look ugly for a while, but it’s the only way to get back to where he was with long-term benefits.
They say a slump in baseball is like the common cold, no matter what you do, it always seems to last at least a week or two. Or in Dan’s case, a month or two.
When I slumped, I usually knew what I was doing wrong. I would then focus on that in the cage and they completely clear my mind when I stepped in the box. Many times a slump can continue because the hitter thinks too much about the problem when he’s in the box. Chances are, pitchers aren’t pitching him much differently. Obviously, I don’t know if that’s the case with Uggs, but I know that was true for me. (My experience is college ball).
Thanks guys!
From the cheap seats I would say the solution for Uggla is not analogous to the “keep on shooting” approach in basketball.
Uggla’s approach at the plate is just plain stupid. He is flying open, trying to pull pitches that are on the outer half and beyond. They are impossible for him to hit since he has flown open to such an extent. Somebody should introduce him to a part of the field of play known as “right field” – it’s right behind where he plays defense. It’s considered acceptable in baseball for right-handed hitters to hit pitches out there when the pitch is on the outer half of the plate. I am not making this up.
It is incredible that a major league slugger with his record and two excellent hitting coaches on hand, plus Chipper hanging around, cannot make the necessary adjustment. He did the exact same thing last year when he was in his slump, so there does not seem to be a whole lot of learning going on there between the ears of Big Dan.
Ted Williams’ three rules of hitting were get a good pitch to hit, have good thinking, and have fast hands. Uggla’s woes are traceable to his flagrant recidivist noncompliance with two of those rules. I would bench him – but lovingly – to give him some motivational therapy to improve his approach.
Point well taken, but, and this might be playing devil’s advocate a bit, he did come out of the slump last year without hitting the ball to that majestic place known as right field.
Found a heat chart that shows during hit streak last year he was contacting a lot more pitches that were up and away than during slump. Doesn’t say if t hey were going to right field, but that’s highly likely, and this reinforces what’s evident from watching his at bats.
http://www.baseballanalytics.org/baseball-analytics-blog/2011/8/14/dan-ugglas-hit-streak-ends.html
“Notice how Uggla is making contact on pitches on the inner half and up.”
Me just being nitpicky here, but the diagram says the viewpoint is from the catcher, but if he’s making contact on inside pitches, isn’t this viewpoint from the pitcher?
The map measures whiff rate, so I assumed the hot boxes meant more whiffs. Because if you look at this, that would lead me to believe hot boxes mean more whiffs. Or am I having a brain fart and not realizing it? That happens often.
Nop. I was the one having the brain fart. Thanks for the clarification. I should try reading next time; I hear it’s good for the brain.
Uggla has brought nothing good to this club. The only time he goes deep is when the Brvaes are up 3 + runs. I think now that he has a secure contract, he doesn’t feel the need to strive to be the player he once was. Complete waste of money. I would have much rather kept Omar and Mike Dunn
Agreed. Hope he plays better for the next few months so he will have more value in a trade. Clear payroll, get prospects. Get either a 2B/3B (Prado can play the other position) and then bring in somebody to play leftfield. We would also have more money to re-sign Bourn and go after a SP.
For sure, I think the Braves signed him to a reasonable contract, so I don’t think it will be a problem in a trade. I would love to see Brandom Phillips on our team!
“Uggla has brought nothing good to this club.”
How about when he carried the club for half a season last year?
You’re right. He did carry us for the second half, but he finished with a .233 batting average with 156 K’s. And most of his Home Runs were in blowouts.
And we didn’t make the playoffs so who the heck cares if he carried us or not.
If you can find where “most of his Home Runs were in blowouts” then I’ll gladly admit my error. The Braves missing the playoffs were a culmination of several things gone wrong, including pitching, not just Uggla’s slow start.
Yep. How selfish of Dan. Only hitting homeruns with a 3 run lead. He needs to be a better teammate.
How can you admit that he “carried us for the second half” and then say it doesn’t matter because we missed the playoffs. One guy is supposed to win every game? What about our starting pitchers, bullpen and almost every hitter struggling down the stretch. It be nice to have a guy play like a superstar every day, but this just isn’t baseball.
batting average and batter K’s, fine evidence to use on this site……
your proof is lacking, your findings substandard and your conclusions questionable
For every game that he carried us, he was equally detrimental in the earlier part of the season last year. If anything, last year, it all just evened out for him. This year, I’m not so sure; there seems to be much more negatives than positives (on offense anyway). I don’t know what his club house intangibles are, but we got him for offense (not clubhouse presence and defense). He is supposed to be a productive cleanup type hitter. There, he has failed miserably.
The guy hit 36 home runs last year. It’s ridiculous to say he has brought nothing to the club. This comment is just petulance.
I have heard enough excuses for Dan
Such as ” He is working hard to come out of the slump”
or “He still plays hard every day”
If he was working hard to get his swing back on track than he wouldn’t be 0-2 on every at-bat and striking out over 1 time per game.
Sometimes you have to tip your golden sombrero.
Sometimes you have to get sick of tipping your Golden Sombrero, because a Golden Sombrero is heavy as hell!
Made me literally laugh out loud.
That’s the second dumbest statement I have seen, only behind your previous one. Working hard on something doesn’t mean you will resolve the problem overnight. Maybe he never will but your comment makes no sense.
Some good news: He’s Batting 1.000 on pitches down and inside!
Not exactly he just isn’t swinging and missing there
Hey Dan is still a defensive wizard at 2B so he brings plenty of value to the Barves.
- Chip Caray
Thanks for the shoutout Joe
Sorry Dan.
Dan Uggla is a great baseball player in my opinion.
You’re female (judging by your name) therefore your eyes are drawn to those huge-mongous arms just like we men are drawn to boobies. So, your angle is skewed :)
comment above literally made me LOL at work.
@ Michael: (snert)
@ Karyn… nice boobies!!
LOL I kid, i kid.
I agree. He has had a solid career.
So what can be done now in terms of trades and acquisitions? There’s almost no chance that Uggla will be able to play 2B on an everyday basis by the time his contract over, so a trade will have to occur eventually anyway. Given his recent performance and huge contract does he actually have any positive trade value?
I’ve always felt that Prado was most value at 2B. If Uggla were traded replacing the HR’s might be difficult, put replacing his overall production couldn’t be that hard.
Prado is abut the same with the glove at 2nd as Uggla , he’s much better at 3rd AND YOU DON’T CREATE NEED BY TRADING PLAYERS!!!!
Some of you need to put the video games down I swear.
The need to trade Dan was decided upon the day his contract extension was signed. There’s no way he can continue to man 2B throughout the length of his contract. He’s just now getting to the age where we can expect significant declines. If he wants to stay on the field he’s going to have to lose muscle in order to gain flexibility and quickness. If he does that, he loses his calling card.
At some point he’ll be traded to an AL team. Its just a matter of when.
Man, Dan is hitting like shit but you won’t find a tougher guy in the game. He took that ball of the head as if it were Fredi throwing one of his mcnuggets at him.
Uh why the hell was Hudson taken out of the game? Retired 16 in a row and has only thrown 80 pitches.. Pinch hit for with no one on and 1 out. Ugh
Uggla’s WAR by year (He’s generally played a similar amount of games since 2006): 2006, 4.5; 2007, 2.7; 2008, 4.6; 2009, 2.7; 2010, 4.9; 2011, 2.5; 2012, 2.0. Maybe there’s a comeback ahead?
I’ve been indifferent abut Uggla since he came to Atlanta. At times he has frustratingly predictable at-bats; but beyond that, he’s about average to me, or slightly better at times and worse at other times.
Below is a link to some Fangraphs graphs that span Dan’s career compared to the MLB average.
http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=3442&position=2B&page=0&type=mini
JJ is at 13% in the poll…that made me laugh in a sad way.
I pointed that out in a different thread when someone was upset that Sheets had a 70% rating, well over Minor. Said the more concerning issue is that 13% have more confidence in J.J. than Sheets AND Minor.