(Michael) Bourn With Power
July 26, 2012 at 10:55 am by David Lee under Atlanta Braves, Player Analysis
Every time Michael Bourn hits a home run these days, he’s setting a career high that he might never reach again. His previous career high was five set as a rookie in 2008, and he’s sitting on eight now after hitting a two-run shot Wednesday in the Braves’ 7-1 win over the Marlins.
I examined where Bourn was targeting pitches to launch them out a month or two ago, but with the introduction of Baseball Prospectus’ and Brooks Baseball’s hitter profiles, I thought it would be interesting to see it mapped out in that way. Below is the diagram representing Bourn’s ISO.
Nothing has changed much since I last looked. Bourn is targeting pitches up and in to jack them out. So obviously, Bourn’s home runs are going to right field, as shown below.
But as power comes, sometimes hitters trade some plate discipline for it, so is this is the case with Bourn?
The center fielder is whiffing on fastballs 4.2% of the time this season, so we can safely say it’s not the hard stuff that’s getting to him. However, he’s whiffing on 20% of sliders, 12.4% of curveballs and 14.6% on changeups. Comparing that to before this season, Bourn whiffed on sliders 13.7% of the time, 11.7% on curveballs and 17.2% on changeups. So on the breaking stuff, yes, he’s swinging and missing more, but he’s recognizing the difference between the fastball and changeup better this season than he has in previous years, and that could be a big reason for why he’s catching up to those high and inside fastballs and hitting them over the fence.
However, if you look at Bourn’s discipline numbers, it would lead you to believe his eye at the plate hasn’t changed. He’s swinging at pitches out of the zone 22.8% of the time, which is actually below his career mark of 23%. He’s making slightly less contact on pitches out of the zone, as well, possibly leading to a slight uptick in strikeout percentage at 21.3% compared to a career mark of 19.9%. But the difference between weak contact on pitches out of the zone and missing altogether is minimal.
The talk of Bourn striking out so much is likely the result of small-sampled observation. He only struck out in 13.3% of his plate appearances in April while keeping it around his career norm of 20% in May and June. However, he has seen a spike to 30% in July, which is probably causing much of the talk.
But, if notice along with the strikeout rate, Bourn is walking 10% of the time this month compared to 9.5% in April, and 6.7% and 6.1% in May and June, so the small sample floats both ways.
Aside from swinging and missing at a few more breaking pitches, there’s no evidence to suggest Bourn is trading on-base ability or plate discipline for his newfound power. I think he’s simply reacting to pitches up and in better than he has in the past, and considering he’s whiffing less on the changeup, he seems to be taking advantage of seeing the speed difference. It’s impossible to say whether this is repeatable, but considering he has never seen the fastball/changeup combination this well, I would just enjoy it while it lasts.
Maps pulled from Baseball Prospectus/Brooks Baseball and Texas Leaguers.
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Great stuff, David. Sometimes I feel like too much of a brown-noser, but I just have to say you all consistently do a tremendous job. Honestly, this site has become the only one I go to for all things Atlanta Braves (well, here and Twitter). Keep it up!
Thank you, Stephen. It means a lot to get compliments like this.
And as a baseball novice, I find your blog particularly approachable for casual fans such as myself. Really appreciate the time and effort you guys all put in.
Nice read. I really hope we can find a way to sign him.. we’ve finally got a legit CF’er and a lead-off man.. I’m just very doubtful with his agent being Scott Boras. But it would be nice to lock him down for a few seasons.
is the map accurate as far as where the HRs are landing? if so, it seems like this could just be an anomaly considering they’re barely clearing the fence.
The field map is that of Turner Field(I imagine they use a map of every players home field in the map for generic reasons) and not all of his shots have come at home obviously. He’s had 1 or 2 that barely cleared, but for the most part he’s getting them 5+ rows out.
Distances and location of Bourn’s HR’s this year(in reverse order, #8 to #1 for the year):
417 Ft. Right Field(Marlins Park)
422 Ft. Center Field(Turner Field)
416 Ft. Right Field(Marlins Park)
404 Ft. Right Field(Turner Field)
377 Ft. Right Field(Great American Ballpark)
411 Ft. Center Field(Great American Ballpark)
400 Ft. Right Field(Great American Ballpark)
378 Ft. Right Field(New Busch Stadium)
So he’s fairly consistent in distance and location, and for comparisons sake Turner Field is one of the most “fair” ballparks in the game as far as distances to each wall. 330 straight away right, which means he’s clearing by 40+ feet in most cases(401 to center, so his shot to center cleared by 21 feet).
Sorry, 330 is the right field foul line, but he’s still clearing by 20+ feet.
Great job David. I love the new hitter profiles. Looking at Brian McCann’s was pretty interesting. Would you mind telling me where you got the spray chart from? I can never find any good ones.
Texas Leaguers. Just go to the Pitch f/x database and search for a player, and they automatically show up.
Thanks
I have a feeling his new found power also has something to do with book on his “happy-zone” being written. Just like with J-Hey and any other tremendous rookie for that matter, scouts, teams, and pitchers will catch on to the batter’s trends. 8 homeruns are not hard to track and I imagine that every one of them is coming on a pitch that is, at minimum, inside and letter high. Although, I think his true happy-zone is a little above the letters.
I think Bourn is heady enough to know that he his not a power hitter and he is not meant to be a power hitter. His value is in his legs and base-running skills. I’m not worried whatsoever about any of the peripherals changing because of him trying to slug the ball, just as that has been noted here. But, I do think we’ll start seeing pitchers pitching him differently the rest of the season and into the next. If he jacks many more, it’s like because of a mistake by the pitcher.
Agreed on the mistakes being hit out. I never studied Bourn too much pre-Atlanta, but he seems to be making really aggressive swings on fastballs up in the zone, compared to his normal controlled and efficient swing. He’s really getting his hips open on the stuff inside, which is abnormal for someone whose swing is centered around keeping his hips in the box as long as possible. I’ve seen the same progression for Prado. He’s also opening up on high inside fastballs and hitting them off the wall or even over the fence. The difference is, both of them have mastered the art of staying in the box when needed and going the other way. Given this team’s lack of patience as compared to last year, maybe it’s something that Greg Walker is trying to instill in the whole lineup. (Apparently it hasn’t reached Freddie quite yet.) I’d like to see what the count was for Bourn’s homers. I think you’ll see a lot of 1-0 counts, but that is pure speculation.
Here ya go, Spence. Looks like a majority of his homers have been while the count is full.
Nice! Amazingly, 6 of his 8 bombs have come with 2 strikes. So, either pitchers think they can get him out by twisting him into a know up and in or they are throwing mistakes on out pitches.
Either way, he’s hammering them.
Thanks Ethan! Sorry, I was too lazy to look it up. But that is a little surprising. I guess what isn’t surprising is that all of his homers have come when he is either ahead in the count or at an even count, so he is definitely sitting fastball. It’s nice to see the lineup getting aggressive with fastballs, though. And that’s why having guys like Bourn/Prado/Chipper is important. Scouts can’t label any of them as ‘fastball hitters’ because they can get to anything anywhere. Heyward is starting to show some of those some traits, he just needs a little more putting together.
Yeah… poor Freddie. To say the guy is a free-swinger is a massive understatement. Anyone know, or can dig up, what his current swing% is?
While I love his home runs, every dinger is just another cha-ching this off-season…
:/
You beat me to it. The question is whether those cha chings put Bourn out of what I think should be a very tight negotiating band for the Braves,
These HRs will indeed jack up the initial Boras offer but they are an anomaly as he is a speed and defense guy first. He will also be entering his 30 year old season which has historically been a marker for decline of that profile. With a somewhat limited budget, does it make sense to risk potentially buying the first 5 seasons of decline at 12-15 a year? If I am Wren, I let teams like Nationals and Giants play in that space and hamstring themselves, and hold back some cash to allocate to extensions for Prado and eventually the kids.
Bourn is easily the best and most valuable player on our team. I hope the offseason priorities of the front office reflect that. I love McCann as much as the next guy, but if Wren has to choose between the two when thinking about the next several years, it’s really a no brainer. Look how the Mauer contract has handcuffed the twins, and how Molina’s may come to haunt the Cards.
I think the Braves will do what’s right, make McCann a respectable offer that works for them, and see if he takes it or not. They’re not going to reach for him. The same can be said for Bourn. The only difference is, Bourn has no reason to stay in Atlanta for less. McCann is a Georgia guy and lifetime Braves guy. He’s the leader of the clubhouse once Chipper is gone. He deserves to make a good bit of money, but I don’t think the front office will bend over backwards for him. I think the Braves should lock in Prado and the youngsters, give McCann something to look at, and use it as leverage for him to re-sign for less.
Ugh….I was wondering how long it woudl take until we got corny titles for articles.
Just kidding David, this is interesting stuff. Thanks.
When I read this article the first thing that comes to mind is Major League II. Specifically with Willie Mays Hayes- “besides, i’m a power hitter now” lol. If Bourn keeps this up, I guess we can expect Lou Brown to pop up out of no where and tell him “he’s going to be bagging groceries in a month.”
Or every time he hits the ball in the air he has to do 20 push-ups. ;)
Seems like the punishment our best friend Jose Constanza faces should he ever hit a ball in the air. I can’t honestly recall too many times he’s gotten a ball more than 6-7 feet off the ground.
Every time I watch that kid bat, I feel like I’m watching a women’s softball game. Except where the woman pitching is throwing 90mph and the woman hitting is COMPLETELY over matched.
And yet everyone who watches him that uses just the slash line numbers check from his minor league career clamor over him not getting into the majors and how he should be the LF of the future.
In fact, I got into an argument with someone yesterday claiming that he should be the left fielder of the future(or CF if we can’t keep Bourn) and Juan Francisco is a plus defender who can hit 30 bombs a year. Double dosage of idiocy in 1 statement.
I’ve also had people give me the Constanza speech. What follows is me overmatching them with words the way a pitcher overmatches Constanza at the plate.
And someone pointed out that Francisco’s numbers as a starter for a full season would translate to somewhere around .275 with 35 homers and around 90 RBI. I wanted to slap them in the face. At least they didn’t try to say he was a good defender.
@Medestruit @Spence
Were you guys both talking to Frediot?? ;)
In the article you note that “[Bourne]‘s swinging at pitches out of the zone 22.8% of the time, which is actually below his career mark of 23%.”
Just wanted to point out that swinging at 2 fewer pitches per 1000 out of the zone isn’t exactly statistically significant. Can’t we just agree that he’s not swinging at more bad pitches?
BREAKING NEWS!!!!!! ZACK GREINKE & RYAN BRAUN TRADED 2 ATLANTA BRAVES!!! Delgado, Julio, Salcedo, Bethancourt, Gilmartin……..
Wake up, Wake up… It was all A Dream BRAVES fans. We could definitely afford 40mill annually for both players, however Milwaukee will forever push BRAUN as their next Yount. CJ10 to US. I believe FW will bring in ZACK at a Julio plus Spruill type deal… Hopefully there’s a sleeper ace to be had at a more reasonable rate…Delgado is very close to turning the corner IMO…Julio may just need a consistent dose of confidence & positive performances… We have options. Trade young talent for proven horse , possibly win world series. Or give Julio, Delgado consistent big league starts…Or trade 4 two top notch relievers 4 Delgado plus..Personally GREINKE will cost too much in talent. Let Kris Meds go 2 work. He deserves the next opportunity to start …JJ days are dwindling unless he can find better command, pinpoint accuracy ala Maddux . Kris Meds in rotation will stabilize US…trade for two shut down top notch relievers and were cooking with grease..that’d be my move…..IJS
What kind of contract do you guys think Bourn will get next year? 5/75?