More on Maholm and Johnson
July 31, 2012 at 11:54 am by Ben Duronio under Atlanta Braves
Over at FanGraphs, I covered the Braves part of the Maholm and Johnson trade. I went a bit deeper into the analysis there than I did last night when the trade was announced, so check it out. Here is a snippit.
If Maholm is able to lower his home run rate back down closer to the levels he became accustomed to in Pittsburgh, he should be a very effective starter. The addition of his cutter over the past few years, specifically in an uptick in frequency this year, has allowed him to post a career high strikeout percentage and strikeout-to-walk ratio. Those numbers combined with a move to a pitcher friendly park could push his FIP- to a better than league average mark. With four consecutive years with a WAR above 2 and a current mark of 1.6, it is easy to expect Maholm to be worth the $6.5 million option next season. He is far from a flashy pitcher as his fastball velocity sits at around 87 mph, but he changes speeds well and induces ground balls roughly 50% of the time which allows him to be a a surprisingly effective pitcher. With Ben Sheets always being an injury risk, Tommy Hanson‘s velocity dropping, Mike Minor having an up-and-down season despite solid performances as of late, a solid starter like Maholm fits perfectly into the Braves plans for the next year and a half.
Johnson is the type of player the Braves have been trying to acquire for years. In trading for Matt Diaz last season, the Braves attempted to fill in the right-handed bat to spell their plethora of left-handed hitters and round out their bench. Diaz’s injury and ineffectiveness made it necessary to search for a player like Johnson, a more versatile outfielder who still hits lefties at a high level. The Braves bench has been a problem, as outside of Juan Francisco they lack a quality hitter due to Eric Hinske‘s problems at the plate and Fredi Gonzalez’s unwillingness to burn David Ross as a pinch hitter. Johnson gives the team a solid late game pinch hitter against left-handed relievers, and will allow Michael Bournand Jason Heyward to stay fresh down the stretch run.
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Nice analysis, Ben. Think you are spot on with your assessment. The move doesn’t suddenly make us a world series favorite by any means, but I don’t think that anyone can argue against it making us better overall.
Malholm > J.J. meaning the rotation gets better and Medlen stays in the bullpen meaning the bullpen stays as solid instead of regressing.
Though to be fair to starting pitchers across the league, almost anyone would have been better than JJ.
Words can’t describe how much better I feel about this deal than the Dempster/Delgado deal.
Agreed. Dempster is older, more expensive and a FA at the end of the year. Also he has been regressing, while Malholm is pitching well as of late.
Great reporting, the Braves seem to have a way to get good talent for a fair price, let’s hope this is one of those cases.
Like the Tex trade?
Or like the Bourn trade? Or the Hudson trade? Or the D Lee trade? Or the Vazquez trade (both times)?
I think he was trying to view this trade in a positive way, not negative.
That was a John Schuerholz trade. Wren has been pretty good at not screwing the future while trying to stay competitive.
This move also allows the versatile Johnson to move to LF and allow Prado to work in at 3rd giving Chip some rest when needed (invaluable). With Chip being 40 and Johnson being 35 this allows for a nice rotation that should keep the Braves fresh into the playoffs. The trade for Maholm, though not the most reliable and proven pitcher, does increase the quality and depth of our staff while also allowing us to retain one of our best pitching prospects. Though I’m sure many fans would like to see a Sit Em Down pitcher I think they’ll end up happier with the team putting up Ws. Lets just hope we can get that bat of Uggla’s working and that Adrelton’s a quick healer.
Against lefties. I would still like to see Francisco get some starts at 3B against RHP.
Agreed. I would still like to see Chipper start as many games as possible. Everyday that passes is a day closer we get to never seeing him at the hot corner again.
Give Bourn some rest, especially against the tough lefties, which are his kryptonite. Heyward some too, but I’d rather see him stay in the lineup as much as possible for development purposes.
Welcome aboard, Maholm. As a huge Rick Mahler fan, I’m thrilled to see the Braves acquire a player who is closer to Mahler, alphabetically, than anyone else in the game right now.
I was thinking you may want to go see your doctor and get some medication – or were you as a child left out of eating the Alphabit cereal ?
huh?
Sorry, but I don’t think you should compare Maholm to JJ, who was never going to start again. Maholm is really replacing Medlen or Delgado, and I just don’t think he’s better than either. He gives us some downside risk in the event Sheets or Hudson gets hurt, or Hanson continues to suck – but we already had downside protection in Medlen/Delgado/Teheran. I don’t think the pitching side of this trade makes us much, if any, better. Plus, we gave up a guy who was a top 50 prospect before TJS, a surgery with a 95% success rate. Seems like way too much value for an average SP and a bench guy. Not to mention, if we pick up his option next year, that effectively means we are going to send Teheran or Delgado to AAA again, and maybe both of them in August when Beachy is ready. At some point we have to give Teheran an extended chance in the majors.
Very good analogy.. I think you are spot on.. I want Medlin in the rotation annd he would be if he had’nt got hurt and required TJ he was out pitching Hanson of the two when he got hurt.. It messes up the smooth progression from minors to the majors the way he is used.
If TJS is such a successful thing why be concerned about Sheets longevity? Maholm has been lights out the last month and it will likely continue in a pitchers park.
I don’t think you’re looking at the trade in a broad enough scope. Although no relievers were involved, the trade strengthened the bullpen by allowing the Braves to move Medlen back into the pen. You’re right, it’s probably not fair to compare Maholm to J.J. But, what do you think happens if Medlen falters in the new role? There’s no guarantee that he was going to do well, regardless of past stats. What if Sheets gets hurt? What if Hanson’s keeps struggling? What if Minor goes back downhill. What if Huddy gets hurt? We’d be right back into pushing Delgado and Teheran into a role they are not COMPLETELY ready for.
Fact of the matter is, Maholm stabilizes the rotation. Yes, all those “ifs” still exist as they do in any rotation. But the addition of Maholm allows for the other guys to only have to make spot starts instead of having to start the rest of the season.
Oh yeah… sorry, I forgot to wrap all that into my original point. If we don’t make that trade and indeed keep Medlin in the lineup, then who is a RELIABLE long-arm out of the bullpen when Hanson, Minor, Delgado (if he makes a spot start) shit their pants?
Medlen has NEVER been a good starter. at best he’s been an avg starter. Yet he’s been an elite reliever.
I seriously don’t get where some of you have come up with this ida that Meds is a good starter….. his numbers say you are wrong
I think Medlen was solid during his stint. The Braves won like 13 of his 14 starts so he never had a blowup game like our current group of starters are capable of. However, this season it makes since to have him in the bullpen. It think he has the ability and deserves the right at some point to get a chance to start again since it has been two years. he could be s servicable back end starter someday.
Aren’t you getting a little too giddy about Maholm? His xFIP over the last 4 years is 4.18, 4.41, 4.03 and 4.20. Delgado this year has a 4.20 xFIP. I just don’t see how this guy is better than what we already have.
Medlen has great numbers as a starter, in his career 18 starts the braves are 14-4 id say that’s some quality starting pitching
he also averaged 5.5 runs of support per start with a 4.32 ERA he wasn’t a good pitcher, he was an okay pitcher who got lucky.
If you are still using pitcher wins to gauge the quality of the pitcher, you are on the wrong site
Numbers from 2 years ago for a pitcher who has had one full year in the majors. Small sample size city.
Now don’t get me wrong, I think he can do a great job coming in and spot starting here and there. I’m just not sold on him as a regular rotation member
@Brent But we didn’t give up what we already had to get him. We basically fixed the problem in the rotation (J.J.) and have given Delgado and Teheran more time in the minors to develop as a result. There’s no point in comparing Maholm to Delgado as he is NOT the one being replaced.
What if a Ant had wings. You can what if all day. This is a good move for this year. Win now!!!!!!! Tomorrow will bring new challenges, and the Braves can deal with them at that time. Think positive….
Good point Brent, but you answer your own worry. If beachy progresses as he should and Teheran and Delgado take the next step well Paul could be a very nice trade piece next July that’s expendable.
Uggla Jair and Jack Wilson to Detroit for Jhonny Peralta and Beniot
I think you may have to throw Rico Brogna in to make that deal work.
“T’would you perchance partake in exchanging your cake for these turds of mine?”
“turds of mine” meaning J.J.?
JJ, Wilson, Uggla turd basket.
How about JJ and Uggla to Texas for Kinsler and Hamilton.
No way! Hamilton is too big of an injury risk. The Braves would be getting fleeced in that trade! Uggla was an all-star this year and JJ was an all star last year.
Yeah that’s gonna happen. Texas owes the Braves for that Texeira fiasco, but that one is a bit much
From now on I’m going to assume that you’re just a really funny person, bobby. I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt. So that I don’t have to scream in anger every time I read one of your posts.
This is absurd…I cannot fool myself into thinking that this idiot is not an idiot. I am going to have to stop reading the comments, he is literally ruining my day.
Or trade Hanson – a Boras client anyway if I remember right
We could trade Hanson to the Padres in the offseason for Chase Headley. We’ll need a new 3rd Baseman once Chipper retires, but instead of moving Prado to 3B and looking for a new Left Fielder, we could try and get Headley from the Padres and keep Prado in LF. I have no idea what the Padres would be looking for in a Headley deal though.
Yes, let’s not wait until it’s too late like we did with JJ!
JJ and Minor are completely different. The biggest worry with Hanson is injury while JJ just can’t get people out unless he locates perfectly. Hanson has the ability to still get people out even when he loses control. But the injury worries and Boras future mean we may need to move him in the next two years.
I don’t know why I put Minor I meant Hanson.
Headley is going to cost a lot to get for what he brings to the table. Prado will be better than Headley at 3B and it is easier to find a managable piece for LF.
You’re probably right; I was just trying to think of someone who could help out on offense once Chipper’s gone, and Headley came to mind.
Does anybody know how much money the Cubs sent the Braves in this trade. Hopefully is was the difference in Maholm’s contract this season and his option for next season, about 2.5 mil.
Maholm’s ERA over his past 7 appearances is 1.02! The guy is as hot or hotter than any pitcher in the majors right now, terrific addition; especially since we also acquired the valuable Johnson.
Great job to Frank Wren!
Nobvody can forget last season collapse and with Hudson’s ankle problems, Hanson shoulder problems and Sheet’s injury past, it was a great move to add another quality starter. Medlen will likely go back to the bullpen, but I have a feeling Wren is still working the phones in an attempt to aquire another bullpen arm!
Does it make any sense for the team to try out Randall Delgado in the bullpen for the rest of the season? It would be really nice to have another hard throwing RH reliever. I guess the downside to that move would be (a) loss if rotation depth if a starter is injured; (b) negative impact on Delgado’s development; (c) service-time concerns; and (d) Delgado’s poor control, which makes him a risky choice to bring in to the game with runners on base. Any thoughts about whether the potential upside outweighs these concerns?
I asked basically the same question in the other thread Deac. The response to me was that they were wanting Delgado to further develop his breaking pitches which needs to be done in the minors. If it were only a control issue, then he could probably work it out as a long reliever in the majors.
If he goes to the bullpen it would be after the minor league seasons wrap up in Septemeber for him and/or Teheran. It’s possible, teams have done it before. The Rays with Price and Cardinals with Wainright did it before moving them to the rotation the next year.
No it does not make sense
Delgado in the bullpen sounds downright stressful.
The biggest difference with this deal over the Dempster for Delgado deal is that we also obtained Reed Johnson, which the club has been attempting to do since last season.
Not to mention we get a pitcher who wants to be here and grew up a Braves fan, instead of Dempster who obviously didn’t want to be here. In addition to the fact that he’s more than a rental, with a reasonable club option for next season and 30 instead of 35-years old.
Throw in the fact that Delgado could still help us this season, where AV is still recovering from his TJ surgery. I know AV could turn into a very solid back of the bullpen reliever, but nobody knows how he will pitch when here returns from Tommy John surgery, same goes for Beachy.
We get a productive left-handed starter, who’s been light’s out over his past 7 appearances and a quality backup right-handed outfielder, which also solidifies our bench.
I love this trade!
Geez, look at what the Cubs ended up taking from Dempster. We would have given up our #2 prospect and the Rangers get him without giving up anyone in their top 20 prospects???
Yes, they gave up 2 Class A prospects to the Cubs, but nobody close to Delgado. Obviously the price dropped drastically with just minutes left to the trade deadline!
#Leverage #FailDempster
Wait so you’re assuming that Maholm’s option will be picked up? Doesn’t that leave Atlanta with ALOT of SP next year? And many of them young. And in light of that, do you disregard Bowman’s talk of the Braves going after Greinke in FA? Even without him SP includes:
Hudson, Beachy, Hanson, Minor, Delgado, Maholm, Teheran, and Gilmartin pushing to be ML ready.
That’s A LOT. Are you assuming several more future trades?
As long as Maholm’s option appears to be at or below market value, it makes sense to pick it up – he can always be traded after the fact. Assuming no new injuries or free agent signings, the opening day starting rotation would become Hudson, Hanson, Minor, Maholm, Delgado/Teheran. Hopefully Beachy will return around All-Star Break, but you can’t really plan on that – recall that Medlen took 14 months to recover from TJ surgery. There is also no reason to reserve a rotation spot for Gilmartin in 2013. If the team signs Zach Greinke this off-season, then you can explore trading Hanson or Delgado for a starting CF, LF, or 3B.
Bad idea to commit the kind of money Greinke wants.
I rather re-sign Bourn and pick up Maholm’s option rather than commit all that money to Greinke.
Personally, I don’t think the Braves are going after Greinke during the offseason.
agreed – hate to spend that kind of money on Greinke, and though I usually do not pay attention to these kind of things, I would be worried about the guys emotions getting the best of him at the wrong times. If you are going to spend that kind of money, I want an absolute sure thing (which doesn’t exist). Maholm’s option is going to be a great deal next year, and gives us a great 3 or 4….blah blah blah everything else that’s already been said.
Medlen throws a complete game!
Eh shit. Thought MLB app said “5 end”. Was end of the 5th. Joke’s on me.
Loron 07/31/2012
“That was a John Schuerholz trade. Wren has been pretty good at not screwing the future while trying to stay competitive.”
Totally agree with this statement. If anything he could, at times, be a little more aggressive. But they have put together a nice young team that is set to compete for a while. Hoping for that aggressiveness to show up in the off season when time to re-sign Bourn and maybe steal Grenke from the Angels or get a big bat for LF in FA.