8/8 News, Links, Discussion: Braves-Phillies, Hanson Update, Bourn’s Suitors
August 8, 2012 at 1:04 pm by David Lee under Atlanta Braves
Braves lineup: Michael Bourn (CF), Martin Prado (LF), Jason Heyward (RF), Chipper Jones (3B), Freddie Freeman (1B), Dan Uggla (2B), David Ross (C), Paul Janish (SS), Tim Hudson (P).
Phillies lineup: Jimmy Rollins (S, SS), Domonic Brown (L, LF), Chase Utley (L, 2B), Ryan Howard (L, 1B), John Mayberry (R, CF), Nate Schierholtz (L, RF), Erik Kratz (R, C), Kevin Frandsen (R, 3B), Kyle Kendrick (R, P).
Game 3 vs. Phillies
After Cole Hamels shut the Braves down in a 3-0 loss, the two teams will face off in the rubber game tonight.
Kyle Kendrick will start for the Phillies. Kendrick’s poor peripherals have caught up to him this season after a fluky 3.22 ERA in 114.2 innings last year. He owns a 4.45 ERA and 4.75 xFIP in 14 starts and 93 innings this season, with a 16.5% strikeout rate and 8.6% walk rate, both career highs.
Kendrick maintains a ground ball rate above 40%, but he has always relied on poor contact and BABIP to get by. He does have an 8.4% swinging strike rate this year, but many of those balls in play that found gloves last year have equaled out this year.
Expect a large amount of fastballs that cut and sink, as well as a fair amount of changeups and sliders.
Tim Hudson will start for the Braves. He’s coming off seven-plus innings of allowing one unearned run and four hits against the Astros, and he’s beaten the Phillies twice since the beginning of July.
Game time is 7:05. Atlanta: SportSouth. Philadelphia: CSN.
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Update (2:30p): Grant Brisbee of Baseball Nation chimes in with his thoughts on Kimbrel and Chapman.
Update (2:25p): Gregg Doyel of CBS Sports writes that Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman should be considered for the Cy Young Award this season. This is all fine and well if you look at counting stats among the best relievers in the game, but the fact is Kimbrel and Chapman simply don’t pitch enough innings to provide the same value that a Johnny Cueto, R.A. Dickey or Clayton Kershaw will this season. It is very difficult for me to justify giving a pitcher who throws 75 innings an award over a pitcher who throws 230 innings (h/t @rj_brown77).
Braves.com recap for Tuesday’s loss.
AJC quotes following Tuesday’s loss. Mike Minor: “I didn’t start off too well. I didn’t have my stuff really early on. I pretty much just battled throughout the game, hung a slider to Howard and they got two runs easy right there. Other than that it was a couple base hits, a walk, I was just all over the place.”
Tommy Hanson is feeling better and expects to throw a bullpen session Friday. Hanson is eligible to come off the disabled list Aug. 15 and expects to do just that.
Bill Parker of Baseball Prospectus writes on the mystery that is Jason Heyward’s future (sub. required).
Buster Olney’s blog post today is headlined by the two big suitors expected for Michael Bourn this offseason: the Nationals and Phillies (Insider required). I’ve been predicting the Nationals will sign Bourn since the day the Braves traded for him, but the Phillies are a realistic option, as well. Either way, I would say it’s a strong possibility the Braves will have to face him often.
David Schoenfield ranks the center fielders in baseball, with Bourn coming in at No. 6. I have no problem with this, as Josh Hamilton is the only one you could halfway have an argument with. But Hamilton’s production and a much higher wOBA are good reasons for ranking him higher.
Mike Bauman of MLB.com writes on the signing of Ben Sheets as a difference-maker for the Braves.
Glenn DuPaul of The Hardball Times posts a study on the value of WAR and how to use it properly.
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Huddy will seal the series tonite for the braves, no problem. And my wife would like to thank you guys for sending me to Draftstreet!! I am addicted, that stuff is awesome but my better half is not impressed, it was bad enough during football season but now its all year round.
IF he does go I am dying the Braves make a go at either Hamilton or Victorino but I don’t see the Braves signing Vic because I have a feeling he’ll stay in LA and Hamliton may cause the Braves some dollars but I am saying would be nice if he can come in for cheap. I would offer him a big contract only and if only the Braves get rid of Uggla money.
If we lose out on Bourn, I think it’s more likely we shift Heyward into CF and we go after LF and RF bats.
i’d like to see us go after Justin Upton for a RF if we move Heyward to CF, you could always leave Prado in LF and give Francisco a season at 3B
I wouldn’t mind him or Swisher.
Why would Hamilton go to the Braves “for cheap?”
Admitting that I’m not an Inside subscriber, why aren’t the Braves trying to ink Bourn? He’s been huge in the lead-off spot!
Posting this again in this thread because it just HAS to be seen by anyone that’s a Chipper fan… http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ttZNc0Nfxg
MLBTR is predicting 16 – 22 million/season for Bourn. Two thoughts:
1. If that is the price, the Braves will lose him
2. I pity the team that signs him to that contract. Bourn is well on his way to either the best or second best season of his career, at age 29. It doesn’t seem like there’s anywhere to go but down for a leadoff hitter who has to hit his way on base….
Look for the Braves to acquire a cost-controlled CF this offseason, and to let Bourn leave…
I agree that the price would effectively eliminate the Braves from the bidding. But, that doesn’t mean they won’t make him an offer. Still, I think it’s unfair to say that he is on the decline and not worth the cost.
A player that relies on speed for almost all of his value, both on offense and defense, is clearly going to lose a lot of speed after age 30. I think the problem really is, are teams willing to sign him for 5 years and have a 34/35 year old making 20mm with no more tools.
I still don’t think that’s fair to say. Why is “30″ the magic number the cut off for speed? Rickey Henderson stole 93 bases at the age of 30. Stole 53 at the age of 35. Think Terrell Owens just ran the 40 in under 4.5 at well over the age of 30…
This guy is a professional athlete that I’m sure trains his body all year long… not some softball player from down the road drinking a 6-pack every night. Let’s give him the credit he deserves here.
I love Bourn too but you can’t compare or say he will hold up like Ricky Henderson. Ricky was the best ever of any player with that toolset.
I never said he would compare to Rickey or anyone else for that matter. Just that because you hit 30 doesn’t mean you slow down.
I say it is fair – if he is not on the decline now, he will be a year or two into that contract. The only player anywhere near the top of the board in steals and over 31 is Ichiro (18). Ricky Henderson’s almost never happen.
@Silver
Wait… I guess you’re missing Juan Pierre 27 SB and 34 yo… Shane Victorino 26 SB and 31 yo… Jimmy Rollins 17 SB 33 yo… Angel Pagan 19 SB and 31..
And, if you drop that magic number of 30 down one more year, you get Jose Reyes and Ryan Braun. I’m sorry, but 30 is NOT the start of a decline. 32-33 maybe. But not 30.
If we don’t re-sign him, it’s not because we don’t think he’s worth it. It’s because we simply can’t afford it.
Juan Pierre – 67 SB @ 30 y/o and now in steady decline – first negative WAR season last year and is now benefitting from a career BABIP. Looks to have peaked at 29/30. *pulled up a custom graph at fangraphs that for some reason does not include pierre.
Rollins – noticable drop in WAR after age 30 season (5.6 to 3.0) and has not been anywhere near 5 since. Its safe to say he has declined from his glory days, and seemed to peak at 29/30.
Victorino – Last season was his age 30 season and fantastic – his season this year is not nearly as good (not counting speed – .100 less SLG / .030 less OBP, not explained by only .018 less BABIP). Its to be seen whether he is in decline or not because he is only 31 – but that decline usually starts around now.
Pagan – a bad example. He had one fluke year and his baserunning skills are terrible – usually around a 20% CS rate.
29-31 year old guys are usually in their prime. The point is that your gonna give Bourn that much money for two years when he might be worth it, and two years when he most likely won’t.
I agree I think we make an offer, we have to make an offer but I feel we are going to lose a bidding war. If we don’t get Bourn I hope Wren would look into trading for Upton and parra from Arizona. It would give us 3 good young outfielders for the next few years that are affordable. I wonder if a Hanson or Delgado plus an outfielder like Cunningham or Lipka gets it done. Maybe another pitcher like Spruill is needed or Terdoslavich.
Yeah. I think Wren will probably do something like 4/$60M, and then when Boras rejects it out of hand, he’ll say “OK. Here’s the qualifying offer for you to ignore – thanks for the draft pick”. We just can’t afford to tie up much more than 4/60.
As much as I love having Bourn hitting leadoff I dont think he is worth 15million per year. I feel he is worth 8-12 million a year
I like Bourn, but he’s not worth $16-20 million a year when the Braves have never paid Chipper Jones more than $16.1 million in any season. Now is not the time to be frivolous just becuase a ton of money is coming off the books. Bourn will be a good CF for someone, but it won’t be the Braves. I’d like to see the Braves go after Ben Revere, but I think the Twins would be more likely to send Span packing.
I think that Braves should consider signing Chris Young if they can’t get Bourn. Young is having a bad season but he has been pretty successful in recent years. Plus he is an even better defender than Bourn. His only major concern is his ability to right handed pitchers.
Great article by DuPaul. I have been meaning to do that analysis too, but was too lazy to dig up the data. The agreement between WAR and real wins is astounding.
Do you speed up after 30?
No, but time does.
What does that have to do with anything? You’re telling me you wouldn’t sign Bourn to a 4-5 yr contract merely because you believe he’ll decline? Granted, I’m not saying we should pay him what he and Boras are going to ask. I’m a firm believe that he won’t be in Atlanta next year. But, I think that’s only because we can’t afford him and not because we think he’s going to turn into some schmoe.
It’s just not a risk worth taking with the Braves payroll. Not saying he wont be worth it but if it turned into another Uggla type contract with poor production it could screw the Braves for years. Braves could not take two of those at once. For a team that can afford it he is definitly work the risk.
Oh I totally agree. There’s no way we pay him the roughly $60 million contract he’s going to ask for. But again, that goes back to just not being able to afford it. People acting like the guy is going to fall off the face of the earth just because he’s turning 30 is ludicrous.
I find it unlikely he has another season like this one. If he regresses to his career norms somebody will be paying $16-$20 mill a year for a .720 OPS guy with a good glove and stolen base%.
IMO, Bourn will not be worth $15 mill a year much less 16-22. His glove swill give him a lot of value as he ages, sure, but I see a Carl Crawford part deaux situation brewing for whoever overpays for him.
There is a definite correlation between performance and advanced baseball age. Not expecting or calculating a decline into talk about a 4-5 year contract for Bourn would be incredibly foolish.
For those thinking Fredi hasn’t been screwing the pooch lately, let’s ask why McCann gets a day off today against a righty, when he played last night against one of the best lefties in the game. Ross’ splits against LHP are very good. OH! McCann hit a home run against Hamels!
Small sample, shitbird.
@viva
That one is easy… Hudson is pitching. Just because they say Ross isn’t Hudsons personal catcher doesn’t mean its true…
Anyone else unable to pull up anything but the free games on mlb.com? I’ve got a subscription and I can’t get the game up.
Scratch that. I’m only getting the Cubs game, and it’s not even the free game. Nothing else will come up
Nothing is working (but the Cubs). What radio station is the game being broadcast on? I’ve listened to it a million times but can’t remember. I can only find WCNN the Fan which is just lame ESPN football talk.
You can try the http://www.espn1021.com site out of Savannah they have all of the games and streaming.
Hudson has a higher BA than Uggla. :-/
I fucking hate Ryan Howard.
Praise the Lord, Dan Uggla drove in some runs!
The Nats have 4 runs. 1 on a balk, 2 on a hr by their pitcher, 1 on an error. Not our year.
If the payroll flexibility we’ll have this offseason isn’t used to lock up Bourn, or will we do with it? Are we looking down the line every signing Mac two seasons from now? The idea of putting a lot of money into a catcher is very scary. I think a Molina or Mauer type contract for McCann. which he is sure to get from someone, would be a mistake. I love Brian just as much as the next guy and think he is a vital part of our team, but is he on the decline already, or is it just a bad year? We all know that catching destroys batting skills early in careers.
I think he’s in decline. He seems to wear down by the time August and September roll around every year, but this year is showing how much of a load he has had to carry since day 1. He’ll be a good C/DH for someone, but unless the Braves think it’s going to be easier to unload a bad contract in 2015 than it is in 2012, trading him before offering an extension is probably the best course of action. He’s been a hell of a player and catcher, but there always seems to be something going on, whether it’s his eyes, a hole in his swing, gaining weight/losing weight, or catching 140 games a year which kills him as the season goes along.