Freddie Freeman Is Improving Exactly How We Want Him To
August 13, 2012 at 10:38 am by Ben Duronio under Atlanta Braves
Freddie Freeman impressed in his rookie season as a 21-year-old rookie, with a 118 wRC+ while posting decent power and on base skills.
His walks weren’t that high, his strikeouts weren’t that low, his power wasn’t that great, and his average wasn’t tremendous, but he did enough in all of those categories to put up a solid rookie season. For a first baseman, it was far from tremendous, but for his age it was pretty impressive.
This year, he has taken steps in all of the right directions. His BABIP has declined from a probably excessively high .339 to a more sustainable .318 while his average is an identical .282. The fact that he has continued to hit at that same pace despite the drop in BABIP is very important to his on base skills.
Speaking of which, his walk rate has increased to 9% from 8.3%, a marginal increase but one that is headed in the correct direction. Early in the season he was very impatient at the plate but he has seemingly focused much more on this aspect as of late and really improved. Because of this, his on base percentage has risen about seven overall points from last year based on walks alone. Along with his increased walk rate, he has cut his strikeouts down. This has been an even bigger drop, from a 22.4% mark last year to 19% this year. That drop in combination with the increased walk rate has seen his BB/K ratio improve to 0.48. That is not a tremendously impressive level but it is very solid considering he is not exactly the most patient hitter on the planet.
What has been most impressive about Freeman’s rookie campaign is his improvements in power. The home runs themselves have not really improved, as he has 15 for the year and ZiPS projects that he will hit six more this season, leaving him at an identical 21 home runs as last year. Where he has improved is in his doubles. He already has 27 this year after finishing last year with 32. He will shatter that mark and probably push 40 doubles, which could give him more than 60 extra base hits on the year — a very solid number for a 22-year-old sophomore.
Freeman’s improvements have come exactly how one would expect them to, and the Braves offense has been solid much of the year because of Freeman’s production. Yes, Prado and Heyward are having significantly better years at the plate and Michael Bourn’s production in centerfield easily trumps all the production they got from the position last year, but Freeman’s modest but solid improvements across the board have been a key for the offense this year. He seems to be on a standard plane of production and hopefully this continues throughout the season and on to next year. He probably will never be a superstar player, but he does have the potential to be a very good first baseman for a team that has struggled finding a consistent player at the position for decades.
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The most interesting FF 2012 stat: His 29.6% line drive percentage is 2nd in all of MLB, only behind Votto’s 30.2%. That being the case, it’s a wonder his BABiP is not higher than the ‘sustainable’ .318.
Freddie had one of the lowest pop rates among qualified batters last season. This year, he’s right around average.
Votto’s infield fly ball percentages the last few years:
2009: 1.4%
2010: 0%
2011: 0.6%
2012: 0 %
WOW!
Holy chit!
It’s amazing to me that he does keep such a high line drive % with that slight uppercut of a swing he has. I guess that with his height, the uppercut still manages to get on the upper half of the ball.
His swing makes me think he is a ridiculously good golfer, at least in terms of his drives. I wonder how far he drives it compared to the rest of the team.
Yeah I have to agree with you there. Couple that swing with the massive body and I imagine he’s hitting it 330+. Now, whether that’s in a straight line or not is left to be seen. ;)
I can hit it roughly 250 on a consistent basis, it’s just not always in the direction I’m hoping for.
My favorite part about Freddie is how he is never against going backside and he actually tries to hit the ball where it’s pitched on a regular basis. His spray charts look pretty similar except this year, he is pulling the ball out of the park more so than his rookie season. I don’t know if that’s necessarily a bad thing though. But, great piece Ben. Good to see Freddie improving.
I honestly hope one day that we stop defining a players success by the position in which he plays. Going by the numbers “expected” to be put up by a “1st baseman” Freddie will likely never be a superstar. But, that shouldn’t detract anything from the job that he is doing. While just the average joe stats, a .282 average with 21 homeruns is a fantastic season regardless of position for any 25 year old, let alone a 21-yr old rookie
One thing I would still like to see Freddie change is his swing percentage. It still seems like he swings very often.
I don’t know. You can make the case that Freeman is the best first baseman in the NL after Joey Votto. He’s easily one of the ten best first baseman in the MLB, and within time can push the top-five. That’s pretty superstar-ish.
Goldschmidt is better, and I wouldn’t venture to call him a superstar at all.
Right now, there is just a very lackluster group of NL 1B. Being at the top of that group while he is far behind many AL 1B does not make him a superstar. It is no slight against him, the top tier 1B usually put up > .400 OBP seasons with 30+ home runs. Not being able to do that does not mean you aren’t a very good player.
It’s about replacement-level (or position average). What players do is not in a vacuum, and the proper comparison is what other players at the same position do. While some argue that being far above average at one position (e.g., catcher) means a team can sacrifice some offense at another, the better view is to compare each position to the rest of the league. Thus, it is appropriate to consider whether a player, especially at first or a corner outfield position, produces well enough (which of course includes offense, defense, and baserunning).
I can see it in using the position standards for judging a team’s depth, needs, or even financial contracts. But just as a standalone player assessment, it doesn’t seem useful to me. In other words, what Albert Pujols does in Los Angeles has absolutely no bearing on what Freddie does in Atlanta. Pujols hitting .330 with a gazillion homeruns doesn’t make Freddie any less valuable to the Braves. Only Freddie controls that.
But when your shortstop (Simmons) gets hurt and you go out looking for a replacement, you end up with Janish, who does virtually nothing offensively. On the other hand, if Freeman were to get hurt and you went out looking for a 1B, you would NEVER want a 1B with Janish’s stats. That’s a HUGE dropoff from what Freeman was giving you.
It doesn’t have an affect on his performance, but his performance relative to the league average at his position is what matters here. A shortstop who hits like Pujols would be much more valuable than a first baseman who hits like Pujols, since the odds are the replacement at shortstop hits more like a shortstop and the replacement at first hits more like a first baseman.
In short, first baseman generally have the body and skill set to hit much better than every other position. They are generally bigger, stronger guys and defense at the position is less important than it is at most other positions.
For those reasons, you have to consider the position a player plays. A first baseman who hits how Freddie has is certainly a quality player, but not as quality as one who would hit at the same level while playing a different position — aside from primary DH.
Here is an on hands example. The average first baseman wRC+ this season is 104 while the average shortstop wRC+ is 85. That’s a humungous difference in overall offensive production. That needs to be included when analyzing a player’s value to a team.
@Ben
So how does that figure in to a player like Prado? His stature would never allow him to hit the same numbers the average 1st Basement would hit, but if he were thrust into that position, does that make him any less valuable? I’d say not.
Just seems like a quirky system given that many players can play multiple positions.
Yes, it would make him less valuable as a full-time 1B. As a short-term option it does not have much of an affect, as he hits like a quality third baseman does. You also have to include defensive value, as Prado would be one of the better first baseman in the game if he were a full-time first baseman, so his value would probably take a bit less of a hit when that is considered.
Replacement level is one of the key factors in sabermetrics, whether you value WAR highly or not it is a concept that is rather generally accepted. First base is the most offensive driven position in the NL, and it is why a guy like Ben Zobrist or even Prado as you mentioned usually end up being very valuable to teams — even more so than guys who simply mash at first base.
Chris,
That is exactly the point. The replacement level at first base is much higher than it is at shortstop. The drop off from offensive production from what Freeman does to what a replacement player — like Eric Hinske, is about the same as it would be from Simmons to Janish if given a full season worth of plate appearances. The difference is that Hinske would put up much better numbers, but in relation to league average production from shortstop and first base they would be rather comparable.
If I am not explaining this as well as I feel I am, this portion of the FanGraphs library does a good job at explaining replacement level.
http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/misc/war/replacement-level/
@Ben
I was making the same point you were. If that’s not clear, I apologize. You’re a better wordsmith than me!
@Ben
No, I think you’re explaining it just fine and I am one that does pay close attention to WAR. I’m guessing those calculations also figure in position?
I was just looking at it from an individual performance standpoint where you were looking at it from how the performance affects the team as a whole.
Thanks for all the clarification!
it’s important to differ between players based on where they play. You must admit that it’s no big deal to be a .280/.350/.400 20 HR hitting 1st baseman, but those are elite SS offensive numbers,
Based on fWAR Freeman is having the 8th best first base season this year and 4th in the NL (after Votto, Goldschmidt and Laroche)
Prado .341 wOBA
Heyward .354 wOBA
Freeman .355 wOBA
…
wouldn’t say Prado and Heyward are having significantly better years
Think the “better years” comment was in reference to their bad years last year. Not meant for comparison to Freddie’s this year.
Correct, they are not having better years than Freddie at the plate, but rather better years than they had last season.
I believe he was saying Prado and Heyward are having better years than last year.
I see. I blame the English language for having multiple interpretations of the same sentence.
Also worth noting – Freeman’s defensive metrics (at both Fangraphs and Baseball Reference) have notably improved this season. I hope that the strides made by Freeman and Heyward this season will reduce the pressure to make an inadvisable play for a superstar to replace Chipper (i.e signing Josh Hamilton, trading for Jacoby Ellsbury or Justin Upton, or overpaying for Michael Bourn) and instead allow Wren to maximize limited revenue with smart bargain shopping, franchise friendly contract extensions, and high upside trades.
I think one of the big things is how UZR disliked him, for whatever reason, last year. It could be positioning or something of the sort, as I think the team has done a much better job all around in getting their players in appropriate positions this year — as I mentioned with SNY.
Overall he is rated at +1 in terms of DRS when you combine the past two seasons, which is about right where I would rate him — average to slightly above average. Nothing special overall, as he is very good with his hands but rather lackluster in terms of range.
I actually do believe that Freeman will be a superstar. Even half way through his rookie season, I began to see a lot of similarities with Joey Votto. I think the power numbers will continue to increase along with average. I don’t think its unreasonable to expect .300 BA with 30-35 HR a year for the next decade. I think Freeman will end up being the franchise player, more so than Heyward (kind of the way Votto and Bruce have ended up in Cinci), though I do love the adjustments Heyward made with his swing this past offseason.
I don’t disagree that they have similar traits, but the jump Votto made after his rookie season is a jump that no player can really be expected to make, even with a player having a similar skill set.
I could certainly see him being a poor man’s version of Votto, but I doubt he ever hits for as much power or walks as frequently as Votto does. Even in terms of sheer bat control, while Freeman is good in this regard and getting better, Votto is probably one of the top two or three players over the past 10 years in this quality.
Can he make a huge jump and become a top level player? Definitely. Would I bet on it? No. And again, that’s no slight against him. If he can regularly post a wRC+ between 125-135, that will be great value and he will have a stellar career.
The thing that makes Votto a lot more valuable than Freeman (aside from the excess power) is the ability to take a walk. Votto’s walk rate (17.8%) is nearly twice Freeman’s (9%). Votto’s rate was only 10% in his first full MLB season, but his minor league numbers were always higher than that. Freeman has never had a high walk rate. In fact, this season’s 9% is the highest of his professional career.
Keep in mind that Votto didn’t play his first full season in the majors until he was 24. As far as the power is concerned, Votto has only eclipsed 30 HR once so far in his career and same with 40 doubles. Freeman is almost there already. If Freddie didn’t have his vision problems earlier in the year, I think his average would be very close to .300. Ultimately, I have to agree with the walks, but I don’t think the difference overall is as much as your making it out to be.
Is he almost there? I don’t know that he’s “close” to a 30 HR season.
Obviously not this year, but I meant one of the next two seasons. You’re right though, he would need to increase his HR numbers by nearly 50% to reach it. That said, I have more confidence in it happening than not happening. And Votto’s obviously the gold standard right now as far as hitters are concerned, so it is a little leap comparing the two but I think Freeman is moving in that direction.
Heywards defensive and baserunning ability make his ceiling pretty much endless. Unless Freeman can get his OBP up around .380+ I’m not so sure he will ever be more than a top 10 first baseman. Where Heyward may be the league’s best right fielder.
@Chris W
The stat you posted in the first post of the thread confirms my unscientific observation from watching the games: when Freeman hits the ball, he squares it up and hits it hard on a line more often than just about anyone else in the NL. I actually think he has been a little unlucky on his BABIP, considering how many line drives he does hit.
@Driver8
Possibly due to the month Freddie spent swinging at pitches he couldn’t see…
Could you argue that if Freddie walked at a higher percentage at some point, like around 10-11% he could easily be a .300 hitter. I know that is a tough adjustment cause he is a 1st pitch swinger(Sort of like Ian Desmond who in his 1st few years was told to be more patient try to work the count more(being a leadoff hitter) was not that great of a hitter, then this year he was allowed to be more aggressive and it is paying off).
In 156 PA over July and August, Freeman is posting a BB% over 13% and a K% under 13%. Considering that this sample is approaching the threshold for BB% stabilization and well past the K% stabilization, is it reasonable to predict that future production will more closely resemble these rates than the career rates of 8.4% and 21.3%? I am be reading this Baseball Prospectus article (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/a/14215) incorrectly, as it doesn’t really address the prospect of selecting in-season samples with arbitrary endpoints, but if we took their suggestion and weighted the recent production at 75% and past production at 25% to predict the future, we would be looking at something like an 11-12% walk rate and a roughly 15% strikeout rate.
Here’s a question that could help build an answer: has Freeman ever come close to similar %’s in other arbitrary endpoints?
If yes, then these are probably just small aberrations.
If no, then perhaps this current period of time reflects a fundamental change.
I agree that Freddie will never match Jason’s defense and base running. But I would much rather have had Freddie at the plate in New York last night with the game hanging in the balance than Jason.
And Jason waves at another ball in the dirt in another late-game clutch situation.
14-0
Reminds me of Adam LaRoche…