8/14 News, Links, Discussion: Braves-Padres, Six-Man Rotation Thoughts, Injury Updates
August 14, 2012 at 9:02 am by David Lee under Atlanta Braves
Braves lineup: Michael Bourn (CF), Martin Prado (LF), Freddie Freeman (1B), Chipper Jones (3B), Brian McCann (C), Dan Uggla (2B), Reed Johnson (RF), Paul Janish (SS), Tim Hudson (P).
Padres lineup: Alexi Amarista (L, 2B), Everth Cabrera (S, SS), Chase Headley (S, 3B), Yonder Alonso (L, 1B), Mark Kotsay (L, LF), Will Venable (L, RF), Cameron Maybin (R, CF), John Baker (L, C), Clayton Richard (L, P).
Game 2 vs. Padres
The Braves fell to the Padres 4-1 on Monday as Eric Stults shut Atlanta down over seven-plus innings. The Nationals blew out the Giants in their series opener, making it a 5.5 game lead for Washington.
Because the Braves seem to struggle against soft-tossing lefties, it won’t get any easier as they face Clayton Richard in the second game. Richard has had a solid season for the Padres, earning a 3.79 ERA and 4.06 xFIP over 161.2 innings. His strikeout percentage is down to only 12.7%, which is why I discounted his strong first half, but he continues to pitch well, including a complete-game shutout against the Cubs last time out.
Richard’s success has come in large part by a 5.3% walk rate combined with a 55.3% ground ball rate. At Petco, that kind of combination usually spells success, and it’s no different in this case. He holds a .280 wOBA against and a 11.3% HR/FB rate at home compared to .326 and 16.9% on the road.
Richard will throw a sinking fastball in the low-90s paired with a solid changeup to keep right-handed batters honest and a slider he keeps down and away to lefties. He will also slow down the breaking pitch to around 80 miles per hour at times as a curveball.
Tim Hudson is coming off perhaps his worst outing of the season in which he allowed six runs in 4.1 innings against the Phillies. It was the shortest start of his season, as well as the most home runs allowed in a game at two. He’ll be looking to get back on track against a slightly weaker Padres offense.
Game time is 7:10. Atlanta: SportSouth. San Diego: Fox Sports San Diego.
MLB.com preview
STATS preview
Six-Man Rotation Announced
The Braves announced they will go to a six-man rotation for the next two weeks to give their starters a couple extra days of rest over the stretch. The move will begin when Tommy Hanson is activated from the disabled list and inserted into the lineup Friday against the Dodgers.
While the announcement has caused a splash around the community and on Twitter, it’s one that shouldn’t have much of an impact. A couple days worth of rest is nice to the ears, but over the course of a season, it’s not a big factor. And while the main complaint for six-man rotations is the fact that your best pitcher isn’t starting as often, the Braves don’t have a clear No. 1 starter, and they are all on a fairly equal playing field right now.
Fredi Gonzalez said he will take the five best pitchers at the end of August and use them throughout September. If he remains true to this, there’s a good chance Kris Medlen will be one of those five. Medlen has allowed just three runs in 16-plus innings as a starter. Hanson will need to rebound quickly once he comes off the disabled list.
The Braves also have until Friday to determine whether they want to keep their bullpen or bench intact, as a Hanson activation means a player will go down. While a decision remains open, one might argue optioning Tyler Pastornicky for a couple weeks wouldn’t cause great harm, as Martin Prado is capable of filling in at shortstop in a pinch. That final roster spot might be more valuable in the bullpen than on the bench right now.
More Links
Braves.com recap for Monday’s loss.
AJC quotes following Monday’s loss. Chipper Jones on Eric Stults: “That guy was painting. He was throwing four-seamers and cutters and back-dooring it. He’s got a good change-up. We just couldn’t get anything going, and everything they hit fell in. It’s one of those nights that’s frustrating. We just for whatever reason are not swinging the bats real good right now.”
Andrelton Simmons hopes to begin baseball activities soon. He met with the Braves doctor Monday and has begun therapy on his injured hand, but the timetable remains early September.
Matt Diaz is headed for surgery on his ailing right thumb, effectively ending his season and possibly his Braves career.
J.P. Breen of FanGraphs looks at whether Aroldis Chapman and Craig Kimbrel should be considered candidates for the Cy Young Award.
Around the NL East
The Nationals destroyed the Giants 14-2 to take a 5.5 game lead over the Braves in the NL East. As noted in the recap, the Nationals have the best run differential in baseball at +108, better than the Yankees’ +103 and Cardinals’ +101. The Braves are tied for fourth with the Rangers at +76.
Despite the win, the Nationals got banged up a little. Jayson Werth was scratched with a sore right ankle, an injury he usually has during spring training and goes away after a day or two. Michael Morse left the game early with a swollen right thumb after getting jammed during batting practice, but he said he probably would have stayed in had the score not been so lopsided.
Adam Kilgore of The Washington Post explains the rotation situation with the Nationals. Their off day on Thursday sets them up to where they can start Gio Gonzalez, Stephen Strasburg and Ross Detwiler in the three-game series against the Braves, splitting up the left-handed pitchers that are currently pitching back-to-back days.
While that’s usually not a problem, Kilgore explains a good point: “He likes to have Craig Stammen, his right-handed long reliever, available behind Detwiler and Gonzalez, because if they falter early he can face a right-handed heavy lineup. When they pitch back-to-back, it makes it more difficult to have Stammen ready.”
Cole Hamels threw his second consecutive shutout, allowing seven hits, one walk and striking out five in a win over the Marlins.
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Yeah I just don’t follow the complaints about the six-man rotation. We’re in a stretch of 20 days without an off-day and, as already stated, we don’t really have a “best” starter at this point. We have 6 guys that are perfectly capable of filling out a nice 5-man rotation, why not use them?
I guess my question is, does the odd man out go to the bullpen? Can’t say that I would mind seeing Hanson coming in for the 6th and 7th in September…
Yes, Fredi said in his quotes that the odd man out goes to the bullpen. While I have a difficult time imagining Tommy Hanson as a reliever, this isn’t April, and the team has to do what it can to produce the best rotation for the final month.
I can’t imagine Hanson taking it too well, either, if he is the one to lose a spot.
I can’t imagine he would take it well either David, but you would think he would realize that if he is the worst of the 6 guys we have it’s a necessary move. He only has himself to blame if it ends up and he is the worst and is removed from his starting position. Medlen has been great so far, Minor is turning it around and the other 3 guys in our rotation currently have been solid so they’re not going anywhere. If Tommy want’s to stay a starter he needs to show that he’s better than Minor and Medlen, although the final spot might come down to him and MM. It’s a good problem to have with 6+ potential starting pitchers, I just hope we make the right decisions to secure a WC berth…got a few teams lurking not too far away. IMO the nats are out of reach.
I am glad we are in agreement that Tommy Hanson has been the worst pitcher of the group. Like I have said many times on Twitter, the guy is just frustrating too watch. Unless he does something drastic this off season I don’t think he will ever come back and pitch like he did in 09/10.
@Carlos
For whatever reason, Tommy has either lost, or never truly developed an out pitch. Aside from mechanics, his biggest problem is pitch count because he fails to finish off hitters once he gets to two strikes. I really like the guy, but I agree that he’ll have major issue with going to the bullpen and am hoping the FO is smart enough to trade him this offseason while his stock is still higher than average and not wait like they did with J.J.
I’m afraid that the Hanson expectations might skew the decision. I could see them just moving Medlen to the ‘pen, just because his role has been undefined. Hanson would probably throw an Oswalt-esque fit about being a starter and nothing else, which would of course explain what surely would be awful bullpen work. However, I think Medlen’s bullpen value paired with anyone else’s starter value, it’s probably the best move, even if Hanson isn’t pitching as well. I don’t think Minor or Hanson would be worth anything in relief, especially with Hanson’s fastball sitting 88. I would probably prefer Delgado in the pen over those two….
Yeah, it’s hard to catch a team that’s winning 70% of its games. They’ll cool off some before the end of the year, but they’ll still be winning enough that the Braves would have to win at a blistering rate to catch up.
Of course, the problem with the WC is if we make it through the playoff game, we probably end up facing the Nationals in the first round.
Before we declare the Nats out of reach, let’s just remember where the Braves were in the standings heading down the stretch last year and where they ended up.
FF last night: 0 for 4 and a total of 4 pitches seen
Yeah, but he lined out to center and just missed a homer with two of those swings.
Fun fact… Dempster has now made 3 starts. Pitched 17.1 innings and given up 16 ER. Mind you, one of those starts was 6.2 innings of shutout ball. So, essentially, 16 ER in 10.2 innings. Thank you for Mr. Maholm, Mr. Dempster. :)
Thank him for Reed Johnson, too. We don’t know for sure whether Johnson was in the Dempster deal, but I’m sure glad he was in the Maholm deal. He is a much-needed boost for the bench. Now if we can just get a LH bat to replace Hinske in the next 17 days, this roster will be playoff-ready.
They’ve been tossing around Johnny Damon to Atlanta rumors. Wouldn’t be my first choice, but a much more serviceable bat than Hinske’s this year. Plus a better defender in the OF than Hinske. It would be an upgrade, although I’m sure Julio Franco could produce better than Hinske this year.
I really don’t like the Johnny Damon idea, but I just don’t know what other bats are available, so he may be the best choice.
Yeah, I’m not huge on it either. But an upgrade is an upgrade.
How about Laynce Nix or David DeJesus? I wonder if they have passed through waivers.
How is Damon an upgrade? Because his OPS vs RHP is 17 points lower than Hinske’s?
Why not call up Ernesto Mejia. Backup 1st baseman and off the bench bat. He is right handed but his splits are switched.
Vs LHP .275/.336/.467/.803 w/5 HR
Vs RHP .314/.366/.562/.928 w/19 HR
Others can be the backup outfielders like Johnson. Damon and Hinske suck on defense anyway might as well have someone who can hit.
Of course Dempster has pitched against the Angels, Red Sox and the Yankees whereas Maholm has faced the Astros and the Mets since the trades. I am big fan, but still needs some context.
I figured Diaz’s thumb would keep him out at least until rosters expanded, although I wasn’t sure he’d have surgery. It was a good way for the Braves to keep Johnson on the roster while allowing Diaz to save face. It will be interesting to see if someone picks him up next season how much of an impact this injury has had on his production.
Is anyone worried about or at least concerned about Heyward’s strikeouts and/or lack of contact? His O-Swing% (percentage of pitches a hitter swings at outside the strike zone) has gone up each year while his overall Contact% has gone down each year. If it’s not something to be worried about right now, is it at least something to keep an eye on going forward?
It would be nice to win at least the first series against the Nats. Losing the big divisional matchups down near the wire over the past 6 years has really gotten old.
My problem with Hanson in the pen is that a speedy pinch hitter gets on and turns a walk or single into a triple due to stolen bases…. I don’t think a total inability to hold runners works well out of the pen