Game 125: Giants 5, Braves 2
August 24, 2012 at 1:17 am by David Lee under Atlanta Braves
Source: FanGraphs
Game MVP: Barry Zito, 66 game score
Least Valuable Giant: Jeremy Affeldt
Most Valuable Brave: Dan Uggla, .107
Least Valuable Brave: Tommy Hanson, 32 game score
Big plays:
2nd – (ATL) Dan Uggla out at home on Hanson fielder’s choice, -.112
3rd – (SF) Pablo Sandoval RBI single for 1-0 Giants lead, .144
A combination of inefficiency, bad defense and bad luck resulted in a poor outing for Tommy Hanson. He allowed five runs on seven hits in 4.1 innings, walking three and striking out four. Hanson didn’t have much command and left the ball over the plate on more than one occasion, but he was also dealt bad luck with a .412 BABIP and poor defense in a four-run fifth that knocked him out.
Aside from Hanson and the team defense, the rest of the game was just as ugly. Dan Uggla managed to get on base three times, so he was the WPA leader, but ran into two outs on stupid baserunning mistakes. The Braves turned Barry Zito into Cy Young until he ran out of gas in the ninth after 100 pitches. They scored two runs in the ninth and had the tying run at the plate more than once, but they fell flat.
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Soft tossing lefty. Move along, nothing to see here.
The Braves are equal opportunity offenders when it comes to turning opposing pitchers into Cy Young. It doesn’t matter whether you’re a hot pitcher like Chad Billlingsley, or struggling one like Barry Zito, the Braves will turn you into Cy Young (or, if you’re a lefty, into Steve Carlton).
Meanwhile, Tommy Hanson continues his transformation into Jair Jurrjems, Pt. 2. Sorry your run support luck ran out, Tommy.
The loss of Andrelton Simmons is crippling this offense. He was showing signs of being a decent right-handed hitter, something the Braves desperately need. With Uggla and McCann missing in action, the Braves can’t afford to have yet another automatic out in the lineup in the person of Janish. When you throw in the pitcher, that’s four automatic outs in the lineup. No wonder the Braves struggle to score. It’s mind-boggling that Freeman got an RBI double tonight with Uggla hitting behind him. If I had been pitching for the Giants, I wouldn’t have thrown Freeman a single strike all night.
problem is, with Freeman you don’t have to throw him strikes, he swings away at everything.
I am honestly concerned that barring some new found plate discipline, that Freeman will ever be more than a league avg first baseman. he’s avg on defense already (contrary to what many Braves fans think because they let SCOOPS get the better of their judgement) and Pitchers are going to punish him if he keeps swinging away like he does.
one other thing, notice how far fewer opposite field shots he’s had this year?
2.4 WAR as a 22 year old. His k% is down while his bb% is up. The metrics like his defense more this season. Everything for Freddie is moving in a positive direction. Soooo….what’s the problem?
I agree. Freeman seems to be progressing nicely given where he is in his career. I’m not sure what all of the negativity is about. You can’t expect a 22 year old to be the most polished player in the game.
small sample size for one, and that BB% was positively affected by two good BB% months. But this is also misleading as he swings at the first pitch more than anyone in baseball. The struggles of Mac and Uggla can’t be discounted either as why pitch to him when you can go after them instead?
and I don’t know where you are getting 2.4 WAR from as I’m looking at fangraphs and they have him as a 1.9. and 12th in MLB in wOBA.
I understand he’s young. I’m not expecting him to be Pujols at age 23. but I am concerned that if he continues to hack away ,pitchers are going to stop throwing him anything resembling a strike as it won’t matter.
Seriously, do you really see a future for Freeman as a top 10 first baseman? I suspect he will have years where he cracks the top ten, but IMO, he will probably always be between 12-15
Isn’t his whole career a small sample size?
I’m getting 2.4 as the ZiPS projected for 2012.
If you’re going to say 2012 vs 2011 is a small sample size that cannot be used to predict FF’s value and try to predict any trends in his production, then everything you just wrote is all speculation and guess work. If you’re going to throw 1 4/5 years worth of plate appearances, then I’m not going to put much value into your “hacking away” defense.
I just don’t understand the complaining about Freddie. I don’t think he’s our future #3 hitter like the morons who announce the games believe, nor do I believe he’s going to turn into Eric Hinske. What I do know beyond a doubt, is that he isn’t Scott Thorman, Casey Krotchman, or Troy Glaus. In fangraphs WAR, he sits at #10 for 1B at age 22 even after the nagging injuries and eye issues he has dealt with. His current 1.9 WAR (worth $8.7 million) has been a bargain at league minimum. He’s a solid player, and I don’t see why there should be any complaining.
I’ll quote Ben from his article earlier in the season: “…Freeman’s modest but solid improvements across the board have been a key for the offense this year. He seems to be on a standard plane of production and hopefully this continues throughout the season and on to next year. He probably will never be a superstar player, but he does have the potential to be a very good first baseman for a team that has struggled finding a consistent player at the position for decades.”
I was trying to give some perspective as some people seem to think he’s
A) a top notch defender and
B) has a greater future potential than Heyward
Freddie is way too aggressive at times. A lot of 1st pitch swings. The decision to leave Heyward out of the lineup was dumb even with a lefty out there. How are you going to sit our hottest hitter? If anything sit uggla another game and put prado at second, johnson in left. Bourn has to get going again. His average has dropped significantly. We have to cash in leadoff doubles when we get.them. I thought before this 10 game stretch that it would tell alot about this team and its not looking good. Our record against good teams stinks. They seem to pick the worst time to go into a slump.
1 for 12 with RISP??????????????????
Hanson just doesn’t seem to have the “stuff” he used to have that gave him the ability to miss locations and still get away with it. I didn’t see all of his outing, but from what I did see combined with what I read, it seems like same thing different day. Lets hope he (and the offense) can find some of the magic Kool-Aid the Cardinals found in September last year.
Barry FUCKING Zito.
While watching him pitch am I the only one that wants to get in there and take a few hacks against him? I’d no doubt strikeout horribly, but It wouldn’t be due to lack of confidence standing in the box against him.
Some NL East team should sign Jamie Moyer next year for the sole purpose of pitching against the Braves. Against all other teams he can be your long reliever.
Actually the Braves torched him this year in that game where he weirdly accused Chipper of relaying signs from second base.
Jamie Moyer also 2-hit the Braves with no walks in 2010.
I’ll put it this way… I never pick against my favorite team when betting/gambling. But yesterday on Draftstreet… Zito against our Braves was just too good to pass up. I hate that it did, but it worked out just as expected :(
Here’s to Sheets righting his ship tonight and Hudson shutting the Giants out Saturday.
Touche`. Smart betters put allegiances to the side.
Well played, sir.
Haha I was going to post the exact comment last night. BARRY ZITO! I wanted a shot at him.
This is the most frustrating braves team I’ve watched in a long time. When one person in the lineup goes cold, everybody goes cold. Its like theyre using hologram bats. I have no faith in anybody to pull their head out of their backside and start living up to their salary.
Tommy Hanson is so horrible I don’t possess the vocabulary needed to describe his abilities. Aside from allowing every single base runner to run rampant (I honestly believe that someone with a peg leg could steal on him), but he throws just as many balls in the dirt as he does to the target. Mccann was getting a workout having to block and slide to catch that garbage. If he is not the one demoted out of the rotation then they can count his start as a loss. Seriously if theyre looking for someone to throw balls in the dirt and let people steal I can do that for a hell of a lot cheaper than Hanson will.
Finally, I try to give Fredi the benefit of the doubt more times than not but last night after SF went up 3-0 and it was clear that Hanson had nothing left Fredi sat his happy ass in the dugout and let him tag on 2 more runs. I hate Hanson but honestly those runs should be charged to Fredi and his inability to recognize when his guys are done
This start was exactly what I have come to expect from Hanson. He struggles to get through the first 3 innings or so while constantly pitching in and out of trouble and sweating like a crackhead and then blows up for 3 or 4 runs in the 4th or 5th inning after pitching about 100 pitches in 4+ innings. I don’t really see why the Braves would continue the 6-man rotation experiment when Hanson is so much less reliable at this point than the other 5 guys.
May be that they do not want to hurt his trade value by demoting him to relief/ they hope he pitches well enough to get another team interested. He will be more expensive through arbitration next year and he doesn’t have a clear spot in the rotation (especially when Beachy returns).
What trade value does he have continuing to pitch ineffectively in the starting rotation? Any GM with a set of eyes can see that Hanson’s mechanics are really messed up and will ultimately lead to arm problems (and likely already have). Given the drop in his velocity, I doubt anyone is going to give up much for him in a trade. I know I certainly wouldn’t.
Package Hanson with one of our prospect pitchers (Delgado/Teheran/Gilmartin) and get a good outfield bat in the off-season. Hanson by himself would be lucky to net us a decent reliever.
Did anyone else notice Fredi actually used David Ross to pinch hit? He didn’t actually hit, as Fredi replaced him with Heyward because Bochy put in Romo, but at least he was willing to take the risk of using up his backup catcher. Hopefully this trend will continue.
I was at the game last night…although I really didn’t think he would do so, I was hoping Fredi would pinch hit Ross for McCann against Lopez, which would have depleted the Giants’ solid lefties. Then he could have used Hayward in the next at-bat if they brought in Romo to pitch to Ross. I was down near the Braves bullpen, lot of Braves fans there, we were [quite loudly] doing the Chop in the 9th and had our rally caps on :)
If Sheets pitches well tonight, Hanson’s out of the rotation.
So I am starting to think Hanson is going to be traded this offseason. Think about it. Medlen has pitched well enough to earn a rotation spot for the future(and I was one of the people saying he is better for the pen(but given how well the pen is going Medlen now adds more to the rotation)). Then there is Minor, Beachy, Maholm, Sheets, and Hudson. There is just no room for Hanson. While Sheets is no given for next year the other 4 almost are(Beachy had TJ surgery in June. It takes 9-12 months to heal, 9 months puts it right at April). They also have Teheran and Delgado. As people are pointing out he is following a similar path that Jurrjens took. Right now I would almost give Hanson away and given the concerns about everything Atlanta may have too which they may be reluctant to do.
Hanson’s going to have to have surgery to get straightened out.
Actually Sheets is a FA after this season. I’d like to give Delgado another shot though and actually thought we should’ve traded Hanson this year.
Well yeah. That is why I said Sheets is not a given for next year’s rotation. However the other 4 seem likely to be. Hudson is the next question after Hanson. I like Tim but he has not been that consistent either. If they opt not to keep Hudson and Hanson I could see a rotation of Beachy, Maholm, Medlen, Minor, Delgado.
I wasn’t aware I was in a community of sports medicine experts. How does everyone know that “surgery” will make Tommy Hanson better? Anyone want to elaborate, or maybe the Braves should call up Dr Andrews now and say “yeah we to set up a surgery in his pitching area. Just scrape around in there until you repair the 95 mph muscle.”
‘like’
Every athlete hurts. Surgery is when they cannot perform or deal with the pain. Not sure Hanson’s lack of performance would be due to arm issues. I think it has more to do with not having command especially considering he changed his arm movement which resulted in loss of ‘stuff’. He is not overpowering like he used to be, so he better improve his command if he is going to stay at this level.
Hanson suffered a shoulder injury last offseason, and chose to change his pitching motion and pitch at reduced speed to avoid surgery. His velocity is down, he has no control. Am I a doctor? No, but you can’t sit there and say his shoulder is 100% and isn’t a factor in him struggling> T.
Thanks, vivabeta, I have been annoyed by this as well. I certainly don’t think that it’s out of the question for Hanson to have shoulder surgery this off-season, but we should keep two things in mind. First, Hanson has consistently said in post-game interviews that the shoulder is not bothering him. I know that players routinely downplay injuries – Beachy’s pre-surgery comments about the elbow come to mind – but we shouldn’t just dismiss those comments. Second, shoulder surgeries are really serious medical procedures – serious shoulder injuries offer a considerably worse prognosis than TJ injuries. I think that we can assume that Hanson and Boras want to avoid surgery unless there are no other options. Even if Hanson has surgery, I think there is a very real possibility that (a) he will miss the entire 2013 season; (b) the uncertainty will lead the team to non-tender him; and (c) his velocity won’t (fully) come back even after the surgery. The bottom line is that surgery is not a magical fix for the problem – it’s a worst-case scenario.
Losing one season of your career sucks, but it’s better than losing your whole career. I like Hanson and I want to see him do well. It’s just that in my opinion, not choosing the surgery was a mistake. Just like it’s my opinion that the shoulder has something to do with it.
Perhaps for Tommy Hanson, but I’m not sure if it is much better from the Braves standpoint. If shoulder surgery caused Hanson to miss the entire 2013 season, I think that there is a very good chance that he would be non-tendered, though I will admit that I don’t really know how an arbitration panel would deal with the matter. Look at guys who have had shoulder surgery in the past – many of them (think Mark Prior and Brandon Webb) never make it back and most other (think Jake Peavy and Erik Bedard) take multiple years to become truly effective again. The Braves have Hanson under control for three more years – if they are assured to get zero production in the first year and unlikely to get above league average production in the second year, why bother subsidizing the rehabilitation?
By the way, I don’t necessarily disagree with you that the shoulder is responsible for the velocity drop. I just want to challenge the easy assumption that the obvious solution, for both Hanson and the Braves, is surgery. As Franklin has pointed out numerous times in other contexts, the team has more information on Hanson’s health than anyone else, and if they thought that surgery would have fixed the problem last year, there is little reason to think that they wouldn’t have endorsed it. We can likewise assume that Boras is going to advise Hanson to do whatever is most likely to increase his future value – shoulder surgery is certainly not likely to do so.
Those same people could say, “I wasn’t aware we were in a community of pitching mechanics experts saying that surgery WON’T make Tommy Hanson better.”
This is a place to air your opinions rather than criticizing someone for theirs.
It’s a place for both, so long as you aren’t a jerk about the criticism. I don’t think vivabeta was.
I have never suggested surgery. I do not understand that thought either. Tommy has a very unconventional throwing motion. If he were to throw differently he would probably be better off and hold his velocity consistently. I think his throwing motion just takes too much of a toll on his shoulder.
I wasn’t being a jerk. I was commenting on MANY MANY comments (and for better or worse I read almost all of them) that say “Tommy needs surgery now,” “he won’t be better until surgery,” “i predict he’ll have surgery this off season.” I just have a bit of a problem with making blanket statements like that. He has been pretty shitty since the break, but maybe Tommy just isn’t conditioned well enough to go a full season. He hasn’t been lights out and hasn’t fully developed his out pitch, struggles with 2 strike counts, has problems getting deep into games, and has had some injury problems. But it’s not like he has been shelled all year. He was pretty good during the first half and his k/9 and bb/9 aren’t amazing but they’re not terrible. I’m not going into every facet of his game. I just disagree with the idea that his problem DEFINITELY is medical.
Yeah I agree and I didnt mean to make you come off like a jerk. That being said though I think surgery could help him. While its is not the best option I think because he is clearly wearing down so quickly, a ligament replacement could actually give him some of that strength back. Definitely not the best option cause there is always the danger that complications could arise.
When it comes to elbow surgery its ” get it now ,get it over so you can come back,:
When it comes to shoulder surgery its ” rehab, change your motion, move to the bullpen, do what you can do to avoid surgery or you may never come back”
shoulder surgery ain’t like Tommy John , it tends ti end people’s career at the pitcher’s spot.
I’m no expert, and I didn’t take offense to what anyone said. As I said, I like Hanson and want him to succeed. Do I want him to have shoulder surgery? No, but something needs to change with him. Whether it’s his shoulder, his throwing motion, or even his conditioning, he’s not cutting it right now.
Hanson’s command problems are worse that most others because a walk leads to a runner on second. It seems that noone can teach him the slide step or improve his delivery to avoid the stolen base. Mayby Boros can convince another team that he is a top pitcher but for now, he isn’t even a good number 6 in the Braves rotation.
I think Tommy’s delivery has more effects than his inability to hold runner on too. I think because he seems to rely more on his arm it causes more fatigue on his shoulder.
Tommy also might be the sweatiest pitcher I’ve ever seen. It looks like he’s in 120 degree weather in every start and laboring like he’s about to pass out.
I wonder if someone is going to tell the Dodgers that this isnt a video game and there is consequenses to acquiring bad contracts
Crawford and Beckett are bad contracts but Gonzalez is not. Even so, them adding Gonzalez makes that team scary too. Beckett does at least give them someone experienced for the playoffs too and who knows maybe a change of scenery could help him.
Gonzalez is the best contract out of the bunch but its still a bad contract. All 14AL teams did not put a waiver claim on him and the 10 NL teams with worse records then the Dodgers did not claim him. He is due $21MM per season through 2016 and obtain a raise to $21.5MM for 2017-18. The total exceeds $130MM when accounting for the remainder his 2012 salary. He is 30 years old this year and only worth 2.7WAR which means we is barely worth his salary this year. Doubt that will improve when he is 5-6 years older.
The Dodgers may be hoping that getting him out of the contentious Red Sox locker room will help him succeed. (look at Hanley)
Well also look at the teams in the AL. Yankees: have Tex plus want to get their payroll under the Luxury tax, Rays: need a 1B but have no money, O’s: iffy maybe could use him but Davis has been huge for them, Tigers: Fielder, White Sox: Dunn, Angels: Morales, Pujols, and Trumbo, Rangers: Moreland isnt bad plus the have Olt, A’s: Could have also used him but like the Rays do not have much money. The Dodgers are like the only contender that could use a 1B and have money to spare for him.
Why is Prado at short? Is Janish hurt or banged up? An even bigger question: Hinske in left? I would start Reed Johnson over Hinske. Hell, I would start Constanza over Hinske. I’m assuming Hinske has a good avg vs Vogelsong, as Fredi loves the small sample size. I need my CAC daily news feed.
I think it was to get a LMB vs RHP matchup.