Heyward’s MVP Chances
August 26, 2012 at 1:11 pm by Ben Duronio under Atlanta Braves
With just over a month left in the season, here are the top 5 in the NL in Fangraphs WAR:
Andrew McCutchen: 6.2
David Wright: 6.2
Ryan Braun: 6.2
Michael Bourn: 6.0
Jason Heyward: 5.8
Now, most voters won’t be weighting Fangraphs WAR to chose their MVP for each league, but they will include each team’s playoff chances. That effectively eliminates Ryan Braun and David Wright from the competition, even though I vehemently disagree with that type of decision making. Additionally, almost all of the voters will be looking predominantly at offensive performance above all else.
Here are the players in contention for the playoffs with a higher wRC+ than Heyward (that haven’t been suspended for PEDs).
Andrew McCutchen: 162
Buster Posey: 154
Yadier Molina: 148
Matt Holliday: 145
Jason Heyward: 133
There is virtually no chance Matt Holliday wins the award, because for some reason people fail to even consider him a top player in the league even though he is nearly every season. McCutchen, Posey, Molina, and also Carlos Beltran (131 wRC+ but will have 100 RBI and 30 HR which voters will care about) are the main competition.
If the Pirates fall out of the race, the award will certainly be attainable for Heyward. Does that mean much for the team? No, but would be beyond awesome to see Heyward win the MVP after such a tough season last year and the fact that so many soured on him.
He would need to have a big last month of the season, needing to probably reach the 30 home run mark and at least have 100 runs scored, which is certainly not easy considering he has just 75 on the year. Voters are becoming a bit more progressive, so maybe they will consider his defense and base running more than expected. If he ends up going 30-20 and the Braves make the playoffs, in combination with the Pirates struggling and Posey having an off month, the MVP seems likely.
Even if Heyward does not end up winning the MVP, he will finish in the top-5 in voting barring an injury or awful month. Those can certainly occur, but this bounce back season from Heyward has been a site to see.
Also, if you have ESPN Insider, Bill Petti wrote a nice piece about Heyward’s power and how he has transformed his profile at the plate.
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I think the only way it happens would be if Heyward has a 99 Chipper type September and the Braves beat out the Nats to win the division. And like you said, he’s got to raise some of his counting stats. Considering the Braves weak competition in September it’s certainly possible. Also, with the amount of time they’ll be on national tv this year, it would certainly help his narrative.
I agree. Chances are slim, but if he keeps up his recent power surge and ends the year with 30+ homers, raises his average to .290 or so, and continues his excellence on the basepaths and in the outfield, he certainly has a viable case. Of course, the Braves will also have to take care of business and give the Nats a run for the division. Suffice to say, it should be an interesting September though as a Braves fan I’m filled with equal parts excitement and dread.
+1…on excitement and dread. Scared out of my mind and probably will need to see a cardiologist before the season is over…
With the Verlander vote last year, it’s apparent that making the playoffs is a big deal for individual awards. It’s more likely that the Braves make it than the Pirates, so it’s very reasonable that Heyward wins it over McCutchen.
Well Verlander winning as well as Kemp. Kemp had an 8.7 WAR to Braun’s 7.8. But I think the vote for Verlander is more indicative that some sabermetrics are also being taken into account.
I think mccutchen has to be the favorite. if the pirates finish in contention it’ll be treated like a playoff berth since theyve been so bad for the past 20 yrs. either way its great to see j hey part of the conversation, and i dont think its for the last time.
I agree that McCutchen is still the favorite. I also think Posey is ahead of Heyward because of the injury last season and he plays a tougher position. Heyward would need to have a ridiculous month to win it. His OPS right now is around .850 which seems a bit low. If he could get that closer to .950 with 30 HR’s and 90+ RBI’s maybe he has an outside chance. 25 SB’s seem reasonable though.
Regardless of him winning–though he will most certainly finish in the top 10–I think the Braves should throw a party for those who stuck by Jason and never wrote him off as a one hit wonder. Never turned on him and talked trash about him being “lazy” or “spoiled,” and were extremely apprehensive about calling him the next Henry Aaron and the savior of blacks in baseball. Maybe it’s because the expectations were so high that 2011 brought him down so low in some people’s eyes, but I don’t recall hearing the same criticisms about Adam Jones or even Franceour throughout his first of many disappointing seasons. Jason is a physical specimen who happens to be a good, brilliant guy that is finally cracking the surface of his potential, and it’s gonna be fun as hell to watch.
Fredi Gonzalez, you are not invited.
I was thinking about this last night, actually. My conclusion was that you really need to buy what UZR and UBR are selling to consider him a legitimate candidate. As to UZR, at least, I’m not sure I do. I would want to regress him about 50% or something toward league average in terms of defense, which would leave him on a trajectory for maybe 5.5 fWAR rather than the 7 fWAR threshold he now has a good chance to reach. Even in that case, I think it would be completely justified to throw him some 4th place and lower votes.
Aside from all the MVP stuff, it’s been so great to watch Jason break out and start showing up all the assholes who derided him as lazy or overrated. He does have the talent to be a top player in the league, and I’m thrilled to see him getting closer to that potential. On a related note, I cannot figure out how to make Fangraphs’ custom leaderboards work at all–it keeps returning blank tables. Does anyone know how Jason’s season stacks up against other great age 22 seasons historically?
Posey is apparently Baseball Tonight’s choice. Have only mentioned five times or so in the first 15 minutes of the show.
Jason didn’t hurt his MVP chances tonight.
Honestly, taking the award away from the likes of McCuthchen, Braun, Beltran and giving it to Heyward would be unjust unless Heyward has an absolute monster September and the other players falter, regardless of playoff chances.
The MVP award is supposed to be dedicated to the player that has the most tremendous impact on his team. Not just good stats. Has Beheaded been huge for the Braves? Certainly. But I would guess they wouldn’t be a bad team without him. McCuthchen on the other hand, the Pirates would be nowhere near the playoffs without him. He deserves it the most IMHO.
Heyward should be a lock for Comeback Player of the Year though. Hell get his MVPs.
I don’t think he’s at all a lock for Comeback Player, because he just wasn’t that bad last year.
Stupid autocorrect. Beheaded is supposed to be Heyward.. not sure where the hell that came from
While I support the idea that Heyward should be a contender and also stated that realistically he won’t win, I doubt he even ends up top 3. People simply will not weight the defensive contributions as much as for their voting.
McCutchen and Posey have their MVP hopes directly tied to their team’s performance and the pirates have been slipping recently. With the comical trade for Adrian Gonzalez, the Dodgers might be able to pass the Giants.
Unless Yadier does something amazing and the Pirates and Giants both fall out, I don’t really see him winning. Posey has some mythological aura that writers seem to love. He seems to get credit for Giants pitchers being good, despite them already being good and Lincecum being hit around.
I think Posey ends up winning if the Giants make the playoffs. If the PIrates go and Giants don’t, then McCutchen has a chance. Best Chance I can see for Heyward, or Bourn getting top 3 votes is if the Giants and Pirates both don’t make it. I think they will fall into the Holliday category of players who did very well, but voters just don’t think they are good enough.
This is along the lines of what I was thinking, except I don’t think he’ll even make the top 5. Maybe I’m crazy, but I don’t think anyone cares about WAR, defense, or winning (for the most part). J-Hey’s not gonna get to .300, 30 homers, or 100 RBI, and that’s all you need to know. McCutchen’s got it in the bag.
I agree with your overall thrust, but he’s got 24 HR with 34 games left to play. I’d say he has a solid 40% chance of making 30 HR.
Autocorrect always gets me too. I thought for a second that Beheaded was Jason’s secret new hardcore-fan nickname.
me too lol
He will get over 30 home runs easy. He has an outside shot at 30-30 if he starts running more. And to the person who said the braves would still be a good team without Heyward? I would have to disagree. He has been carrying them and was the only person hitting during the nationals series.