Chipper Jones by WPA: 10 Most Valuable Games
September 4, 2012 at 1:35 pm by David Lee under Atlanta Braves, Chipper Jones
Much was written on the heroics of Chipper Jones blasting that two-out, three-run homer off Jonathan Papelbon to beat the Phillies on Sunday. However, unless you dig deeper into the numbers, it’s tough to judge how that play compares to his previous heroics. I have done just that.
Based on the game logs I sifted through, it appears Chipper’s home run Sunday was the most valuable play of his career, thus making it the most valuable game of his career. The list I compiled below is the evidence.
As a note: The stat that this post is centered around is Win Probability Added (WPA). Considering I use it every day to recap game threads, I assume most of CAC’s readers have a general grasp of the stat. For those who don’t, FanGraphs has a great glossary for such things, and I recommend giving it a quick read to understand the list in more detail.
Without further ado, the 10 most valuable games of Chipper Jones’ career, according to WPA:
1. Sept. 2, 2012 (WPA: .875). 8-7 win vs. Phillies
Key play: Three-run homer with two outs in the ninth, down two runs, to win 8-7 (wWPA: 86%).
2. Sept. 11, 2005 (WPA: .841). 9-7 win vs. Nationals
Key play: Two-run homer with two outs in the ninth, down one run, to go ahead 8-7 (wWPA: 74%).
3. July 1, 1998 (WPA: .813). 6-5 win vs. Devil Rays
Key play: Two-run homer with two outs in the ninth, down one run, to go ahead 6-5 (wWPA: 70%).
4. Aug. 9, 1998 (WPA: .750). 7-5 win vs. Giants
Key play: Two-run single with two outs in the ninth, tied at 5, to go ahead 7-5 (wWPA: 41%).
5. June 7, 2009 (WPA: .685). 8-7 win vs. Brewers
Key play: Three-run homer with two outs in the fifth, down one run, to go ahead 5-3 (wWPA: 39%).
6. Sept. 14, 2007 (WPA: .594). 8-5 win vs. Nationals
Key play: RBI double with one out in the ninth, down one run, to tie at 5 (wWPA: 39%).
7. May 17, 2006 (WPA: .591). 6-4 win vs. Marlins
Key play: Three-run homer with no outs in the 11th, down one run, to win 6-4 (wWPA: 47%).
8. April 6, 2005 (WPA: .567). 2-1 win vs. Marlins
Key play: Solo home run with no outs in the 13th, tied at 1, to go ahead 2-1 (wWPA: 34%).
9. Sept. 22, 2004 (WPA: .546). 11-8 loss vs. Reds
Key play: Three-run homer with two outs in the seventh, down one run, to go ahead 8-6 (wWPA: -51%).
10. Aug. 22, 2005 (WPA: .543). 4-2 win vs. Cubs
Key play: Two-run homer with one out in the ninth, tied at 2, to go ahead 4-2 (wWPA: 41%).
Notes: wWPA is the winning team’s win probability added. Therefore, the minus on No. 9 shows how much it affected the Reds’ chances of winning. That loss was the result of a John Smoltz blown save.
Two of the three key plays against the Nationals were off Chad Cordero.
The key play against the Cubs was off Kerry Wood.
The one game on this list that was more of a compilation than final at-bat magic was No. 5. Chipper went 4-4 with a walk, triple, two homers and five RBIs.
Among the top 20 WPA games in his career, he never had more than three in one season. He had three each in 1998, 2005 and 2010.
Counting back the top 20 WPA games in Chipper’s career, 10 of the games were before he turned 30 years old, making it an even split. However, as you can tell from the list, only two of the top 10 were before his age 30 season.
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unbelievable talent. i just wish we had the biomedical technology to rejuvenate his knees
Funny that none of the top 10 games occured in his MVP season of 1999. He seemed to carry that team for the last month and a half, and hit the memorable 4 HR’s in a 3 game sweep of the Mets that salted the division away in late September. No late game-winners I guess, but definitely just as clutch a performance!
I was there Sunday night when he hit that walkoff! There was almost a feeling amonst the fans before he hit it that something great was about to happen. It was truly a moment I will never forget!!
Damnit I’m gonna miss this guy…………….. :(
Chippa. Is. The Man.
One thing I don’t understand. Why wouldn’t a walk-off home run be a 100% WPA, especially with two outs, since it wins the game. I’m probably missing something.
Not that it makes any sense to me either, but maybe it’s something to do with the LI? Maybe there has to be a max leverage situation for there to be a max WPA?
Because the likelihood of winning the game before the play was not zero. WPA = likelihood of winning after the play – likelihood of winning before it. So with a walk-off, we know the first part of that equation is 100%, but the second part will never be 0% (in the case of Sunday’s game, given the situation, the Braves had about a 14% shot of winning that game when Chipper stepped to the plate).
the probability of winning is small, but not 0, before the home run. The example from #1: runners on 2nd and 3rd, 2 out, down 2 in the ninth you have a 14% chance of winning (because even a single gets it to 50%). The walkoff increased the win percentage by 86 points to 100%.
Ahhh that makes sense! I was somewhat right :)
Im pretty sure the only higher WPA play possible is down 3 with bases loaded and 2 outs.
Thanks, that makes sense.
Another good article about Chipper, but this one has to do with his Twitta!
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8335741/future-hall-famer-chipper-jones-shares-final-season-10000-twitter-followers-espn-magazine
where does his extra innings walk-off against the Phillies earlier this season rank?
I was wondering the same thing!
It was a .306 – here’s the FanGraphs play log for that game.
Man that was a crazy, awesome game.