2012 Draft Update
September 15, 2012 at 1:02 pm by Ethan Purser under Atlanta Braves, Draft, Prospects
With the end of the 2012 minor league season officially upon us, let’s take a look at how the Braves’ 2012 draftees fared in their first taste of professional baseball in a John Sickels-style draft update. This post will be focused on the picks from the first two days of the draft, encompassing rounds 1 through 15. Please keep in mind that the numbers presented here are from an extremely small sample.
1. Lucas Sims, RHP: 3.71 ERA with 39/13 K/BB in 34 innings pitched between the GCL and the Appalachian League. Mixed in some good and bad starts while at Danville, compiling a 4.33 ERA with 29/12 K/BB in 27 innings pitched. The prep pitcher from Snellville, GA, showed legitimate swing-and-miss stuff as a young 18-year-old who spent a majority of his time facing much older competition in the Appalachian League. This kid is going to be fun to watch. Sims was ranked 5th on our midseason prospect list.
2. Alex Wood, LHP: Went straight to Rome from UGA and impressed. 2.22 ERA with 52/14 K/BB in 52.2 innings pitched. Kept the ball on the ground, compiling a 2.09 GO/AO. David and I have talked about this kid at length; needless to say, we really like him. Hard-throwing college lefties with two legitimate secondaries at their disposal are fun. Depending on instructs/spring training, the Braves may be tempted to skip him a level and send him to Mississippi to start next season a la Mike Minor, Sean Gilmartin, etc. Wood was ranked 10th on our midseason prospect list.
3. Bryan De La Rosa, C: .162/.194/.221 with 2/30 BB/K in 73 plate appearances in the GCL. Threw out 30 percent of runners, but passed ball and error rates look atrocious. Not an impressive debut for the undersized Florida high school product, but he’ll take plenty of time to develop and will need patience. It may take a while, but this kid is going to hit. He was ranked 25th on our midseason prospect list.
4. Justin Black, OF: .182/.292/.258 with a couple of home runs and a 19/54 BB/K in 157 plate appearances in his debut in the GCL. Showed a good eye at the plate but also showed a propensity to swing and miss quite frequently. Stole 3 bags in 7 attempts. This Montana prepster is very unrefined in every aspect of his game, but has serious five-tool potential and will require extreme patience. He’s a bit older than your normal first-year player out of high school. Black was ranked 24th on our midseason prospect list.
5. Blake Brown, OF: .201/.313/.313 with four home runs and 25/72 BB/K in 210 plate appearances for Danville. He’s played both center field and right field but profiles better at the latter position as he moves up. Stole 10 bags in 14 attempts. This super-toolsy college draftee—somewhat of a rare breed this day and age—has some of the most serious physical tools in the system, but will he ever hit enough to showcase his massive raw power? This guy is my favorite of the lot, for some reason. Previously drafted by the Pirates in 2009.
6. Josh Elander, C: .260/.366/.439 with four homers and a stellar 16/19 BB/K in 145 plate appearances at Danville. Polish at the plate wasn’t the problem coming into the draft; defense was the biggest knock on him, considering his limited appearances at catcher as an amateur. Threw out 29 percent of opposing base stealers and committed four errors and allowed four passed balls in 181 chances. Raw power translated into some power production this season at TCU and at Danville. This college draftee showed some nice tools/skills at the plate, but questions linger about his ultimate defensive home. Elander was the starting catcher for USA Baseball’s college national team in 2011. Previously drafted by the Nationals in 2009.
7. David Starn, LHP: 5.50 ERA with 28/20 K/BB in 34.1 innings pitched in Rome; senior sign out of Kent State. Missed a couple of starts after signing due to shoulder fatigue. Labeled as a command/control guy out of college, Starn did not live up to this reputation in his debut, although the aforementioned injury may have affected his performance. Fastball ranged from 84-87 when I saw him, so he will need to cut down on the walks in order to survive as he climbs the ladder.
8. David Peterson, RHP: 1.93 ERA with 23/11 K/BB in 28 innings pitched in Rome; senior sign from College of Charleston. Kept the ball on the ground in his debut, posting a 2.88 GO/AO. Big kid—6’5”, 205 pounds, and looks every bit of it. Moved to the bullpen in his senior season and continued to pitch well in this role upon joining the Braves. Looked good in person—sat low-90s, touched 95 with a nice downhill plane and flashed a solid-average breaking ball, although control of both pitches was inconsistent. The college righty had a solid debut and is a back-end-of-the-bullpen sleeper. Previously drafted by the Reds in 2008 and the Astros in 2011.
9. Steven Schils, RHP: If you’re looking for that guy who came in and totally sucked in pro ball . . . look no further! In three appearances for Danville, Schils amassed one inning pitched, allowing seven earned runs (!) on one hit and nine walks. NINE WALKS. Schils did not pitch after July 19th and according to his twitter, he underwent some type of surgery in mid-August (unless he’s speaking of the extreme citrus soda manufactured by the Coca-Cola Company from 1997 to 2003, in which case he needs to know that the drink has been discontinued for nearly ten years and can’t be genuinely defined as a “success”). Needless to say, pro ball hasn’t welcomed Schils with open arms. A quick scan of his college statistics at High Point University and Florida Tech yields more troubling results: 34.1 innings pitched, 20/32 K/BB, and 51 hits allowed in three seasons. The Braves did their homework on this kid, going so far as to invite him to a pre-draft workout. Scouting is obviously more than looking at a player’s amateur numbers, and they must believe there’s something in his arm. Whatever that is, it hasn’t shown up in any results as of yet.
10. Mike Dodig, 3B: .174/.224/.273 with 8/37 BB/K in 143 plate appearances in the GCL. Became the highest drafted player out of Columbia-Greene Community College in Hudson, New York, and became the first player to be drafted from Columbia-Greene since 1997. Big kid—listed at 6’4”, 210 lbs. Showed some power, as eight of his 23 hits went for extra bases. Played exclusively at third base, committing 14 errors in 86 chances. Fairly young—he was drafted as a freshman—so patience is needed.
11. Levi Borders, C: Did not sign. Levi, son of Pat, will be taking his talents to . . . err . . . South Florida.
12. Connor Lien, OF: .228/.352/.282 with 19/49 BB/K in 180 plate appearances in the GCL. Spent time at all three OF spots this season, but probably profiles best in RF long-term. Showed polish at the plate and on the basepaths, collecting 19 walks and 15 stolen bases in 18 attempts. This 18-year-old received third-round money out of Olympia High School in Windermere, Florida. Big kid—6’3”, 205 lbs.—with big tools. Can run presently and has a cannon for an arm. One can easily project him to develop power down the road due to his large frame and present bat speed. Tough profile, as he will more than likely evolve into a right/right corner guy. Regardless, Lien has a high ceiling and bears close attention in the coming seasons.
13. Nathan Hyatt, RHP: 1.46 ERA with 37/8 K/BB in 24.2 innings pitched between Danville and Rome. The six-foot, 185-pound college draftee was the closer at Appalachian State this past season and was used primarily in this role during his pro debut with great results. Showed great control in his debut, walking only eight batters in 24.2 innings. These results are interesting, as he walked 24 batters in 27.1 innings this season at Appalachian State before being drafted. Hyatt can throw hard and has developing secondaries. Say it with me . . . yet another bullpen option!
14. Tyler Tewell, C: .308/.319/.495 with three home runs and 3/16 BB/K in 113 plate appearances between the GCL and Danville. Not a huge physical specimen—5’11”, 185 lbs. Caught and played outfield at Appalachian State, but was primarily stationed at catcher upon turning pro. Threw out 38 percent of runners with decent passed ball/error rates. Two carrying tools seem to be his raw arm strength and raw power from the left side. Played in the Southern Collegiate Baseball League in the summer of 2011, hitting very well and garnering a fair amount of attention from scouts. This college bat didn’t show a ton of patience at the plate in his debut, but showed he can hit and play behind the plate. One to watch in full-season ball in 2013.
15. Alex Wilson, RHP: 2.73 ERA with 28/5 K/BB in 26.1 innings pitched for Danville. Used exclusively in relief and even closed a few games. Signed as a junior out of Wofford College where he blossomed after two atrocious seasons in 2010 and 2011. After the draft, Wilson said that he received below-slot offers from the Rays and Phillies a few rounds before the Braves nabbed him. Wilson’s a 6’5”, 220-pound beast of a man with a 60-grade full name (Alexander Tate Wilson). This grade has nothing to do with my strange fascination with Tate Donovan and/or Donavan Tate. Good debut, another potential bullpen option.
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Wow, some how it slipped by me that the Braves drafted Schils. I remember watching him pitch at my college, High Point University, when I was a freshman. Don’t remember much of him specifically, but man that is a rough first pro inning.
Indeed it is.
wow where is the talent that the braves are known for.
Plenty of talent there. Wood, Sims, Peterson, Elander, Hyatt, Wilson all looking legit out of the top 15. You don’t get Heyward and Freeman every year with your top two picks.
Excellent post. I’ve been missing these in Peter’s absence.
Thanks for the kind words, Michael. Look for rounds 16-40 at some point next week.
Alright guys I need some help. I’ve been trying to explain to someone (who is a current college baseball player, go figure) about the hot hand fallacy and how small sample sizes are meaningless. He understands that players regress towards the mean over time, be he thinks he can predict WHEN they will regress. Example…when Pujols is 0 for 30, then has a multi-HR game, he thinks that game makes Pujols more likely to hit a HR in his next game than do poorly (such as go 0-4). Or, if a pitcher has thrown 27 innings and only given up 1 run, he thinks that pitcher is “hot” and believes that said pitcher is more likely to pitch well again in his next outing, rather than give up a 5 spot in an inning or something along those lines. I know there is extensive research debunking the hot hand in basketball, but is there anything that has specifically looked at the lack of predictive value these things have in baseball? Does anyone know of any articles I can point him to? I hate the fact that I know I’m right, and have done my best to explain it to him, but he is being hard-headed and won’t listen to me. He thinks it’s a difference in opinion, but I want to show him that it’s not an opinion, it’s a belief supported by hard evidence when looking at the numbers in an unbiased fashion, where his is a belief supported by absolutely nothing but biased perception. He is actually a decently intelligent guy, so I assume if I can give him some material to read on the matter it actually may do some good. Thanks in advance for your help.
Doesn’t this have a ton to do with independent probability?
In an overly simplified example, flipping 10 coins “heads” in a row in now way alters how likely the 11th coin is to land “heads” up. So say a batter is a lifetime .300 baa guy hitting in ten consecutive at-bats doesn’t change his chance to get a hit at his next at bat is still 3/10.
This is it exactly. If he can’t understand coin flips, then decently intelligent may be a little overstated.
Well, yes…but since baseball is not completely random and there is input from the people involved, he vastly overestimates the amount of control an individual has on the outcome. He thinks that a player “gets hot” in a way that enables them to be more likely to succeed. As if they magically become a better hitter or pitcher for a week, lol…
Sometimes, a hitter or pitcher can fix a mechanical flaw that has them in a slump. When that fix is applied in the games, that player will likely have improved results.
For instance, a RHP who is ‘flying open’ usually experiences control problems, often leaving the ball up and in (to a RH hitter). This not only affect their ability to throw strikes, but also affects their command within the strike zone. Fixing this flaw would lead to better command, control, and possibly velocity and/or movement. This would obviously impact the results of their pitching, as well.
The same holds true for a hitter who has a mechanical flaw. You can’t say that a RH hitter whose first movement is their butt pulling out toward 3B has the same likelihood of making quality contact on an outside pitch as the same RH hitter who has fixed that mechanical flaw in their swing.
Schils might have been a good lottery ticket … 10 rounds later. The Braves seemed to pull the trigger a few rounds too early on some of the toolsy types but time will tell.
Just a hunch on my part, but the new draft rules probably had something to do with Schils being drafted in the 9th round. They obviously saw something in the arm and wanted to select him, but they also knew what he was willing to take, which was below the slotted amount for that particular pick in the 9th. By selecting him where they did, they were able to grab someone they probably would’ve taken anyways and were also able save some money when they needed it the most. The new rules created all sorts of perverse incentives—not unlike this scenario—for all 30 teams, which is why we saw all of the seniors grabbed in rounds 7-10. Again, just a hunch.
Not real impressed with Tony DeMacio as a talent evaluator.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Tony_DeMacio