The Wildcard Game Will Be On Fredi Gonzalez’s Shoulders
September 18, 2012 at 11:58 am by Ben Duronio under Atlanta Braves
Before reading this, make sure to read these two posts. One is by Craig Calcaterra and the other is by Dave Cameron.
Now that you’ve done that, let’s talk about what this means. The Braves will have to set their 25-man roster for the one game, which means carrying starting pitchers who wouldn’t enter the game anyway is unnecessary. The same is true for whomever they are playing.
As Dave pointed out, there are a lot of different strategies that could be employed. I like the one he mentions for the Braves the best, but I doubt that happens. Even if it doesn’t, I highly doubt the game will be managed like a normal game. The chances that one of the two teams, the Braves or their opposition, use a significantly different method to managing the game than a normal regular season game or playoff game seems really, really high.
This is putting a ton of pressure on Gonzalez and the Braves front office to develop a plan of attack, so to speak, for this game. I will be looking at different options over the next few weeks for how I would attack the game and how I think the Braves will attack the game, which will most likely be two different strategies. For now, it’s just interesting to note how important Fredi will be for that single game.
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Fredo, the hero Atlanta deserves, but not the one it needs right now.
What did Atlanta do to “deserve” Frediot?
Atlantans everywhere tipped their cap until he came to the rescue
Gentlemen, it’s time to win one for the Tipper.
I will be very impressed with Fredi/Braves FO if they manage to construct a strategy anywhere close to what Dave is suggesting.
So one of the ways would certainly be to have your starter go about 75-80 pitches, then go off matchups the rest of the way. Possibly use Hudson/Minor for L/R matchups rather than say, Martinez/Avilan. It’ll be interesting. I fully expect for Fredi to make the wrong decisions, and will prepare for such disappointment.
I was kind of thinking about that after the game on ESPN Sunday. They mentioned the rule and how it might work out. I was kind of curious if the Braves would use the rules much in the way Dave mentions, although I would still do it in reverse. Maybe go ahead and start Medlen, but only allow him to go 3 innings. Then, start playing a match up battle… something along the lines of having Minor on the roster if there’s going to be a string of 2-4 lefties in an inning. Use him there, then use the rest of the specialized relievers.
One thing is for sure… the wild-card games are going to last ever bit of 3.5-4 hours. :/
Don’t disagree in theory, but if you go starter first (as opposed to the Kimbrel first FanGraphs approach) them game fog may set in and make it hard(er) to execute the plan. I am trying to imagine Medlen pitching 3 innings of hittless ball while striking out 6 and having Fredi pull him in the 4th for a PH.
First prediction: Kimbrel isn’t used before the 8th inning. I’ve heard Kimbrel say before how coming on in (not his words) high leverage situations is what gets him going, and I’m sure Fredi believes he’d be most effective in a situation like that. Thus, no way he starts the game, and I don’t think Fredi would see things leveraged enough before the 8th inning. Maybe he brings him into a tight situation in the 7th in a close game.
Second prediction: he starts Medlen, assuming the kid doesn’t implode in his final few starts. Let’s Med go at least 1 turn through the order, maybe 2, such that he pitches somewhere between 3-5 innings. Then it’s all matchups. So I guess I agree mostly with Michael.
For better or wose, I really don’t think Fredi would ever start a game with a reliever or put in a starter to relieve, unless (for the latter) we’re in extras and he put a starter on the roster for just that emergency purpose. The pitching decisions will obviously be important, but i feel there’s more disparity in talent among our bench than there is among our bullpen, so I worry about Fredi’s pinch hitting decisions more.
Oh boy, Fredi at the helm in a winner-take-all battle of wits. Should be fun(ny).
I agree with you. The “reliever train” idea as a strategy sounds appealing, but it ignores how individual players may respond to a situation they are not used to being in.
With so much on the line in this one game, I’m not sure the reward outweighs the risk … especially with Medlen thriving in the second half.
I agree. I could envision Kimbrel being used in the 7th in a tie game with runners 1st and 2nd nobody out, but in general I think the game plan will be exactly as you´ve stated.
I would strongly argue that every single inning and every single batter in any post-season is a high leverage situation, ESPECIALLY one that is single game elimination.
IMO, the play in game is the most important game of the post-season, But, I don’t think you change much for it. Burning more than one starter would mean disaster for the rest of the games if you win. Big game to me means Huddy starts and goes as far as he can and then the regular relief comes in. It worked all year. If you win, Meds is available for the next game. Of course, if you lose, everyone will say you should have started Meds.
For the one-game playoff, I’d much rather see Medlen than Hudson start. Huddy has been great for us all year, but he has had some notably awful starts, whereas Meds has had none. Huddy is the vet, of course, but I’d go with the hot arm.
And I believe there is a day off after the play-in game before the NLDS starts, so we could have Medlen rested and back ready to pitch in game 3, which is often just as important (if not moreso, could be an elimination game) as game 1.
Not a chance in hell Fredi does something so grossly out of his routine. He’ll probably start Hudson, with the intention of starting Medlen in the NLDS. I fully expect Durbin to be the first out of the bullpen, also.
great article. Will never happen and there is no use even wasting breath discussing it when our manager is fredi gonzalez.
The front office should bring Bobby Cox back for the post season.
Another thing to consider will be the lineup construction aspect of this. I’m sure teams will have a plan resembling this in the back of their minds at the very least. Will be important to disperse the lefties and righties in the lineup so we aren’t susceptible to huge platoon advantages.
The fangraphs article makes perfect sense, which is exactly why it won’t happen… sure would be a good idea to not let any pitchers hit and not put yourself in a situation to lose the game without your best pitcher taking the mound, but entirely possible if “conventional” baseball strategy is employed.
As much as I love the idea of starting with O’Ventbrel it’s pretty safe to say that is not happening…
So why not start Medlen (or Huddy), but let him know going in, he gets 5 innings max.
It allows him to put a little extra oomph on to each pitch knowing he won’t be throwing 100 pitches, and leaves him with enough gas in the tank he could come back for game 3/4 of the Nats series…
And if by some circumstance we take a large early lead (or hole) you pull the starter early and let Minor go a few innings to get to the later innings for the pen.
On a non-pitching front, at the very damn least Fredi needs to have a 3rd catcher on the roster (instead of the bloated corpse formerly known as Hanson) for the game so he can let Ross pinch hit.
I agree entirely regarding the catcher.
I really don’t think you should worry about losing both catchers in a play-in game. The odds of needing (even in McCann’s and Ross’s current state) a third catcher is incredibly low.
True, but Frediot NEVER let’s his 2nd Catcher pinch hit unless he has a 3rd on the bench…
I’m not saying a good good manager should put a 3rd catcher on the roster, I’m saying Wren should, to at least push Frediot in to making the “good” move with bench usage…
You kidding? Tommy will hopefully either be the last starter in the rotation or HOPEFULLY will be used as a ROOGY because of his great splits. If we play the Nats, they just have too many good LHB for Tommy to start any games against them. Because of his good splits AGAINST LHB, I would much rather run Sheets out there until he shows signs of breaking down.
Where did I say Hanson should start?
I called him a bloated corpse and said I’d rather have a 3rd catcher on the roster than him…
haha I was just saying he’s a better right handed ROOGY option out of the pen than Disturbin.
The idea of Tommy or Durbin getting in to the 1 game playoff scares me… Only way I’d feel comfortable is nobody on, up by at least 5, and Kimbrel waiting to take over if they get in trouble…
To add another wrench to the situation, what if we pull off some kind of miracle and tie the Nats for the division lead. As I understand it, the rules for this year will be a play-off for the division championship and not decided upon head-to-head. So now what do you do knowing that if you lose the tie-breaker, you’ve got to turn around and host the WC play-in game?
Fredi’s head would then explode.
Why is everyone complaining about how long the games are gonna be? ITS PLAYOFF BASEBALL!!!! If I was a manager I’d take my time to manage it to win, rather than speed it up for idiodic fans. Its one game, anyone can win. It should be exciting, and by the way…. GO BRAVES!!!!
Have to keep in mind that, along with managers, baseball players themselves are creatures of habit, especially pitchers. They prepare a certain way, have a certain game plan, a certain way of pitching, even a certain way of thinking about pitching. Remember when Verlander commented after getting shelled in the All-Star game that trying to let it all hang loose and throw harder messed with his pitching plan. I think if pitchers were robots, it would be a great strategy. But totally changing the way that routine-based human beings think about, approach, and execute their baseball talents would be a bad idea for a winner take all game. Choose your best starter and pull him if he gets in a situation where there are two on, less than two outs, or some other high leverage situation, and go from there.
Good points. Probably my biggest concerns as well. What if you start Kimbrel and he gets crushed?
I think that’s actually a physical impossibility, and all of the forces of nature would have to be turned on end. If anything, he would walk the world.
I agree with this. The Fangraphs analysis makes sense if you assume that the the pitchers are robots. But I agree that starting Kimbrel, while it looks great in theory, could easily lead to the same sort of result that we saw with Verlander in the All-Star game.
I think that the most “saber” strategy we could hope for from Fredi in this game would be for him to use O’Flaherty or Kimbrel in a high-leverage situation in the sixth or seventh inning, instead of calling on Durbin there, like he usually does.
And if the Braves lose, Fredi’s strategy will be analyzed ad nauseum. With that said, I had no idea about the 1 game playoff roster rules. This will definitely be interesting to see what teams become extremely creative, and if it is effective or not.
I think I’d like to see the pitchers never get an AB, which would limit them to 3 innings if we’re terrible offensively.
Start Medlen or Hudson, whichever is hotter going in. Then if he goes the first 5 innings and has 5-7 strikeouts and it’s a 0-0 or 1-0 game you gonna send him to the bench? Wow, this is a must win one game playoff. One game. Keep him in, win the game, and go from there. At least your now in a best of 5 series which anything can happen!!! If Medlen Has another good start tommorrow, he’s the one. I don’t care if he throws 10 innings, as long as we win and move forward. That’s better then trying to save him, try something stupid, lose 7-2 and have him sitting there eating sunflour seeds.
Regardless, this whole 1 game wild card game is a joke. You can’t start a reliever that doesn’t have ML starting experience. Relievers mental makeup is completely different from being a starter. You HAVE to go with a starter like Medlen and pull him after 3-4 innings to keep him fresh and sharp for the NLDS. Besides, even if we’re matched up against St. Louis they have the WORST ERA vs the Braves this year. The way I see it, it won’t matter which strategy we use for pitching because the offense should take care of business.
The argument is about possibly saving your best starter for the NLDS instead of burning him and then having the offense “take care of business.” I don’t think having prior experience in pitching the first 3 innings in a major league game should matter at all. This is about strategy and if you want to argue that O’Flaherty would be way less effective in the 2nd inning versus 3 LHB then you’re really in the wrong blog.
If you’re that concerned about them “starting”, drug them, wake them up just before the game, and tell them “hey, it’s the 7th inning, get out there; the scoreboard is broken, that’s why it says we’re in the 1rst”…
Besides, I’m not giving up on winning the division. 5 games back, but the Nats have the Phillies 6 times, and they are dangerous with their starters. They also play the Breweres 3 times, and Dodgers 3. That’s tough, they lose 9 of those 12 and maybe a couple more then we got this division locked!!! Or if they play a lil better than that and win let’s say 8 of their remaining total games. If we stay hot we could win our way in!!!! There’s lots of ways. A win and a Nats loss puts us 4 back!!! We can do it!!!!
“The Wildcard Game Will Be On Fredi Gonzalez’s Shoulders” We’re Doomed.
What if he use the strategy and the game goes to extras? I like using Medlen and riding him like a regular game because quite honestly he is our second best pitcher in a big leverage situation
Big thing about using the strategy is that you don’t have more than two starting pitchers on the roster, so you can have a couple extra bullpen arms and a couple of extra bench bats.
I think it is nuts to try to even change your strategy. Sure maybe it works and all, but you’ve gotten to this point playing like a normal team why not continue to do so? I’m afraid changing things up constantly would throw off any sort of normalcy and freak people out or be a distraction.
My God….Frediot tinkering with the bullpen flow chart?!? That shit is like cats and dogs living together….mass hysteria!!
My anxiety started kicking in pretty bad when I read the headline, and it got worse once I started reading the articles. I really like the idea of maximizing the value of the pen and really playing the matchups, but I just don’t see us doing that because of our schizophrenic offense. I think Medlen is most definitely going to get the call and HOPEFULLY we can score some early runs so he only has to go 3-5 innings, and with his efficiency he might only throw about 40 pitches. That would put him in line to start game 3. Fredi, Frank, and Co will want to utilize the best starter in the NL and go in for the kill, since it is a winner take all game.
On the opposite end, the situation for the opposing team doesn’t really effect how we could construct our lineup. All they have to do is throw every lefty they have at us while maybe subbing in a RHP against Simmons just for shits’n'giggles. I’ve been having day terrors at the prospect of facing Lee AND Hamels in one game–or *shudder* Milwaukee’s turd tossers.
Whoever faces us in the 1 game playoff just needs to get a soft tossing LHP to start their first ML game. That’s the most proven method of shutting down the Braves bats…
So how were the tie breaker games from recent years played? As game 163 the rosters were expanded so no need to leave starting pitchers off. But did managers use their staffs differently for a similar one-game playoff?
If we start Medlen, and gave a 3 run cushion after 3-5 innings pitched, pull him. Same goes if we are losing by 3 or more. But like I said if he’s pitching lights out and it’s a tight one, (0-0) or 1-0, we must keep the momentum in our favor and win the game. Pull him when we get a cushion.
Gonzo will go with Huddy, because it’ll be his turn in the rotation, plus “veteran” and all that. The only way he can save himself from himself is to go into the game with the plan that Hudson only goes 3 innings, the get 3 innings of long relief out of Meds, then Venters / Avilan / Gearrin / Moylan in the 7th, O’Flaherty in the 8th, and Kimbrel in the 9th.
Although I’m sure he’ll end up starting Hudson, Durbin in the 6th, Venters in the 7th, O’Flaherty in the 8th, then Martinez in the 9th since Durbin will have given up the game-winning homer already.
I agree, jimbo. Fredi is above all a cover-your-rear manager, and he’s very much attuned to clubhouse politics. For that reason, I don’t think there’s any chance that he’ll try something like Cameron suggests. It’ll be Huddy-Durbin-Venters, etc.
EVERYONE STOP SAYING DURBIN… Ahhhhhhhh!
Wren controls the roster, not Fredi… Can’t Wren please just leave Durbin off the 1 game roster to save us from Frediot?
I’m going to try and propose an idea that can past muster with those of us that look at pure percentages and someone like Fredi, who makes decisions less ideally.
Tim Hudson, the gritty veteran that he is, gets the start and throws once through the order. Medlen, a guy with experience coming out of the pen, comes on and goes once through the order. Realistically, you can get 5 innings from these two guys and have the final 4 innings left to play the match-ups and release O’Ventbrel.
Here’s the lineup, bench and bullpen:
Lineup: Bourn-8, Prado-4, Heyward-9, Jones-5, Freeman-3, Johnson-7, McCann-2, Simmons-6
Bench: Ross-R, Uggla-R, Janish-R, Francisco-L, Constanza-L, Overbay-L
Bullpen: Kimbrel-R, Martinez-R, Durbin-R, Gearrin-R, Hanson-R, Venters-L, O’Flaherty-L, Avilan-L, Minor-L
I like the idea. But I think you use Baker instead of Janish, or maybe even Pastornicky, or both. Then replace Hanson with Moylan and get rid of Durbin altogether (allowing Pastornicky) and stock up on pinch hitters so that Hudson/Medlen only hit once, possibly twice combined. From there on, no pitcher should be hitting.
I fear that the Cardinals and their lineup management may far outshine the ‘conventional’ management I expect to see from Fredi.
The only thing I would consider about your lineup is having Uggla start at 2nd, and Prado start in left (over Johnson). Disregard Prado’s defense being better at 2nd than Ugglas for a moment (Uggla hasn’t been terrible…). Uggla is a power threat in the lineup. Yes he’s had a rough year, but for a one game playoff, he’s one of our best long-ball threats that I want to bat 4-5 times a game. He has a solid OBP given his propensity to walk.
I could be mistaken, but I think the one game playoff is on Friday and Game 1 of the Division Series starts Sunday.
The Division Series is only five games and is over the following Friday.
I’d be a bit leery about running out Meds and Huddy in the same game with that sort of schedule.
My problem with this is you’ve now burned our top 2 starters chances of starting Game 1 vs the Nats…
There’s always Delgado!
OR Teheran!
Delgado & Teheran have bright futures ahead of them. But putting them in a win or go home game; I think for the sake of the blood pressure of all Braves fans, that’s a bad idea…
So far all I’m seeing is that the plan is unconventional. But I think everyone on this blog understands that in a game of numbers such as baseball, you HAVE to play the numbers. If they’re giving you the opportunity to play every favorable split, you have to do it, right? Not sure I agree with starting Kimbrel, I think I would start Medlen and let him go 3 or 4 innings, using Kimbrel to extinguish any rally the opponent may produce against Medlen. However, after that, you’ve got to play the matchups. I’m sure whoever we play will be smart enough to balance out the lineup with lefty/righty, so we’ve got to have every ROOGY and LOOGY available, which means no Hanson/Maholm. I also think we should do without Janish and go with (I can’t believe I’m saying this) Constanza, as he doesn’t create AS MUCH of an automatic out.
If Fredi takes a conventional path to making the roster and bullpen usage, we are automatically sacrificing percentage points in winning the game. I think if he loses the game, either way, he’s going to come under fire. The only way to prevent that is to win the game, and the fangraphs article’s idea gives us the best CHANCE to do that.
If Medlen starts he should be in there for the long haul. Starters and relievers have different approaches and Medlen’s approach to starting inables him to work in different pitches that is very effective. Plus I would rather see Medlen get in there and just win it than see Fredi try to get fancy, Fancy Fredi I like the sound of it. Anyway, If you run out six or seven pitchers in a game there is a better chance you send someone out there who has an off night and gives up 3 quick runs and all of a sudden you’re in deep crap. The idea of seeing Venters, Durbin, Martinez, Avilan all in the same game scares me. All they need to do is drop a couple starters and add a catcher and another position player or reliever and play the game like normal. Except have a really short leash with any pitcher. If someone gets in the least bit of trouble Fredi should hopefully find a favorable matchup before things blow up.
I think this is a prime example of when sabermetric-inclined fans (myself included amongst them) start to rub others the wrong way. The bullpen first strategy would be as Mike Myers’ Scottish shop owner once put it: “Great on paper, crap on grass.” It’s been said above by others but the baseball season is a beautiful grinding long haul in which routines help alleviate. Asking any human to do something one way for their whole life then another way when it counts just sounds like a bad idea. That being said, you can’t count on the NLDS till you’re in it. Assuming we can set up the rotation, start Medlen and pull him when he becomes ineffective or needed for a pinch hitter (which very well could be never).
Correct
What Bill said.
Barring Atlanta sinking into the Atlantic, I think we pretty much have the top wild card spot on lockdown. So, we should have a few extra days to rest some guys, and maybe give the all-hands-on-deck bullpen blitzkrieg a test run a few days before the wild card game.
Regardless, Medlen should be nice and rested if Fredo goes with the conventional approach.
That is an idea, try it on like Hanson’s last start. Let him go throught the order once and turn it over to the bullpen.
Pretty sure that will happen whether anyone wants it to or not
hahaha true
So much potential…
No wait,
So much FOR potential…
Yeah, that sounds like a good line for Hanson’s career…
This is easy. Start Medlen because he is our best pitcher right now. Let him pitch as long as he can because if you don’t win he has months to recover. Bring in O’Flaherty/Venters if needed and definetly let Kimbrel close it out. If, for whatever reason, Medlen can’t start I’d go with Hudson for experience. Let’s get some positive vibes going here peeps. Go Braves!
Let’s just hope we have a day where we are knocking the cover off the ball and we don;’t have to worry about pitching matchups. My heart can’t take a close game.
I think it makes the most sense to start Medlen, and let him pitch until his first at bat (being the home team, that means 2-3 innings), then you pull him and go bullpen the rest of the way. Medlen is still available to pitch game 1/2 of the NLDS, and you optimize your chances to win the play in game. I see no reason to waste a single at bat on a pitcher when it is a must win game and our bullpen is better than any starting pitcher, other than perhaps Medlen. Get 6-9 outs from Medlen, then 6 out of Kimbrel, and 9 out of Venters and EOF collectively, and then spread out the rest of the outs based on platoon splits and situation, saving Hudson in case it goes to extra innings. As good as Medlen is, and he has been amazing, he is not our best option the second or third time through the order. Some of the splits we could take advantage of:
Gearrin vs. righties (career): 1.58 FIP
Moylan vs. righties (since 2010): 2.88 FIP
Venters vs. lefties: 2.10 career FIP, 2.79 in 2012
Avilan vs. lefties (2012): 2.47 FIP
13 positions players:
8 regulars (Bourn, Heyward, Prado, Simmons, Jones, Freeman, Uggla, MCann/Ross)
4 for pinch hitting for pitchers (MCann/Ross,Francisco, Overbay, Pastornicky)
1 for situational at bats (Baker)
12 Pitchers – all should be ranked by optimal leverage usage and used in that fashion based on the game situation. Given that at the beginning of the game nothing else has occurred, then that is the highest leveraged situation at that point and would dictate using Kimbrel. Match ups from there. The starters would also be ranked in leverage maximizing scenarios and split usage.
High Leverage – Kimbrel, O’Flaherty, Medlen,
ROOGY – Gearrin, Hanson, Moylan,Durbin
LOOGY – Avilan, Venters
Other – Minor, Hudson, Martinez
Usage would obviously be dictated based on leverage only. For example, the Braves jump up 4-0 after 2inn, jump to using Durbin/Martinez for multiple innings until the leverage changes again.
Forgot about Johnson.. sub Johnson for Baker
Leave Tommy off for this game and add a 3rd Catcher so that Fredi feels comfortable letting Ross pinch hit (since we know he’d rather jump on a live grenade than let his only back up Catcher in the game, even if he is the best bat on the bench)…
What will probably be the roster:
Pitchers
Medlen
Minor
Kimbrel
O’Flaherty
Venters
Avilan
Gearrin
Moylan
Martinez
Durbin…ugh
Lineup
Bourn
Prado
Heyward
Freeman
Jones
McCann
Uggla
Simmons
Bench
Ross
Francisco
Baker
Constanza
Johnson (but vs. lefties, he starts over Uggla; Prado to 2B)
Overbay
Pastornicky (this one was tough because he sucks defensively but handles the bat better than Janish)
Assuming regular playoff roster rules apply, Overbay, Constanza, and Baker are NOT eligible for post-season play; they weren’t activated until September 1. We can probably get Constanza on the roster if MaDiaz is moved to the 60-day DL (or perhaps Baker, if he counts as an OF, I’m not sure exactly how that works). The “extra” position player eligible due to Andrelton being on the DL is wasted because the Braves wasted that spot on Aug. 31 on JC Boscan. I.e., the Braves activated Boscan on Aug. 31, making him eligible for the postseason (which is a bad sign, btw) and the other 3 (Baker, Overbay, Constanza) on Sep. 1, making them not. Hopefully, I am misunderstanding the rules.
To clarify, I believe Constanza, Baker, and Overbay are eligible for post-season play only if:
(1) they play the same position as a player who was on the DL on Aug. 31 and is on the DL at the end of the season (I’m not sure if it’s necessary to transfer to 60-day DL like I mentioned above), OR
(2) they play the same position as a player otherwise eligible to play in the post-season who is injured (and that injured player then would not be allowed to play thereafter in the post-season in any round).
Matt Diaz and Andrelton Simmons were the only position players on the DL on Aug. 31.
Activating Boscan on Aug. 31 means the Braves did not want to rely on (2) above in case of injury to Ross or McCann. Under (2) above, if Boscan was not on the 25-man on Aug. 31, he could still be called up to replace Ross or McCann in case of injury in the playoffs–but then the injured Ross or McCann would have to sit out the rest of the playoffs.
I could be wrong, but they have to be on the 40-man roster, not the 25-man active roster. Baker is not eligible. Overbay was acquired on Aug 20 and I assume was immediately placed on the 40 man roster. Jose “Mr October” Constanza has unfortunately been on the 40 man since last season.
OK, I looked it up: Major League Rule 40 says that only players on the active (25-man), DL, bereavement, paternity, suspended, or military lists at midnight Aug 31 are eligible for the postseason.
Baker, Constanza, and Overbay weren’t on any of those lists on Aug 31. So they can make the postseason roster only as injury replacements. Basically, before a series, any player in the organization on Aug 31 (and all 3 were in the organization on Aug 31) can be substituted for any other player who is eligible for the postseason but is then injured–with the permission of the Commissioner. There are no express requirements that the player be the same position as the injured player, but the Commissioner apparently also has discretion to refuse based on some unwritten criteria.
So we could get one in for Diaz for sure and probably another for Beachy and Robert Fish.
I’m not sure this is a good idea as it might get shut down because of one simple reason that I’m unsure about and will point out.
But instead of using all the ROOGYS AND LOOGYS out of the bullpen, why couldn’t we use the entire staff, but basically as situation pitchers. I wouldn’t think that using any one of the staff for one inning or an out or two would burn them for starting in the NLDS the next days (if we win). Of course, I’m not sure about that either.
The point is, IMO, if we need to get a big LH bat out and we’ve already burned O’Flaherty and Venters, I’d much rather have Minor come in than Avilan. Now, if that somehow means Minor isn’t available for the next 4 days, then not so much.
In case my idea was confusing… I’m talking about using all the starting pitchers as your bullpen and not having the likes of Avilan, Durbin, Moylan, Gearrin, etc… on the roster for that game.
SP-Medlen
Bullpen-Hudson, Minor, Maholm, Hanson, Venters, O’Flaherty, Kimbrel, Martinez
They would be the best pitchers if they are comforatble coming out of the bullpen. Depends on their approach. I think Hanson and Sheets even Delgado and Teheran could be nasty in the bullpen for one inning. You would see spikes in velocity and the lack of developed secondary pitchers for the younger ones are not as bad as they don’t need to fool players for multiple at bats.
You would want to save Hudson for the NLDS game one but the rest of the pitchers could be options.
I have wondered why Managers don’t start with a reliever for starters who have little chance of going 7 innings anyways – someone with as different an arm angle as possible – eg. Moylan or Gearrin, or a RH then LH, etc. Mess with the opponents starting first batters as deep as they can, then bring in your starter. If we had a knuckler would be fun to have them start every game.
For the WC, what about Moylan (1-2), then Hudson (2/4 – 3/6, he pitches the 1st in the bullpen for sure,), then whoever 5-9, leave Kimbral to the end or a major crisis. Put Medlan on the roster in case of meltdown, but have him start Game1 (and 4) if we win, and be endlessly criticized if we lose. Moylan and his Aussie mentality could have fun with it.
As much as a I hate to say it; Constanza needs to be on the roster for the one game….strictly as a pinch runner.
It’s true… But it physically hurts to admit…
Lineup Pos. Bench Bullpen
Michael Bourn – L CF David Ross Jonny Venters
Martin Prado – R LF Chipper Jones Cory Gearrin
Jason Heyward – L RF Reed Johnson Luis Avilan
Freddie Freeman – L 1B Paul Janish Peter Moylan
Dan Uggla – R 2B Jose Constanza Eric O’Flaherty
Brian McCann – L C Eric Hinske Craig Kimbrel
Juan Francisco – L 3B JC Boscan Kris Medlen
Andrelton Simmons – R SS Cristhian Martinez
Ben Sheets – R SP Chad Durbin
Go with Francisco because his splits are better when he starts, then gives Chipper off the bench. First RH PH is Ross, first LH PH is Hinske. Janish as defensive replacement late in the game. constanza for speed.
Pitching: Sheets for 2-3 innings, I know he hasn’t pitched in forever, but will help keep other team off balance. Give Venters a whole inning out of the pen, then play the situations betwwen Avilan, Moylan, and Gearrin through the 6th or 7th. Bring in E’OF for help in the 7/8th inning. If he can get through 8 go to Kimbrel for the lockdown. Have Medlen for any emergency (because he’s boss like that), Martinez for extras, and Durbin if we are up by 5… wait 6… nevermind 10 runs.
This is what happens when people try to get to fancy. “Go with Francisco because his splits are better when he starts”. I don’t care what is splits are Chipper is better and should be in there the whole game. It’s like everyone saying you have to bat a lefty against a righty or whatever. Play the player that gives you the best chance to win.
Who should bat against a righty.
Player A against RHP .214/.294/.330
Player B against RHP .275/.331/.358
Player A is Hinske and Johnson is B. I would rather see Johnson pinch hit against a RHP than Hinske in a high leverage situation because he is better. i don’t care about left or right handed.
If you realistically think Chipper isn’t going to start, assuming he’s healthy, you’re out of your mind.
The idea is that this is not a normal game. If this is a one run ballgame late, I want Chipper batting to win rather than Francisco, Johnson, Hinske, etc. Plus you have then given Chipper enough rest to start game 1 assuming you win.
3 Chipper AB > than 1. I would rather use Chipper to get a lead than hope he saves me in one AB. Play to win from the beginning not play to try and hope you strike at the end.
I agree, just some outside the box thinking. I’d personally have Francisco have two at-bats then have Chipper finish out the game.
Put yourself in Fredi’s position. You make the playoffs in a one-game win or go home in Chipper’s final season, which by the way, would be held in Atlanta, and the opposing teams scores 8 runs in the 1st inning.
You don’t have Chipper in the lineup so you wait until a key moment later in the game. Chipper comes up and gets pitched around. Next hitters go quietly. Chipper ends up with 1 AB and maybe a couple defensive innings in HIS LAST GAME EVER.
Do you honestly believe you would make it out of the stadium alive??
Did you even stop to think before typing your post?
Yes but that’s the same flawed argument to saving your best reliever until the 9th exclusively. Why in the hell wouldn’t you want arguably your best hitter to get 4-5 PAs in the game, and to just save him for a hypothetical high leverage situation late in the game?
You do bring up a good point of having Janish as a defensive replacement. The idea of having Uggla involved in an important play defensively in a 1 run game in the 9th terrifies me. Shades of Raw Dog Conrad.
Chipper has to play every inning of playoff baseball. Pretty sure he has roughly the next 40 years to rest.
Also, Chipper’s 2012 splits vs RHP are so much better than Juan’s that it negates any further argument.
CJ: 289 / .382 / .500
JF: .253 / .301 / .493
Rumor has it that Gonzalez hired Dog The Bounty Hunter to track down Scott Proctor for the bullpen in the playoffs.
Check out the Sweetspot http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot cause its discussed there as well now.
This is a fantastic comment thread. Why does it seem like in spite of all these interesting scenarios, Medlen will start and go 7, followed by Venters and Kimbrel?
@ johnWDB…
Exactly what I said. This talk is all pointless with Fredi as our manager. Pretty much he will start medlen or hudson. If he does as I hope and he starts medlen, hopefully he can go 7 with a fairly decent pitch count and then we go to the BP. If he starts huddy hopefully he has a decent start and doesn’t have an inning where he gets tagged for 4 ER….. we will see…
Has everyone seen this on Medlen http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UCzGAkp3X9Q from the same guys who did Chipper go Yicketty video.
Sorry here is the official link. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-EF91gJ6D0E&feature=relmfu
Would love to see someone besides Gearrin pitching to Reyes here.
O RLY?
Good gravy, I wish Tony La Russa had waited until after this year to retire. With Fredi as his counterpart, this game might use all 50 players.
I just hope Fredi doesn’t over think more than he already does. Medlen has been the best starter. Hopefully he can go 6 or 7 innings. Then use the back end of the bullpen, which has been very good all season. Here is what should NOT happen:
1. Reed Johnson starts
2. Constanza pinch hits
3. Christian Martinez comes in the game
4. David Ross pinch hits
5. Frediot plays the dumb match up game he plays every night. OFlarety and Venters have good enough stuff to get lefties and righties out.
1. I don’t see a non-injury scenario where this happens
2. I wholeheartedly agree
3. Uh.. what’s wrong with Martinez? You would rather see Durbin?
4. Uhhhhh… he’s the best RHB on the bench.
5. Check out Venters’ splits vs LHB.
Honestly, I threw up in my mouth a little when I saw the headline.
With a 25 man roster strictly set for the one-game WC playoff you have to play it just like you would a game 7 of the WS, all hands on deck. That doesn’t mean go completely unconventional though. You would like to think that Fredi, Roger and maybe Wren will sit down at some point and hash out the whole concept of how to approcach this game. I think you begin with a list of people who you are completely comfortable using in this game. That list should include Medlen, Hudson, O’flaherty, Kimbrel, and Venters/Moylan (in very specific situations only for those two). At that point you have to discuss the best way to guide yourself through this game with the hopes of only having to use these pitchers. With that in mind, that is why I actually think it makes sense to use Hudson as the starter. While Huddy has not been as good as Medlen, if he were to get in trouble (say 3-0 in the 3rd inning), then you would still feel comfortable with Medlen as a reliever because of his experience doing it this season to bring him in and allow the team to catch back up before turning it over to the late inning relievers. If you start Medlen and have the same issues (again, something like 3-0 in the 3rd inning) then you would feel much left comfortable asking Hudson to come out of the pen, something he has done very little in his entire career. That would leave you coving innings with the likes of Durbin, Avilan (who has actually been quite good too), Martinez and Gearrin. That is not ideal.
If you start Hudson, you are much more likely to only have to use the pitchers that you truly trust to get outs, and be able to do so in roles and situations that are somewhat familiar. No doubt Medlen is better right now, just might not be the right option to start this game.
As for the 25 man roster, you just need to keep Hudson, Medlen and either Maholm or Minor on the roster for it, and you can add two bench bats (Overbay, Constanza?) in those spots. You could also probably leave off from the regular bullpen if you want a particularly stacked bench. For example, I like the idea of having a 3rd catcher because we dont want to be stuck with McCann or Ross on the bases as game winning or tying runs late.
Yes, they could do that OR you may just see Fredi do his “look I’m managing” impression.