9/20 News, Links, Discussion: Remaining Games, Hudson’s Future, Draftstreet Offer
September 20, 2012 at 1:42 pm by David Lee under Atlanta Braves
Draftstreet Offer
The Draftstreet freeroll offer is back. It’s a $150 prize pool and 10 places paid, and it’s for the games this Friday (9/21). Follow this link to play.
Down the Stretch
The Braves took care of business with a 3-0 win on Wednesday, giving them the series win over the Marlins.
With the win, the Braves are 12-6 in September, the most notable stretch, of course, being the three-game sweep over the Nationals. Washington split a doubleheader with the Dodgers on Wednesday to remain five games ahead of the Braves in the NL East. Over the same month, the Nationals are 10-7.
As has been the case for much of the second half, the rest of the Braves schedule is favorable. After several close games over the past week, the bullpen could use a day off, which they will get today and at the end of the current series with the Phillies. They will use the second off day to travel home to host the Marlins and Mets in their final homestand of the regular season. We all know how the Braves have played those two teams lately.
And the final series is on the road against the Pirates, who have faded terribly in the second half to the tune of 26 wins and 37 losses, including just four wins this month.
If you read this blog, I probably don’t have to tell you anything can happen over a single game, series, month or even season. But the talent level of the teams remaining on Atlanta’s schedule is less than stellar, and over the course of a season that tends to show eventually. It has done so for each of these teams, and the Braves should reap the benefits on the way to a playoff berth. It doesn’t hurt that their chances of making the playoffs right now are 99.9%.
Hudson’s Future
Dave Cameron of FanGraphs writes on five tough roster calls this offseason, including Tim Hudson’s $9 million team option, for ESPN Insider. While fastball velocity is important, Cameron takes it a bit too far in saying it’s a concern when he “bottomed out” at a two mile-per-hour difference over the span of two months.
Hudson’s velocity has dropped slightly this year, but his contact rates haven’t changed, and he isn’t benefiting from BABIP any more than usual. He’s also allowing fewer home runs than his career average, and his FIP is right in line with his career norm.
Will Hudson decline? Of course. He’s 37 years old. But to throw up red flags based on a slight drop in velocity and swinging strike rate for a pitcher who relies on completely different factors to succeed isn’t how you go about determining his decline.
More Links
Braves.com recap for Wednesday’s win.
AJC quotes following Wednesday’s win. Chipper Jones: “We made an adjustment against Josh. He gets so many swings and misses on that back-foot slider, down and in to lefties. You didn’t see a lot of swings on those. I know he got a couple, but not near what he’s got in the past against us.”
“You could tell by the swings we were taking in the first three innings that we were getting in predictable counts and getting pitches we wanted to hit, and putting them in play.”
From Braves.com notes, Fredi Gonzalez is pondering his No. 1 starter for the playoffs. It will come down to either Kris Medlen or Tim Hudson, with Medlen currently lined up to make the start in the wild card game. The Braves have two off days surrounding this weekend to tinker with that, however. But as far as traditional “best starter on the mound in the biggest game” goes, I would say Medlen at this point.
Also in notes, the Braves could get Andrelton Simmons back this weekend with an outside chance of starting Friday. Paul Janish was sent back to Atlanta for evaluation on his shoulder and won’t know his fate until later today or tomorrow.
John Sickels of Minor League Ball has a report on Edward Salcedo. “The potential saving grace for Salcedo is age: he’s only 21. The Braves have assigned him to the Arizona Fall League, and it will be extremely interesting to see how he handles it. Based on what he’s done so far in pro ball, his transition to Double-A next year isn’t likely to be a smooth one. Expectations need to be tempered until Salcedo proves he has the skills to make his tools meaningful.”
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I’m sure more will be written on this in the offseason, but what is your (and CAC’s collective voice) opinion on Hudson?
9 million is pretty steep and I assume we could get someone who similarly helps the team for cheaper in the offseason (although I do not know all the potential FA pitchers for this coming winter).
I feel like Hudson could get offered about the same in free agency from a contendor.
Hudson will decline, but his production right now and in the future is still mid-rotation worthy. If he stays healthy, I think he’d be worth that $9 million. He’s certainly worth more than an incentive-laden deal, and he would get much more than that as a free agent. I think the Braves will keep him around as long as he remains productive.
WAR says Huddy is a bargain at $9mill (2.4 so far in 2012) he could expect to get a one/two yr deal at $10+mill per I bet
Picking Huddy over Medlen for the wild card game–assuming there’s a 0% chance Fredi will go w the bullpen onslaught option–would be madness. Huddy has given up 4 runs or more in 5 of his last 8 starts. Medlen gave up 2 runs once and that was after we were blowing out the Mets.
Is Huddy going over Medlen being discussed anywhere or are you just speculating?
It’s mentioned in David’s article above, and Frediot has mentioned it several times in interviews. It comes down to picking your veteran “ace” who has 9 post-season starts under his belt, or the 26 year old relief pitcher turned starter who has been brilliant for 2 months.
Hudson lately has been dominant through all but 1-2 innings where he then seems to just lose his command. I would love to win the division and not have to think about this at all, but you kind of have to go with Medlen. It shouldn’t even be a discussion.
David really only mentions Huddy as being the other alternative but points to Medlen as being on track to start and highlights the ways in which it could be Huddy. He doesn’t really claim that Freddi is making moves to set this up.
Of course it’s an option and Freddi would probably be wrong to not at least consider his options. Let’s not start hating Freddi for a potential decision until he makes one.
I’m too lazy to post links for the several quotes from Fredi on the topic. You could find them on the AJC or Braves site.
Yeah, Fredi said it’s Hudson or Medlen. Which scares me if Meds has a rough outing or two in his last couple starts. I’d be fine with Med starting the WC game and if the Braves somehow jump to an early lead bringing in someone else after 2-3 innings, to leave the door open for a game 2 NLDS start.
I’d pick up that option on Hudson in a heartbeat.
In yesterdays quote’s fredi pretty much laid it out that it would be one or the other, but he didn’t say which way he was leaning.
On the hudson contract, I’d like to see him take a little less, and I think he really would go for it. He really likes atlanta, the FO, the attitude of the organization as a whole. And he has a foundation based out of Alabama. I am sure somebody might offer around the same, but probably in the last leg of his career he might just want to settle. ATL could use that to their advantage.
He could just make up the difference in at&t commercials..
I could see the Braves offering him a 2 yr deal worth say $16 mill, say $7 mill per yr salary and a $2 mill bonus or something (buying out the option )
I agree. Leadership is an intangible that Hudson brings that is hard to put a dollar value on. But with Chipper retiring, I would definitely invest a couple of years in Hudson.
Huddy is gonna want that third year. I think it’s important to have a veteran presence in the clubhouse that everyone respects once chipper leaves.
Are you deliberately trying to sound like Frediot?
There’s nothing wrong with what he said as long as Hudson can still play. I understand that animus that the sabermetric community has toward intangible aspects, but it’s fair to say, I think, that psychology and leadership play some role on a team. It certainly doesn’t trump talent and a lot of baseball people go to far with it, but to simply assume that everyone that extols veteran leadership is simply a fool seems unwarranted. I suspect that the Braves do benefit from having Chipper in the clubhouse as someone who has experience and can help the younger players. I wouldn’t keep someone around just becaue of that but it certainly can’t hurt.
He has a $1M buyout so the question is: Is he worth $8M? The answer in my opinion is yes. The risk of a multi-year deal is not worth taking because of who the Braves have coming up combined with Huddy’s age. Two benefits of picking up his option are that it takes them through Beachy’s injury and buys the Braves another year to see if Delgado and Teheran are the real deal.
Are we really discussing whether Hudson’s option should be picked up?
Jesus, let me settle it for you. YES! YES! YES! YES! YES!
No more discussion.
Seriously.
Unless the question is whether the Braves offer him a longer-term deal to supersede the option.