Game 154: Braves 4, Marlins 3 (Braves Clinch)
September 25, 2012 at 10:03 pm by David Lee under Atlanta Braves
Source: FanGraphs
Game MVP: Donovan Solano, .548
Least Valuable Marlin: Mike Dunn, -.832
Most Valuable Brave: Freddie Freeman, .484
Least Valuable Brave: Andrelton Simmons, -.176
Big plays:
2nd – (MIA) Donovan Solano solo homer for a 1-0 Marlins lead, .123
2nd – (ATL) Dan Uggla RBI single for a 1-1 tie, .114
6th – (ATL) Jason Heyward triple with one out, .127
7th – (MIA) Solano two-run homer for a 3-2 Marlins lead, .453
9th – (ATL) Chipper Jones leadoff double, .243
9th – (ATL) Chipper advanced on a wild pitch, .147
9th – (ATL) Freddie Freeman two-run homer for a 4-3 win, .441
WPA might be in favor of the Marlins in this game, but the result is all that matters, and the result is a walk-off, two-run homer by Freddie Freeman to clinch a playoff spot for the Braves.
The Freeman home run, worth .441 WPA, is the second most valuable play of his career so far, but it’s sure to be the most memorable.
Kris Medlen was again outstanding, allowing three runs on the two Donovan Solano home runs, giving up five hits over seven innings. He didn’t walk any and struck out eight. The Freeman home run pushed the Braves’ winning streak in Medlen starts to 22.
Just another night to remember among a season of great memories.
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Four back of the Gnats…
I’m hoping the Braves aren’t “flat” tonight after such an emotional win and celebration last night. Just four games behind the Nats and Atlanta has to probably go 7-1 or at worst, 6-2, in their final 8 games to have a chance to catch them. (Is 8-0 too much to ask for?) The Phillies seem to have the Nats’ “number” this season and can help themselves to a winning season AND the Braves quest to catch the Nats in their final 8 games, 5 against the Nats. Braves Nation! This is why we are Atlanta fans! This scenario is very realistic!!
Great day for our Bravos……THIS…..is why we chop!!!!!
Thr Nats have 5 remaining with the Phillies who have been killing the Nats this year and 3 against the Cardinals who will be giving it everything to secure a playoff spot. We have the Marlins, Mets and Pirates.
Im calling it. The NL East lead is far from secure
Agreed, Braves will be facing Triple-A lineups most of the way. Remaining schedule definitely favors the Braves pretty heavily. Chances are slim, 3.4%, but not totally out of the questions. Must make up 5 games with 8 to play.
that was fun
Just looked at the box score – did anyone else not realize that O’Flaherty’s ERA is now 1.79?
guess how many ER O´Flaherty has given up since the All Star Break.
O’Flaherty with 1 unearned run since the break for a 0.375 ERA.
Kimbrel 0.68 in 26 1/3
Venters 2.03 in 22 1/3
Medlen 1.01 in 89 1/3
That is filthy
If the Natty Ice / Milwaukee’s Best in the cooler for the playoff clinching celebration is any indication of the team’s upcoming financial situation, then we’re in trouble.
Hm? It was Bud Light -.-
GO BARVES!
they’re southern boys drinking some bud light. it’s an indicator that they like to party
Putting the Nats on ice dude
On the other hand, if the Braves can afford to buy 50 bottles of champagne for the sole purpose of pouring all over the players, then it might not be so bad.
After today, I have to believe that Medlen has some kind of baseball ghost looking after him. The Braves refuse to lose whenever he starts.
Our biggest obstacle to catching the Nats is Tommy Hanson, who is scheduled to start on Thursday. Sending him out there for that start is waving the white flag. Fredi has say Uggla and McCann when they weren’t performing – if they’re serious about winning the division, they need to start Delgado, or a tag-team of relievers, or anyone but Hanson, on Thursday.
Come on, he’s not THAT bad. And did you see the numbers Delgado put up in his last handful of AAA starts? Wasn’t pretty.
Hanson has not been the problem lately, its been the total lack of run support that makes him look bad. Remember you can’t win if you don’t score.
I’m glad it was Freddie who got the hit to send him to the postseason. He was so heartbroken last year being the last out. Sometimes there really is a poetry to this game.
I couldnt agree with driver 8 more, pitching tommy hanson this week is not a good idea.
Pitching Tommy Hanson at all for the rest of this season isn’t a good idea.
Yes it’s true Hanson has not been getting the run support he received early in the season, which by the way is the only reason he sits on 12 wins at this juncture. While he needs run support to win he needs to also keep the team in the game, something he’s not very adept at. Looking at his BB/K ratio speaks volumes about his season, his lack of control is atrocious! Only Frediot, with even the most minute chance of winning the division, would start Hanson. IMO and many others, Hanson should be sitting in the BP…I’d take my chances with Delgado or a Delgado/Teheran duo to fill the fifth spot in the rotation in this critical part of the season and the playoffs than to lay down and give up with running Hanson out there. Again, just my opinion but I guarantee it’s shared by the large majority on CAC and Braves fans at large.
I say you start Hanson, and get your 3 innings out of him. Then bring in Delgado and let him go 2-3. Both pitchers had similar stories about being solid, albeit with control issues, then not being able to avoid a big inning that seemed to usually become between the 4-6 innings. If you can squeeze their best innings out of them, kind of the way the Rockies are doing things, I’m confident the bullpen can shut it down the rest of the way. Not to mention I’d like to see Delgado get some time and pitch well before the postseason so that he may become an option in front of Hanson, should we need to play a tiebreaker as well as a WC game.
Anyone know if the plan is to go with 4 guys throughout the playoffs for the most part? Obviously Hanson may have to make a start based on needs, but I think we’d be fine with just 4.
Great idea! It’s working so well for the Rockies…..oh wait….
I actually think just starting Hanson in normal fashion is well within the range of reasonable moves, and not an indication of managerial incompetence. The thing is, the Braves’ odds of catching the Nationals remain extremely low. Hanson or not, projecting them to better than, say, 6-2 down the stretch is very optimistic, and in that case the Nats would have to go 2-6 to even set up a one-game playoff. With that kind of uphill climb, I think it’s completely reasonable to want to keep your team on an even keel, not changing up your pitcher usage patterns too much.
Hmm, now I’m doubting myself a bit. I’ll say this: if the Braves pick up another game tonight, that improves their chances quite a bit. In that case, it might really be best to start treating the rest of the regular season as must-wins until mathematical elimination. But if the Braves stay 4 back, I think it’s totally defensible to go with Tommy for a normal start. If they end up 5 back, it’s time to start resting regulars.
I can agree with that. If we drop to 5 back after tonight, there’s no point. Maybe even if it stays at 4. But if we pick up a game tonight, there’s no reason for Hanson to pitch. Or if he does, make sure his leash is very very short. With all those rested relievers, it doesn’t make sense to watch Tommy implode like he has done too many times already. Give Delgado some innings, then just go to matchups until you get to the big 3. Of course, all of this is a huge if. And he’s also set to match up against Jacob Turner, who should allow some runs of his own.
Any idea of what the chances jump to if we pick up a game tonight?
Nope, not really. Also, I think the percentages on sites like CoolStandings and BP start to break down when you get into situations like this, because there just isn’t enough time for the probabilities to even out.
If they end the night 3 back with 7 to play, then in order to tie:
If the Nationals go 0-7, Braves need to go 3-4.
If the Nats go 1-6, the Braves would need to go 4-3.
If the Nats go 2-5, the Braves would need to go 5-2.
If the Nats go 3-4, the Braves would need to go 6-1.
If the Nats go 4-3, the Braves would need to go 7-0.
I can’t really put a percentage on that. Just take it one game at a time, I guess.
In the case of a tie for 1st place in the division with the Nationals, is there a one-game playoff? Or does the league break the tie based on head-to-head?
Also, how is the home field team determined?
You may say I’m a dreamer…
One game playoff and I believe the wildcard is the day after– not sure about field advantage.
I haven’t looked at anything, but I’m assuming that in the case of a tie between us and the Nats, they’d have home-field in any division-playoff scenario due to owning the season series against us 10-8, then if we lose that game, we’ll host the wild-card game the next day in Atlanta.
This is true. If the Braves catch the Gnats, there will be a 1 game playoff in DC next Thursday due to Gnats winning the season series against the Braves. I bought my ticket to that game the day they went on sale in hopes that some magic might happen… Go Braves!
Brandon is right:
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?c_id=mlb&content_id=36405618&vkey=pr_mlb&ymd=20120809
If there’s a tie for the division, there will be a one-game playoff, even if both teams are assured of making the playoffs (which makes sense, since winning the division now is such a huge advantage over being the wild card). Head-to-head record determines home field for that one game, assuming the record isn’t even. I assume this game would be played Thursday.
[...] The Atlanta Braves clinched a spot in the Wild Card play-in game with a victory last night over the Miami Marlins. [Capitol Avenue Club] [...]
If we are open to Hanson missing a start to increase the chance of winning the division, we have to be honest about the fact that Hanson shouldn’t be starting in the playoffs. In that case, his usage should shift to longman, but Ben Sheets, if healthy, would challenge him for that role. This may be a moment when Fredi has to make that difficult decision based on performance.
I posted these Tommy Hanson 2012 splits last week:
Tommy Hanson (2012):
vs R: .240/.317/.378
vs L: .298/.368/.517
pitches 1-30: .233/.301/.383
pitches 31-60: .319/.391/.539
Innings 1-3: .244/.330/.386
Innings 4-6: .291/.359/.521
Hanson turns into a pumpkin after 4 innings, so I agree with the posters who said we should pitch him 3 and relieve him with Teheran or Delgado (or Martinez). That won’t happen, because it would require too much understanding of numbers and unconventional managing. You’ll see Hanson pitch until he melts down in the 5th or 6th. Then we’ll have to claw our way back from the resultant 3-run deficit.
That’s great info on Hanson’s splits. I would tend to agree with you and @Spencer regarding that unconventional approach with Hanson going 3 then my preference would be for Delgado to follow for 3 then hand it over to the BP. However, we all know as you said that Fredi will never take that approach based on his love fest for Hanson for some ungodly reason…he’ll stick with Hanson until he implodes and we’re down 4-5 runs before he gives him the hook. Regarding the rotation, I am however pleasantly surprised Fredi did move Medlen up a day to align him to start the WC game next Friday. Given Fredi’s track record I would have never put money on him making a common sense move like that.
Not sure you should blame this all on Fredi – it seems to me that Hanson gets a much quicker hook than anyone else in the rotation, with good reason. I’m not naive enough to think that the Braves can convince another team to offer something of significant value for Hanson this offseason, but I do think that pulling him from the rotation now would essentially liquidate any remaining value and possibly even precipitate a non-tender. Frank Wren might have more influence on this than Fredi.
Correct posts about Hanson’s trade value. It is zero if he pitches again – we are stuck with him. Perhaps we and DL him for the rest of the year
If his trade value is truly zero, he will be non-tendered no?
@ john. Great post. I can’t believe anyone here would be arguing to pitch hanson longer than 3 innings, or that he gets no run support, or any other excuse. The guy has flat out lost his stuff. Sinking velocity over the last two years, and loss of command. He has no out pitch……! His fastball is now usually around 87-88 and he leaves it belt high way to often…… Keep this guy away from our playoff rotation.
I knew I remembered seeing those numbers somewhere. Thanks for the post @John. I will say that Fredi has done so much better in the second half of this year than he did the other 1 1/2. He seems to be managing the numbers well, for the most part, save a couple of head scratchers. You can’t blame Fredi for giving Hanson the start, but how he reacts to the way he’s pitching will mean a lot. I’d like to see what Fredi does in a must-win like this one is sure to be. And eventually, you’d think he would want to give Sheets/Delgado a look in the regular season rather than just magically appearing in the playoffs.
If I’m correct, at least one of those two will be pitching out of the bullpen in the postseason, correct? I couldn’t picture a better time to give lots of pitchers a look than a Tommy Hanson start.
Good post and very true. Like many mnagers, Fredi operates off the Homer Simpson “This has gone on just long enough…” model.
Prado throwing dirt, Ross doing a little hibbity-jibbity, Hinske doing the jump around, Chipper the box out, get the hell out of the way, then throw the helmet, Hudson skipping to the plate, Uggla and Heyward doing the bounce bounce at home plate. And Freddie doing the skywalk into home plate. That was awwwwssoommme.
On a CAC level note. I love how the Braves set Meds up for the Play In Game spot and should there be a playoff with the Gnats, I think it would fall to Hudson based on this weekend’s rotation. Pitching has been great – Minor and Meds were the trading deadline studs needed to shore up the rotation and the bullpen is on fire (hey, we didn’t have to pich every game!). Assuming good luck in the play-in game, this Braves team is hitting the post season in great stride. 4 down, 8 to go, it can be done!
Nats will face Kendrick, Halladay, Wainright, Lohse, Lynn, Kendrick, Halladay the next 7 games. Kendrick has owned them the last 2 years, even more than he has owned us. Maybe Halladay will remember how to be Halladay all the sudden. He should be plenty rested after his 1.2 inning start against us.
having the 40-man roster now, do we have Delgado and Tehran in the roster? If so, Fredi really needs to wisen up and use either one or both of them to fill Handon’s spot in the rotation. If not that option, he should start Hanson Thursday and evaluate his final game stats as the descion for wether or not to keep him in the starting position for the playoffs. I’ve been saying it all year, and nobody can argue the truth, the only reason Hanson is sitting on 12 wins is because of the run support he’s been given! yes, he’s had some quality starts this year, but his “success” in games a.k.a. his W columb numbers, are largely accredited to his run support. Fredi needs to listen for a darn minute to someone who’s speaking truth and fix the Hanson situation or we’re going to have an even bigger problem on our hands that the one we have right now. Go Braves
I think the Hanson hate has been overblown. Yes, he’s been awful, yes, his velocity’s down, and yes, his once-bright future is now seriously in doubt. But he still has a higher K% than anyone on our staff besides Medlen, and he had better walk numbers than Delgado, the primary choice to replace him. It is not unreasonable in any sense of the word for the Braves to consider him our fifth best starter at the moment. In fact, I agree that he probably is. Also, it’s worth noting that Hanson’s strikeout rates are in line with 2009 and better than 2010. They’re only worse than his injury-shortened 2011. While I am as disappointed as anyone that Tommy Hanson probably will not be the ace we thought he could be a few years ago, he could very well continue to be a solid mid-to-back end starter. His future after this season is only up in the air because we have so many talented, young arms.
Is anyone else worried about the offense? Making the playoffs is great and all, but I want to advance in the playoffs. The Braves have been scoring just enough runs to eek out wins, while the pitching staff has posted one quality start after another and the bull pen has been awesome. But runs always come at a premium in the post season. The Braves lineup isn’t exactly on fire at the moment.
The only way this gets better is when the Phillies get eliminated from playoff contention.
Chris,
I’d rather watch the Nats take Philly out in the WC game, personally.
Works for me, but it’s not looking good for Philly. Was really hoping they’d sweep the Nats.