Braves Outfield Numbers
October 3, 2012 at 8:52 am by Ben Duronio under Atlanta Braves
If there is one group the Braves could not have lived without this year, be it the rotation, the bullpen, the infield, or the outfield, the group to choose without a doubt would be the outfield. Here are some numbers that detail just how incredible they were this season.
All three outfielders were 6 win players or better by fWAR
All three outfielders were 5.4 win players or better by bWAR
The top three players in all of baseball by UZR are Bourn, Heyward, and Prado in order. That’s not just top three outfielders, that’s top three players. Of course, UZR has its issues, but there is no doubting that all three are tremendous defensively. On that side of the ball, I’m not sure I have personally seen a better group.
All three are in the top six in stolen bases for their respective outfield positions.
All three are in the top three of fWAR at their respective outfield positions. Heyward has been the top right fielder by WAR, while Prado has been the second best left fielder (behind Ryan Braun) and Bourn has been the third best center fielder (behind Mike Trout and Andrew McCutchen).
If you have any other wild notes about the outfield, leave them in the comment section.
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We’re also paying them all three around a combined $12.5 M for the season, according to FanGraphs WAR/$ they have been worth around $84.5 M. Not bad, ehh?
Not to mention the millions that Bourn is saving us in payroll by nosediving offensively if we want to resign him. Although I’m sure some team is going to come along and overpay for him. I definitely expected a stronger finish in a contract year. 30+ stolen bases isn’t too bad but he’s also been thrown out around 25% of the time.
saw on espn.com that the rockies might be looking to move dexter fowler. he’s an atlanta native, had a pretty good year, only 26. an option if we can’t resign bourn?
I would love to have Fowler here, but it could be risky. As long as we don’t pay too much for him, he could turn out to be a really good player. The red flags are his BABIP is .390, about 40 points higher than his career average. He is also not a very good CFer, using his speed as his only real asset. He hasn’t looked good in the field, nor has he rated well. The risk is that 2012 will be an aberration, but he’s only 26 and 2012 could be the start of what’s to come. He does have a career BB% of 12.1, which is a good bit better than Bourn’s 8.8%, so he does get on base, but only had 12 steals this year. If you look at Fowler as a risk project, it’s worth it. But if you look at him as the future CF, it could get a little hairy.
I’ve been thinking about that too, Billy. Best case scenario is that we resign Bourn. However, if that can’t happen, I say we make a move to sign Dex from Colorado, shipping out Tommy Hanson and receiving a prospect as well. I’ve always liked Fowler, and while he isn’t Bourn, I think he would do a great job and be a good fit for us. Plus, he batted .300 this year and had 13 long balls giving him a higher avg, hr total, and ops than Bourn….Here is his player card for those who want to look him up real quick http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/stats/_/id/29252/dexter-fowler
Yeah, but how many of those homeruns and how much of that average is because of hitting in the hitter “friendly confines” of Colorado?
I’m not an expert at relating ballpark factors to stats, but I imagine you take of at least 4-5 of those homeruns and maybe 10 points from the average if you put him in Atlanta.
Why oh why would the Rockies consider Hanson for Fowler and a prospect
I would cry tears of joy for weeks if the Rockies went for that.
Yeah that comment made me cringe. If anything a prospect or two would be going the Rockies way.
I see getting Fowler as reseting back to 2010 Bourn, but without as much certainty.
It progressively got worse. From Hanson, to batting average, to home run totals, to his ESPN player card….
Cool thanks guys. I dunno, the Rockies traded for Jeremy Guthrie to try and solve their pitching woes…I dont see Tommy Hanson as much worse than that.
They traded Guthrie for Jonathan Sanchez, who was a 29 year old with a career ERA of 4.58 and career FIP of 4.32. He also has a career BB/9 of 5.00. I’d say a 26 year old, ex- top prospect CF who just hit .300 is a little more valuable.
Heyward’s improvement has really been unsung. Has been leading the league in BSR all year. the only stat that Trout doesn’t contol on FG.
Hanson making every other start in Colorado would be a horror show.
Seems like I’m alone here, but I don’t think it’s financially wise to sign Bourn for more than 4 years (which means we don’t sign him). I think the Braves will be priced out, and that’s not such a bad thing. Not sure you want to pay Bourn 14 mil at ages 33-35. Angel Pagan is 18 months older, but he can be had for a 3 year deal, half as much per season. He’s an an above average CF’er, a slightly better pure hitter, and he’s a switch hitter without huge dropoffs against lefties. That’s my vote. Angel Pagan, 3 years, 18-21 mil.
That’s a good point, John. I hadn’t thought about Pagan. I agree that Bourn is too much of a risk with anything past 3 years. I would still like to try Heyward in CF and go after Swisher to play RF. I would keep Prado in LF and play Francisco at 3B. So basically the lineup’s L/R stays the same by replacing the lefty Bourn with Francisco and switch Chipper with Swisher. I think moving Heyward to CF will keep his speed and fielding attributes sharper than RF would, which keep him as a valuable player even if he isn’t hitting particularly well. Has anyone heard any rumblings on what Swisher is expected to be worth this offseason?
As usual Spencer… you and I are the same page. I think we’ve even had this same discussion before. While I would still rather sign Bourn if at all possible, the next best solution would be moving Heyward to CF. The market for RF’ers this coming here is much better than CF’ers. And, Swisher would be an awesome fit.
Angel Pagan also has the best name of any center fielder this side of Coco Crisp.
One of my history buff friends who isn’t really into baseball saw Angel Pagan hit one time and decided that he is automatically the best baseball player ever.
People have raised the concern that this might put Heyward at higher risk for injuries. If true, I think that’s probably a sufficient reason to shop for a “true” center fielder, but no one has ever pointed me to any research either way on the injury risks associated with being a center fielder. Going off vague impressions, it doesn’t seem like the kind of position where you tend to expect a lot of injuries, like catcher.
I would also assume that those injuries are speed/baserunning related more often than not. Bourn hurt himself sliding, the same thing could happen to any player, but more likely to someone who is constantly trying to take bases.
The bad thing about Heyward to CF is that there is no backup plan, except maybe Reed Johnson. If someone were to flame out at a corner position, they would be easily replaceable. But we don’t have anyone with enough talent to occupy center everyday, unless Bourn is re-signed.
Swisher is interesting, but I think more pricey than Pagan. He has a high walk-rate, and his splits over the last 4 years are a little better versus Lefties. I am a little concerned he will get Jayson Werth money, and if that’s the case, no thank you. I am also not sold on the idea of playing Heyward in center. I can’t pretend to know how his skills translate to that position. Another option is Cody Ross, who mashes lefties but he has low OBP’s and plays average defense. I’m expecting him to get overpaid. Sigh.
If Todd Cunningham is ready anytime soon, you could have a nice platoon with him and Reed Johnson in right for pennies. Cunningham rakes against righties.
Cody Ross burned his bridge to Atlanta before signing with the Sox.
Swisher will certainly be more expensive than Pagan, but I would feel much better giving Swisher a 5 year deal, considering you aren’t paying for speed or a glove, necessarily. I like what Swisher will be worth in 4-5 years over most other alternatives. He’s making a little over $10mil/year now with the Yankees, but he is 31 and I’m not sure he will get that much on his next contract. If he does, I expect it to be somewhere right around the $10mil range, which I think is acceptable. I don’t think we’d go over something like 5/$55. But there’s probably some team out there willing to do 5/$75. It all depends on what Swisher wants to do, which unfortunately, I think is stay in NY.
And Cody Ross basically gave Atlanta a big middle finger this past offseason and took less money to play for Boston. Worked out well for him.
I don’t care what anyone says…I’m not putting money in Angel Pagan or Coco Crisp more than Michael Bourn…Pagan is having the definition of contract year.
Angel Pagan last 4 years:
2009 .350 .487 .837 3.8 WAR
2010 .340 .425 .765 5.1 WAR
2011 .322 .372 .694 1.0 WAR
2012 .339 .441 .780 4.0 WAR
So, unless “the definition of a contract year” to you is “right in line with his annual production”, your statement is egregiously false.
Ok ppl. I see no one has mention Denard Spahn. The twins will be willing to move him this off season due to that prospect they had behind him. He is a Bourne prototype. Just younger and more controllable and cheaper.
Can I get any thoughts on him if anyone has heard anything.
^ Span is 13 months and a few days younger than Bourn and has only been an everyday starter for 2 years, so he has less of a proven track record, but he does have injury history.
He’s also stated he’d switch positions if it meant he could stay in Minnesota (presumably a corner OF spot so Revere could take over in center). If the Braves were going to go after anyone from Minnesota, go after Revere or Willingham.
Jason. Thanks man. But tell me this, who could be a good replacement if Bourne does leave. We really need that type of player on the team.
Other options I’ve heard is fowler which I don’t see why they would want him and J. Ellsbury from Boston eventhough he is injury prone and old.
Also what about trading uggla to move prado back at 2nd, give Francisco the job at 3rd and go after a LF & CFer.
Uggla’s contract isn’t tradeable. A portion of it is dumpable, just like most every asset, but I don’t know that dumping it would help the team in any concrete way.
I have at least a little confidence that if we trade Bourn’s speed for a power bat, Simmons could handle the leadoff spot. Also, we don’t absolutely need top end speed in the lineup if we have good contact and power hitters throughout. The Yankees bat Jeter leadoff, and I think Prado could handle similar duties if Simmons doesn’t pan out at the top of the order.
Dexter Fowler would be a nice piece. Ellsbury is not even close to touchable. Apparently the Rockies are shopping Fowler and Cuddyer for pitching. Could you imagine a scenario where we trade for them both with a Hanson/Delgado/lower level pitcher deal? If Fowler pans out, it will be well worth Delgado. And Cuddyer would be our best bench bat in at least a few years.
If we could somehow land that trade from the Rockies, would it be wiser to just keep Cuddyer in left and move Prado to third? Or do you think it would be better to just let Francisco have the hot corner?
Also, didn’t you shoot down my idea of something involving a trade with Hanson and Fowler earlier?? I think what you/we proposed would really benefit both teams.
Hanson for Fowler is not even close to acceptable for the Rockies. Throw in a 22 year old, top of the organization prospect and it gets much more realistic. While Hanson for Fowler may work in MLB The Show, in real life you have to give something to get something. And Hanson is a lot of nothing at the moment. Someone on this blog put it best in terms of Tommy Hanson:
SO MUCH for potential or so much FOR potential.
I do agree to that…an additional prospect would be required…but if there is any team who would probably take Hanson at the moment, its the Rockies haha….what do you think about Cuddyer in left and prado at third?
Last year we started O’Ventbrel.
This year it’s been Heybournado!
Or Preybourn if you’re into the whole brevity thing.
Or Pournhey if you’re into the sexual nicknames.
Obviously, it’s heybournado
Sounds like the spiciest of all peppers.
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