What to Expect From Kyle Lohse In Wildcard Game
October 3, 2012 at 9:20 am by Ben Duronio under Atlanta Braves
If you follow my posts over at FanGraphs, I pick a pitcher a week to dissect and figure out why they have been successful or have struggled this year compared to years past. The matchup in the wildcard game is particularly interesting considering how surprising both pitchers have been this season. Nobody expected Kris Medlen to be the team’s best pitcher at the start of the year, and nobody expected Kyle Lohse to record a 2.86 ERA over 33 starts. After all, Lohse is just two years removed from posting a 6.55 ERA over 18 starts, so his transformation has been just as surprising as Medlen’s stellar season. Here is what we should expect on Friday from the Cardinal’s starting pitcher.
Traditionally, Lohse features a sinker heavy arsenal with his four-seam fastball used at roughly a 10% frequency, which is similar to Medlen. His sinker heavy approach has allowed him to limit walks at a tremendous rate, as his 4.4% walk rate ranks fifth in the majors. What he has done differently this season is increase the usage of his slider. Usually, the increased usage of a breaking ball would correlate with a higher walk rate, but Lohse has shown tremendous command with all of his pitches this season and posted a walk rate lower than he ever has in his career. As he has been able to maintain such a stellar walk rate, the increased usage of his breaking ball has allowed him to post a career high strikeout rate of 16.6%. Together, his 3.76 strikeout-to-walk ratio is significantly higher than his previous career high of 2.89. He has shown a great ability to pound the zone and create enough strikeouts to post a strikeout-to-walk ratio that is far above a respectable level.
One interesting note is that despite throwing his sinker at such a high rate, his 40% ground ball rate is not something to write home about. This is where I believe the Braves will have to take advantage. Since he is such a high contact hitter, they will have to get a hold of the sinker and put it in the air. Lohse has done a solid job of limiting home runs this season, and the game will be played in a slight pitcher’s ballpark, so pushing one out of the stadium will be difficult. Even so, if they can elevate his sinker slightly they could put balls into the gaps and rely on rallies to score their runs. Lohse is going to throw strikes, so being aggressive is likely the best way to attack the sinkerballer. Even though his strikeout rate is higher than usual, compared to the rest of the league it is not entirely impressive. The Braves will make contact, they just need to hope the ball lands where the fielders aren’t.
I expect this to be a pitcher’s duel, despite the Cardinal’s big bats and right-handed heavy lineup, which should slightly neutralize Kris Medlen’s changeup — though he does throw it to pitcher’s of both handedness. Lohse and Medlen are similar pitchers in that they avoid free passes, so this game will come down to who avoids hitting the ball to fielders the best. My money is on Medlen.
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Looks like we faced him one time year and got him for 5 hits (including 2 #jimmyjacks) and 5 runs in 5 innings pitched. Let’s hope for more of the same.
Does anyone know when we will find the time of the game? I am just guessing, but it would seem likely that it will be 4:30 or so.
It’s going to be a national broadcast, so there’s no way in hell it would be 4:30. I’m guessing 8 EST.
Either 6pm or 9:30pm EDT. (http://www.tbs.com/schedule/?selectedDate=10/5/2012&timeZone=0) It’s widely expected that the matchups will dictate which game gets which slot. E.g., if the Yankees were to manage to fall into the wild card game (which looks unlikely as of right now), the AL game would probably get the prime time (9:30) slot.
If we get an A’s at Orioles matchup, I would suspect that the AL game would be pushed to 6pm, just because neither team has an especially large fan base/media market, whereas St. Louis does have a large fan base. The Braves also have a fair amount of regional pull to add to the likely viewing numbers. This is all just speculation, of course, and hopefully we’ll know scheduling for sure by the end of today.
I’m also wondering how much of an effect the location of the game will play into that. If it’s in Oakland, then the time zone difference could actually allow for later start times.
Then again, if they have officially announced those two times, then I guess my previous statement is moot. I’m really hoping we get the prime time slot, otherwise I’ll miss an hour of the game :(
I realize this post in on Lohse but I wanted to add one quick thing on Medlen. He hasn’t exactly faced the strongest lineups this season. Here is the team wRC+ he has faced in his 12 starts
MIA (3) 87
NYM (3) 91
WSH (2) 101
SD (2) 97
COL (1) 93
HOU (1) 83
The Cardinals have one of the best offenses in the game, probably best in the NL (wRC+ 107). As Ben mentioned, very RH heavy which will neutralize his change up (his best pitch). I will be interesting to see how Medlen fares against a very strong lineup like the Cardinals.
As for Lohse, I said on my own personal blog I believe this game will go as the Braves offense goes. They roughed up Lohse earlier in the year, but as we know this team is very streaky. Hopefully they can hit stride tonight and carry it over to Friday.
I have irrational faith in Medlen. I could definitely see us winning a 2-0 decision.
I do as well, he’s been fabulous. Going to be a great pitchers duel.
If Med can locate his change down and to both sides he will do great…Maddux taught us that. Would I rather he threw it to lefties, yes…but I wouldn’t quite us the word neutralize. My weird fear was that we would run into a lefty in this game, we don’t, so ALL systems go.
I think the Braves will need to score 4 to win. As mentioned above Meds is venturing into new territory against the Cards. Strong RH lineup that not only neutalizes Meds slightly but also the Braves pen. Luckily the Cards pen is mostly garbage. The game is a toss up, nothing to do but hope for the best. But IMO if theBraves don’t get to at least 4 runs they won’t win.
I really don’t think a righty-heavy lineup is going to be Medlen’s undoing. The one above-average offense that Medlen has faced twice since joining the rotation is Washington. Washington has an extremely right-handed lineup; only two left-handed regulars, I believe. (Plus Espinosa, who is dreadful from the left side.) Medlen dominated them both times he faced them: combined 14.0 IP, 12 H (3 XBH), 1 R, 20 K (!), 2 BB.
Now, the Cards’ lineup is definitely better than the Nationals’, but it’s just to illustrate that Medlen has found ways to succeed against right-handed lineups with some power threats. Will he do it again Friday? I’ve got a good feeling.
To be clearer: Medlen has only faced one above-average offense, period, since joining the rotation. As it so happens, he has faced them twice.
Medlen has been lights out. I got a little fidgety watching the Mets hit him pretty hard Sunday but that was the third time they have seen him since he came back to the rotation. I’m just trying not to get too overconfident going in against a top 3 NL offense. I just don’t think the Braves will get by scoring only a couple of runs.
I’m sorry, but when you have Kimbrel and O’Flaherty (at some points Venters this season), nothing neutralizes the bullpen. You could take the best 9 hitters in MLB, line them up back to back and I’d bet on Craig and Eric to shut them down time and time again.
Medlen has been lights out. I got a little fidgety watching the Mets hit him pretty hard Sunday but that was the third time they have seen him since he came back to the rotation. I’m just trying not to get too overconfident going in against a top 3 NL offense. I just don’t think the Braves will get by scoring only a couple of runs.
Looking at the starts of Beachy/Medlen/Sheets combined. (only starting)they look like a Cy Young winner.
Name/W/L/ERA/GS/CG/ShO/WHIP/IP/SO
Kershaw/13/9/2.58/32/2/2/1.08/219.2/221
Dickey/20/6/2.67/33/5/3/1.10/232.2/230
Cueto/19/9/2.78/33/2/0/1.25/217/170
Gonzalez/21/8/2.89/32/2/1/1.17/199.1/207
Our Trio/18/9/1.94/33/3/2/1.00/213/185
They combine for 1 season worth of starts exactly with 33. They lead all of the Cy Young contenders in ERA & WHIP by a good margin. They are second in CG & ShO only to Dickey. Win Loss record is not the best or SO but they still were solid everywhere. They carried our team this year considering Hanson got basically 1/5 of the starts. Minor got 1/5 the starts and was bad for a half good for a half. Hudson got 1/5 of our starts and the combination of JJ/Delgado/Maholm got the other 1/5. We basically had one of these guys to ace our staff the whole season and we were very fortunate.
Name W L ERA G GS CG ShO IP/ST WHIP IP SO
Clayton Kershaw 13 9 2.58 32 32 2 2 6.9 1.08 219.2 221
R.A. Dickey 20 6 2.67 33 33 5 3 7.0 1.10 232.2 230
Johnny Cueto 19 9 2.78 33 33 2 0 6.6 1.25 217 170
Matt Cain 16 5 2.79 32 32 2 2 6.8 1.09 219.1 193
Kyle Lohse 16 3 2.86 33 33 0 0 6.4 1.11 211 143
Gio Gonzalez 21 8 2.89 32 32 2 1 6.2 1.17 199.1 207
Beachy/Medlen/Sheets 18 9 1.94 33 33 3 2 6.5 1.00 213 185
I’m trying to see if this looks better
Does this look better.
Name W L ERA G GS CG ShO IP/ST WHIP IP SO
Clayton Kershaw 13 9 2.58 32 32 2 2 6.9 1.08 219.2 221
R.A. Dickey 20 6 2.67 33 33 5 3 7.0 1.10 232.2 230
Johnny Cueto 19 9 2.78 33 33 2 0 6.6 1.25 217 170
Matt Cain 16 5 2.79 32 32 2 2 6.8 1.09 219.1 193
Kyle Lohse 16 3 2.86 33 33 0 0 6.4 1.11 211 143
Gio Gonzalez 21 8 2.89 32 32 2 1 6.2 1.17 199.1 207
Beachy/Medlen/Sheets 18 9 1.94 33 33 3 2 6.5 1.00 213 185
Try a few more times.
Just get the game to Kimbrel’s hands and it’s all over..
If I counted correctly, the Braves are 12-4 this season following an off day (or multiple off days). The Cardinals are 9-8.
Not to mention that the Braves are 48-33 at home, while the Cardinals are 38-43 on the road. And the Braves took 5 of 6 from the Cardinals this season.
I’m glad the game is not on a Monday.
I’ll second that.
please stop jinxing us! ;)
[...] compiling 211 IP with a 2.86 ERA and 3.51 FIP. Ben Duronio over at Capitol Avenue Club gave a great scouting report on what to expect from Lohse. Share this:TwitterFacebookEmailLike this:LikeBe the first to like [...]
I kinda like what Fredi did with the pitchers today, wonder how that would work in the play-in game?
Pitchers tend to be highly effective for 1-2 innings of work. I would normally be in favor of this, but it’s hard to imagine anything would be more effective than 6 innings of Medlen right now. In defense of such a scheme, you could come back and pitch Medlen in game 2 of the NLDS.
I like the idea if you don’t have a true “ace” like a Justin Verlander or a Felix Hernandez. Medlen’s been pitching like an ace though, so I’d go with him.
If there’s 6th or 7th inning trouble, don’t worry, Dr Disturbin will be there.
Can someone explain why luis avilan gets the W today?
Man, living in san diego, this sucks 2pm start time pacific, looks like a half day for me!
Let us not forget the cardinals spectacular run last year. One thing they never fall short on is coming up in the clutch. They have won 12 of their last sixteen games. I think it will be a great game but the cardinals will come out on top in the end.
What the hell kind of start time is 5pm?
Yeah that’s utter bullshit and I guess a result of having to get both games played on the same day, same network. I guess I’ll be watching the Gamecast at work then listening on the radio for the drive home.
Sucks……..
Yeah kinda wanted to watch with friends, but i guess i gotta miss about 30 minutes due to subway travel. Maybe I’ll spend 20 bucks on a cab to Brooklyn so I can catch the radio broadcast haha.
Ben,
I tried hitting David up about this, but what would you say tactics for the game are likely to be? Clearly we start Medlen and keep him in if he’s doing well, but why not treat the game with more of an AS game approach where we throw everything we can at them? I realize we need to have a plan to manage pitchers that is predicated on the of us winning the game, but what’s the harm in playing like there is no tomorrow?
I’m no Ben Duronio, but IMHO, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Meds getting pulled after the 5th or 6th unless he’s just clearly dominating. My guess is that by the 3rd time through the order, Fredi will be looking to bring in a fresh arm.
In talking with someone about this last night, I actually suggested backing up Medlen with Kimbrel. He’s faced 6 batters a few times this season and the change of pace between pitchers is highly likely to throw off their timing. I figure if we can get 6 out of Medlen then let Kimbrel throw 7 and 8, then we can play matchups for the 9th.
That would be awesome if I thought Fredi would actually do it. But at the same time, Kimbrel has been unreal at closing games, and I don’t think a one game playoff is the time for tinkering with roles. EOF will do just fine, I think. I’d follow Kimbrel with EOF and let him go a couple. If we have any kind of lead after 6, I think Medlen comes out. But if a situation calls for extinguishing in the 8th, I’m hoping Fredi will go directly to Kimbrel. THAT, I know he can do.
What’s the thought process on Ross v McCann behind the plate. I used an arbitrary number to compare the two’s performance and both are pretty much equally crappy from the plate in their last 100 ABs. Ross though has a ~.750 OPS to McCann’s ~.570 over that time period and .770 to .698 for the year. Ross’ slugging percentage gives him the advantage. McCann is 5/20 vs Lohse, Ross only 2 ABs, 1 hit. McCann’s right arm seems to be about to fall off, Ross’ doesn’t. Ross has a 44% CS rate, McCann 24%. The right decision seems obvious, but what do people think will happen?
McCann will get the start. No doubt. You have to remember, we have Frediot as our manager. I’m guessing…
Bourn CF
Prado LF
Heyward RF
Old Man 3B
Freeman 1B
McCann C
Uggs 2B
Simmons SS
Although, I actually think that with Uggs proficiency for drawing walks this year, he would be a better fit in the 8 hole and let Simmons hit 7th. That gives the higher average more meaningful at bats while still keeping OBP in front of the pitcher with an added luxury of power. Again, I doubt Fredi will think of that.
I also like the idea of Uggla clearing the bases with two outs before the pitcher bats.
By “clearing the bases” do you mean all the men on base go to the dugout because the scoreboard says “3 outs”?
As it turns out, it’ll be Ross behind the plate tomorrow.
If our hitters keep the patient approach they use to get starters out of the game quickly we will be fine. They don’t need to go in too hyped up and try to win the game with one swing.
When you talk about managing this game, it comes down to the core of pitchers that you trust being the only one’s given the ball. Who does that entail?
If Medlen does come out after 6 (hypothetically) with a tie game, or 1-2 run lead, how do you wrap the game up?
On my list of pitchers to trust is: Medlen, Kimbrel, O’Flaherty, and Venters/Avilan/Moylan (each trusted only with platoon splits). If you want to put Jonny V in the “completely trusted” category, fine.
So, if we have to cover the 7-9 innings, I am going matchups with Venters/Avilan/Moylan in the 7th, then, any lefty at the beginning (first two hitters) of the 8th with O’Flaherty, then going straight to Kimbrel. If the 8th starts with a couple of righties (or the switch hitting Beltran) I am going with Kimbrel to start the 8th. That is the bottom line. If we get beat with Craig Kimbrel on the mound, then you have to accept it. If we lose a 1 run lead in the 6th because Cory Gearrin or Chad Durbin give up a 2 run homer to Matt Holiday, then it would be much more difficult to swallow.
Who do you guys “trust” in this game?
Medlen and Kimbrel. That’s about it. Oh, and Fredi Gonzalez