Notes on Kris Medlen, Cardinals Offense and Facing Kyle Lohse
October 4, 2012 at 12:56 pm by David Lee under Atlanta Braves
When it comes down to it, all that really matters when attempting to analyze one game is the starting pitchers and maybe a couple relievers. A starting pitcher has a greater effect on a single game than anyone else unless it comes down to a high-leverage play late in the game, which is certainly possible considering these are two very good pitchers meeting.
But if you’re looking for the one big key to the game, look to see how hitters might fare against Kris Medlen and Kyle Lohse. Ben already did a great job letting you know what to expect from Lohse. One key for me:
“One interesting note is that despite throwing his sinker at such a high rate, his 40% ground ball rate is not something to write home about. This is where I believe the Braves will have to take advantage. Since he is such a high contact hitter, they will have to get a hold of the sinker and put it in the air. Lohse has done a solid job of limiting home runs this season, and the game will be played in a slight pitcher’s ballpark, so pushing one out of the stadium will be difficult. Even so, if they can elevate his sinker slightly they could put balls into the gaps and rely on rallies to score their runs. Lohse is going to throw strikes, so being aggressive is likely the best way to attack the sinkerballer. Even though his strikeout rate is higher than usual, compared to the rest of the league it is not entirely impressive. The Braves will make contact, they just need to hope the ball lands where the fielders aren’t.”
The key for Lohse is weak contact and control/command. He doesn’t have a great strikeout or ground ball rate, but he avoids walks and home runs and throws a solid chunk of innings. His BABIP the past two seasons has been .269 and .262, which should give a good idea of how he succeeds.
Beating a pitcher like Lohse requires an offense that doesn’t play into his game. As Ben said, being aggressive is probably the way to go. It allows the Braves to catch the occasional Lohse sinker left up, as well as avoiding counts where hitters would play into Lohse’s hands and have to pound a fastball into the ground. His walk rate means the Braves can’t wait on the free pass or even deep counts all the time.
The Cardinals offense has been one of the best and most consistent all season, ranking second in the league in total fWAR, third in wOBA and first in wRC+. They’re righty heavy in the middle of the lineup with Matt Holliday, Allen Craig and Yadier Molina, but pitchers also have to deal with Carlos Beltran and Jon Jay around them.
Medlen has actually fared better against left-handed batters because of the extreme success of his changeup, but the split is minor. His wOBA against RHB is .239 compared to .230 against LHB, and he has a 2% advantage in K% against LHB. Medlen induces far more ground balls against RHB because of his curveball, and in turn, he has allowed the majority of his home runs to RHB because of missed command (although five is hardly a large number).
Some Cardinal wOBA’s against RHP/LHP:
Molina – .359/.427
Holliday – .358/.431
Craig – .353/.427
Freese – .359/.380
Jay – .350/.315
Beltran – .350/.361
Carpenter – .362/.335 (340 PA)
The Cardinals’ average wOBA against RHP among its usual starters (or those with the most PA’s) is .355. The average against LHP is .385. Among RHB in the Cardinals lineup, the lowest wOBA against LHP is still higher than all against RHP except Carpenter’s in a smaller number of PA.
Regardless of the minor difference in Medlen’s numbers between RHB and LHB, the Cardinals thrive against LHP but are much more tolerable against RHP. This combined with the Braves facing a right-handed pitcher means two factors leaning in the Braves’ favor.
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I know you guys don’t like to make predictions, so I’m guessing we still won’t get any thoughts from you about how Fredi should manage the staff tomorrow.
But we do now have news that Fredi picked Ross to start over McCann. I’m shocked. Can’t even claim he chose the lefty against a right-handed pitcher. According to DOB on twitter, Fredi chose Ross because he gives the team the best chance to win one game, but that he’ll go with McCann in the NLDS if they win tomorrow. Not sure I understand the explanation, but I’m very surprised he didn’t just go with the “starter” in the win-or-go-home game.
He picked him because of David Ross’s defense and ability to throw out runners. That and he has caught most of the Medlens last few starts.
It’s pretty surprising that Fredi goes with Ross in this game. But I think it’s the right choice. BigMac has been lost at the plate this year, and Ross can certainly put up some good ABs, while also preventing runners from taking off.
I agree. And should the Braves move on, Mac having 3 days off before the start of the NLDS could help his nagging injuries.
First, did we get a new layout…or is my version of Chrome just being a bitch?
Second – Frediot is really starting Ross over McCann?!? I know McCann hasn’t been his usual self this year, but…wow. Did not see that one comin…
New layout, not Chrome being a bitch. Not going over very well thus far.
I think you’re as shocked as everyone. Not in that Ross is better offensively or anything, but just that Fredi had the balls to do. I completely agree with the decision because of McCann’s overall struggles and Ross’s significantly better defense. It’s long been said that speed can turn a game in the playoffs which is why guys like Bourn are so valuable. So, in turn, it’s smart to have a guy behind the plate that has a shot at throwing out that speed. I like the move.
If you look at the body of work for the season, and the defensive advantage Ross brings, this should have been an easy decision.
Should we read much into this McCann stuff? Thoughts on his $12M option for 2013?
My thought is that it’s still definitely going to get picked up. You don’t dump the best offensive performer at catcher over a five-year period because of one bad year.
Agree that his option will be picked up. Fangraphs said he was worth $9M so it’s not like he had that bad of a year. I have to think him not starting this one game elimination may hurt the chances of him signing a team friendly deal in the future. If I were a betting man I would say, that after next year, there is a good chance that Mac will be playing for another team.
I agree with Anon21, the Braves will not dump the best offensive catcher over one bad year. This is the first time McCann has faced significant injuries, and it is unfortunate he has struggled so much this year, but he has the work ethic to fix his problems and improve for next year.
ya know what scares me most about this game? Turner Field itself. The Braves have lost every single time they have played a post season elimination game in this stadium. Every time. 97 NLCS Game 6, 98 NLCS Game 6, 2000 NLDS Game 3, 2001 NLCS Game 5, 2002, 2003, and 2004 NLDS Game 5.
that just means we’re due for a win in an elimination game.
Don’t forget 2010 NLDS Game 4!
Does anyone know the recovery prognosis for shoulder surgery for non-pitchers? The only conceivable scenario of the team declining the option, I think, would be if McCann is projected to miss a substantial segment of next season. Even in that case, I would imagine that the team would quickly re-sign him at the market rate.
Guys I’m so nervous about this game!
It’s absolutely killing me every time I remember it isn’t until tomorrow. But I will be leaving work early and heading to The Ted to see it all go down. So at least there’s that. But these butterflies will probably persist until tomorrow at about 9 pm.
Adam Kilgore at the Washington Post says the Gnats would have a better chance against the Bravos. Good for extra motivation. I like the fact that the postseason road goes through last season’s WS winner, this season’s MLB wins leader, and the second half’s hottest team (possibly). FG and the boys will be truly tested. Time to go get em Braves.
And then hopefully through the (amazing) Oakland freakshow:
I know we are all thinking about something else right now, but before I forgot, I wanted to mention that I saw that even with all the crap we are giving him, Uggla has a 3.5 fWar season. ($15.9M)
Just thought it was interesting and was curious as an idea if you could do a player profile over the winter on each Brave, their year, remaining contract…I dont know. Anyone, just an idea.
Uggla hasn’t been nearly as bad as it seems, given he plays about average defense at 2B and walks a ton. When he was hitting 35 HR, he was an extremely valuable player. The contract is friendly enough, though, that he is about break-even this season.
“plays about average defense at 2B”
LOL
What’s the hold-up with announcing the roster? Do it already.
The official Fredi line was he couldn’t make up his mind on whether or not to carry 15 or 16 position players with JC Boscan as the last position player in. Why not? With two starters in the pen the pitching staff should have more than enough arms with 9 pitchers. With Boscan you could pinch run for Ross if necessary and still have a healthy catcher to enter the game. It also allows for using McCann as a PH and still having a catcher on the bench. If that 10th pitcher is needed to come into the game, either we’re already screwed or the game has lasted 25 innings.
Fredi doesn’t have to set it until 9am tomorrow morning. He’s still probably not even done. He did say he’s taking 9 pitchers and 16 position players.
I know this website is against “gut feelings” (fredi would love me), but hasn’t it seemed like we typically do best when we try to work counts and get batters to see 5-6 pitches per at bat? I understand being aggressive against lohse, but 6 pitch innings really do kill seem to kill the offense, and presumably wear away at our pitcher (not that it matters tomorrow).
I think that might be true for most offenses.