AFL Primer
October 9, 2012 at 1:08 pm by Ethan Purser under Prospects
Much to the joy of prospect lovers everywhere, the Arizona Fall League (AFL) kicks off its month-long schedule today. The Braves are represented by seven prospects on the Phoenix Desert Dogs, a team that also includes prospects from the Milwaukee Brewers, Miami Marlins, Tampa Bay Rays, and Oakland Athletics. Double-A Mississippi head coach Aaron Holbert will manage the Desert Dogs. I’ve compiled some quick primers on the prospects representing the Braves in Arizona. Note that Gus Schlosser was originally announced as a participant in the AFL, but he is not currently on Phoenix’s roster.
Ryan Buchter | Age: 25 | LHP: Buchter was acquired in the deal that sent Rodrigo Lopez to the Cubs in May of 2011. He put together a very impressive campaign for Mississippi, but fell flat on his face upon being promoted to Gwinnett. In 41.1 innings pitched at Mississippi, Buchter posted a 1.31 ERA/2.62 FIP with a 50/19 strikeout-to-walk ratio while only allowing 24 hits during this span. After being promoted to Gwinnett in early August, Buchter posted a 5/17 strikeout-to-walk ratio and allowed 10 hits in eight innings pitched. Although he has always been old for his league, Buchter showed real promise in 2012 despite the late-season downturn, and with a good showing at the AFL and in the spring, he could pitch his way into the bullpen picture very soon.
Cory Rasmus | Age: 24 | RHP: I sometimes have to remind myself that Cory Rasmus, younger brother of Colby, was a first-round pick in 2006. Rasmus has battled injuries and inconsistency throughout his minor league career, but has set himself up for some modest success after a fair season out of the bullpen for Mississippi. In 58.2 innings pitched, Rasmus posted a 3.68 ERA/3.49 FIP with a 62/32 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Rasmus is an extreme fly-ball pitcher, as evidenced by a 0.80 GO/AO this season. The AFL is notoriously hitter-friendly, so Rasmus’s extreme fly-ball rate could rear its ugly head in the form of home runs while in Arizona.
Chris Jones | Age: 23 | LHP: Acquired in the “good trade—who’d we get?” deal that sent Derek Lowe to the Cleveland Indians, Jones performed well in his first season with the organization. In 60 innings at Double-A Mississippi, Jones posted a 3.90 ERA/2.38 FIP with a 61/19 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Jones further solidified his reputation as a future LOOGY, posting massive L/R splits over the course of the season. He will head to Arizona in hopes of impressing club officials and could be a cheap bullpen option as early as next season.
Zeke Spruill | Age: 23 | RHP: Spruill enjoyed a successful 2012 campaign, posting a 3.63 ERA/3.51 FIP with a 106/46 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 161.2 innings pitched at Double-A Mississippi. Spruill did a fine job of keeping the ball on the ground, evidenced by a 1.44 GO/AO. Of the pitchers going to the AFL from the Braves, Spruill has the highest ceiling—a solid, back-of-the-rotation workhorse who can keep the ball on the ground and induce weak contact. Although his path to Atlanta is unclear, Spruill is a great prospect and garners lots of attention in trade talks.
Matt Kennelly | Age: 23 | C: Of the position players representing the Braves in the AFL, Kennelly is likely the least known of the group. He was signed out of Australia in 2005 and has made slow progress as a prospect. In Double-A Mississippi, Kennelly hit .254/.339/.345 with one home run and a 21/26 walk-to-strikeout ratio in 224 plate appearances while serving as Christian Bethancourt’s primary backup. Kennelly is not much of a prospect and more than likely occupies the spot that Bethancourt would have filled had it not been for his wrist injury late in the season. We will keep an eye on him as the AFL season progresses, but expectations are not high. He is undoubtedly behind both Max Stassi (OAK) and Jacob Realmuto (MIA) on Phoenix’s depth chart.
Edward Salcedo | Age: 21 | 3B: Salcedo, the Braves’ top international signing in 2010, hit .240/.295/.412 with 14 home runs and a 33/130 walk-to-strikeout ratio at High-A Lynchburg. He committed 42 errors in 386 chances at third base. Salcedo continues to be a frustrating prospect on both sides of the ball, but he remains one of the highest-ceiling bats in the system. By sending Salcedo to the AFL, the Braves show their continued faith in the prospect. He seems to have wore down significantly as the second half progressed, so his performance against some of the top pitching prospects in the game will be interesting to monitor.
Nick Ahmed | Age: 22 | SS: Ahmed, drafted out of the University of Connecticut in the second round of the 2011 draft, fared well in his first full season, hitting .269/.337/.391 with six home runs and a 49/102 walk-to-strikeout ratio at High-A Lynchburg. He also stole 40 bases while only being caught 10 times. Ahmed will split playing time at shortstop with Tim Beckham (Rays), Hak-Ju Lee (Rays), and presumably Grant Green (OAK). Ahmed has garnered quite a bit of hype from club officials and the media this season. A good showing in Arizona could shoot him up prospect lists later this winter.
Five other prospects to watch on the Desert Dogs: Christian Yelich, OF, MIA (Yelich possesses one of the most drool-inducing swings in the minor leagues); Richie Shaffer, IF, TB; Miles Head, IF, OAK; Johnny Hellweg, RHP, MIL; Jimmy Nelson, RHP, MIL.
*Oh, I almost forgot—infield fly rule, you guys.
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I would question the IFR here but it is a judgement call so I can’t.
the infield fly rule is a judgement call… seeing that Ethan has the call on what we do and do not include on this particular post on CAC, i cannot argue or protest his judgement as to include or not include said joke into his post because it is his judgement call to make and all other members of the CAC team must agree that it is the correct call to make.
Knowing the CAC’s love for baseball, alcohol, and humor, it all comes together here.
http://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/561974_290181064416097_950764503_n.jpg
There weren’t enough of those that I could’ve drank last Friday to numb me to the fact that the shitty Cardinals beat out the Braves for the second year in a row.
Can we please spell it correctly? It’s judgment. Only 1 “e” in the word. If there’s any positive to take from that terrible game Friday, it should be that everyone is made aware of how to spell this damn word.
Fuck off
people tend to have disagree when it comes to the word it has gone different ways throughout history “judgment” and “judgement” are both widely excepted and interchangeable.
for reference and a very boring read
http://www.dailywritingtips.com/judgement-or-judgment/
Um… no. It is a word that is accepted as correctly spelled with or without the extra “e.”
Get your facts straight before trying to be a smartass.
In the US, it’s ‘judgment’. In the rest of the English-speaking world, it’s ‘judgement’.
It’s not that hard.
In the Bible it is Judgement so fuck off
33/130?? Please tell me that’s a typo… right?? RIGHT?
Unfortunately not, Salcedo had a pretty disgusting second half.
Apart from Salcedo, Ahmed, and Spruill– this list looks pretty underwhelming.
Anyone have thoughts on who should have been included from the Braves but were not? Are there particular reasons players like Cunningham, Beckwith, and Gattis– who could use as much experience as possible, were not included?
shred the gnar,
I think Jones has a legitimate shot at being a LOOGY. No joke, he almost steps behind a LHB when he throws the ball—it’s absurd. He’s got a decent breaking ball and he can locate. He may look underwhelming, but I’d venture to say that he’ll make it to the majors.
As far as the others who weren’t sent to the AFL—I had a hunch that Alex Wood would be sent there, but he was over his career high in innings by a good bit, so he was just sent to instructs. Cunningham was in the AFL last fall, but that did not preclude him from being sent there this year. There’s a rule about how many players a team can send below the AA level, but it’s escaping me at the moment. This may be why Beckwith was not included. Gattis is playing in the Venezuelan Winter League with the Aguilas de Zulia.
Thanks Ethan, I am largely unfamiliar with the formalities and selection procedures of the AFL.
LET’S GO AGUILAS DE ZULIA!
Freeman Delgado/Tehran to Angels for Trumbo and Hank Conger
Uggla and Lipka to Seattle for Figgins and Player to be named later
Move McCann to 3rd Prado back to 2nd and Figgins to Leftfield
Pastornicky Gilmartin and Salcedo to Marlins Bonifacio and Greg Dobbs
Teach Hanson how to throw an out pitch like a circle change or splitter to go along with that curve
Lineup for 2013
Figgins LF
Bonifacio CF
Prado 2nd
Heyward RF
Trumbo 1st
McCann 3rd
Simmons SS
Conger/Bethancourt/Ross Catcher
high? or drunk?
wat
Bobby Cerasuolo,
Thanks for the input, but . . . no. That would not be wise.
This is awful for so many reasons. Why would we ever trade for Chone Figgins?
Because he has the best name in baseball and he used to be good. But maybe we should trade for players who are still good or might be good in the future.
Don’t worry guys, this Booby C fellow has been crapping out the worst trade ideas for years–on this blog and elsewhere–that would make MLB The Show make fart sounds.
Might as well just call up Jurr Maddock and trade for Mac Kemp.
I now refer to the infield fly rule as the outfield fly rule.
What happens if the infield fly rule is called but the ball then lands on the other side of the fence (sometimes referred to as a “home run”)? I would assume the batter is out but the runners may advance until they either score or smack into a massive cheese-filled stationary object (sometimes referred to as an “umpire”).
I don’t think that’s cheese in there.
Oh– dick cheese is still cheese.
Great stuff as always Ethan. Salcedo is really becoming frustrating, especially the on base numbers. Hopefully the AFL will allow him to give hope and trend in the right direction heading into next season.
From MLBTR.com…
“Wren confirmed that the entire coaching staff will be offered the opportunity to return to the team.”
Fuck…
double fuck,
the infield fly rule call is making us overlook the stupidity of the equally awful decision to safety squeeze Simmons with flat foot freeman at 3rd.
I have often defended frank wren for constructing a roster on limited finances but it might be the he is the dumbass that keeps letting frediot get away with these decisions.
Maybe I’m or just tardy to the party (probably) or an idiot (definitely), but aside from being Bobby’s preferred choice, what qualifications does Fredi have to be a major league coach? Especially after he’s made the mistakes that he’s made, why should he get a third year with this club?
I mean, I know that it could be worse than Fredi, but it could also be a lot better.
okay Fredi is one of the five worst managers, and firing him would probably piss bobby off since he felt like he had to chime in when the Marlins let him go after three dismal seasons.
So maybe Wren is just waiting to miss the playoffs for three years in a row, or liberty doesn’t want to pay two managers at the same time?
I suppose it all doesn’t really matter when a season ends with a game like that.
Man… Manny Acta and Jim Tracy on the market.. and even Tito was available. Fuck!
No kidding. I’ve been saying for years that Manny Acta is a good manager; he just wasn’t given anything to work with in Cleveland. I really wish the Braves would get rid of Fredi aka Bozo the Clown and replace him with Acta.
I honestly believe that since our glory days and the new ownership taking over, the organization is no longer set on winning the World Series. It seems like we have just enough financial flexibility to put together a good, playoff caliber team, but not a World Series team. So, if that is true (speculation obviously) then this season is actually a success because of making the playoffs (even if for one game). And, it’s quite possible that last season could be considered one in that we only missed on the last day.
Again, if all that’s true, then why would Wren and Co. fire Fredi? He’s been a “success” in their eyes…..
I don’t think much is different, except the farm system’s pitching development is much better now. How were the “glory days” any different? Winning one World Series while winning the division 13 straight times? That’s just pathetic.
The problem with Fredi is that he doesn’t know whether to be like Bobby or be a modern manager. Bobby could make stupid traditional moves, but he was always effective because of his amazing personality. I don’t see this with Fredi. And unfortunately the Bravos are traditionalists who are obviously not going to see Fredi not using advanced stats to at least influence every decision is not necessarily going to be seen as a fault. I think it’s probably more Scheurholz’s influence than Wren. Big Frank has proven that he’s an incredibly intelligent baseball man. JS is as well obviously, but re: traditionalist. Wren showed that he wasn’t afraid of taking off the gloves when dealing with disgruntled veterans who were beyond their time (Smoltz and Glavine). Though anyone with half a brain would be upset about the squeeze call. ESPECIALLY with a rookie at bat who had a hit in his previous at bat.
Is there any realistic way a group of people could express their disapproval of Fredi to the organization with evidence of why? He doesn’t deserve to manage this team. I’m sure Chipper would have liked to spend his last seasons under a manager that knew baseball as well as he does. There’s obviously no way you can measure manager WAR, but you can’t tell me he cost us any fewer than 3 games in 2012. I don’t know that there was ever a time he made a decision that won us the game, other than maybe bringing in Kimbrel in the 8th. The young guys need to learn from someone with more knowledge. And the old guys deserve to go out under honorable supervision. Huddy, in particular, now comes to mind. I don’t anticipate that anything could be done, but ANYTHING to show that there are people (who know what they’re talking about)that strongly disapprove of the job Fredi is doing. He has become the laughing stock of the MLB, besides maybe Ozzie Guillen. There’s no way FW is blind to that.
Also, since there’s no place else to talk about this, Jacoby Ellsbury is being tossed around it seems. Saw a thing that says Texas may offer Derek Holland for Ellsbury. I would have to think that if Holland would work, Minor and a prospect would work as well. The only problem is, we may have trouble filling Minor’s spot with anyone other than Hanson. But the Sox are desperate for pitching and I would rather not pay Bourn as much as he will get. Ellsbury is making a little over $8mil and becomes a FA at the end of the 2013 season. That would mean that financially, we’re paying 2012 Bourn money and getting an MVP/60 day DL type player. But, again I think it’s only if Delgado/Teheran show us something before the deal is made.
Ellsbury was awful last season and is an injury risk. You want to trade our third best pitcher for him? PLUS another prospect? I wouldn’t trade Minor for two Ellsburys.
And as much as I dislike Fredi, he is hardly the “laughing stock of the MLB.” And I disagree about that tag as applied to Ozzie as well. His players are obviously behind him 100%, as shown by the hilarious shaming of Heath Bell. It could always be worse; we could’ve gotten Bobby V.
He also finished second in MVP voting the year before his injured season. Obviously it’s a risk. If you think we could get him for less, I think it’s worth a shot.
And maybe laughing stock wasn’t the right word choice. But people who know baseball know that he is a bad manager. Basically, if you know enough to know he’s the Braves’ manager, you know he’s not a good one. I’m a big fan of Ozzie’s. But having a year like Miami had, and publicly calling out players (Bobby V as well) is not going to go over well. Chipper, and other players, but notably Chipper, have been seen doing some head shaking and obvious nay saying of the things Fredi does. If I’ve seen it, surely the organization has seen it. Unfortunately, he has been given a team that’s good enough to make him look alright. But give the Braves a respectable manager and I think they become much better.
I kinda agree with you on both points, but I just don’t think Minor is worth Ellsbury at this point. I think he’s obviously worth 2011 Ellsbury, but with question marks at 2B, SS, C, LF/3B I would prefer not to take the risk.
Did you read where the Marlins sat a radio next to Heath Bell in the clubhouse and turned the volume all the way up so he had to hear Ozzie addressing his comments on a radio show. It was one of the great shaming moments i baseball. Also, Heath Bell on the mound looks like Kimbrel + 80 lbs.
http://www.billjamesonline.com/who_are_the_fielding_bible_award__gold_glove_contenders_part_2/
All three Braves OFers are ‘favorites’ to win the NL gold Glove for their respective positions. If that happens, will it be the first time an entire OF has won a GG?
Did they finally break it down to separate gold gloves for RF, LF, and CF instead of just having the stupid “OF” category that three CFs always win?
Man, good thing MLB threw in the extra WC playoff game this season! These NLDS series sure are boring!!!!
Oh wait…….
And that one game playoff really hurt the wildcard teams! If not for their bullpen, the O’s could have swept the Yanks last night. And the shitbag Cards could take out the Nats today. But the thing that really is the dumbest aspect of the new playoff system is the team with the best record plays the wild card team no matter what. The win differential wasn’t glaring this year, but you could potentially have a 105 win team playing a 100 win team, while the no 2 and 3 seeds have 85 wins apiece. And though the Giants and A’s have shown how important–or not–home field advantage is, starting with 2 games on the road for the “advantaged” team is really dumb.
I think in the age of free agency and unbalanced and unfair market systems, basketball really has the best system. Have you divisions, but they’re just regional matchups where you see certain teams more than others–basically the unbalanced schedule currently used–but teams make the postseason based on their overall record within the league. If there’s going to be more than 1 “wild card” team, then there should be more than 2. You have 6 teams from each league going to the playoffs, with the division winners getting home field advantage, just to keep the divisions somewhat relevant.
Of course this all depends on how important you see the division system. I think it made a ton of sense before free agency, and.. travelling by airplane. I always thought it was cool that the Braves almost regularly have a few regional stars, but that’s mostly novelty. Divisons make no more sense anymore.
Was at the AFL game today in Peoria…man, Salcedo looked terrible at the plate. Struck out 3 times and looked awful doing it..a couple check-swing-strike-threes and he was just hacking at everything before that.
Rasmus pitched an inning and his breaking stuff looked nasty next to his fastball. His control did seem off at first and he did give up a run, but if he can harness some of that, I’d be excited to see what he could bring to the big league club.
This is all based on a very untrained scout’s eye, btw.
Im glad you brought up the discussion on unbalanced schedule. In theory the play-in game with two WCs accomplishes the stated goal…making it tougher for the WC team to make it to WS and benefitting division winners. The problem is the unbalanced schedule! Atlanta had the same record as the division winning giants, and played in most difficult division. One game playoff is not fair when teams play games against unequal competition
Gotta feel for the As, I was really hoping they’d go all the way. At least Baltimore is still in it, hopefully they’ll fist the Yankees tonight.
Also, the infield fly rule still blows.
I saw Salcedo play Thursday at an AFL game in Peoria. He had 2 Ks (each time took two strikes and waved at strike 3) and 2 grounders, one a double play. He didn’t make any hard contact. Seemed over matched. Made good stops at 3b. On two ground balls he didn’t look very quick going to 1st.
I’ll watch him some more and report.