10/30 Odds & Ends: Option Decisions, Ross’ Return, Heyward Sweeps Defense Awards
October 30, 2012 at 10:31 pm by David Lee under Atlanta Braves
Offseason Moves
The Braves announced they exercised the options of Brian McCann ($12 million), Tim Hudson ($9) and Paul Maholm ($6.5). All three are no-brainers, and the only question that remains from this group is who is left after next season. Check our thoughts on McCann’s future. I mentioned Hudson’s future briefly here.
The Braves have made it known they want David Ross back. Ross previously made it known he wants to return. I expect this to go smoothly. Ross has said in the past he prefers a backup role because of the toll his body takes while playing over long stretches. Also, he’ll be 36 in March, and giving him a starting job on a multi-year deal at this point isn’t smart.
Chris Haft of MLB.com says “(Angel Pagan is) expected to command in excess of $10 million annually on a multiyear contract. The Giants must decide whether Pagan is truly worth that figure or if they can live with overpaying him.”
When Pagan has actually played an entire season, he has been good for 4-5 wins, even when UZR gives him average defense. He has been around average defensively in center field for his career, but his bat has largely made up for it by producing a career .329 wOBA and 104 wRC+. The 31-year-old is a speed player with an average walk rate, so giving him a long-term contract might not be in the Braves’ best interest. But he remains one of the best center field options out there.
Other Links
Rob Neyer of SB Nation chooses Kris Medlen as his Braves player of the year. There’s no denying Medlen’s success as a starter down the stretch, as well as his role as a reliever for much of the season. Getting a 1.57 ERA and 2.42 FIP with 3.9 fWAR from a guy who made just 12 starts is solid.
However, for all Medlen did to boost the pitching staff down the stretch, it’s also tough to deny Jason Heyward’s 6.6 fWAR, hitting 27 home runs with 21 stolen bases, and a .351 wOBA and 120 wRC+. If Medlen had done what he did, or even close to it, for an entire season, sure, give him the honor (not his fault but that doesn’t change anything). But Heyward amassed his totals over an entire season and was neck-and-neck with Chipper Jones in wOBA while playing in 158 games. When a player does what Heyward did this season, he’s usually the team’s best player.
Heyward was named the winner of the 2012 Fielding Bible Award for right field. “The youth movement continued in right field with first-time winner Jason Heyward. Heyward secured 96 points to top Josh Reddick, who had 84. Reddick actually saved more runs defensively for his team than did Heyward, 22 runs saved to 20, but Heyward’s excellent range and his third straight season of great defensive play earned him a well-deserved award.”
Heyward was also named a Gold Glove winner Tuesday night, giving him a sweep of the defensive awards. It’s the first of what should be many in Heyward’s career.
Martin Prado and Michael Bourn were both up for Gold Glove awards, but the voters chose lesser defenders based probably on their names and hitting ability. Freddie Freeman was also a finalist at first base but lost to Adam LaRoche.
Around the NL East
Adam Kilgore of The Washington Post digs into the new compensatory system and how it affects the Nationals’ dealings with Edwin Jackson and Adam LaRoche.
The Phillies exercised the $5 million option for Carlos Ruiz. The catcher, who will turn 34 in January, hit .325/.394/.540 with a .398 wOBA in 421 plate appearances this past season. His 5.5 fWAR was a career high. While he’s almost certain not to repeat those numbers in 2013, he remains both a solid bat and glove behind the plate and will be underpaid at $5 million.
Bill Baer of Crashburn Alley looks at Ruiz’s future in Philadelphia.
The Phillies declined the $5.5 million mutual option for Placido Polanco, buying out his contract for $1 million and letting him walk. Polanco played in only 90 games with 328 plate appearances in 2012 due to a host of injuries, including two trips to the disabled list for lower back inflammation. He’ll be 37 years old for the 2013 season.
The Phillies also declined options on Ty Wigginton and Jose Contreras, both receiving $500K buyouts.
The Mets picked up the options of David Wright ($16 million) and R.A. Dickey ($5), both of which were no-brainers. New York has much to discuss this offseason and in 2013 regarding the futures of both players.
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I am really surprised Bourn didn’t win the gold glove. I really thought he was a lock.
Wow, five bucks for R.A. Dickey really is a no-brainer. Good thing MLB worked out that minimum-wage exemption to go with the antitrust exemption.
what do you guys think about trading for choo at LF, he said he would want to go to a market with large korean population and atlanta certainly fits that. Plus for a Boras client I don’t think he would be terribly expensive
Choo had a 78 wRC+ against LHP last year. Naw thanks.
I miss baseball.
The Fielding Bible, when giving out it’s reward, said this about Heyward:
“In each of the last three years he has made between 30 and 40 more plays than an average right fielder would have made. All those extra plays more than make up for what is a slightly below average throwing arm for a right fielder.”
I have always thought Heyward had a cannon for an arm that had not pinpoint, but very good accuracy.
What makes them say that his arm is below average?
That he didn’t have that many assists? That tally in itself is useless because if you have a very good arm, no one is going to want to test it and you won’t have the chance to throw them out…
Heyward did have 11 outfield assists Alex, which tied him for 1st in the category for NL right fielders.
It’s kinda absurd to me that Bourn didn’t win in center when he was so much better than Cutch in every metric, and what might be more egregious is Prado being snubbed even though he was far better at defensive runs saved than CarGo. I assume the 1 error for the year is all anyone looked at for Cutch, and obviously nobody looked at the fact that CarGo GAVE UP 8 more runs than a replacement level player.
Honestly should have been a clean sweep for the Atlanta outfield.
Exactly,it’s beyond absurd how this league is a name-driven league and how slow some are to looking at advanced metrics.
Anxious to see how CF plays out. If Bourn signs elsewhere, and Pagan really does want $10M, I could see the Braves making a trade with the pitching-hungry Twins for either Denard Span or Ben Revere.
Rockies are also just as pitching hungry. Coors Field may have given Dexter Fowler a little too big of a market though..
Johnny Gomes, Bryan LaHair, and Craig Gentry
Rob Neyer actually named Kris Medlen as the most Braves player of the year. It’s a slightly different award. I think merited, although Chipper has a good case. They both had amazing seasons but didn’t carry it through to the playoff game.
Medlen was more a perfect example of the 2012 Braves, though Chipper exemplifies the Braves for the past 20 years. Annually brilliant, exciting, injury prone, and end on sour notes.
That being said, I’m really looking forward to a long time of Medlen, Beachy, Minor and possibly Teheran in what could be the best rotation in the NL since Maddux left town.
My gut tells me that the market for Pagan will get a little crazy, and whoever gets him will overpay. And if someone like the Giants or Phillies overpay him, you can rest assured that number is way out of our price range.
Someone in the Revere, Span, Bourjos price range is more likely. I think Bourjos is a reasonable gamble. The trade bait either of these would not be awfully expensive, and we would have money left over to afford a LFer.
I agree 100% with you. I would love to see a trade for Revere or Bourjos. Go with D in CF and spend the cash on an LFer who can hit. With that OF, Prado at 3B, and Simmons at SS for the year the Braves D will be outstanding. Plus if done right the Braves will be built to win for 3-4 years even at $100M payroll.
I think the Braves should go after Victorino, switch hitter, hard nosed guy that Atlanta fans would enjoy. Maybe a trade for Willingham from Twins for whatever pitchers for LF. Good line-up with 1)Victorino Switch hitter CF 2)Prado R 3rd 3)Heyward L RF 4)Willingham R LF 5)Freeman L 1st 6)Uggla R 2nd 7)McCann L C 8)Simmons R SS 9)Pitcher.
The Braves have almost 9 WAR to replace with Chipper retiring and Bourn likely leaving. Hard to imagine how the FO could manage to replace the production if they go with a defensive minded CF.
I’ll give it a shot. Revere or Bourjos should be worth about 3.5 WAR. Swisher or Hunter in LF should be worth 3.5-4 WAR. Mike Minor should be worth at least 1 additional WAR next year then this year. That’s 8WAR and under budget. Then you get the benefit of Prado at 3B, hopefully better pinch hitting (one of the worst in the league last year), and Simmons at SS for the whole year. All of those factors could add up to 9 WAR. Not to mention Bourn was only worth 6+ WAR one year (last year) in his entire career so he most likely will regress to norm next year.
Trout didn’t even win a Gold Glove, so that shows just how much of a sham they can be.
I think CF is going to be very tricky. I think Bourn, Pagan, and Victorino will all be overpaid by someone with Upton being paid just as much or more. The only reason I think Upton won’t be overpaid is because of his age.
I’m praying for some type of deal for both Revere and Willingham.
If any Twins player is getting traded it’s going to be Span and maybe Morneau, but most likely just Span.
There is only one Brave who put up a season of numbers unlike the game has ever seen, and that is Craig Kimbrel. If that does not make you MVP for the year I have difficulty defining what does. I like Craig Kimbrel (probably my favorite player) and Jason Heyward, but did they produce metrics that were close to the best the game has ever seen for their role on the team? Where do you reward that kind of season if it is not with an MVP.
To clarify, I don’t mean league MVP, was referring to Rob Neyer’s Braves Player of the year designation/award, probably shouldn’t use the term MVP so loosely or without defining. Apologies
You should actually read Neyer’s article. David erroneously stated that RN picked Medlen as the “MVP.” He picks a player from each team that best represented their season.
I did actually read the article, and enjoyed it. It’s all good baseball stuff, just depends on how you want to loosely define “POTY” status and he can certainly define any way he wants, I just would have chosen differently. Medlen and Chipper’s years were certainly memorable, as well as Jason and Martin along with the bullpen in general.
Ludwick would look good in LF, next to Bourn
Ludwick scares me…… one year he hits, the next he’s Frenchy….. his glove is pretty mehh too(not that this is as important in LF).
I tend to think he’s a shoe in to return to the Reds.There’s mutual interest and i think they get it dome.
I think the Braves will end up with a leadoff type CF’er via trade and will try really hard to sign Nick Swisher.
I wouldn’t mind going for Pagan and Tori Hunter, but that’s kinda risky….
Frankly, it’s really hard to decipher what’s gonna happen this year. for all we know, Wren is talking to the Padres about Headley….
Braves just acquired Jordan Schafer off of waivers. Circle of Life.
Who would have guessed this would be the first acquistion of free agency?
The Braves announced that they claimed outfielder Jordan Schafer off of waivers from the Astros.
Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/#QpdcUXjTrvtABF4L.99
He will probably just get a shot at the 5th OF’er job IF they re-sign Reed Johnson. I seriously doubt he’s in the mix to start. (not to mention the teams upper level OF depth is startingly bad)
I dont see a problem with getting players that give 3-4 WAR for CF and LF or 3B. With the money we save, we buy out the ARB years of our players and create a team that will have low turnover over the next few years. I don’t see a need to go out on a limb to buy back more WAR, especially in the new environment of 2 wildcard teams. Even with a Replacement level CF and LF(think Georgie or Schaefer) we still have a good shot at the playoffs next year (god forbid that happens) with the boost our starting pitching gets.
I know we hate it, and we want big names, but honestly, I think the best thing the Braves can do with their limited resources is get slightly above average guys in LF/3B and CF and start buying out ARB years. Let’s have a Year over Year contender, these new Braves can not afford another Derek Lowe deal.
I see your point, though I doubt that’s what happens. CF is likely to come from this pool (Pagan,Upton,Victorino,Bourjos,Span,Parra and Revere) LF is likely to come from this pool(Ludwick,Hunter,Choo,Upton,Kubel,Willingham and Swisher)
I’m prolly leaving one or two off per list, but I think that with the $20+ mill available Wren is going to fill those 2 spots with solid talent. Combine this with an entire year of Simmons and any improvement from Uggla,Heyward,Freeman and Max, this team has 95+ win capability.
Mac, not Max, sorry
My money is on getting one of those CFs on everyone’s list and the signing someone like Gomes to platoon with Prado against a lefty, while the majority of time at 3B is occupied by Juan Francisco. Atlanta fans are usually put off by a platoon structure, but that’s because we usually utilized it with two crappy players trying to form one decent player. Gomes absolutely crushes lefties, and Francisco crushes righties.
Gomes fielding ability is best compared to Adam Dunn. yeah, it’s that bad. I wouldn’t mind Gomes as a bench bat against lefties, but he’s sure to get a DH spot somewhere.
Am I dumb thinking Kelly Johnson could play LF in a platoon role with Reed Johnson? He could also give Dan Uggla a breather at 2nd.
Ya know, if the team had $8 mill to spend to fill both OF spots, I would understand the platoon talk. But they have over $20 mill to spend. No way they go that route , not unless there’s some high dollar pitcher heading this way I haven’t heard about.
Yeah but you have to think about extending Prado, potentially buying out some of our young guys’ arb years, etc. I know what you mean but I think the team doesn’t have to go big in free agency to fill the outfield, when we have someone like Francisco who could turn out to be very good at 3B if he takes his offeseason conditioning seriously. And I know what you mean with Gomes’ shitty defense, but having below average defense in LF in less than half the games is something we can live with while having above average fielding in center and right.
Francisco is never gonna hit lefties, isn’t magically going to discover contact by losing weight nor going to go from butcher to gold glover. He’s a bench bat who can fill in. Maybe on a rebuilding team he starts. but not on the Braves.
Here’s the problem.
Gomes is 99% gonna DH somewhere, it’s all he’s good at, and every year some team needs him. (heck the Astros are a good fit).
I’m not saying Wren has to wow the fans with two big high profile names, but he needs to maximize his value.
Trade for Span/Revere/Bourjos then go grab Swisher or Tori Hunter, or trade for Choo or Jason Kubel and sign Victorino for CF (not that I am supporting any of these just listing examples)
we have to replace close to 10WAR with Chipper and Bourn gone. We can afford to go with a 2-3 WAR defender in CF IF we counter with a 4-5WAR player for left. (I think having Simmons,Medlen and Maholm for an entire year will make up the rest, not counting Uggla,Mac improvements).
Sticking two 1.5-2 WAR players in our OF spots will make the team pretty mediocre IMO.