The Wren Way: Building a Bullpen
November 6, 2012 at 2:06 pm by David Lee under Atlanta Braves
Frank Wren became general manager of the Braves in 2008. He inherited a team that was two years removed from its 14 straight division titles and was a combined 163-161 after the streak ended. The mediocre teams he inherited had taken a hit both in the farm system (to keep the streak alive) and in the payroll. (Teams were beginning to leapfrog the stagnant Braves payroll.)
Luckily for the entire organization, Wren is very good at producing a competitive team with a limited amount of spending money. And a major part of that is knowing how to field a solid bullpen cheaply.
In 2008, Wren pieced together a bullpen that made $5,395,000 among its top five members (determined by numbers, not money). Those five combined on a 4.10 ERA and 4.08 FIP. They were hit with injuries, as Mike Gonzalez returned from Tommy John surgery to throw 33.2 innings late in the season, and Rafael Soriano threw just 14 innings due to a host of right elbow issues that led to an eventual surgery.
That year, the Braves were a bit top heavy spending-wise in the bullpen. Soriano made the most at $2.5 million, Gonzalez made $2.3 million and Will Ohman made $1.6 million. (If you include Soriano in the top five, it’s $7,895,000 total.) Wren did not sign Ohman to that deal, however, as he was given a two-year contract by the Cubs and Wren acquired him for that price in one of his first moves as general manager.
In 2009, Wren received full years from Gonzalez and Soriano to make their contracts a little more worthwhile, and the top five relievers made a combined $11,010,000. The highest paid was Soriano at $6.35 million. The top five combined for a 2.94 ERA and 3.06 FIP.
The bullpen remained top heavy contract-wise in 2009, but 3-5 were more effective while making around the minimum. Thus, the beginning of how Wren pieces together effective bullpens.
In 2010, the top five relievers made $11,940,000. Wren stepped out of his zone a little by signing Billy Wagner to a one-year deal worth $6.75 million, giving him one last hurrah while still producing insane numbers as closer. It remains the highest money total given to a reliever since Wren became general manager. Peter Moylan received a raise from $410,000 to $1.15 million, and Wren signed Takashi Saito to a one-year deal worth $3.2 million. Saito gave the Braves very good numbers, but he managed just 54 innings due to a hamstring strain and shoulder inflammation.
That season’s bullpen spread the money out a little more than the first years of Wren’s reign after Soriano and Gonzalez departed, but the overall increase was minimal. Despite just a small increase in pay, the Braves’ top five bullpen arms produced a 2.32 ERA and 2.97 FIP.
In 2011, Wren’s bullpen spending in relation to effectiveness simply embarrassed the rest of the general managers. The top five arms combined to make $4,943,500. Yes, that’s the total. This marked the year of the emergence of the big three: Craig Kimbrel, Jonny Venters and Eric O’Flaherty. Venters and O’Flaherty both had good years in 2010, but this was the first season all three would put it together as a trio, while none of the three even cracked $1 million.
In fact, the two lesser arms among the top five made the most. Scott Linebrink topped the list at $2 million, and Wren even managed to get the White Sox to cover $3.5 million to unload Linebrink. George Sherrill made $1.2 million as a bloated LOOGY deal. Moylan’s contract continued to go up, reaching $2 million, but he only threw eight innings due to Tommy John surgery.
That season’s top five arms produced a 2.31 ERA and 2.84 FIP… for a little less than $5 million.
In 2012, it was more of the same but with small raises. The top five totaled $5,003,250. They combined on a 2.30 ERA and 3.06 FIP. (Thank Chad Durbin for the increased FIP.) The highest paid was O’Flaherty at $2.49 million. The trend continues.
So, essentially, this is what you have (top five arms):
Year – Total/Highest Paid/ERA/FIP
2008 – $5,395,000/$2.5m/4.10/4.08
2009 – $11,010,000/$6.35m/2.94/3.06
2010 – $11,940,000/$6.75m/2.32/2.97
2011 – $4,943,500/$2m/2.31/2.84
2012 – $5,003,250/$2.49m/2.30/3.06
Relievers are volatile creatures. Wren can’t afford to make a spending mistake in the bullpen. He knows both of these things and has done an outstanding job of keeping the bullpen spending down while taking advantage of what the farm system produced. Yes, Kimbrel and Venters came from the farm, but Wren deserves credit for piecing around them with cheap but effective arms.
The Braves’ ability to produce solid bullpens cheaply is compounded by the fact that other teams are throwing money at their pens. The Phillies are paying Jonathan Papelbon $13 million each of the next three years. Wren has never paid $13 million for an entire bullpen. The Dodgers are paying Brandon League a total of $22.5 million guaranteed with a chance to up that by nearly $10 million in vesting options. The Marlins paid Heath Bell $7 million in 2012 and is owed $10 million each of the next two seasons.
Wren has an interesting dilemma regarding Kimbrel’s future and O’Flaherty’s current earnings, but if history is any indication, he knows when to pay, when to part and how to take advantage of relievers coming through the system. His greatest test is soon arriving.
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Kimbrel might be worth the arb numbers he’ll get. Wren could ditch O’Flaherty at any time and I’d be fine with it.
You should really get off Durbin’s case. He had a great year. Yes it started rough. I can tell you this, the team would have not finished as well without his presence.
Cut him some slack. Venters struggled and Durbin picked up the mess.
It’s nice having a GM that values such an important part of a roster. It’s even nicer that he makes a killing by getting the good ones for cheap. I agree with Clint above that Kimbrel is more than worth what he’ll get, and we should be able to reload easily if someone were to walk. Avilan looked fantastic against lefties down the stretch. Vizcaino would sure look nice in our pen, but it seems we’ve got other guys on the farm nearly ready to give the MLB bullpen a go. Sims, Graham, and Wood (if he truly did fix that hop) have fastballs in the mid 90′s that I think would work well in late innings, especially since none of our current starters are exactly flame throwers.
What are the chances of one, or any of those 3 making it to the big club in 2013?
However, wren should try to improve the offense now that we are stable pitching
1
I agree that it’s worth whatever it takes to keep Kimbrel for the long haul. Closers like that are once in a decade pitchers.
Agree
Disagree, he’s great, I’d hate to see him pitch elsewhere, but giving him 13-15 million a year would be rediculous especially on a team with a mid-low range payroll.
Great read. We are lucky to have Wren as the GM. He has true talent at making the most out of a tight payroll. I think it is about time to sell EOF and get some talent back.
We should not do “whatever it takes” to keep Kimbrel for the long haul, particularly if “whatever it takes” is a lucrative deal for 5 or more years. Although Kimbrel’s peripherals make him one of the surest bets, relief pitchers are generally the most volatile in baseball. Plus, Kimbrel only contributes in 60-80 innings a season. While he is certainly the most dominant Braves player, his position is not of the more difficult to replace. I agree with keeping Kimbrel as long as we can, but let’s not break the bank for a player who, even in a season as dominant as the one he just completed, was only worth 3.2 WAR.
I think after the Madson/Papelbon/Miller signings this past offseason, a lot of attention has been on whether closers are really worth as much as they get. People were questioning the save stat more than ever, as well as the role in which a ‘closer’ is used. The position has never been under more scrutiny. Having terrible contracts like the 3 I mentioned earlier will probably give teams a bargaining chip when it comes to signing closers this offseason. I think times are changing contract-wise for the position, and the numbers will begin coming back down to Earth. After seeing all of the injuries to closers and relievers, I would expect a lot of contracts to be heavy on incentives, which, if Kimbrel repeats his success would certainly all be met. I think at that point, it is certainly ‘worth it.’
Also, Kimbrel had a 3.6 fWAR. Barring Aroldis Chapman (3.3 fWAR) the next closest reliever was Fernando Rodney at 2.4 fWAR. When someone who pitches 60-80 innings gets you more than 1 win over another dominant pitcher, that can make a huge difference.
He was worth 3.6 this year. But, you say “only” as if that is some small number. I know you know this, but WAR is extremely relative. He’s “only” produced 3.6 WAR this season, but that’s in much less opportunity than other relievers, starters, position players.
The 3.6 WAR is actually the 3rd highest total in the last 10+ years behind only Eric Gagne’s Cy Young season (4.3) and J.J. Putz at 4.0.
Because of his “role” it’s highly doubtful we’ll ever see him put up 5-6-7 WAR. But, if he’s consistently leading the league in WAR at his position, then he’s well worth the money he’ll demand.
Look at it this way… would you want him on any other team pitching against us? Unless the kid gets some kind of supersized NY style ego and demands insane numbers in free agency, we better never let him go unless there is a drastic decline in ability.
Sorry about the WAR. That’s what I get for trusting ESPN.
I absolutely understand that his WAR blows away nearly all other relievers. But you’re essentially making my point. Kimbrel’s value, no matter how dominant he is, is always going to be limited by his position. Just look at the other guys you mentioned – Eric Gagne and J.J. Putz. Are either of those guys that you would be happy about giving a long-term lucrative contract to?
Kimbrel is definitely important to the Braves, and it’s important that the Braves make strong efforts to keep him. However, I hope the Braves also take the appropriate caution that they should when considering a large contract for a relief pitcher.
Point taken. I have to agree with Spence in that Atlanta and other teams will look at the horrible contracts of Papelbon et. al. and see that such LARGE contracts for an extremely specialized position is ridiculous.
Still, I can see paying the man $3-5 million, plus some incentives, a season being worthwhile.
The Yankees proved over the years that a shutdown closer in the playoffs means everything. I think if the Braves had Kimbrel in the 90s they would have won 2 or 3 World Series.
Long term contracts and closers just dont mix. They routinely lose effectiveness and/or health at unpredictable times. Kimbrel is clearly an incredible talent, but guys like that cant throw those fireballs forever. The flash in the pan closers come an go all the time. I would be surprised if craig didnt spend significant time on the DL either of the next couple of years.
Also, is the consensus that Fangraphs’ WAR is better than Baseball Reference’s? That’s an honest question.
BR lists Kimbrel at 3.2, and has lower corresponding WARs for Gagne and Putz
Fangraphs is the best place IMHO.
Use Fangraphs for everything. Their site is laid out better and they have a better formula behind most of their metrics. (IMHO)
I would agree with these other guys. After fiddling around with both for awhile, fangraphs is much clearer and has a lot more info. Some cool features too, that I haven’t seen on BR.
This explains the difference:
http://www.fangraphs.com/forums/topic.php?id=6560
I say after all of the spending is done and what not I would sign Kimbrel to a long term deal
I think we can all agree that Kimbrel is insansely talented, and if he’s not worth all that much based on how he is being used, why not try to use him differently so as to maximize his value?
Either 1) use him in higher leverage situations (probably won’t happen, at least not with Fredi around),
or 2) make him a starter. I know if doesn’t always work, but has anyone at least considered it, and if not, why not?
I think starting may be out of the question. I think the best Fredi could do to maximize his value is use him similar to the way Chapman was used in Cincy. Let him pitch in the 8th. He can do it easily. And it would make life for our starters even easier than it already is. Obviously there should be a limit for innings on a weekly basis so he isn’t throwing 10 innings a week. But I think 6-8 wouldn’t hurt.
I’ve always thought Venters would be a solid option as a starter, until his control issues started to resurface this past season. He could take a few miles off the fastball and still be the hardest throwing guy in the rotation. He would just need to put in some considerable work on a changeup.
Venters was a horrible starter in the minors, hence the move to reliever. Kimbrel is not a starter, he is a late inning pitcher. He has 2 pitches, and also his style of pitching is only conducive to late innings. With that being said, 3.6 WAR is worth around 14 mill a year so anything under would theoretically be a “bargain.”
The best part is Wren and the scouting staff making wise decisions on who they draft for pitching prospects. We all are optimistic about guys like Gilmartin and Richard, but the Braves do extremely well of drafting pitchers for the bullpen, with the idea that they’ll make a quick rise through the system.
If they keep doing that not only will the bullpen remain relatively cheap, but also continue to be good.
HERE is the only thing I want Wren to spend his time on and that is getting rid of Uggla, I dont care how or what just when. here some teams and trades i think be perfect
Uggla/Figgins
leadoff hitter
uggla/Alfonso Soriano
right handed power and frees up to go after either Hamilton or
uggla/wells
Can we please stop with this stuff? Please?
Bobby, do you ONLY look at batting average?
Figgins, A. Soriano, Wells are the answer to the following question: Who are three guys with even worse contracts and less production than Uggla?
Thanks again Bobby.
Why not Uggla for Carl Crawford???
I like the idea of trading Uggla. You won’t get Crawford from the Dodgers. But being Atlanta is going to lose Bourn, why not trade Uggla to arizona for Justin upton. Then move Tyler Pastornicky to second. Having Simmons and T.P. in the middle Inf, sounds like a nice DP team.
Just to add on to my last comment. Uggla for Jacoby Elsbery wouldn’t be bad either.
David Ross signs for the Red Sox.
Oh dear.
David Ross leaving is probably the biggest dumb move by the Braves I have seen. Well, not really, but it ranks up there. How could this happen? What was Frank Wren doing? And it’s not like this is part of a master plan; Wren probably didn’t think David would leave, so he treated him poorly.
This is terrible, and I am supremely disappointed.
Best of luck to David in Boston, though.
Ross gets to platoon with Salty so it will increase with value. Great signing by the Sox. Ross will outperform this contract.
Dob just tweeted that Ross went from making $3-odd million over two years to making $6ish million over two years.
Not to sound alarmist but……..How could Wren let this happen? Who is going to cattch until McCann returns to form?
lets get an article about the potential outfield signees!
Sad to see Ross go, but I’m sure there’s a good reason why Wren didn’t want to spend that kind of money on a backup catcher.
With Ross leaving I say go after napoli. He can be a right-handed option to both mccann and freeman. After a down season he may be willing for a short term contract to improve his “stock”.
I have a feeling that hes got something up his sleeve. Or Ross going to Boston means that Gattis is going to be the back up and future catcher while McCann rehabs the Braves will sign Boscan or someone else.
Justin Upton Wil Neives and JJ Putz to the Braves for Salecdo Bethancourt Hanson and Billy Bullock.
Then trade Uggla Janish and Gilmartin to KC for Jarrod Dyson Brett Hayes and Tony Abreu
You are a moron. Spell it out with me now: M-O-R-O-N.
ROFL, Nice try, but I dont think Bobby can read.
Did anybody see on MLBTR that the Rangers tried to get Simmons to flip to Arizona for Upton (because they don’t want to move Andrus or Profar)? That made me ask two questions:
First, what would the Braves have gotten? Olt would have to be the starting point, but I’d think Wren would want another big piece.
Second, if the Braves were going to trade Simmons, and he was ultimately going to end up in Arizona, wouldn’t it make more sense to cut out the Rangers as the middle man?
I’m not so sure Ross will continue to hit though, his wOBA has declined for 3 straight years and he’s bound to hit the wall sooner rather than later. Even as a backup, most catchers don’t have very productive seasons at 37-38…
Maybe he will, he’s at a good park for right handers.