Arizona Fall League Wrap-Up
November 21, 2012 at 3:26 pm by Ethan Purser under Prospects
After a month of games that brought joy to the prospect guru inside us all, the AFL’s schedule came to a close this weekend, as the Peoria Javelinas, whose team was composed of prospects from the Reds, Phillies, Twins, Padres, and Mariners, were crowned champions of the league. The Phoenix Desert Dogs finished last in the AFL West division, compiling a 13-15-4 record.
Prospects from the Braves organization turned in some impressive—and some not-so-impressive—performances. For your viewing and reading pleasure, I’ve compiled how each prospect from the Braves system performed during their time in Arizona. As always, keep in mind the context of the statistics presented, as the AFL is normally viewed as an offensive league.
Zeke Spruill, RHP: Spruill pitched 22.1 innings for the Desert Dogs, allowing nine earned runs and posting a 13/7 strikeout-to-walk ratio. While the K/BB isn’t eye-popping, Spruill did a great job of inducing weak contact and keeping the ball on the ground, producing a 2.38 GO/AO. Spruill isn’t extremely fancy and doesn’t light up radar guns with regularity, but he litters the strike zone with a very effective sinker and two average to above-average secondaries. Spruill is a good prospect and almost assuredly has a major league career ahead of him; hopefully more people realize this after his impressive stint in the AFL. He was recently added to the 40-man roster.
Nick Ahmed, SS: In 83 plate appearances, Ahmed hit .288/.361/.452 with a home run and a 9/11 walk-to-strikeout ratio. Ahmed put his above-average speed to work in the AFL, stealing five bases in eight attempts and leading the Desert Dogs in triples with three. The 6’3”, 205-pound shortstop generated rave reviews over the course of the fall league, impressing scouts and prospect writers alike. He was Atlanta’s lone representative in the AFL Rising Stars game. Ahmed continues to grow as a prospect, and his performance in the AFL and the regular season cements him as an easy top-10 prospect in the system, in my opinion.
Ryan Buchter, LHP: Buchter, who was used solely out of the bullpen for Phoenix, pitched 14.1 innings, allowing three earned runs, 10 hits, and posting a 14/9 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The big lefty limited left-handed hitters to a .045 batting average and produced a 1.80 GO/AO versus same-handed batters. I’m not ready to say Buchter’s control issues are behind him, but his fine showing in the AFL was a step in the right direction.
Chris Jones, LHP: Jones, also used as a bullpen piece for the Desert Dogs, pitched 15.2 innings for the Desert Dogs, allowing eight earned runs and 14 hits along with an 11/7 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Surprisingly enough, Jones was tougher on right-handed hitters than he was on left-handed hitters, which is very odd due to the massive platoon splits he has posted over the past couple of seasons (yay for small samples!). Personally, I was expecting a bit more dominance from Jones—especially against lefties—but his performance in the AFL was far from terrible.
Cory Brownsten, C: A surprise inclusion on Phoenix’s roster, Brownsten replaced the injured Matt Kennelly on Phoenix’s roster and performed well in his limited playing time. In 26 plate appearances, Brownsten hit .400/.423/.440 with a 1/4 walk-to-strikeout ratio. Don’t read too much into Brownsten’s success in Arizona, as 26 plate appearances is a ridiculously small sample upon which to judge a player. He owns a career line of .227/.315/.311 in three seasons in the system, and given his prowess behind the plate, Brownsten profiles as an organizational piece with good catch-and-throw skills and nothing more.
Edward Salcedo, 3B: After another fairly disappointing season from a statistical standpoint at High-A Lynchburg, Salcedo performed miserably in Arizona, compiling a .140/.187/.267 line with a 5/22 walk-to-strikeout ratio in 91 plate appearances. When he made contact, Salcedo flashed some pop, as eight of his 12 hits went for extra bases. In the field, Salcedo committed six errors, although David O’Brien of the AJC reported that his lofty error total did not paint the full picture. While it would be easy to lambast Salcedo’s efforts in the AFL, one has to take into account his age, as he was one of the youngest hitters in the league facing much older pitching and much more advanced pitch sequencing than he has likely ever seen. Salcedo is an extremely frustrating prospect—and there are holes in his game that were exploited in Arizona—but he remains one of the highest-ceiling bats in the system; we’re just waiting on some sort of consistency from him.
Cory Rasmus, RHP: Rasmus pitched 14.1 innings out of the bullpen for the Desert Dogs, allowing 12 earned runs and posting a 13/6 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Opponents hit .295 against Rasmus, and as noted in the AFL primer, Rasmus’s tendency toward fly balls not only led to a 0.67 GO/AO, but also to the team-leading four home runs he allowed while in Arizona. Peter Wardell, an intern at Baseball America and writer for Bullpen Banter, had this to say about Rasmus. The former supplemental round pick was recently added to the 40-man roster.
Other prospects from the Braves system are playing this winter in various Caribbean Winter Leagues. A few of the notable prospects and their performances thus far are listed below.
Todd Cunningham, OF: Playing for the Naranjeros de Hermosillo in the Liga Mexicana del Pacifico, Cunningham has performed well, hitting .274/.367/.421 with three home runs and an 8/21 walk-to-strikeout ratio in 95 at-bats. He has also added three stolen bases in five attempts. Somewhere, Ben Duronio is smiling.
Daniel Rodriguez, LHP: Signed out of the Mexican League in August, Rodriguez finished the regular season by pitching six innings for Gwinnett and has spent his offseason playing for the Tomateros de Culiacan in the Liga Mexicana del Pacifico. In 9.1 innings, Rodriguez has allowed four earned runs on 11 hits, compiling a 13/2 strikeout-to-walk ratio along the way. He’s getting hit around a bit, but his repertoire, which includes a sinking fastball, changeup, and hard-biting curveball, has allowed him to keep the ball on the ground, as evidenced by his 1.50 GO/AO ratio. Here is a video of him pitching from 2011.
Christian Bethancourt, C: Bethancourt is recovering from an August hand injury in the Liga de Beisbol Dominicano. In 35 at-bats, Bethancourt is hitting .257/.270/.343 with three doubles and one walk for the Tigres del Licey. Bethancourt was recently added to the 40-man roster.
Julio Teheran, RHP: Teheran joined the Tigres del Licey earlier this month and has struggled in his three appearances with the club. In 8.2 innings, Teheran has allowed 8 earned runs on 16 hits with a 5/4 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Opponents are hitting .432 against him. That’s a small sample and all, but yikes.
Evan Gattis, C/OF: Gattis has continued to hit and to hit with authority in the Liga Venezuela Beisbol Profesional, posting a .270/.333/.478 line with six home runs and an 9/17 walk-to-strikeout ratio in 115 at-bats for the Aguilas del Zulia. He’s cooled off a bit in his past 10 games, posting a .592 OPS in 38 at-bats.
Ernesto Mejia, 1B: Gattis and Mejia have combined to form a force with which to be reckoned in the middle of Zulia’s lineup. In 132 at-bats, Mejia—who was recently added to the 40-man roster—has posted a .326/.355/.583 line with nine home runs and a 4/40 walk-to-strikeout ratio. While he has not shown any patience and has fanned far too many times, Mejia has provided Zulia with extra-base pop, a trait that could come in handy off of Atlanta’s bench down the road. In 132 at-bats, Mejia’s secondary average is .288. He has only walked four times. Do the math.
Luis Avilan, LHP: Avilan was extremely effective in his appearances with Atlanta in 2012, so his success in the Liga Venezuela Beisbol Profesional should come as no surprise. In 10 innings thus far for the Cardenales de Lara, Avilan has allowed two earned runs on four hits—good for a 1.80 ERA and a .125 opponent average—while compiling a 10/5 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Avilan has done a great job of keeping the ball on the ground, posting a 3.00 GO/AO.
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What’s the age difference between Ahlmed and Simmons? With Simmons basically being a staple at SS with the Braves for the conceivable future, would Ahlmed basically be considered future trade bait?
Michael,
He could be used in a trade, yes. He could also be used at 2nd, 3rd, or even center (just speculating on the last one based on what he brings to the table). The Braves like Ahmed a lot, so they will presumably find a place for him.
A lot of the prospect guru’s see Ahmed moving to 2B eventually. That’s without taking into account the positional roadblock Simmons poses.
I could see Ahmed putting up a .260/.320/.390 line at his relative peak. I would take that at second base for league min.
What gives you this insight?
Taking into evaluation his minor league stats, along with his age and the level he’s playing at, I surmised based on my amateur analysis skills what I reasonably think his ceiling could be in the majors.
Where did you think I came up with that from?
I thought it was horse hockey, which is why I asked.
I think it’s a bit soon to start making projections. Let the guy face some AA pitching first eh?
Teheran’s performance is cause for concern given his disappointing performance at Gwinnett this past year. He was one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. What happened to him? Could he be injured?
I was already suspicious of injury. Even more so now that I’ve read this article.
Juan Francisco is also having a good time playing in the DR. And according to DOB he has been working with a personal trainer so far through the off-season. I think Juan’s progress so far could lead to us over-spending a bit on Bj Upton, which fills CF and gives us another rh power bat versus lefties. That could allow Prado to stay in LF and Juan at 3B. A strong right-handed bat in CF–in my opinion–is really the only way Juan gets a shot at starting. Otherwise we get a lighter hitting–or lefty hitting–center fielder and have to acquire a left fielder. I’m really starting to like the idea of getting BJ Upton if that is indeed the scenario–which if it pays off we would have the most balanced power hitting squad Atlanta has seen in a while.
Wishful thinking, using last year’s numbers:
Upton: 28 HRs
Francisco: 29 HRs (prorated from ’12)
Freeman: 23 HRs
Heyward: 27 HRs
McCann: 20 HRs
Uggla: 20 HRs (ugh)
Gattis: 65 HRs
No Prado / Simmons?
Oh yeah Gattis will be playing their positions as well.
Can Mejia play anyother position?
no.
Man, I missed a lot of posts. That’s what happens when the Dawgs are playing in a NC semifinal.
Juan Francisco is also having a good time playing in the DR. And according to DOB he has been working with a personal trainer so far through the off-season. I think Juan’s progress so far could lead to us over-spending a bit on Bj Upton, which fills CF and gives us another rh power bat versus lefties. That could allow Prado to stay in LF and Juan at 3B. A strong right-handed bat in CF–in my opinion–is really the only way Juan gets a shot at starting. Otherwise we get a lighter hitting–or lefty hitting–center fielder and have to acquire a left fielder. I’m really starting to like the idea of getting BJ Upton if that is indeed the scenario–which if it pays off we would have the most balanced power hitting squad Atlanta has seen in a while.
Wishful thinking, using last year’s numbers:
Upton: 28 HRs
Francisco: 29 HRs (prorated from ’12)
Freeman: 23 HRs
Heyward: 27 HRs
McCann: 20 HRs
Uggla: 20 HRs (ugh)
Gattis: 65 HRs
I don’t think that’s too much wishful thinking aside from Gattis… More likely around 55 or so ;)
But, as much as I’d like to see it, I just don’t think the Braves are going to give Francisco full-time AB’s. With the surplus of pitching we have, I fully expect the Braves to go after another outfielder (Span, Victorino, Justin Upton, Willigham) and leave Prado at 3B.
I don’t see it being to much of a stretch to have a lineup of…
Victorino/Span/J. Upton
Prado
B.J. Upton/Heyward
McCann
Heyward/B.J. Upton
Uggs/Freeman
Freeman/Uggs
Simmons
(Obvious order shifts with McCann’s replacement, starting pitcher, etc…)
Gattis: 65 HRs…….I literally laughed out loud, made my day. The way some blogs are talking about him he may already be a hall of famer…
Gattis with 65 HRs…I’m assuming you aren’t projecting him to get called up until the all star break?
This is sort of off-topic, but I was listening to MLB radio this morning, and they were discussing the Royals needing pitching and possibly offering Wil Myers as trade bait. The names being discussed were established #1 or 2 guys like Lester and Shields.
It got me to thinking, would Wren consider getting an MLB-ready prospect like Myers to fill one of the open outfield spots? And would the Royals have any interest in any of the Braves pitchers that would be available?
I’m assuming they wouldn’t want prospects like Delgado or Teheran because the whole premise of the discussion was that it looked like the Royals front office felt they were a front-line starter (i.e. not a prospect) away from winning now. Then again, what do Jim Memelo and Todd Hollandsworth know?
I don’t think it’s really a possibility when trying to match the two teams. We both want major league players, not projects. Myers would be better fit for a team that isn’t planning on contending, and I think the Royals should just hold onto him. They aren’t going to get a major league ready, front line starter from us, and we need a proven major league talent in our outfield if we want to contend on the level we’re all expecting. Prospects like Myers are interesting and fun to think about, but a 94 win team should be looking to fill holes with players that are ready to hep immediately.
Best case for the Royals is they find a taker for Francoeur and work Myers in slowly in right since he doesn’t have a definitive OF position.
The Royals should through Frenchy in the trash and start Myers, not trade him. I think if Hanson had a solid 2012 then we could deal him, but no Brave matches up except Medlen and we would be ignoramuses for dealing him for anyone not named Trout.
Sadly, I agree that we don’t really have anything they would want for Myers.
It may just be that I spent 6 months watching Harper and Trout as rookies, but I don’t know that I buy the argument that we wouldn’t have a spot in the lineup for Myers, though. And add to that the fact that we have a history of starting rookies (Heyward, Freeman, Simmons) on contending teams. On the other hand, none of those 3 were being relied on to help replace Chipper’s numbers like Myers would if he were a Brave in 2013.
Made the mistake of reading an MLBTR NL East chat transcript. Found this and nearly threw the computer through a window. Read at your own risk, and may God bless mike14960′s soul.
Comment From mike14960
Why is everyone seem to think that Michael Bourn is not coming back? Reading an article the other day, Bourn brings way more to the table than speed, like work ethic, clubhouse guy and so on. The Braves also have an opening in left for a power bat. What are they going to do about the Leadoff spot if Bourn does go?
That whole chat was ridiculous. The guy answering questions was pretty off, too, I think. He said there was a 67% chance that Mike Stanton would be in a different uniform come opening day. That’s insane.
*Giancarlo
I realized it was going to be bad when the guy answering questions said that Tommy Hanson would net more than Lorenzo Cain from the Royals. He also referred to Hanson as a top of the rotation guy. I should have stopped there but it was getting to be entertaining how stupid people were being. I had never looked at comments or anything on MLBTR, but I figured they would have been a lot more intelligent than what I was reading. And all of the people asking questions were clamoring about Wil Myers like he was the second coming of Jesus.
Anyone want Chone Figgins for league minimum?
Bobby does, but he’s probably pretty pissed that we’re not going to be able get him in a trade completely disconnected from reality.
What are you talking about? We all know that Bobby is now configuring trades for the Marlins…
lol
Speaking out of curiosity…
Has anyone else besides me developed a sudden hatred for the Dodgers that ranks right up there with the Yankees and the Sox? TradeRumors is reporting they are now interested in Kyle Lohse. I mean, he’s not the greatest pitcher in the world, but it does seem like their new ownership is trying to test the Yankees/Sox tried and true management strategy…. purchase World Series trophy.