Braves Sign BJ Upton
November 28, 2012 at 5:15 pm by Ben Duronio under Atlanta Braves
According to Ken Rosenthal’s twitter, the Braves have signed BJ Upton to play centerfield. The contract being reported by @BNightengale says it is a five year $70-75m contract.
That contract seems very reasonable to me, and using a $5m per win estimation and assuming it is for $75m, the Braves are essentially expecting him to be a three win player throughout the next five years. While there are certainly risks in any long term deal, see Derek Lowe and Dan Uggla, I do like taking a gamble on Upton for this length and for this amount of money.
While it is doubtful that he outproduces Bourn’s 2012 season, he does provide the Braves with solid defense in center as well as a powerful right-handed bat that has historically hit left-handed pitchers very well.
Upton has had a few big seasons, most notably his 2007 and 2008 campaigns, and while it is true that he has never quite maximized his potential, that is one of the reasons I am in favor of signing him. It is rare that a free agent signing has the ability to actually be better than he has been. I caution everyone not to expect him to be better, but the potential for him to perform at a higher level is real.
What we are getting is essentially a 3.5 win player in a prime position during the prime of his career. He has had a history with “lackadasical” performances that may cause some to worry about his level of interest, but that is pure speculation and does not belong at a place like this where we are here to discuss baseball in a logical and reasonable manner.
If I had to make a quick projection of what to expect out of him, his season last year certainly looks reasonable. His average and on base percentage were subpar, but he hit 28 home runs and stole 31 bases in a pitcher’s ballpark.
Loading ...
Only way the Braves could get J. Upton is by including Marin Prado in a deal, and there is no way in hell Atlanta will do that, which is a very smart decision.
Denard Span to the Nationals… NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
I know, this just made all dreams of a Span/ Upton/ Heyward outfield go complete out the window…damn those pesky Gnats
Span would have been quite an expensive left fielder with no power, especially since he’s better in CF than Upton. But you usually don’t move your new free agent CF into a corner spot immediately. I’m telling you, Francisco could potentially be a 2+ WAR guy at 3B for considerably less (about $550k) than what we would get on the free agent market or through a trade.
OK so assume we have to fill LF and 3B. You have someone like Span, a good defender and doubles, OBP, AVG, hitter, as well as Kinda fast. He will make $4.75m in 2013. Not your prototypical LF. So that leaves Prado at 3rd for $5.5-6m in arbitration. Total: $10.5m for 2013.
OR we can leave Prado in LF, where he will continue playing excellent defense and hitting like Martin Prado hits. He’s more valuable in LF then Denard Span would be for roughly the same price. That leaves 3B. I don’t think Francisco would outperform Prado in defense or offensive value, but he could still add a hell of a lot of value at almost the league minimum–$4m less than Span and 5m less than Prado. He’s crap against lefties but would most likely be hitting 6-8 in the order for the majority of the season. Reports say that he has stayed with his commitment to working out and losing weight, which could give him average range at 3B with a cannon arm. All of this while keeping a top pitching prospect, and/or lots of money.
The Span thing is odd. He’s really under priced at his current salary, yet Twins are very open about wanting Ben Revere to replace him. Revere is supposed to be a good CFer, but Span rated as #2 in MLB behind Bourn in 2012. Revere is a pure singles hitter. And then they trade him for one A/AA level top prospect. What they got proves to me Wren made no serious run at Span.
It all makes me wonder if there is something about Span we don’t know.
Span did miss a considerable amount of time in 2011 with post-concussion syndrome. It didn’t seem to affect him in 2012 though, so I don’t know if it was injury-related or if the Twins just saw him as a disposable part.
Did you see what they had to give up for span?? A freaking minor league pitcher… nothing more…………
Why the hell did talks fizzle with the Braves then???
That “freaking minor league pitcher” was their number 1 pitching prospect.
“Meyer, the 23rd overall selection of the 2011 draft, pitched well in 2012, his lone season as a pro. He pitched at Class A, posting a 2.86 ERA with 9.7 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in 129 innings. The 6’9″ 22-year-old might rank sixth among Twins prospects, John Manuel of Baseball America notes”
True but he was only a B prospect according to Sickles. He ranks JR Graham and Teheran as the Braves B prospects. The Braves will spend $75M over 5 years for Upton and the Nats will spend $21M over 3 years for Span. Span and Upton are both 3-4 WAR players. I’d give the edge to Upton based on potential though.
I just find it hard to believe that the Braves would not have been better off minus JR Graham, with Span in CF, an additional $8M (average $21M/3) to spend on a LFer, and a 3 year deal as opposed to the 5 year deal that they have with Span.
Don’t get me wrong I think Upton is a good signing for the Braves. My point is with the Braves limited payroll I think the Span deal was a better option. The way I see it is the Braves did okay but the Nats did great.
Maybe we offered them but the twins didn’t want them. Its hard to compare Upton to Span when we don’t know who the twins wanted from us. But you can say we have Upton AND still have a top pitching prospect instead of Span. And I think Upton’s upside is what Wren and co coveted more than doubles and big time defense.
I’m guessing the Twins wanted Teheran for Span and Wren didn’t want to give him up. Wren may have been open to sending Gilmartin, Graham or Wood, but not Teheran.
Again, just pure speculation.
Span seems like the perfect piece to the puzzle after adding BJ. Letting him go to the Gnats for such a small price seems like a pretty big miscalculation by Wren at this point. Now Wren has to find a guy who can play LF and leadoff. That’s like trying to draw to an inside straight. And every other GM in baseball knows what he needs. Wren will have to pay through the nose in prospects, pay through the nose to sign Victorino (yuck), or scrounge up a dead weight guy like Ludwick and settle for Simmons leading off.
None of those options seem very palatable to me.
Come on, guys. Clearly with Span off the board they Braves will just sign Hamilton.
My God, Hamilton, Upton, and Heyward. What a troubled, lazy, crazy-productive outfield.
I’m pissed about missing Span especially with how little they gave up for him. There aren’t really any other outfielders I would be excited about us signing. And Francisco is not an everyday player stop saying he is.
I feel it is a bit absurd to tag Upton as a “solid” defensive player. He is fairly horrible in nearly every relevant defensive metric…example…bourn saved 50 runs the last 3 seasons in center….Upton was -30….80 run swing.
I want Francisco to get a lot of PAs this year. Can’t we just rotate Francisco/Prado/Constanza/Some other LF
I agree. Spahn has actually produced more WARs in less time than Upton. I’d rather see this money used to resign Reed Johnson, just for example, extend the young talent, and sign prospects.
I’ve realized my dislike of this deal really comes down to Upton’s style of play versus Spahn’s. I just enjoy watching the contact hitter/on base guys more than the free-swinging guys with streaky power. I bite my nails a lot more watching the latter, but I have to concede the metrics say the relative value is roughly equivalent.
FW could’ve traded 4 Span but seems like price was 2 steep and maybe other plans are developing… I strongly suggest moving Paul M AND/OR Hanson, even if just 4 salary dumps or some low B or C prosp, minor league OF depth, just get them o the books w/o eating salary–their A combined 10-11 Mill…much rather plug in Julio or Delgado for league min knowing Beachy will contribute down stretch…
Huddy, Meds, Minor, Julio/Delgado plus sign Zack Greinke 2 come play in GA for around 16 mill per……I’m only dreaming but it would bring fans-pack house daily…
I actually see Juan F getting plenty of AB’s, while Uggs getting few more off days if his swing is truly gone 2 far depths…Prado bouncing back and forth…Obatin a above avg LF either with lead of skills and plus-plus Def or a HR/SB 20/20 type guy. Maybe FW wants Bourjos or sleeper C Rasmus from blue jays…that would be my move 2 really compete…bring him back home 2 GA and he will ball out in LF…Shouldnt cost much, plus extreme upside, 5 tool potential player…Id pull the move all day long even if it costs me Julio straight up all day long and twice on Sundays…
J Hey, Prado, Freeman, Simmons, ready 2 play and win..the line up could b deadly if Uggla can help carry any o the load, esp at 12-13 mill….BJ will do his part. the real deal B-MAC will be BACK!!!!! best trade would be c rasmus from TOR while his value is lower than Norm OR surprise MLB and trade 4 Justin Upton and have the BEST outfield of ALL time off and def. 30/30 across board.
Could you repost that comment written in English?
Hanson to Angles!
sign Victorino for 2 yrs, plus 3rd year option and have flexibility to bat him or Simmons leadoff