The Braves Should Trade Eric O’Flaherty
November 30, 2012 at 3:04 pm by Ben Duronio under Atlanta Braves
With the acquisition of Jordan Walden, the Braves almost certainly have the best bullpen in baseball at this point in time — at least on paper. They have a plethora of power arms that can get both righties and lefties out, and to me it looks like moving the most expensive piece who is at the peak of his value would be a wise decision.
Let’s take a look at what a few relievers brought back to their respective teams in trades in the past 12 months.
Andrew Bailey gets traded from Oakland to Boston, with the A’s acquiring Josh Reddick and two prospects
Mark Melancon was traded from Houston to Boston, with the Astros acquiring Jed Lowrie and Kyle Weiland.
Jordan Walden is traded from Los Angeles to Atlata, with the Angels acquiring Tommy Hanson.
Those are three rather big returns for relievers, especially when you consider Walden was on the DL for a month last year and was worth just half a win. Melancon was coming off a solid year as the closer in Houston, but that was only his first season in the majors. Bailey was coming off of back-to-back seasons with fewer than 50 innings pitched due to injuries. The year in which he pitched a full season he won the Rookie of the Year award, but he was a risky asset at the time he was traded.
While relievers are volatile, O’Flaherty has been rather steady in Atlanta. That does not mean that he is able to avoid the traditional volatility most relievers run into, but just means that he has been able to avoid it so far. Much like Jonny Venters last year, O’Flaherty could run into some struggles that really hurt his season — which will be his last in Atlanta as he enters free agency next year.
While O’Flaherty has been consistent, the last point I made — about him being a free agent next year — is important. The others were cost controlled, so they brought back a very solid return. To me, that just evens out the package though. O’Flaherty has been better and more consistent than all three of those relievers, and if he were to be put on the table a ton of teams would be begging for his services. With a price tag expected to be right around $4m, the Braves can clear some payroll, take a slight hit to the strength of the bullpen — which as noted is likely already the strongest in the league — and acquire prospects or other notable assets in return. This would free the Braves to spend a bit more in left field, which could be important as the outfield chips continue to fall. Signing a guy like Nick Swisher may only be possible if Eric O’Flaherty is traded, and it would be a shame if the Braves cannot make a deal they want to make because of a reliever in his final arbitration year taking up payroll unnecessarily.
Trading O’Flaherty is a wise call for a number of reasons, and the Braves have been quick to act so far this offseason. I do not necessarily expect the team to move him, but I imagine they are more than willing to find out what exactly his market looks like.
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Nice piece. Totally agree. Braves need to get roster flexibility when/where they can. And when you have a potential surplus of talent in an area (as the Braves appear to in the bullpen), then you move an attractive piece when the time is right … and the time is very right on EOF now.
Well, that would make even more sense out of the Hanson trade. Can’t say I’d necessarily disagree with moving O’Flaherty either, depending of course on what we get in return. Just the kind of thought-provoking stuff I come (in part) to this website for.
Trade Hansen for cheap relief help…move EOF for cheap LF help / salary room to make room for…ZACH GREINKE. Braves need an Ace, and Greinke will love Atl.
No Way no how, do you trade one of the games best set up men for prospects. Trading Eric would be foolish only if the other guy in the trade is Justin Upton or Josh Willingham
::fart sounds::
well said
Pshhh … prospects. What have they ever done for the Braves?
Seriously? Its another one of those “I can’t tell if your joking” moments.
If this is in response to my comment, obviously I was being sarcastic. If it’s in response to J’s, sadly I don’t think he was joking.
I was referring to the idiot who makes advertises his basic incomprehension of what constitutes most trades on a baseball blog that focuses on intelligent conversation.
Its a perfect time to trade EOF – sell high, try and pick up a future piece or two.
I’d keep him, would like to see what this bullpen can do. How much payroll is left?
Well then we wouldn’t be able to say “O’Ventbrel.”
“KimWalVent” just doesn’t have the same ring to it……..
Um, that’s because you have it backwards. It would probably go something like, “VentWalBrel.”
I’m going with Walventbrel.
VenDenBrel.
If we are trading bullpen pieces why not Venters then? I realize we wouldn’t get the salary relief but the number of years he is under control makes him that much more valuable. Wouldn’t he fetch us something even better?
Lower value now. I’d rather have him build back up before considering it. I would have done it last year, as I wrote about last year http://t.co/lPYt1Giz
I could go either way on this one….
Don’t agree … EOF has been outstanding for us. We still have no clear definitive leadoff hitter in the lineup. The money cleared from the Hanson trade will give the Braves enough flexibility to go after a speed first, leadoff hitter to fully complement their lineup – probably Victorino.
Great idea! Except fot the fact that Victorino isn’t really very good anymore…
Or all that fast…
He still 39 bases last year and was worth a 3.3 fWAR. What is bad about that?
Ugh stole. Damn my fat fingers!
Not a thing… Just he’s about to be 32. Everyone was worried about Bourn turning 30. The flying Hawaiian is 2 years older.
Besides, I think Wren is going the route of power + good starting pitching + shut down pen. Don’t really see us playing much small ball this year.
What teams would be most interested? Would assume it would be a competitive team w high payroll?
If it creates flexibility, then definitely go for it. If it returns prospects of the position player type, then I’m more for it. We have weaknesses at 2B, 3B, OF and C (Depending on how bethancourt returns from injury) in the farm, so replenishing those anyway we can is good.
After watching the Giants and (to a lesser degree) the Cards win like they have over the past few years, I would say keep him. If we have a legit shot at going to the World Series, it will be because of the pitching staff.
Our lineup already has slightly above average power. This lineup should also be able to make a few things happen on the base paths with Upon, Heyward and Prado. If McCann and/or Uggla were to rebound to career average form…LF would be an after thought.
If it were me, I would be calling the Marlins about Juan Pierre. He would be a cheap fit in the Lead Off or 8 hole for us. He range is above average in left…and Simmons can sprint out to cut off the 73 hoppers that he throws in…
I have only seen him play a couple of times…but is there any chance that Ernesto Mejia can play LF?
If that’s what we wanted to do, why not just trade Hanson for the position player directly, instead of trading Hanson for a reliever who can replace EoF?
Hanson is going to make $4 million in 2013. EOF is going to make about $4 million in 2013.
Trading Hanson netted a reliever who will make $500k. Tradinf EOF for a guy making the league minimum would save some more money, and EOF should net you a solid return, even for a guy who isn’t a “Proven Closer.”
I could go either way – nice points made here. Again, it really just depends on who would be desperate enough to give the Braves something of value. I’d imagine Wren would be asking something fairly steep in return, and chances are someone really needs a LHP of Eric’s quality. Freeing up $ is never a bad thing; on the other hand, we better hope Walden and Venters can find the strike zone consistently if we let O’Flaherty go.
Braves have a little more than 14 mil to spend in ’13 by moving Hanson which just tells me FW is working on another good move . I don’t see a willingham coming, but possibly a Cody Ross or dare I dream a bounce-back Shane victorino . I don’t like the thought of moving EOF but if moving him in a trade for a good leaf off OF and clearing some payroll will do it , then I say let’s roll the dice . Finally FW is learning you have to spend money to make money . I would offer a venters at winter meetings just to see what his market looks like .
What the heck do you mean by he’s finally learned? When Wren has had money he’s spent it.
On the Braves fan group I’m on, I speculated that the Hanson trade meant one of Venters or EOF was gone. It just makes too damn much sense to not get value out of one of them ASAP.
Some really dopey points made here.
The point is that we have an excess of talent in the bullpen, and flipping the most expensive piece–who we will most likely price himself out of Atlanta by next season anyway–makes the most sense in the long run. In the short term it’s an acceptable loss because we’re so strong in the bullpen.
Agreed. Most people just get hung up on the fact that O’Flaherty was so good last year and forget that bullpen pieces are almost always replaceable. Would love to see Walden back to 100% 2010 style.
I am interested to see if FW is going to try and use EOF and some other parts to try and pry away a guy like Asdubral Cabrera or Rutledge away to flip the d-backs.
I see the chances of this occurring to be below 20% really, but hell, it’s worth a mention.
If Wren doesn’t sign Victorino, I will be really surprised at what happens. It just seems to make too much sense really. (hell even his “bad” year last season was 3.3WAR) keep it 3 years or less, and $9m AAV or less, and I think it’s a good signing.
To me the answer is that Victornio derives much of his value from being able to play CF well. The Braves just signed BJ Upton to play CF for the next five years. So if you sign Victornio you and play him in CF you can project him to have 3-4 WAR season but Upton shifts to LF and loses value because his bat doesn’t play as well there. Plus from what I have read it does not seem that Victornio will have to settle for a one or two year deal.
That is a good point. (the value lowering by moving to LF is the same argument I made AGAINST moving Upton there). However, I am not so sure FW will view it in that context. If he’s got a hard on for grabbing a ‘lead off” man, I would suspect that Victorino ends up being that guy.)
Hell, who knows, I didn’t expect us to land Upton (thought Phils would snipe him) and I thought Hanson would end up in a package for a guy like Span or Fowler.
so I’m batting about.035! :-)
It actually probably wouldn’t change his WAR much. He’ll go from being a good CF to one of the top LF in the game, probably putting up similar defensive stats as Heyward in a corner. The positional adjustment hurts and his offense won’t play like a LF, but his overall value wouldn’t change much.
I admit, I often forget about the defensive improvements when analyzing positional changes when it comes to WAR value….
Ben thank you for your response it made take another look at my position. Nick I also thought those two events would occur so I am batting .035 as well. The conversation inspired me to do some additional research on positional adjustments: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/position-adjustments/
The article states that a CFer gets +2.5 runs and a LFer gets -7.5 runs for the respective position. So if BJ Upton was switched from CF to LF to accommodate Victorino he would need to be worth an additional 10 runs in Left. To me that seems reasonable and you could look at Carl Crawford as an example of how it worked in the past. Thanks again for both of your replies because I was really scratching my head as to why Wren was targeting Span and Victorino after the Upton signing.
I expect victorino to have a bounce back year . Trying to be realistic that having both uptons share turf with j-hey just isn’t likely . We have unbelievable pitching prospects . We need to exploit that . There are many teams in search of strong young arms . If we don’t we are just going to have a wealth of talent that will just age in our farm system bc let’s face it , other than huddy , we have a relatively young and strong starting rotation . Long term and short term it makes since to deal Delgado or even possibly Tehran for the right price before we even think of leting EOF go .
This is seriously crazy. The bullpen is arguably the most important part of the team in the postseason. Trading EOF in anything other than a package for a major player like j upton simply doesn’t make sense.
By the way….. INFIELD FLY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
That is all… ;)
too soon, bro.
Way too soon. Ugh.
Actually now after some research and listening to expert analysis , the Upton brothers deal doesn’t seem too far fetched . However Arizona will want andrelton . I’m not comfortable with that . If we can convince them on pastornicky and Delgado and maybe one more descent player , I think we have a chance at j. Upton and then we build a dynasty with a monster lineup , rotation , and bullpen !! Can not wait to see what FW can pull off in the winter meetings .
u r pressing space bar before punctuation, fyi.
I haven’t seen this mentioned yet, but one reason EOF might be considered expendable now is the rapid development of lefty Luis Avilan.
Clearing $4 million off the payroll wouldn’t necessarily make sense if it hurt their chances to be competitive. But with Venters and Avilan coming back, plus Walden arriving, there is plenty of outstanding bullpen depth behind Kimbrel. Getting something for EOF now makes sense since they could lose him a year from now with no return whatsoever.
Correct, Avilan’s emergence is huge.
Don’t forget about Cory Gearrin either.
Lest we forget that the new labor deal means we can’t just offer arby and get a draft pick for EOF (who WOULD have been offered arb pre 2012) . True some team may be willing to give him a 3 yr $21+ mill deal to close for them , but no way they can offer him the $13.5+ mill to earn a draft pick as required now. I expect that the “new free agency” may end up in trade and extends prior to a player’ walk year.
I wrote a very similar piece over on Tarpslides-r-us a couple months ago. He’s just getting too expensive for a set up man on a team in the Braves payroll range.
I have a crazy thought. It’s a gamble till we get Beachy back, but why aren’t we in KC’s ear about Wil Myers. Teheran and O’Flaherty for Myers …or trade for a log term prospect in Staring …
I don’t think outfield prospects like either of these come aroud very often. Myers can flat rake, Simmons would be our lead off man, and we would be slid for a longtime in the outfield…
OK, tell me I’m crazy…
Sorry didn’t proof, I meant Bubba Starling…
good point made above about Avilan. the dude was clutch down the stretch last year. Honestly, you really don’t need 3 LHP in your pen most of the time. Venters and Avilan are both stellar. So in conclusion: we’ll wait and see what happens
Hello, Ventbrelden.
Yep, trade EOF then watch Venters, Avilan and/or Kimbrel blow out their elbows next year….
I think your “return” that the other relievers that were traded is grossly overrated – you’re implying that Tommy Hanson was a “good trade” for the Angels? I’ll bet than Hanson isn’t in the Angels rotation by July….and Lowrie/Weiland for Melancon? Are you trying to compare Melancon to EOF? Insulting to EOF…not to mention that Lowrie and Weiland are fringe players, at best.
You won’t get value/return in exchange for 1 more year of EOF at a good price – and who is to say he won’t re-sign with the Braves after that? Or again, if Kimbrel blows out his arm, then EOF suddenly becomes closer material.
With The Hanson trade done the Braves should have enough money to be able to afford Swisher or even trade for Upton”s brother Justin. I see no need to get rid of Eric, the pieces are finally coming together for Atlanta to make a real run at the World Series title. send Schafer, Delgado and a prospect to the D backs for Upton and with the money the saved go out and get a veteran pitcher and I think that will make the team a valid contender.
Some quick analysis: it looks like 5 out of the 6 people clearly arguing for keeping EOF (or trading him only if it’s in a package for Justin Upton) have screen names starting with J. I wonder if they’re all really Upton the Younger himself or perhaps just some dude who likes posting.
I think Ben was right last year when he recommended trading Venters, and obviously not just because of Jonny’s poor results in 2012, but I wonder if the reason it didn’t happen was a lack of good offers. Moving to EOF’s situation, how much does he need to bring back to make a trade better than keeping him?
ok guys. i think it´s time we put this to a vote. assuming EOF IS traded, should we call the new 3 headed monster: a) Ventbrelden b) Walventbrel c) kimwalvent, d)ventwalbrel or e) WALTERSKIM
i vote E.
B. I thought the order went by what inning they pitched, respectively, hence Walventbrel.
E reflects the same order as B, you guys.
“A” seems to make the most sense to the English language, but O’Ventbrel DID denote the order they typically pitched in. So, if you have to stick to that, then “B” is basically your only option.
The braves should also try to trade Paul m and his 6.5 …even if for bp arm or prospects…just 4 salary relief and depend on Julio and until beachy
I’m really curious as to what a potential deal for Justin Upton might realistically look like. Is it even possible without including Andrelton Simmons? The Diamondbacks apparently need a #2 starter, a LH set-up man, a SS, and a 3b. Obviously Delgado and Pastornicky isn’t going to get it done. How about Maholm, O’Flaherty, Janish, Ahmed, and Francisco for Upton? Is that just a bigger poo-poo platter? All of those guys have some value, but it’s hard to see the Diamondbacks accepting a deal without any star potential.
EOF and Ahmed are probably the only things they’re interested in from that group. Maholm is solid, but he’s no #2. Even Zack Greinke is now being described as a #2-type pitcher.I just don’t think we have any position player talent that would get it done unless 1) Simba is included, or 2) they DBacks are WAY too high on Salcedo.
This is a lot like the James Harden situation that OKC just worked through. They sold an expendable asset at his highest value, and while they obviously sacrificed some talent, they are still a really good team with more flexibility and lots of future talent. Should EOF be traded for prospects, that leaves the Braves ~$18 for the rest of this offseason which would allow us to offer a fair, multi-year deal to a good LF AND start buying out arb years for our younger guys, or at least get a start.
Other than Dan Uggla (and even his is debatable) there’s not a bad contract on the team, and that should tell you a lot about Frank Wren. Our minor league system has remained intact, and our team has gotten better.
I don’t realistically see the Braves moving EOF, but surely FW is looking at it. What teams are in need of relief pitching in particular? Would the Royals go for Delgado/EOF/B prospect for Myers? I have a feeling they will try to attach Francoeur, unfortunately.
Also, with Hanson gone, do you think we go with Delgado/Teheran or try to sign a #5 this winter? John Lannan was non-tendered and would probably be pretty cheap.
No, no, and no.
O’Flaherty is the best reliever (next to Kimbrel) we have and the most consistent (next to Kimbrel). He is the quintessential set up man. Plus, Swisher doesn’t want to come here, he already said he doesn’t want to go to a place where the climate is this hot.
There are still plenty of affordable options out there that we could pursue, and losing O’Flaherty shouldn’t happen. I’d rather test the waters with Jonny Venters, than EOF.
And Venters is not stellar. He struggled last year, his control has always been testy. O’Flaherty is a consistent shut down bullpen man.
here’s the problems with your little scheme:
EOF won’t have more trade value than right now
Braves will not be making him a qualifying offer, so when he leaves, we get nuthin
The acquisition of Walden and the performance of Avilan (who combined make a tad over 1/4 of EOF’s salary) make EOF superfluous, hence maximizing his value NOW , AND saving payroll $$$ is a good move . Hoarding him may make the pen better, but would you rather have Cody Ross in left and EOF in the pen? or Swisher/Upton/??? and Avilan/Walden ?
If yer good with Cody Ross because you can’t bear to pass EOF’s 60 innings to Avilan, that’s your bidness, but I don’t think it’s a wise baseball move.
I’m not good with passing Avilan’s 60 innings on to someone else…THAT isn’t a wise baseball move.
Fredi needs a minimum of 5 solid guys in the bullpen, with the way he (over)uses it. Kimbrel, EOF, Venters, Walden, Avilan. Gearrin is situational, you can’t pitch him against a lefty, which almost necessitates carrying an extra lefty in the pen. Who is your 7th bullpen arm? C-Mart? Re-sign Durbinator? Eek.
Martinez has done a good job as a middle reliever, and you sound like a hysterical DOB blogger
I really don’t think Martinez is all that impressive – other than being able to go multiple innings in a mop-up role – he’s a last option, really. I’m not sure what to think of the 2nd half of your comment, but if I wanted to get in an immature name-calling battle, I’d be posting on the AJC blogs.
I guess one of the questions everyone should be asking is one more of EOF in the pen worth more than the $4 million we would save by moving him and the assets we could obtain by moving him?
I say maximize his value and trust that the pen is good enough as is knowing that if the pen needs some tweaking then it can be addressed via trade during the season.
Take the cash and make a move for a solid young outfielder or third baseman and we are set for long-term success, on solid ground financially, and then we’ll need to focus on rebuilding the system as I see it being depleted in a deal to get the above said OF or 3B.
[...] I am going to agree with Ben Duronio, and say that it would be a smart move to trade Eric O’Flaherty while his value is at its highest, when he will be getting paid around $4 million, and while he has just one year left on his contract. Here is some of what Duronio had to say in his article on Capitol Avenue Club: [...]
Trading EOF this winter…NO!
Accessing EOF value with clubs in need…YES!
I think that EOF could be moved…but during the season (not this winter). Frank Wren is building depth in the ‘pen as a key asset that other teams will covet. With MLB teams carrying 7 relievers and utilizing many more over a season…(yes, some are post-Sept callups)…
Braves – 21 pitchers – 13 relievers
Marlins – 21 pitchers – 14 relievers
Mets – 28 pitchers – 20 relievers
Nationals – 19 pitchers – 13 relievers
Phillies – 24 pitchers – 17 relievers
…but, trading proven bullpen arms is of great value early in the season as injuries decimate rosters before teams are eliminated…EOF is a reasonably priced proven comodity that teams value. Having depth behind him is a strength the Braves should not arbitarily surrender without valuable compensation.
I say offer the Blue Jays Uggla Janish Francisco and EOF to the Jays for Raja Davis Bonifacio and Edwin Encarnacion. Heres the line up for next year
Emilio Bonifacio Lf
Prado 2nd
Heyward
Upton
Freeman
McCann
Enacarnacion
Simmon
Then I would also sign for backup is Figgins and Nyjer Morgan
I could see an attrative EOF and others for Stanton from the marlins.
Lineup:
Simmons
Prado
Heyward
Stanton
Freeman
BJ Upton
McCann
Uggla
Picther