Trade Target: Alex Gordon
December 1, 2012 at 3:11 pm by Andrew Sisson under Atlanta Braves
This being my first post at CAC, I’d like to briefly introduce myself. My name is Andrew Sisson and I am a junior at High Point University where I’m currently studying business and finance. I previously wrote about the Braves at my personal blog, Brave Decisions. I’m honored to join CAC and look forward to contributing regularly. You can also find my thoughts on Twitter.
As the Winter Meetings are set to start Monday, the Braves can enter focused on adding their last big piece, a left fielder. Being able to lock up BJ Upton simplifies this process and gives the front office a plan with less moving parts.
A popular candidate is Royals left fielder, Alex Gordon. If you thought I was going to talk about Will Myers, sorry it’s not gonna happen. Only someone like Kris Medlen would be able to bring back Myers and I highly doubt the Braves intend on moving him. Anyways, it took awhile for Gordon to hit his stride as a player after he was drafted number two overall in 2005. He battled injuries and struggled to adjust in his first couple of major league seasons, but finally broke out with monster year in 2011.
Since the beginning of the off-season, I thought it would be wise for the Braves to tap into both of their available assets to fill the two outfield spots. The first asset, the large amount of freed up cash, has already been partially allocated towards Upton. With my estimates, I believe they still have around $14M to spend, which includes the projected $4M saved after the Tommy Hanson trade. Now, they should try to make use of the second major asset, their handful of talented pitching prospects, to acquire an outfielder on the trade market. Balancing these two areas out makes sure there is not depletion in one area and an excess amount of the other. Could the Braves go after another big free agent like Nick Swisher and fill their need, sure. It may be useful to save some of that money and make a trade if those players exceed the Braves spending limit. It also leaves money for in-house extensions. Lets remember, free agency is not really the preferred way to construct a team with budget constraints.
In 2012, Gordon posted a .294/.368/.455 triple slash, with a .357 wOBA and a 126 wRC+. He ripped 51 doubles, which was a step up from his 45 in 2011. During his career, he’s walked at a 10% clip, while striking out in around 21% of his plate appearances. His ability to get on base at a high rate would make him a great fit at the top of the Braves lineup. I could envision the top of the order looking something like Gordon/Prado/Heyward. I’m also fine with Prado leading off, but it would be beneficial to alternate L/R. No, he’s not your typical speedy/bunt for a hit leadoff hitter that will find a way first, then steal a base, but OBP is king at the top of the order no matter what form is comes in.
Michael Bourn may have been the classic prototype leadoff hitter, but in 2012 Gordon was just as effective, if not more, at getting on base and getting into scoring position. The two have different skill dependent ways of getting to bases, but in the end, they get to the same place roughly the same amount of time. If fact, played with some numbers that ultimately suggested that both Bourn and Gordon get to the same base almost the exact same amount of time. Bourn carries a risk/reward factor because he’s a stolen base threat, while Gordon uses power to rack up extra-base hits. To tie this back to my main point: if you were okay with Michael Bourn hitting leadoff in 2012, you should be just as okay with Gordon hitting leadoff in 2013.
Defensively, Gordon is among the best in the game. He’s been a two-time Gold Glove winner in 2011 & 2012. Those don’t necessarily carry a whole lot of weight, but the defensive metrics validate it. He was also Fielding Bible award winner in 2012, which heavily relies on defensive metrics and human evaluations. Among qualified left fielders the past three seasons, Gordon ranks only behind Martin Prado in UZR/150 (Ultimate Zone Rating per 150 games). DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) also loves him, ranking only behind Brett Gardner among all left fielders the past three seasons. Gordon being above average in left, would solidify the Braves to again have one of the best, if not best, defensive outfield in the league.
Gordon signed an extension with the Royals this past March that is guaranteed through 2015, with a $12.5M player option in 2016. Salaries start at $9M in 2013, and rise to $10M in 2014, and $12.5M in 2015. Player options are always a little scary; I’d much prefer a team option that keeps the contract in control of the people writing the checks. As for the money itself, it’s great team deal. Gordon has been a 5.9 and 6.9 win player (FanGraphs version) the past two seasons, so the next couple years on his contract would still remain team friendly. Even with a drop in what appears to be a high BABIP, Gordon could still be a very solid 4-5 win player over the next three seasons. The deal runs from his age 29 season, to his player option season at age 32. He may have already hit his peak as a player, but the contract still covers what should be some of his best seasons as a late bloomer.
It has been reported that the Royals are in fact listening to offers for Gordon and are looking for pitching. His asking price, as expected, is pretty high. I would assume a deal would be centered around Julio Teheran or Randall Delgado with additional top prospects. I’d much prefer to trade Delgado and keep Teheran.
Gordon would be a great fit for the Braves because he fits multiple needs all at the same time. Above average in the field and a high-OBP bat at the top of the lineup is exactly what the Braves need. Being left-handed is also beneficial. Even though it may seem like the Braves were just in desperate need of a right-handed bat, another lefty bat wouldn’t be a bad thing. With McCann out to start the season, Heyward and Freeman are the only two left-handed bats in the starting lineup. Even when he returns, it would still be a very balanced lineup (R: Prado, Upton, Uggla, Simmons… L: Gordon, Heyward, Freeman, McCann). I think Gordon could be a great fit for the team and covers all the needs they are looking for. He could be the final major piece to a Braves team that is set up as a strong contender for the foreseeable future. Alex Gordon is a player worth pursuing at the Winter Meetings, especially considering the track record of Royals front office. You never know what may happen.
Loading ...
I would be really thrilled if the Braves could acquire Alex Gordon, particularly if it only cost Delgado and an additional prospect. I am a little confused about the common perception that Gordon would come cheaper than Justin Upton. Gordon has been better than Upton (at least in terms of fWAR) each of the last two seasons and costs a bit less for the next three seasons. The Royals also seem to prefer proven major league pitchers to top prospects. Am I overvaluing Gordon and undervaluing Upton or are we just assuming (with some good reason) that it would be easier to fleece Dayton Moore than Kevin Towers?
I would absolutely love it if the Braves found a way to get Gordon. I think he has room to grow in the power department still, and as you mentioned he gets on base at a good clip.
Care to throw out some trade proposals. Everything you said mostly makes sense, but you didn’t mention what the Royals will be looking for, and also what the Braves have that matches up with that.
The Royals need pitching at or close to the ML level (the Royals are pretty much ready to contend now, they’re only held back by atrocious pitching). We’ve got Delgado, but if we trade him along with some secondary prospects (gilmartin, spruill) then we start to have a bit of a problem at the back end of our own rotation.
Youre right, It will definitely take a good amount to get Gordon. There is a good possibility the Royals are in “win now” mode and other teams match up better. That’s definitely a route and the Braves may not be the best fit.
Take this quote from Royals/BP writer Rany Jazayerli, “As a friend pointed out, virtually every significant move the Royals have made under Dayton Moore was not leaked beforehand.” It’s hard to pin down the Royals moves or their direction. They’ve been known from taking the unconventional route.
I would assume their first want in “win now” mode is Medlen. I really find it hard to see the FO dealing him for anything. Next, is probably Mike Minor which really It depends on how much they believe in the post ASB Minor (2.16 ERA, 87 IP). I’m a believer in Minor so I may have a bias in what he could fetch.
I still think the Royals still could be a couple years from contending. They were 18 games under .500 and 16 back in the division, a lot to make up. They do have a strong young core, many under team control until at least 2016 (Myers/Perez/Cain/Hosmer/Escobar) In that case, Teheran/Delgado/Gilmartin come into play because all would be ML ready now/soon and would fit that same sweetspot as the position players.
There is no hurt in calling and asking about Gordon because he does fit well. If the Royals do think they have a strong chance to contend in a couple years, I think the Braves could matchup well.
Thanks for the reply Andrew, and as I did not mention it before, welcome to the writing staff and I look forward to reading your work.
Hypothetically I’ll just throw out that I would trade Minor or Delgado, + Gilmartin, Betancourt and Peraza.
I think that they are most likely at least a couple years from contention as well. To me though their front office does not see it that way. I think this is highlighted by the Santana trade and the Guthrie signing. Why would a team that feels it is a couple of years from contention give Santana $10M over one year and Guthrie $25M over 3 years? So if they feel that they are going to be able to compete this year why then would they trade their highest WAR producer in Gordon (5.9WAR for Gordon next closest is Moustakas at 3.5WAR.)
If I was a Royals fan I would want them to keep Gordon and Myers. I’d also want them to acquire a frontline starter through the use of other assests. So looking at sickels list from last year they have 3 B+ prospects and Myers who is an A-. I would think that the trade they make for a frontline starter would include the likes of Butler, cain or jarrod dyson, and/or one or more of their B+ prospects. Just my two cents for whatever they are worth.
He would be a great assett for the Braves, but I don’t see him coming cheap. Might have to part with Medlin or Minor to get him. I don’t think KC is trying to dump salaries, and they prefered to trade their prospects for Lester. Have you heard anything that would support KC willing to trade Gordon for a package of good minor league prospects?
BTW, welcome Andrew, I appreciate your intelligent writing and understanding of the game.
Welcome to CAC Andrew. I would love to see Gordon in a Braves uniform. From what it seems, he would fill every hole that the team needs; left fielder, leadoff hitter with good obp, solid defense, decent power, and good power to the gaps. I would be pretty happy trading Delgado/Teheran (dont really have a preference because I believe they will both be solid major league starters but never become true ‘aces’ but very good #2 starters) and someone at the level of Ahmed or another non-pitching prospect. I dont think the Braves will give up both Delgado/Teheran and Gilmartin/spruill. If we get Gordon, we have a very solid outfield for the next 3-5 years, which you cant ask for anything better, especially with few top outfield prospects in our system
Welcome to the club Andrew! Have always enjoyed reading your thoughts. Great analytical first post too! Hadn’t even considered Gordon till now.
The royals are currently looking to get either A: veteran high end starting pitching or B: cost controlled younger pitching, but that have already shown to be at least average in the bigs with potential for more. You could argue that Delgado and Teheran fill the second slot, but they both have small sample sizes to justify sending either Gordon or Myers. A deal for either of those guys would look a lot more like Teheran AND Delgado/Minor/Medlen plus spruill/gilmartin and maybe even an ahmed or salcedo. We’re talking about a 6 year cost controlled power hitting corner OF with discipline or a defensive wizard with great OBP skill and decent power on a team friendly 3 year deal. Neither one is gunna come cheap. I’m in a strange position of being a royals and braves fan but I can’t see a lot of ways a trade between the two would work out for both sides. I would say Wren has a much better trade history than Dayton though, as he’s made some bad decisions as of late, but this would be a colossal level fail if he doesn’t get a huge package for either guy.
Good post Andrew! If the Braves were to use free agency, what do you think a WAR estimate would be for the value of those options (Ross, Victorino, Ludwick, Swisher, etc)?
Given that the Braves would have to lose Delgado/Teheran for Gordon, do you think that Gordon is worth the trade if the price for these other players would just be marginally more?
I like Swisher the best in the group. His offensive numbers the past 3 seasons are similar to Gordon. Swisher with more power. Gordon is much better in the field and on the bases. Swisher can also hit from both sides of the plate.
Victorino also switch hits, but struggles v. lefties. I think his best days are behind him. Scouts say the bat speed is slowing. Ross struggles v. righties and his H/R splits may suggest he thrived off being in Fenway.
Don’t think Ludwick can sustain last years numbers. Getting older and is below avg. in the field. Don’t see him as a good option.
To answer your “WAR estimate” question (fWAR)… Swisher 3-4, Victorino 2-3, Ross 1-2, Ludwick 1.
Great points everyone…one thing everyone has to think of is if we trade Delgado for Gordon that trade would fir both teams and that would open the braves up to start Teheran until Beachy comes back or sign a lesser free agent aka Kevin Millwood. but my guess is the braves will indeed cave in and trade Simmons to Arizona for Justin Upton and maybe sign a Veteran free agent 3B and move Prado to SS. he did very well there.
i think Frank Wren so far this off season is doing an excellent job. I wanted Hansen gone. he frustrated the you know what out of me. he wouldnt adjust and giving up homers at the most wrong time. i love what we got in return Walden is an awesome reliever. and was happy Jurrjiens is gone. now is the time for the young guns to step up. and if he gets Justin we will have the best outfield and bullpen in baseball, and a very solid rotation. now i still think we should trade Uggla to Seattle or Texas and look for a second basemen.
may i say also that we need to sign bench help and low cost one at that. i would love for us to sign Scott Hairston and Ryan Rayburn and Mark DeRosa and maybe henry Blanco until Mac comes back.
Thank you everyone.. I appreciate the warm welcome!
Great opening volley, Andrew. Welcome aboard!!!
I agree that Gordon would be a good addition, but I worry about depleting our stock of starting pitchers too much. For all of Hanson’s issues, we now have one fewer major league caliber pitcher on the staff and trading Teheran or Delgado would basically leave us with Sean Gilmartin as our sixth starter until Beachy gets back. Furthermore, our starters are mostly young, and our one real innings eater is Hudson, who at his age should not be relied upon to go 200 plus innings. Furthermore, while all of our starters are major league caliber, I’m not sure if we can assume anyone is better than a #3 starter. (Obviously, there’s potential, especially if Medlen continues to pitch like he did last season, to be better than that, but I don’t think we can count on it.) The combination of no high end starters and a lack of depth (if we lose one of Delgado/Teheran or Gilmartin/Spruill) is a scary thought. Now, if we use some of the money we’d save by getting Gordon instead of, say, Swisher, to get another pitcher, that’s one thing. But if we go into spring training with a rotation of Hudson, Medlen, Minor, Maholm, and Teheran, with only Gilmartin and eventually Beachy as insurance, I’d be worried. At this point, provided we find a decent left fielder, I think our hitting, fielding, and relief pitching will all be improved next year. But if one thing manages to sink the Braves, I do think it will be our starting pitching.
In contrast to past offseason’s, Frank Wren said this year he was willing to trade a top pitching prospect for a position player who would add value to the Braves. That led most observers to conclude one of two open spots – CF and LF – would be filled via a trade. I fell into that camp. But the trade of Hansen has changed my mind. We no longer have a surplus of major league ready starters for opening day (unless you count Teheran which I don’t). A trade for Gordon, or top prospect like Myers, would likely require one of our current starters plus a prospect(s). One injury to a current starter after such a trade and we are pulling from the Gwinnett rotation. I’m sure Wren’s past reluctance to trade from the pitching surplus stems, in part, from having to rely on Jorge Campillo, Jo-Jo Reyes, Charlie Morton and JJ after injuries decimated the rotation in 2008.
For this reason, and the extra $4M from the Hanson trade, I expect LF to be filled by a FA that won’t cost a draft pick.
Gordon would be spectacular in the Braves lineup with his high average and on-base percentage. But his cost may be too steep. One guy I have always been high on is Shin-Soo Choo. Choo is a year and a half older than Gordon and will be a free agent after this year, but offensively he is very very similar to Gordon. He has around a 10% BB rate and 20% k rate just as Gordon and he posted a .283/.373/.441 slash line in 2012. Choo also posts around 20 stolen bases per year, which makes him even more valuable in the leadoff spot, along with the high career OBP. On the downside, the past two years he has been sub-par defensively. Personally, I think we could give up less for Choo, because he isn’t exactly a household name like Gordon and he is going into his last year of his contract, and still get the same production out of the leadoff spot.
I agree that Alex Gordon would be a tremendous addition, I don’t quite buy him as a lead off man and I would love to see Simmons be able to fill that role but really that seems like an all around upward bump for the team.
As far as who we trade to get Gordon, I would honestly deal Teheran before Delgado. Delgado has shown some great potential while going against Major League hitters, Teheran has struggled in nearly every inning he has pitched during his sparse call ups. I don’t think the numbers are there in any of his appearances whether they be standard numbers or the saber numbers. Obviously last year was a huge step backwards for him and I know hes young, but I really am starting to be concerned over that lack of success at the big league level. It doesn’t seem Teheran’s secondary pitches have developed the way they were projected to and Delgado seems more major league ready at this moment. And since we are going to need one of the two to pitch every 5th day probably for the first half of the season, I take Delgado. Of course this is all subjective but I generally think just watching the two Delgado has the stronger set of secondary offerings and will actually turn out to be the better pitcher, I haven’t seen much out of Teheran aside from his fastball. What do you guys think?
After the beating Teheran took all of 2012, I can’t see any reason why Delgado shouldn’t be the favorite to win the 5th starter job.
” Teheran has struggled in nearly every inning he has pitched during his sparse call ups.”
That’s not true. Teheran’s last start for Atlanta was pretty dominant-either one or no hits-until he hit a wall in the 5th.
Teheran is getting slaughtered in Winter Ball…I’d jump at the trade if KC asked for Teheran and one other prospect not named Spruill, Gilmartin, Bethancourt, Sims, Wood or Graham.
Teheran is a major shoulder injury waiting to happen…and he’s continued to regress…
Really? What information do you have to back up that he’s a major shoulder injury about to happen?
Is it wrong that I’m kinda warming up to the idea of Juan Francisco being the everyday 3B? Of course, with the stipulation that he shows up to Spring Training at approximately 210-220lbs. He’s been extremely consistent in his minor league career, putting up very good numbers offensively. I saw real potential in him this past season, especially if he can shorten his swing.
Just a thought… debates are encouraged.
I agree that the idea of Francisco at 3B, perhaps in a platoon situation, is under-appreciated by many. I ran some numbers platooning with Cody Ross (also not a fan favorite) and I came up with 35-40 HRs and OPS approaching .900. It would make Ross the most expensive platoon player in history, but if it gets us to the World Series, so what?
Obviously, Gordon, Myers, or Justin Upton are preferred as everyday players. But before I depleted our stockpile of top prospects, I would consider Francisco, perhaps in a platoon situation.
I’d assume that is still an option on the table. All reports suggest he’s working hard with his personal trainer and doing well. In 84 AB’s he has a slash line of .321/.376/.534. Its a small sample from a winter league, but it is a .900 OPS is at least an encouraging sign. It also up’s his trade value.
I have been thinking this about Francisco as well. Unless the team decides to go with someone like Cody Ross and deploy a three-man platoon with Prado playing every day between 3B and LF and Ross and Francisco splitting time, Francisco’s skills won’t be utilized very well. His youth and talent suggest he should be playing regularly somewhere, and in any case his approach makes him particularly poorly suited for a pinch hitting role. I suppose that you could argue that Prado’s versatility would allow Francisco to pick up spot starts anytime that a regular other than McCann and Simmons need some rest, but the team might be better served by either making a commitment or dealing him. I really wonder if the Diamondbacks might be intrigued by a deal built around Francisco, Delgado, O’Flaherty, and Ahmed…
I don’t understand why people on this blog are so open to trading EOF – you have uncertainty with everyone else not named Kimbrel – yes, Avilan seems to be a rising star – but Venters was shaky last year – what if he is more of the same in 2013? Walden has had injury issues before and his delivery isn’t doing his arm any favors….EOF is the last guy (other than Kimbrel) that we should be trading from the bullpen.
Jonny Venters wasn’t normal Jonny Venters, but he was still a pretty good pitcher last season. 3.76 FIP isn’t horrible, and his BABIP was about 70 points higher than his career average. He also had a HR/FB over 24%, his career average is around 10%. He struggled with mechanics last year, and ended up settling in pretty nicely. The Braves know what they can expect from Venters, and even seemingly at his worst, he’s a solid pitcher. His K% and BB% were right around his normal numbers, so once those other numbers level out, he should go back to being a great reliever. Considering Walden bounces back from injury (admittedly a big if) and with Avilan and Gearrin for match-ups, we should have no problem handling late innings.
As someone pointed out earlier, would it be better to have EOF and a Cody Ross type LF, or hand EOF’s 60 innings to Walden/Avilan/Gearrin and get an everyday LF? The benefits don’t stop there, however, as EOF would probably bring back a big return including prospects, hopefully position players where the Braves farm is lacking.
Oh, and I forgot to add that this would allow the Braves to pocket most of their remaining allotted salary and use it to lock up some combination of Prado, Heyward, and Medlen longterm.
I read on Baseball-Reference that Gordon’s last year is a team and not a player option. Something to look in to.
Good article over at the Kansas City Star this morning (Dec. 2) with a lot of interesting quotes from the front office. Seems like other teams would be better potential fits in their search of a frontline starter. Also, Royals may not be listening as much as previously reported.
http://www.kansascity.com/2012/12/02/3944697/royals-search-for-another-starting.html
I also think the Royals would trade Mike Moustakas before they traded Alex Gordon….
Now that BJ Upton is signed I think FW could afford to sit back a little and let the market play out while keeping the remaining payroll space intact. If nothing develops from this point onwards and we go into spring training with J. Francisco given a shot to start as our 3B and leaving Prado in LF, it probably could work out. In essence I agree with Shaunson’s comment.
I wouldn’t mind if FW locked up a solid bench in this early part of the off season either. So far we have Laird, Janish, Pastornicky? Would like to see Reed Johnson back RH bat off the bench as well as our 4th OF.
On the subject of EOF, the $4mil potential saving + return of prospects should be considered seriously. The escalating cost of EOF is probably not sustainable in the long run and if we could get value back right now we should consider it.
Great write up. Personally, though, I like Choo better. Only one yr left, so he should come cheaper. Production would be about the same. ATL could reasses at season’s end where they stand with Gattis and Francisco and have money off the books for extensions to McCann and Prado.
Choo has always been in the back of my mind too. It’s tough because it would be a one year rental and put the team back in the same situation next season. Being a Boras guy, high chance he doesn’t resign. Seems the Indians have set the trade value bar high, for now. Would keep an eye on him though.
Extension for McCann? I hope that was a typo…
1 bad season and you don’t like McCann? He was hurt most of the year at that…I understand if he comes back this year and isn’t the same player, but as of right now I still want to extend McCann, most definitely!!
Also Dayton Moore’s own contract has 1-2 years left I believe. That being said, he’s under pressure to put together a winning team, not trade top players for someone like Delgado or Teheran.
I agree with Viva – they’ll want an established ML starter for a guy of Gordon’s caliber.
Andrew – welcome! I took a few classes at HPU along the way. I look forward to seeing more of your work.
Honestly, if I’m Frank ….I first look to salary dump Paul maholm 6.5 for anything at all, throw us a hard throwing bullpen arm. 2nd gauge EOF market knowing his value has only s only trade him for a Top notch prospect or two.his 4mill is bargain 4 his consistent work so whether trade him or not can’t go
Lure Zack greinke to town for around 16 mill per season……. Start Juan Francisco @ 3 base, Prado in left field. Re sign reed Johnson and shift Prado if Juan struggles versus
Still believe c Rasmus would be a steal, still had huge upside. Toronto could b fleeced. Let’s go FW. week
Rasmus? Ugh.
I don’t think getting rid of Maholm is a good idea. He is a good pitcher with a very team friendly 6.5 million dollar salary. I am still on board with trading EOF only b/c we will be losing him this year, probably, due to salary demands. If we do not get much back for EOF, then we keep him and just lose him at the end of the year.
*after this year*
By that logic, we lose Maholm at the end of this year too, we better trade him so we get something for him.
Look, sometimes you lose free agents without compensation. It happens. I just don’t see the return being anything close to the value that EOF has in the bullpen. And I think your $4 mil number for him is a bit high. I think it will be closer to $3 mil, but that’s just nitpicking. As I said on the other post (which was blasted, but whatever), who fills out the rest of your pen? You have 2 reliable guys (Kimbrel and Avilan), 2 guys with questionable arms (Venters and Walden), 1 guy who you can’t put in against a lefty, ever (Gearrin) and 1 guy who is good for mop-up duty and should never be put in a close game (Martinez). 2 years ago, Fredi overused the crap out of O’VentBrel because he couldn’t put in anyone else in a close/late situation. You want a bullpen of 6-7 guys that you can put in for nearly any situation (minus your “situational” guys who are especially good at getting out batters that hit from a certain side of the plate). You don’t want 2-3 guys who you are hesitant to put in when you’re up by a run or two….
I don’t think anyone on this blog expects the same return from Maholm as EOF. Also, we could potentially re-sign Maholm next year to another team friendly deal. Let us be honest, he is not a #1 or #2 starter, but is a very average #3 or #4. Paying 6ish million a year for that is a good deal, paying EOF 4 million a year isn’t smart for this team. Different circumstances for these two players.
EOF is making $4mil THIS year. That number will be a lot higher on the free agent market. He will not be in a Braves uni next year, and we have lots of capable arms in our pen. EOF is great, don’t get me wrong. But 60 innings is not enough time to build up value equal to the kind of return he could net. The idea is to sell high, and that’s before you even get to the leftover talent in the Atlanta pen.
Avilan/Gearrin are almost strictly matchup guys. Walden/Venters/Kimbrel will be the 7/8/9 guys, with the specialists mixed in.
C-Mart isn’t a great option, but my opinion is, if he’s pitching, it doesn’t matter that he’s pitching.
Gilmartin may be able to contribute to the big team this year. A lefty with a low 90s fastball, plus plus changeup and decent third offering. Good control. Sound familiar?
Spruill and Graham may have proven themselves as bullpen options, though that won’t be early in the season.
Also keep in mind, the offseason isn’t over. FW could likely sign a good reliever with relative ease, or require one in a trade.
The thing is that relievers are really volatile and comparable value can be found much more cheaply with savvy free agent deals. EOF is good but honestly, teams desperate for relief pitching could easily overpay for him. We have a deep enough bullpen now to make up for the 1-1.5 WAR hit that giving up EOF would take.
Assuming this is our starting five at the beginning of next year.
Hudson
Maholm
Medlen
Minor
Delgado/Teheran
Others to consider:
Beachy -> after AS Break
Gilmartin
I just don’t see the Braves getting rid of either Delgado or Teheran with Maholm as a free agent next year. Would be risky. Perhaps Gordon is the type of player to make that risk for.
I would rather keep Teheran AND Delgado and sign a 3B/LF bench guy who can really hit lefties. Hold onto that money for an emergency / trade deadline / future extensions. We had about 15 options for the rotation last year and only 2 of them were still in it at the end of the season. It’s a gamble to hold onto all of your cards (Teheran/Delgado), but the odds are increased of having at least one of them pan out to expectations than trading one and depending on the other.
I’ll finally get off of my “start juan francisco” soapbox when Wren inevitably signs a left fielder.
I think if that’s the route FW wanted to go, he would have done something already. Jonny Gomes was probably the best of the lefty mashing LF, and he just signed a 2 year, $10mil deal with the Red Sox, and they even plan on STARTING him. That would be a good deal for a platoon player (which he should be) but I think there are so many affordable options that fit the platoon bill, that FW would have signed one by now. It seems he wants an everyday LF, and one that can lead off. Still scratching my head over the Span deal…
Nah.. i think $5 mil a year is way too much for a guy who would play only about 25% of the time. I think if Wren goes that route it’ll be for about half. Plus, I’m sure Gomes wants to play for a contract after the one he just signed, as he’ll sure to be easily sending balls over the green monster.
Andruw,
Welcome aboard. Hopefully your enthusiasm will generate frequent articles and discussions on this board.
I believe that the Braves have a great LF in Prado and see no reason to move him to third base.
That being said, Fransisco is doing everything that Braves management and coaches asked of him over the winter. He could be a very productive third baseman for the Braves this coming year.
If trading Maholm brought in a couple of high potential position prospects and allowed the Braves to sign Greinke
then the Braves are set for the next several years without having to trade Tehren until his value goes up with good outings this spring
One problem. What about Maholm screams high potential position prospects? The only real asset he possesses is a friendly contract, but only for this year. Certainly even a team in desperate need of pitching wouldn’t give up much for Maholm. We are lucky to have had him last season and lucky to have had the opportunity to exercise his friendly option. But Maholm’s value is purely on the Braves’ roster.
Spence;
I do not agree. Maholm is a good, proven, major leaugue pitcher. For a team in dire need of a #3 or #4 pitcher to round out their staff, this year, Maholm could bring a couple of good prospects (1A or 2A).
The important thing is that it frees up 6.5 mill to add to the Braves remaining money to strike a deal for Greinke. I feel that Greinke would deal with the Braves at slightly less than market because he likes the Braves.
Not talking a deep discount but a friendly discount (6 years at $20mill)
McCann comes off next year at $13mill, Hudson comes off at $9 mill. Bettancourt comes in at leaugue minimum. One of the Braves minor league pitchers takes Hudson’s spot at major league minimum and gives the Braves a chance to extend Prado, Heyward, Kimbrel and Freeman.
You are not going to get A level prospects for Maholm. Period. Who is desperate for pitching? The Red Sox and Royals? Do you think they would give up Bogaerts or Myers for a 3-4 rotation guy? For one year? That simply is not going to happen, ever.
Also that’s a big risk if you’re thinking we send McCann walking after this season. As of now, the jury is still out on Simmons at the plate. His glove is obviously too good to warrant an everyday job, but we don’t know if he’ll hit. I think most of us expect he’ll be our 8 hitter, if not forced into the leadoff spot due to no better options. Bethancourt may not hit either. That’s a huge risk where we potentially concede our 7-9 lineup spots daily so we can overpay for a guy that will pitch every 5th game.
*his glove is too good NOT to warrant an everyday job.
See above
This would leave a pitching staff in 2012 of Greinke, Medlin, Minor, Beachy and one of Tehren, Delgado or any other minor leaguer that suddenly finds himself in 2013.
Oops,
A pitching staff in 2014 of
I would offer up EOF Salcedo Uggla and Rasmus to KC for Cain Gordon . Move Cain to LF and leadoff spot in the lineup and use Gordon maybe in the 2 hole and move Prado batting third.
Cain
Gordon
Prado
Freeman
Upton
Heyward
McCann
Simmons
DUDE. STOP. PLEASE.
What, is Ryan Braun unavailable?
Bobby, how about this instead:
Hamilton
Braun
Fielder
Cabrera
Tulowitzki
Cano
Kemp
Mauer
I think this team would be good and we could probably trade Constanza for Tulo and Gattis for Fielder straight up. Hamilton likes the way the buildings look in Atlanta so he will probably come cheap. The CDC is said to be developing a new kind of PED for Braun, and Kemp likes our hats. FW would be dumb not to explore these options.
Ooooh ooohh ooohh! We could resign JC Boscan and then flip him, Hamilton, and J-Terd for Mike Trout. We would include some Camel Cash in the deal so the Angels will pick up Hamilton’s entire contract. OH MAN and think of the 2014 trade possibilities with this lineup!
Spence’s email has entirely too much clarity and proper punctuation.
*post, not email.
That’s what I get for trying to be demeaning.
Second baseman no longer needed with mega 4 man outfield.
Teheran / Delgado isn’t going to do it for Gordon. The Royals will not settle for less than an established pitcher for such a valuable player who still has three years left on his contract. Nor are they looking to add prospects to their system. That means you will need to talk about Minor / Medlen to start.
Apparently the Rockies asked for Mike Minor for Dexter Fowler?
Would you do it?
I think I would since Gilmartin is his carbon copy and easily projectable. Though after trading Hanson, I would hate to add another question mark to our early season rotation..
No thanks.
Agree with vivabeta, I wouldn’t make that deal. Minor looked superb in the 2nd half. I like Fowler, but his splits make him a bit of a question mark. Of course, Minor is questionable too (will he be the 2nd half pitcher or revert to his struggles of the first half?), but I would be hesitant to deplete the rotation anymore for someone of Fowler’s caliber.
Also, I would assume that Maholm won’t be on the 2014 staff. And Hudson isn’t getting any younger. Yes there’s Gilmartin, but the plan would be for him to take Maholm’s spot. If we trade Minor that just means we’ll have to go find another free agent starter. We just lost two of our (projected) top starters from last season. Two guys that were supposed to anchor the rotation for a long time. The last thing we want to do is trade away one of the current potential top of the rotation guys, unless it’s an amazing holy shit deal.
I wouldn’t trade anything for Fowler. No thanks. I don’t even think I’d have done Tommy Hanson for him.
Thoughts of Ellsbury. Maholm, Uggla and second teir prospect. Move Prado back to second, Fransisco to 3rd and ellsbury to LF. Sox get power hitter in Uggla and uggla pounds the Green Monster
and the invasion of the DOB blog is complete…..
do some of you people know what WAR means? ever argued about the value of FIP over xFIP? Have you ever pounded your keyboard in disgust as someone touted a mediocre fielder by saying they were “Gold Glove Caliber” and used fielding% as their evidence?
NO?
then you are in the wroooong place.
“ever argued about the value of FIP over xFIP?”
Got to admit, I’ve never done this.
But I have condescendingly referred to our manager as Frediot? Can that substitute?
Also, I’ve placed question marks where they don’t belong. Does that help or hurt my credentials?
lol, you know of whom I am referring to. The deranged trade proposals, the video game type of ideas, the usage of batting avg to make an argument…. the Dobbers as I have come to call them.
I wouldn’t have minded giving Jason Bay a one-year incentive based deal to go with the Prado-Francisco super platoon. Obviously he’s had his injury problems but he hit lefties in 2011 (small sample size, yes). It looks like Seattle is signing him but it seems like it would have been a low-risk, high reward potential move. I can’t imagine anyone else must be in on him since SafeCo is hardly the place for a hitter to go to rebuild your free agent worth.
ahh to hell with it, call up Theo and see what he wants for Soriano…. he had a good 2011, and if we could get him for under $8m AAV for the last 2 years, it would be worth giving up a decent package for….
Quiet week but maybe FW laid the foundation 4 upcoming trade. Willingham would be nice 4 his combo of power and only 7 mill contract but I still believe c rasmus would be a steal if Toronto dealt him home to GA. Wouldn’t cost much in a trade, his value is lower than normal and he is the real deal 5 tool ball player with great upside .I’ve witnessed his play in person @Russell county high School. tremendous potential
Or bring back Kelly Johnson to play left field and leadoff. Can’t hurt that KJ could go 20/20 and I’m not talking about Barbara Walters neither.I’m talking homers and stolen bases from the lead off Spot
Or just let Juan Francisco show mlb his mammoth Power and he might actually surprise some people with Kung Fu Panda deuce. Just keep him away from all waffle house
Eric O’Flaherty to Tigers (need relief pitching) who send Rick Porcello to KC (needs starting pitching) who send Alex Gordon to Braves. Tigers will probably also want a pitching prospect.