Revisiting Dan Uggla and His Contract
December 28, 2012 at 12:12 pm by Andrew Sisson under Atlanta Braves
When Dan Uggla was traded to the Braves in October of 2010, many viewed the trade as a “steal”. The club was able to acquire a middle of the order bat for a utility type player and a replaceable left-handed reliever. The following January, he signed a five-year extension, which at the time wasn’t necessarily viewed as an overwhelmingly good or bad deal, but a scary one.
Uggla is now two years into his contract. In those years, he has been all over the spectrum. He was hotter than hot during his 33-game hit streak in 2011 and colder than cold during the second half of last season when he was ultimately benched. Overall, he hasn’t recreated enough of his numbers with the Marlins to justify a $62M contract.
I’m going to use the $/fWAR model in an attempt to quantify his past two seasons and then project his value going forward. Hopefully this will help put Uggla’s time in Atlanta into context.
We’ll start with his first two seasons in Atlanta. Uggla was a 2.5 and 3.5 win player, per FanGraphs, in 2011 and 2012. In both those years the market paid ~$4.5M per win. These combined 6 wins have been worth $27M to the club. Using $5M $/fWAR for 2013, and a 5% inflation rate going forward (could be higher with influx of new national TV money, but won’t change the end result much), I project he will have to be worth another 6.5 wins over the next three seasons to justify the contract.
Big picture, Uggla has been worth just under half his total value during the first 40% of the contract. As in many multi-year contracts, especially when signing players past their peak years, much of the value is provided upfront in exchange for a drop off in production during the latter years. This is no different with Uggla. The problem is that he is likely to see a continued natural aging decline going forward, but carries some additional risk of a sharper decline, which we may already be seeing, because of his physical makeup and skill set.
Uggla is essentially a one-tool player, with his power tool being above average. Lets remember, he wasn’t a top prospect and was once selected in the Rule 5 Draft. However, his power tool turned out to be significant enough that it carried him to becoming one of the best offensive performers at his position and overshadowed any weaknesses in other facets of his game. Unfortunately, it seems that his power has either vanished or is entered a significant decline. In 2012, he posted a career low .164 ISO and horrifying .384 SLG%, while hitting under 25 HR for the first time in his career. He was able to maintain league average offensive success in large part to a sizeable jump in his walk rate. His total value may also have been inflated in 2012 by defensive numbers, which were well above career levels. This could either be normal variation in advanced defensive metrics, better positioning on the field or Uggla was in fact a better defender at age 32 that he was during the prime of his career. I believe it is a mix of the first two scenarios and it is reasonable to suggest he regresses back towards career levels. Again, he is not an athletic player and this will only hamper his value as he ages.
The table below is how I project him going forward during the next three seasons.
I would estimate his average value going forward to be around 1.5 fWAR per season. This would leave his total value to the club about $12M under what his contract was signed for. Uggla would have had to produce about 60% of his total value during the first 40% of his contract in order for anyone to feel reasonably good about the remaining life of the deal. In my opinion, he could very well be a replacement level player by the end of his contract.
Could he exceed those expectations? Sure. If he continues to walk at a good rate, cuts down on the number infield fly balls and regains some of his power he could prolong his value as a player. Personally, I wouldn’t take that bet. Having an increasingly high IFFB% is a key sign because it could signal his upper cut swing is becoming more severe. He is trying to force power out a swing that once came more naturally. David also had a great take and gave his explanation for an increased number of infield fly balls back in July.
Looking at some recent players who were relatively short in stature and produced similar power numbers, it is hard to find many comparisons. Players like Miguel Tejada and Ivan Rodriguez were athletically gifted and provided a great deal of value on defense. Others like Gary Sheffield, Jeff Bagwell and Brian Giles were far superior hitters with tremendous bat speed. The only other similar players I can think of off the top of my head are Matt Stairs and Raul Mondesi. Stairs was able to DH, attempt to play outfield and pinch hit, while keeping his power late into his 30’s. Aside from one season, Mondesi’s power steadily trailed off after his age 26 season and was out of baseball after his age 34 season with the Braves. For what it’s worth, Uggla had the highest K% and lowest contact rate in the group. He was below replacement level for much of his 30’s. There is never going to be a perfect comp, but please feel free to discuss any other players that come to mind in the comment section.
While Uggla has indeed outperformed what he has been paid the first two seasons, he needed to outperform by a greater margin to make up for what will likely be a final two or three years of underperformance. It is hard to knock the front office for this deal though. They were able to acquire a player in a steal of a trade, at an offensively weak position, who consistently played 150+ games and had a nice string of 30+ HR seasons. Trading Uggla seems unrealistic at this point in time. Eventually it may happen and the Braves will have to eat salary. If the Braves still have money left over to spend this offseason, I wonder if they would entertain the idea of reworking his deal, making him more tradable and less of a payroll liability down the road.
The Braves took a gamble that he would be able to produce enough in the first couple seasons to make up the final years of the deal. That hasn’t happened and likely means the club ends up on the wrong side of the deal. The book isn’t closed by any means, but it very hard to see this contract working out in the Braves favor when it is.
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Finally some baseball discussion. Good post and very relevant to Brave’s future. Do you know who helps him with his swing? Does he utilize Walker? Is he open to help and does he have good work habits? If he continues to decline, and they could get something for him, Prado would be best used at 2B.
Overall, great article.
On the subject of DUggla’s defense, I’d have to say that the eyeball test confirms a significant improvement over the last two seasons versus his time in Miami.
Uggla was always known for two particular types of fielding problems: bad throws to first and booting ground balls. He’s spent a lot of time working on ground balls and the eyeball test seems to indicate a real improvement. His error rates seem to confirm.
As for the bad throws, keep in mind that he’s now throwing to a pretty good picker at 1B, where in Miami he was throwing to a dubious cast of characters who were often 1B/3B/LF/RF guys.
Just as importantly, over at SS, he’ll now be teaming with Andrelton Simmons instead of the far less capable Hanley Ramirez/Alex Gonzalez/Tyler Pastornicky/Jack Wilson, a veritable who’s who of poor range MLB shortstops. In addition to having less range to cover, he should benefit substantially from increased DP opportunities. I think his numbers in 2012 demonstrated exactly that, even with sure-handed but DP challenged Paul Janish contributing a lot of playing time.
Alex and Wilson were pretty competent defenders. The others listed not so much. I do however remember hearing about the poor field at the Marlins old stadium. I think it might have contributed to Dan seeming A LITTLE worse than he actually was.
I understand a decline is expected in the 31-35 year old bracket. I think the only way that he is dragged down to the depths of basement production that you are talking about is if his playing time significantly decreases.
I like the article, but I disagree with your production estimates in future years. No one player comes to mind to compare him to, he is a little unique. I think he took a significant step forward this last year with his patience – he isn’t a patient player by nature – he said it himself last season when he was talking about being brought here to hit, not take walks…
Out of time to finish this thought
Hope like hell he has a good first half and trade him. Be willing to eat half of that contract though.
No one wants to perform more than Uggla himself. I’m looking forward to a rebirth this year, similar to Heyward last year. One can dream, anyway…
I’m not sure he’ll have to battle for PT, since we really don’t have anyone to play 2B. Prado is seemingly ensconced in Left, pending any further deals.
Wren should give the Dodgers a call and offer Uggla for Mark Ellis and Dee Gordon. The Dodgers love star players (even after their prime) and Wren could convince them they are lacking a star at second base. It sounds crazy, but we are talking about the Dodgers after all. Oh well, at least I can dream.
A comparable former Brave to Dan Uggla, at least in my mind, would be Jeff Blauser. Certainly not a perfect match, but they have similarities between them.
Would the roided version of Brett Boone be comparable? I was young, but I remember he was one of a few 2B to hit for power, and don’t particularly remember his defense, which means that he and Uggla share the ‘forgettable’ defense tag.
Actually, just poked around Fangraphs and compared them. Lifetime, Uggla is through and through a better hitter than Boone. But Mariners Boone is very similar to Uggla.
While I do have to admit that it is obvious that uggla has underperformed, I am still a big fan and hope the braves hang onto him through the contract. Defensively he is far better than expected (even though that isn’t why we got him). Offensively he has been close enough as advertised for me (minus the HR total for last season)…. He is only about 0.02 below his career batting avg… I fully expect him to turn the page this year and give a lil better avg and a few more HR… Most the of the haters out there never consider that he has been one of the only right hand bats and the ONLY legitimate right handed power threat for the last couple years allowing most pitchers to pitch around him or give him nothing good to hit (hence walk rate up)… Plug uggla into a lot of RH heavy lineups and he would be lethal…
Uggla was also always a positive defender away from Miami (that old park was apparently terrible for infielders) so I think that his defense was hampered a bit and he might just be the defender we are seeing now.
His power seemed to have been stymied last year by his decision to take more walks. guy hits 36 in 2011 and then 19 in 2012…. doesn;t seem to be a decline as much as a result of a new approach (or an anomaly).
I am of the opinion that 2013 is his key year. Does he returns to his usual .250/.340/.470 self? Or is the new Uggla a .240/.340/.400 player?
From what I’ve read, the importance of home/road splits on defense are close to zero. Uggla will always be a below average defender because of his lack of lateral range, no matter where he plays.
I think a .230/.330/.415-ish slash would be reasonable in 2013 with a decrease in BB% and slight increase in HR from 2012.
Andrew I think he’s referring to conditions from the humidity and the fact that the park was pretty awful in general, n
I disagree that Uggla changed his swing to compensate for a lack of power. My guess is that Uggla is so strong he could hit the ball out with almost any swing plane, and corrections to his swing could be made.
He strikes me as a player that is far less savy than someone like Chipper, Mac or Heyward, so he is less likely to be able to think his way out of a rocky stretch. In fact, his best appraoch may be to simply not think at all…just go up there, grip it, and rip it.
Uggla was messed up because he is the type of player that gets messed up easily, and will always be streaky because of it. In Miami tams didn’t have to focus on stopping him as much because the Marlins were beatable no matter what Uggla did.
Now teams focus on shutting him down more because the Braves as a whole are harder to beat, and he suffers from these advanced approaches.
He could certainly continue to decline, but it is my opnion that Uggla could just as easily put up a 900 OPS next year.
@NickS Uggla has never had a .900 OPS season, ever. I’m not sure I understand the rest of your logic.
Uggla looks too muscle bound to me. We walks like a body builder. If he were to cut back on the lifting and do more flexiability work and drop a few pounds. His overall game would improve.
This is a pretty asinine comment. Strength and power contribute to swing speed, not flexibility and a slim waist.
hmmmm if that is true then why are all baseball players not built like body builders???? If you think flexiability is not important in a swing (baseball,golf,tennis….) then you and I have not been watching the same sports!
You’re absolutely right, Tom–HAT must’ve not played ball or, if he did, didn’t study the art of hitting intricately. I wish he would use a slightly heavier bat and try not to tinker to much after that. It will help with getting in front of balls and the uppercut. This is NOT the solution to all the problems, but I think it may help him feel a little better and get him in a mental state to approach everything else a little better.
Heavier bat will also ensure he engages his hips and legs and won’t be relying quite so much on the arms.
You only need to be as flexible as is necessary. Can he swing a bat? Yes. Therefore he is flexible enough.
What he needs to work on is being able to repeat the same swing and not change the plane and path of his bat as he swings through the zone.
Go take a look at the difference between 2011 Heyward and 2012 Heyward….one of them (2011) was much more muscular…
Now….tell us again about how strength is more important that flexibility…?
Tom, I have the exact same view. Before last season it was said that he had been working hard i the strength (bodybuilding) department with his brother, and in my eyes that shows in quite a number of awkward swings last season.
A Dan Uggla with the same approach as last year, but with a more flexible upper body would be the late Christmas gift we would appreciate.
One thing we all should have learned in MLB (and the NBA) is you can almost always trade any player no matter how bad the contract or the performance. See for instance Derek Lowe last year. If Wren wants to move Uggla and is willing to include some money and not take back much of value in players, he can almost certainly find some AL team who would be willing to take him on to play 2B and DH.
Right just like anyone can be cut all you have to do is eat the contract… The point of the article was to see what value has remaining and compare it to what he is owed.
The Braves ate 2/3 of Lowes contract but Uggla is a different story. If the numbers from this article hold up the next three years of the contract Uggla would be undervalued by a total of about $16M over the next three years. So it seems like the only way they move him is by eating less then 40% of the remaining contract or eat more of the contract and get additional value back (prospects or players)
I agree that Uggla’s aging is part of the problem but closely coupled with it is the fact he played 154 games last year. He often repeated the same glaring errors when hitting, something often seen in players who are tired and something likely to happen more often as one ages if not given more games and/or innings off. When Fredi finally rested him for three games in a row, his hitting improved for a spurt. I think the Braves need to play him in fewer games (maybe 140-145) and bring in Janish and/or Pena to replace Uggla if the Braves lead by 2 after 6 or 7 innings. Along with their strong bullpen and better defence with the subs making this a low risk option (in terms of losing Uggla’s bat), it would rest Uggla more, thereby likely leading to better hitting performance on his part.
On what stats/examples are you basing your assertion that repeating errors is a sign of a tired and/or old player? You use a broad generalization, but I have never heard it before.
we’ll see. I dont think the dude is too inflexible, dumb, or tired to hit the ball the way he’s done most of his career. I think he was simply bad for some stretches of both seasons. Happens with most guys at some point in their career, though Uggla does happen to be a streaky kind of guy anyways.
In general, Uggla’s improvement from 2011 to 2012 came squarely from plate discipline and defensive value as Andrew identified. These are helpful tools but they are not the primary reaons he is on the team.
If his overall power shows further decline in 2013, it will be hard to argue against the clear trend lines that appear to be developing in this area of his game.
his power falloff kinda reminds me of shawn green, who used to play for the dodgers and blue jays. that’s a bad omen because green fell off significantly after age 32, only hitting 25 home runs the next 2 years before exiting the sport
he hit 36 in 2011, 19 in 2012, unless he hits less than 19, I don’t see that we can call 2012 a “trend line” . One yr isn’t a trend
@NickB I’m not sure if you’re comment was for the article or @JeffinNC but hopefully I can clarify.
You’re right, I think there is a good chance he hits more HR in 2013 than he did in 2012. His SLG% will also probably jump back up too, solely based on the fact of how bad it was. A soon to be 33 year old, 5″ 11″ one-tool, power hitter, doesn’t project well going forward when his peripheral stats also suggest he has already begun to lose hitting/power skills.
http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=3442&position=2B&page=0&type=mini (ISO, SLG)
Nick: I think you make a good point here and I agree with your statement that one year does not a trend make. Andrew has expressed where I was coming from in general, so nothing further to add on my end (other than thanks guys).
I think sometimes that the same problems that caused you to take so long to make the majors can also plague you as you decline. If 26-30 are your prime years but u didn’t make it until your prime years, then you may only have your prime years. But if you made it earlier than your prime, then maybe have another year or two of respectable productivity past your prime years. So if you make it at 21 or younger, you may likely be more productive up to 40 years old. If you made it at 23, then you will stop being productive at around 35. But if you make it at 26, you will sorta suck beyond 30. No empirical evidence whatsoever to support this notion but ….. Something to think about
Updated for projection correction.
I say we offer Uggla and Pastornicky to the Cubs for Alfonso Soriano and Tony Campana the cubs take Uggla’s contract off our hands and we take Soriano off theirs
Bobby is back
I believe you may be correct
Andrew, I’m sorry but a have a couple issues with your calculations. If your using a 5% inflation rate than why is your 2011 and 2012 value of $/fWAR the same at $4.5. Did we not have a change in value over that span? Also, if the $/fWAR this season was $4.5. Wouldn’t next year at 5% inflation rate be $4.7 not $5. Isn’t the average inflation rate usually around 3%. Not trying to be a dick but I can can tell I am being one. The other thing is wouldn’t you run a risk assessment instead of your only projections of 2.5/1.5/.5 over the next three years. I guarantee the Braves run a risk assessment. Meaning he may have a 40% chance declining as you say but also a 20% chance of maintaining at 3.5/3/2.5 and a 20% chance of going to hell at 2/1/.5. I’m sorry I’m rude I just had to get that out there.
You aren’t being a dick when you make perfectly valid points.
@Loron good points, hopefully I can clarify where I came from and elaborate.
You are correct, the value did not change over that period (2011 & 2012). Spending in baseball, just like many industries and companies, hit a rough patch after 2008. This is reflected in the $/fWAR figure which I took from past figures of what teams paid per additional win. Figures can be found here.
Spending seems to be picking back up again. With the large amount of contracts being handed out as well as the influx of new National TV money coming in to teams, this figure should make a considerable jump in the coming years. For this season I had to estimate, I used $5M (which may even be low). Similar baseball writers using this model most frequently use $5M, so it seemed fit as a reasonable estimate.
As for the inflation rate… yes, I agree with you that the normal inflation rate is ~3%, baseball is a little different. Again, when looking at previous models with previous analysis of players, the standard was 5%. Also, the average yearly $/fWAR increase from 2002-2012 was also right around 5%. I have seen people use upwards of 12% with some projection though, but 5%, for the time being, feels like a nice comfortable baseline for baseball.
Again, even these numbers may be low with the influx on new TV money. This is good though because the higher the inflation rate and the higher the $/fWAR, the better the contract looks and the less fWAR he will need to accumulate over the life of the contract (if that makes sense). Basically I was assuming the current standard ($5M/5%), but even though these numbers could be higher in the future.
and yes, the probably do run the risk assessment with probabilities. I tried to pick numbers right down the middle so probability of failure/success one way or another was the same. I used a steeper decline rate with Uggla because of his physical makeup and skill set. Again, those are just my personal projections considering all information (I felt were neither too optimistic/pessimistic).
You were’t being a rude or a dick whatsoever. I’m sure many others were probably wondering the same thing. I should have done a better job of explaining that, that’s my fault. Let me know if you have any other questions.
Andrew, thanks for the reply and answering my questions. I love this website and I love this approach of running economics of players against there contracts. I don’t think I have seen analysis like this anywhere before.
@Loron no problem, glad you were able to stop by an enjoy.
Not once did you mention who we gave up to get Uggla! Infantes’ stats were similar to Ugglas in 2012, not to mention he was a very “clutch” hitter. Im getting sick of the Braves trading away every player they have that puts a spark in this team just because their “numbers” are not as good as who they are trading for. Braves have done thisd for years and it has never worked out.
So you don’t want to trade a utility player that I guess provides a “spark…” you would rather keep him than a guy that produces better numbers…..We had years with 72/86/91 wins with Omar and 89/94 with Uggla thus far. Not at all saying he is the cause, but in Uggla’s “horrible” season last year he produced a 2.7 WAR, Infante’s BEST season with us was a 2.9… HIS BEST. The trade was a steal for us, and to say it wasn’t is a complete and utter fallacy.
There’s the old “clutch” stat trumping all others again. I cannot remember people thinking that the trade was a bad deal at the time, we traded a utility player for one of the best NL offensive second basemen at the time. I remember loving the trade.
I fully expect Uggla to be worth right around what he produces over the life of the deal. (and that’s not accounting for inflation).
I think he will turn out to have been around a 3 win player per season during the entire life of his extension. Not great value, but solid and not something to be panicking about. If he was putting up Justin Smoak numbers or something, THEN you panic.
I meant to say “will be worth right around what he costs… ” not “what he produces”… my bad
So now, the Diamondbacks are officially saying they are willing to move Upton and Braves and Mariners are the best fits.
Do you guys think the Braves are going to make a serious run at him?
I think they will try, I wonder if Towers will still be asking wayyy too much though. Guess it depends on how desperate Towers gets. If Upton refuses to waive his no trade clause to Seattle, it may come down to the Rangers and Braves.
If Upton wants to play with his brother bad enough… it could happen
“General Manager Frank Wren told SiriusXM’s Jim Bowden that the club still hasn’t closed the door on Bourn.”
“However, if Bourn does re-sign with the Braves, O’Brien tweeted he’s been told he would play left field.”
Having a speedy guy at the top of the order would be nice, but without his optimal defensive contribution those strikeout and OBP numbers start to look pretty bad.
Putting Bourn in left to appease Upton’s ego would be dumb…
Bourn would be a 3 WAR defender in left, but a maybe 1WAR bat there….
It’s not exactly appeasing someone’s ego like Upton would be a dick if he didn’t want to move to left field. He was just signed as a free agent, not some guy just brought up from Mississippi. You can’t sign a marquee guy and tell him to play a lamer, less challenging position before the first game on the team and he probably wouldn’t have signed with the Braves if he knew he would be moved. That’s a pretty bad practice and if the Braves decided to take that approach, Atlanta would soon become as attractive a free agent landing ground as somewhere like Pittsburgh.
It’s Bourn!!!! The best defender in CF in the game! I get all that other stuff, but I think BJ could suck it up for one season…..
I actually long for the reserve clause sometimes
Yeah.. but you just can’t tell your big new acquisition to “suck it up.” And it’s not like BJ is a shitty center fielder.
“I actually long for the reserve clause sometimes.”
You and all the owners. Yes, let’s transfer wealth from the players to the owners and tie the players to places they don’t want to play. That certainly sounds like the free enterprise system.
No I get all that (hence the sometimes) but I don’t feel that sports leagues are truly “free enterprise” in the same manner that say Google and Yahoo are. Teams compete against each other athletically, not financially. The Yankees don’t hope to win enough market share so as the Mets have to close shop, the Nationals aren’t trying to run the Orioles out of baseball.
Sports leagues work best when they are closed socialistic systems when it comes to $$$ (TV money distributed equally, other revenue distributed equally) rather than have an have nots. The more parity and revenue equality you have the greater the interest, hence the popularity spike of the NFL. (not to mention the success of the SEC who shares all revenue equally)
I get why free agency works, that doesn’t mean I have to like how very few players spend their entire careers on the same team.
No, he isn’t, but he isn’t Bourn….
this is all probably moot anyway as I don’t see the Braves landing Bourn ,if he settled on a 1 yr deal, he would get more $$$ from somebody else IMO.