Top 40 Prospects
January 10, 2013 at 10:03 am by Ben Duronio under Atlanta Braves
Below is the official top prospect list from the group over at CAC. We decided to go a bit deeper and go back to the 40 that Peter used to do a few years ago rather than the 25 we have done recently. Ethan is currently doing writeups on all of the prospects which will be released in parts over the next few weeks, and we are also planning a podcast to discuss the prospects, our rankings, and what we think of the system overall. Enjoy.
1. Julio Teheran
2. Lucas Sims
3. J.R. Graham
4. Sean Gilmartin
5. Christian Bethancourt
6. Alex Wood
7. Mauricio Cabrera
8. Nick Ahmed
9. Jose Peraza
10. Zeke Spruill
11. Edward Salcedo
12. Todd Cunningham
13. Evan Gattis
14. Joey Terdoslavich
15. Tommy La Stella
16. Matt Lipka
17. Bryan De La Rosa
18. Brandon Drury
19. Aaron Northcraft
20. Kyle Kubitza
21. Luis Merejo
22. Luis Avilan
23. David Hale
24. Cody Martin
25. Navery Moore
26. Cory Gearrin
27. Juan Jaime
28. Josh Elander
29. William Beckwith
30. Fernelys Sanchez
31. Daniel Rodriguez
32. Justin Black
33. Carlos Franco
34. Connor Lien
35. Joe Leonard
36. Nathan Hyatt
37. Johan Carmango
38. Chris Jones
39. Blake Brown
40. Ernesto Mejia
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Like the rankings. At what point does a prospect lose his prospect status?. For example, Luis Avilon. He played in 31 games last year and was called up July 14th. That is about half the season at the major league level. And from what I have read, and looking at the bullpen depth, he seems like a solid lock for a spot in the pen. I guess the same can be said for Cory Gearrin, who has been in the major leagues a bit, pitching in 40 games over a two year span. Is it the same as when a rookie loses his rookie status?
And is Delgado not considered a prospect anymore?
Man, that’s rough…I noticed that the Braves took a turn in drafting strategy about 2008/2009. I know it’s really hard to get an amazing draft class each time but it really seems we are shallowing out fast (as Heyward and Freeman etc are promoted).
This is the first time I’ve thought of this and wanted to throw it out there. I’ve always wondered why the Braves draft college players with lower ceilings now and have not gone after many of the big slugger types (other than Uggla in 2011 our last 30+ HR hitter was Andruw Jones). I am wondering if the Braves are becoming comfortable with the idea of signing FA hitters to long term contracts, when needed, instead of having to sign FA pitchers to overpaid and long term contracts. Hitters are more consistent and less injury-prone of course. Better to draft pitchers who are cheap and controllable than hitters who don’t pan out and you have to sign expensive Free Agents to fill the wholes.
Every management has a strategy and I was wondering if this was the current Braves mgmt’s strategy. It’s worked so far but I feel like the club is drying up with hitting prospects. Maybe we’ll see some solid hitters drafted early this year.
Would you be willing to help me understand how you define a prospect for inclusion in the list? I See Julio Teheran, Cory Gearrin and Luis Avilan on your list. They have some MLB service time. I do not see Randall Delgado, Tyler Pastornicky or Jose Constanza, also with some MLB service time. I do not pretend to understand how MLB defines service time or minor league status. Would you be willing to help me understand how you define a prospect for inclusion in the list?
Not a big fan of several rankings. Although he looks like a good prospect, I think it is still too early to rank Sims that high. Lipka’s shown very little in A-ball; Black has tools but was terrible in 2012. Bethancourt’s bat is still an iffy call and Salcedo is a strikeout machine.
On the other hand, I’d rank Gattis, Mejia, and some of the pitchers in the 19-27 range higher. I guess I place more weight on the likelihood of making it to the majors than on tools that may or may not ultimately translate into major league talent.
If you’re placing weight on MLB tools, then you should have no problem ranking Bethancourt #1. He, like Simmons, will probably step into the league as one of the top 3 defensive catchers. That much we know. That alone will ensure he stays above replacement level for some time. If he hits at all, it’s great. It can only go up in terms offensive value, but his defense is more than good enough to keep him afloat.
And by defensive catchers, I mean he, like Simmons, will step in as one of the top 3 defensive players at his position.
Agree that Bethancourt is superb defensively. The bat is the question. He’s always been young for his leagues and has been ok at times (AFL), but he’s also had several bad offensive seasons. Fingers crossed that he comes out strong at Mississippi this year.
francoeursux, those are all valid criticisms and defensible rankings. Keep in mind that this is a compilation of five different lists from our writers, so there may be a few quirky rankings here or there, though I generally think the overall result was pretty good.
I’ll admit, my ranking bias is exactly the opposite of yours—I tend to overrate tools, especially with respect to high school kids with huge gaps between present and future grades. I guess you could call me a dreamer (or a fool, that works too).
Gattis has 3 years of Minor league experience. 880 ABs. In 2012 as a catcher he threw out 38% of runners. McCann threw out 24%, Betancourt 39%. At 26 he is often dismissed as a prospect, and yet he continues to convince sceptics that he should be taken seriously. Good to see he is on the list this year.
David Freese and Allen Craig didn’t join the Cardinals until they were 26. I have no problem with Gattis’ age.
I’m not sure I understand the purpose, or usefulness in producing such a list. Is it just a mid-winter exercised to give bored baseball fans something completely subjective to debate?
There is an obvious need to be able to project prospects. There is real and obvious value in being able to predict how a guy will develop in the coming years. And scouting and data analysis are of course hugely important in deciding who to draft or sign.
But trying to split hairs over who is more valuable past the top couple of guys on the list just seems silly to me.
I can’t help but feel that its such a subjective exercise that its ultimately is kind of silly.
So.. you think any article other than a straight up news post is “silly”? This is an analytical blog concerning the Braves, which includes the opinions of the writers. And in this instance they’re giving their opinions on our top 40 prospects in order to inform us (the readers) on the state of the farm system. To rag on the purpose isn’t just silly, it’s dumb.
I’m not sure I understand the purpose, or usefulness, of Bobby Hill as a commenter.
Is Carlos Perez broken? He’s still only 21 and has so much promise.
Oops, genuinely meant to say “had”.
Those BB/9 numbers are mad bad.
I am looking forward to the writeups and podcast. I believe the Braves finished up last year in the bottom tier in strength of farm systems. That saying, they seem to have an abundance of homegrown players on other teams. I like that the Braves draft pitchers and shortstops. Shortstops usually end up playing other positions defensively well.
Sorry for going off-topic, but Justin Upton just nixed a trade to the Mariners and apparently the rumors of him to the Braves, among a couple other teams, are still out there. Just something to keep in mind for whatever it’s worth.
The whole J Upton & D’backs situation is getting rather frosty. Looking from outside it just seem Towers is hellbent on trading Upton for a large haul of prospects. The part that I guess must be frustrating for all concerned is every time the rumors start to die down someone from d’backs FO would stir things up again.
A pretty decent package offered by the Mariners if MLBTR are correct. Not sure if we would consider putting a package of similar quality.
It seems that the D’Backs essentially have to trade Upton now. It would be hard to see them moving forward with him after everything that has happened. That said, they certainly won’t trade him for a song. My assumption is that the Braves would likely be willing to include Tehran as part of the package. Only question of course is who else would be insisted on. Presumably with their shortstop aquisitions they wouldn’t be insisting on Simmons anymore.
It seems like Upton has given the Braves the upper hand in the trade. The DBacks know they are not getting Simmons. They know they are not getting Profar/Andrus, or any other of their desired SS. They will take the best package that is offered to them, and I think the Braves could table a good one. Teheran, Ahmed, Francisco, and maybe another mid-level prospect could do it.