LF Options – The Beauty from Within
January 11, 2013 at 12:22 pm by Mark Smith under Atlanta Braves
Note before we begin: the first post of this series was a preliminary projection of the talent of the team. It was mainly to get a general sense of how good the team was in order to figure out what direction the team should take moving forward. Saying the Braves are already a 90-win team is not meant to say so specifically. Injuries, luck, random production fluctuations, etc. can affect what actually happens. Saying they’re a 90-win team simply illustrates where they are in the competitive cycle: win-now mode. This means that each additional win is more valuable than the average win and that the Braves should look to favor safety over upside (ie. an established player over a prospect – unless the Braves can get a guy like Oscar Taveras, which is all but impossible). What follows here and in two more posts next week is an evaluation of what they “can try” to do to make the team better.
Platoons are the ultimate sabermetric catnip. Most of the time, you find two players who hit with the opposite hand, play the same position, have trouble hitting pitchers of the same hand, and deploy. What the Braves may attempt to fill the spot out in LF would be kitty crack for the sabermetrician. With the retirement of soon-to-be-Hall of Famer Chipper Jones, Martin Prado is the assumed 3B for 2013, but because the Braves haven’t added an everyday LF, the situation has become more complicated.
For now, let’s assume the Braves don’t add anyone. We want to find out what the best internal option is in order to figure out what the Braves would have to find externally to improve upon what they have. We’re basically concerned about 4 players here: Prado, Johnson, Francisco, and the bench player/regular LF/platoon player. They have 5 choices based on the current roster:
1) Prado plays 3B every day, and Reed Johnson does the same in LF.
2) Prado plays 3B every day, and Johnson platoons with Jose Constanza or Jordan Schafer in LF.
3) Prado plays 3B every day, and an unlikely ST performer (Evan Gattis, Todd Cunningham) takes the LF spot or shares it with Johnson.
4) Juan Francisco plays 3B every day, and Prado does the same in LF.
5) Kitty crack – Prado plays 3B and Johnson plays LF when a LHP is on the mound; Francisco plays 3B and Prado plays LF when a RHP is on the mound.
I think most of us can assume what the best option is, but let’s actually check.
Scenario 1 – Prado at 3B, Johnson in LF
This is an unlikely scenario. Johnson will be 37 all next season, and the last time he amassed over 500 PA was 2006 with the Blue Jays. With a BABiP of .366 (30 points over his career mark), Johnson was actually very good that season, netting 4.5 fWAR, but other than that one season, he’s never been worth more than a win and a half. I’d rather not go into the season trying to beat the odds on that one.
As for Prado, his 2012 offense mirrored his career marks, and there’s no reason to think he’ll nosedive in 2013. Defensively, however, Prado might see some regression to the mean as he posted a very high +18 (I’m not saying he wasn’t very good last season, but I also won’t take for granted that he was THAT good), but if he moves to 3B, he’ll gain some positional value along the way and should still be a plus defensively. Our projection of nearly 5 wins seems pretty reasonable (and about what other projection systems have him for as well).
Francisco ends up as a pretty limited bench player in this instance, and the Braves would add a bench player (external or a guy like Ernesto Mejia) for the other 25-man spot currently in reserve for a LF.
Value of Scenario 1: Prado (4.5-5 wins) + Johnson (.5-1.5 wins) +Francisco (.5) + Bench (.5) = 6 – 7.5 wins
Scenario 2 – Prado at 3B, Platoon in LF with Johnson and Constanza/Schafer
This scenario is a little bit more reasonable, but it still doesn’t strike me as terribly likely. Johnson is a very nice complimentary player, but he has his limits. For his career, he is a .266/.324/.380 (84 wRC+) hitter against RHP and a .311/.367/.461 (119 wRC+) hitter against LHP. If he was left-handed and that was flipped, you might be able to get away with Johnson playing every day, but because most pitchers are right-handed, that’s seeing Johnson’s bad side a little more than we’d want. If the Braves are going to use Johnson in LF, we’d probably want them to use him as part of a platoon.
This brings up who would play the other part of the platoon. Two guys already on the 40-man roster are Jose Constanza and Jordan Schafer. They’re left-handed, fast, and can play LF. Let’s take Constanza first. For his career, he’s a .281/.332/.341 (85 wRC+) hitter, and if you want the splits, he hits .340/.365/.340 (97 wRC+) against LHP and .259/.320/.341 (80 wRC+) against RHP (small sample size issues as he has just over 200 PA in his career). Constanza was more conventional in minors, so I expect the platoon issue is a SSS one. Considering his BABiPs are .405 (vs LHP) and .311 (vs RHP), I would expect that he’s not even as good of a hitter as he’s been, which isn’t very good, and Johnson is basically as good against RHP. As for Schafer, he’s hit .233/.317/.314 (75 wRC+) against RHP in almost 700 PA. Both of these players might be better defenders and baserunners, but we can move along now.
In this scenario, Constanza/Schafer is taking the 25th spot on the roster.
Value of Scenario 2: Prado (4.5-5) + Johnson (.5) + Constanza/Schafer ((-.5)-.5) + Francisco (.5) = 5 – 6.5 wins
Scenario 3 – Prado plays 3B, and a surprise ST performance (ie. Evan Gattis, Todd Cunningham) gets or splits LF with Johnson
We’ve talked about Prado and Johnson, so we’ll just move straight to the prospects. The main obstacle to this happening is that neither is on the 40-man roster, and while that does not eliminate them, you would presume that the team would like to hold onto roster spots unless one of these guys shows they are definitely better than the other options on the roster.
Evan Gattis is the common man’s choice. By now, most of you have heard his story, and although I have personal reasons for wanting him to make the majors, I’m not sure April 2013 will be the moment – he’s only had about 200 PA in AA and none in AAA and is right-handed, which doesn’t make a convenient platoon with Johnson. Gattis, however, has significant power and can also serve as the backup C, which could actually save a 40-man spot. If Gattis can hit at the MLB level, he might be able to produce 2 wins of value (if he starts almost every day), which is more than what Johnson probably could give the Braves, but he could also bottom out and be unable to adjust to the superior pitchers of the NL.
Todd Cunningham was the organization’s Minor League Player of the Year for 2013, and he had a promising AA season. Improving his contact rate while keeping his walk rate steady as he made the perilous jump to the upper minors, Cunningham is trying to prove he’s more than just a 4th outfielder. Here’s the catch with Cunningham and other possible prospects – with a playoff berth within grasp, the Braves really need safety over risk, probable production over ceiling. If there’s a better alternative, you’d rather take a couple wins from a safer play over the uncertainty of a prospect, especially one that isn’t star-caliber such as Jason Heyward or Freddie Freeman.
Gattis strikes me as more likely to win a spot on the roster because of his ability to play behind the plate and his offensive promise, but I wouldn’t expect more than perhaps a win or two from Oso Blanco. He has a higher ceiling than Johnson but also a lower floor.
Value of Scenario 3: Prado (4.5-5) + Johnson (.5) + [Gattis ((-.5)-2) or Cunningham ((-.5)-1)] + Francisco (.5) = 5 – 8 wins
Scenario 4: Francisco at 3B, Prado in LF
Now we’re getting somewhere. If you’re not a fan of platoons, this is probably the most likely scenario. As long as Prado stays excellent in LF and continues hitting the way he did, he’s probably still a 5-winish player for 2013. The question really revolves around what Francisco will be once given a full-time spot.
In a little over 200 PA in 2012, Francisco was worth almost a win, and if you’re someone who likes to push that out to a whole season, Francisco would have been worth 3 wins given a full-time spot. Unfortunately, it’s not that simple. Francisco only has about 400 PA at the major-league level (spread out over 4 seasons), so he’s relatively new to the league. The newness means the league may not have fully caught up to his weaknesses (breaking balls and strike-zone discipline), but once the cat is out of the bag, they’ll exploit it full-force. It happens to every player, and the ones who survive are the ones able to adapt. The Braves’ desire for him to adapt and improve has been well-documented. They worked on mechanical and approach changes as the season wore on (and as the league caught on), and he’s been losing weight this winter. Whether that works or not remains to be seen. One thing Francisco will have to improve is his ability to hit lefties. For his career, he’s hit .272/.320/.487 off of RHP but only .190/.224/.222 off of LHP. Though that encompasses only 400 total PA, there’s no reason to believe he should have been better (1.5% BB%, 36% K%, .300 BABiP). Young players can improve, but again, we’d like to limit risk if we can.
Johnson, in this instance, is relegated to a pretty minimal bench spot, but the Braves would also add another bench bat.
Value of Scenario 4: Prado (4.5-5) + Francisco (1.5-2.5) + Johnson (.5) + Bench (.5) = 7 – 8.5 wins
Scenario 5 – Kitty Crack
So now we get to the fun part. In this situation, Prado would play 3B on days in which a LHP is on the mound and LF when a RHP is on the mound. Francisco would play 3B when a RHP was on the mound, and Johnson would play LF with a LHP on the mound. It’s almost elegant. Doing this would take advantage of everyone’s strengths while limiting key weaknesses. Prado is versatile and needs to play every day, and Francisco can mash righties while Johnson mashes lefties (well kinda anyway). It’s kind of beautiful.
So how does the production shake out? Prado bounces back-and-forth and probably still pulls down 5 wins. Francisco would probably get 425 PA with Johnson receiving about 225. Sheltering each player will help their production. We’ll give Francisco 1.5 wins (about the FANS projection for him) and Johnson close to a full win (basically what he’s done the past few seasons). Altogether, that’s about 7-8 wins from this platoon.
Now, here’s my concern. Moving Prado around like this is a bit unusual, though I guess it’s not unprecedented. Miguel Cabrera played 55 games in LF and 34 games at 3B in 2003, and Pujols basically did it during his first three seasons. So it can be done, though I admittedly just cherry-picked (I’m sure there are more instances). But I still wonder about making someone do that for an entire season. I’d bet that Prado would accept the situation and do what was best for the team, but I guess it just seems inconvenient, which doesn’t necessarily mean it’s bad.
Value of Scenario 5: Prado (4.5-5) + Johnson (1) + Francisco (1.5-2) + Bench (.5) = 7.5 – 8.5 wins
So What’s the Best Internal Option?
These numbers are obviously ballparked, but the best options appear to be 4 or 5. Scenario 5 limits the risk because everyone’s weaknesses are being shielded, but Scenario 4 has a higher upside if Francisco’s ability to make contact improves without much of a drop in power production (Francisco could probably put up a 3-4 win season if he learned to strike out a little less, walk a little more, and still drop pimp-job-worthy blasts, but I just find it pretty unlikely). Scenario 3 has a decent upside if Gattis really comes through, but again, I’m not sure a team wants to really bet on that (to be honest, I love Gattis, but I think his most likely future is a lefty-mashing bench guy who has some added utility because he can catch and play OF; that’s valuable, but it’s also not a saving grace).
Either way, the best ways of shuffling these 4 spots around seems to get the team 7-8.5 wins. If we look back at the projections from Thursday, we get 6.1 wins (4.7+.7+.7) from Prado, Johnson, and Francisco with the last spot left to fill. In order to improve the team over what is currently on the roster, the Braves would have to add a player likely to get 1.5-2.5 wins, or an average MLB starter (ie. Jason Kubel). The discussion, however, doesn’t end there. Acquiring an outside player would cost in additional money and/or prospects while a decent bench bat might cost $1-2 million (if they didn’t just go with Mejia). That means the Braves would want to get a better than average player if they wanted to improve efficiently.
That now sets our target range. Adding a platoon player to pair with Johnson isn’t likely to make much of a difference, basically because the Braves already have a platoon situation (although odd) on the roster. Over the next couple posts, I’ll look at various external options – free-agents and trade – that could fit the bill.
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Having no MLB experience Gattis’. numbers are conjecture. But the ones assigned (-5 to -.2.0) imo don’t portray his potential. If you want to estimate his risk at -2.0. I can agree, but his upside should be more like +3.0.
Sorry if that looked confusing. I tried a couple ways, but it wasn’t working. His range was -0.5 to +2.0. I tried to put the extra () to imply that was the negative one, but it is kinda confusing.
Thanks, that makes more sense.
Still want JuanF to get most of playing time @ 3B. What about his defensive metrics?
Really too small of a sample to tell, but they see him as averageish. That makes some sense. Range isn’t particularly good, but it’s better than Chipper and what you might think a guy like Francisco would have. Real strong arm. Basically, he’s not a catastrophe or a GG finalist.
Unless Francisco falls off a cliff, I have a hard time seeing Reed Johnson earning a starting role over him. To me it’s either the wacky platoon, Francisco, or a Gattis surprise.
I see us using the wacky platoon, though it will be inevitably mismanaged. Fredi has gotten better, but I see him riding the “hot hand” at both positions.
Interesting that Upton’s bro-bro blocked a trade to the Mariners. Another report says the Rangers are moving on. Could it be that the ransom for Justin is lowering?
The “best internal option” should be anyone not named Jordan Schafer. He is nothing more than minor league filler and should be treated as such, although he should be EXTREMELY thankful Wren is even allowing him the slim to none chance of making the 25 man roster.
Has anyone considered putting a hit on Schafer? I sincerely hope we never see him in a Braves uni again.
True dat – I don’t love the idea of Fredi managing the wacky platoon for 162 games. If Francisco proves he can’t hit a lefty, that sucks, but I do think that the Francisco option has the highest possible ceiling.
While Francisco has good power, I just don’t trust his plate discipline to be a starter for 162 games. He swings at too many bad pitches, doesn’t hit well to the opposite field, and tries to hit a home run on every pitch far too often. I think he is a valuable part of the team, but I don’t see him as the future at 3rd base.
Prado is a better infielder than outfielder anyway, so it would be playing to his strength to have him at 3rd. He is a good hitter and a solid player and deserves to be out next third baseman.
If we do that way, of course that means we still need a better left field option than Reed Johnson. Apologies to Reed, but much like Francisco, I feel he is a valuable bench player but not an everyday starter.
Even if it isn’t Justin Upton, we need to make something happen to get a good left fielder. If we do, we will have a lineup that can compete with any team in baseball.
Mark which scenario would you prefer to see happen? The crack platoon making the valuable voltron or a trade for J Upton, giving up a package like Teheran or Delgado w O’Flaherty, Ahmed, and JR Graham? Or maybe Wren can pull off another Jedi mind trick and have the package revolve around Delgado.
As with any decision, it depends on what the final cost for Upton is. I hate giving you that answer, but it’s the truth. I don’t want to give up a lot of MLB talent and essentially make a lateral move. If it requires a few of our best prospects, I’m okay with it because we’re in win-now mode and a lot of this roster is very young, somewhat negating the need for a great farm system.
I’ll be giving you a few choices early next week.
That’s a fine answer haha. Definitely depends on the final cost and I think at this point we should all be comfortable about how Wren would approach a trade like this since he has a history of giving up less than seems neccessary. See: the laughable package to get Bourn. It’s also an interesting situation since the DBacks are contenders and have bungled their way into completely pissing off Upton. Another element to consider is the marketing dept’s wet dream of having 2 (potential) superstar brothers playing next to each other in the outfield next to Heyward for at least 3 years.
Are you thinking the slogan is “Up, Up, and a Hey!”?
I just want to say THANK YOU THANK YOU THANK YOU, for doing this. This is what Ive wanted to see for quite some time and confirms my belief that the “Kitty Crack” version is the best way to play it with the current roster.
can you see any senario where we could Uggla in the trade for Upton; it would balance the salary hit and prado could return to 2b. Uggla would it a ton of hrs in that park. Say Uggla, Minor, Ahmed, Delgado. it would leave us with some salary flexibility. it means Francisco plays daily and Teheran starts
They have Aaron Hill manning second, so I can’t see a situation in which they’re interested.
But speaking on Uggla, the same reasons you feel uncomfortable with his contract/performance are the same reasons other teams would be uncomfortable taking him. Again, baseball decisions are all about opportunity cost. Teams aren’t just going to be willing to take on his contract and the risk of a player his age unless they have absolutely no other options.
Agreed.
Regardless if they would take Uggla, I think including Minor and Delgado is too much, which would make including Uggs just a salary dump where he can still provide above average value at second, potentially greater than what Juan would provide at third. If Minor’s second half last year was a glimpse at what he could produce over the course of a full season, then trading him would be a big mistake.
Sorry but trading Uggla, Minor, and Delgado doesn’t even make sense to me especially for a player with 1 year left on his contract among MANY other reasons. I’m surprised I haven’t seen anyone talking about the possibility of getting Michael Bourn back for a one year deal now that teams’ interest in him have dropped dramatically. And it seems the other remaining suitors don’t want to give up their first round pick for him. I could see him signing a 1 year deal at a significantly lowered value than was once thought with the Braves and trying to cash in again in next year’s FA market. Any comments?
I don’t see Wren moving any of our present penciled in starters for Upton. IMO, if Towers really wants to trade him and the Braves are all he has left, he’s going to have to accept: Delgado,Ahmed,EOF and one of the following; Spruill,Salcedo,Cunningham
which is fairly similar to the package the M’s offered (though EOF is a better relief arm than Furbush
I totally agree with this.
“my name is vivabeta, and I approve this message” lmao
Towers doesn’t have to accept anything. It seems he would rather move Upton than anyone else because it will probably net the best return, but he could simply do what he’s always done in regard to Upton – keep him.
As for what SEA was offering, it was a very top prospect (Walker will likely be one of the top 5 pitching prospects on everyone’s list), a decent INF prospect in Franklin, and two very good relief arms (Furbush was nasty in relief and has at least 5 years of control remaining, and Pryor had some issues but struck out over 10 per 9 along with averaging 96.7 mph on his fastball and has 6 years of control remaining). While the two relievers aren’t extremely valuable, they are not chump change.
Im sure the Braves would love it if Bourn wanted to come back for one year 13.3M. I just think its completely unrealistic that it happens….it would probably give us the best outfield defense in the history of the league though…
I wouldn’t say it’s unrealistic. I’m even on the verge of saying it’s somewhat likely. Sadly though, I believe one of the issues that might hold back the Braves is having to move Upton to left to make room for Bourn.
Of course, I think that it’s complete garbage that a team has to feel like they need to tip toe around their stars hoping to not irritate them. I’m sorry, but if you give me a $75 million contract, I’d scratch Wren’s balls if he asked, let alone get upset about switching positions for a season.
How does no one understand that you can’t do this? It’s not dealing with an ego, it’s owning up to an assumed promise. We didn’t trade for Upton, we lured him to Atlanta as a free agent and NO ONE will want to come to Atl as a free agent in the future if the FO doesn’t give a shit what their players want. This is just how it works and is why you see Granderson playing CF in NY and not Gardner. CF is a premium position that a player is proud of. LF is one of the least premium positions, and I wouldn’t blame BJ if he got pissed if they asked him to move.
Anyways, Wren said BJ isn’t moving from CF so it’s a moot point.
That’s still garbage Viva. See Prado. Sure, he’s not some big name that going to put up huge numbers, but if Fredi and Wren went to Prado and said, we need you to move to RF or catcher on a permanent basis, do you really think he would get pissed??
Wouldn’t Bourn coming back at anything close to that salary force us shed $5 mil or so in salary? At least an EOF for instance?
Probably. I’ve done a preliminary look at the payroll (I’ll publish it later this week), and we’re at about $82M. Last year’s payroll was $93M. Considering other 40-man players, the Braves have around $10M if the Braves up the payroll some. Only they know the final budget, but they’d probably have to cut money from somewhere.
I’d roll with option 5. If it isn’t working out after a couple of months, you might have Gattis putting up an OPS in the .800′s in AAA, so you could solve the problem internally. If not, you could make a trade. At this point option 5 is the best move, unless D-backs lower asking price for Upton.
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/anatomy-of-a-baseball-trade-10202011.html
^Things like this give me hope that the DBacks will eventually lower their price as Upton’s market gets smaller and smaller. Wren will not overpay, prospect-wise, for Upton. He has done really well showing only enough interest to keep teams engaged, and doesn’t ever come off as desperate and get taken advantage of.
The only fear I have now would be if ARI finds a trade partner for another one of their OFers, and just keep a disgruntled Upton, again. Apparently they’re interested in Porcello, and if they were to trade Parra or Kubel in a deal, that effectively takes Upton off the market, I think.