This is Why I’m So Confident in Mike Minor
January 14, 2013 at 12:06 pm by Ben Duronio under Atlanta Braves
I have been one of the major supporters of Mike Minor for about as long as he has been a professional baseball player. On draft day, I was somewhat confused about the team going after what was supposedly a low-ceiling, high floor starter, but seeing his development over the first year of his professional career gave me confidence that the Braves knew what they were doing when they drafted him in the first round.
In the majors, Minor has had a ton of ups as well as a ton of downs. His first stint in the majors was impressive but his arm tired toward the tail end of the season which caused his ERA to balloon to an astronomical level before being shut down for the season. His next year as the team’s sixth starter, he posted numbers that us sabermetricians find appealing. He struck out nearly a batter per inning, kept his walks at a relatively low level, and did not allow the ball to leave the ballpark. Unfortunately, in his 15 starts he was also rather hittable, leaving his ERA at 4.14 while his FIP was at a very respectable 3.39.
In his first full year in the rotation, which it is important to note that last year was the first time that he knew he would be starting against major league hitters every time he took the hill, he continued on his rocky road. Starting 30 games gives us a nice round number to look back and see where things turned, since he started the season off with one of the worst ERAs in the majors. Through his first 10 starts, Minor had a 6.98 ERA and was close to losing his spot in the rotation. Things changed after that, as I am sure most of you are aware. In his final 20 starts of the season, Minor posted a 2.74 ERA, with 94 strikeouts, 35 walks, and 13 home runs allowed in 121.1 innings pitched. While his strikeouts were down compared to the previous season, he was able to walk batters at a much lower rate and keep the ball in the ballpark as well. He allowed 26 home runs over the course of the full year, so 13 of them came in the first third of the year and the next 13 came in twice as many starts. That is progress, and progress that is terrific to see from a first year starter.
As my colleague Jeff Zimmerman of FanGraphs notes, Minor made an alteration to his fastball’s break and began to see a tremendous amount of success. With the new fastball, his walk rate jumped to elite levels and his home run rate, as previously mentioned, dropped like a ton of bricks. Entering the year, Minor will have a tremendous amount of confidence in how he ended the season and is my bet to throw the most innings on the roster. With his control becoming more and more impressive, he should be able to benefit from a great defense behind him and many quick innings. I am sure he will have his struggles, but as long as his mechanics stay strong and he focuses on pounding the zone, he should put together a season in the 3.0-4.5 win area. That is a wide range, but if he pitches like he did for 34 starts as he did in last season’s final 20, he would be a Cy Young candidate. Of course, I think those numbers are probably on the higher end of the spectrum, but he has shown what he is capable of and should be able to perform at a level not incredibly far off of those numbers.
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Couldn’t agree more, and I sure hope you’re right! I think the future is bright for Minor.
My brother and I have spent hours discussing how Minor will perform in 2013. Here is one concern. If Prado plays 3rd base than Minor is the pitcher that will suffer the most. The Braves had the best outfield defense in baseball last year and Minor knew it and used it. While Upton gets mixed reviews in center, I don’t think anyone expects good LF defense by anyone internal not named Prado. I hopeful that Minor improves on last year, but I’m worried because he isn’t going to have as much help in the OF.
It’s not like Wren is mulling over bringing back Troy Glaus to play left field. The hypothetical options for LF are Prado, Justin Upton, Bourn, Cunningham, Schafer, Constanza, Reed Johnson, and Gattis–who is the only real defensive liability. BJ isn’t Bourn in center but he’s a plus defender, and Heyward only gets better at everything he does.
I bet Heyward ends up a top 5 vote getter for thee MVP next season.
I didn’t mean to suggest that the outfield would be terrible, only that what we had last year was a luxury that we will miss. We may end up middle of the pack this year and fly ball pitchers should take a hit (maybe not a big one).
That being said, Hudson is going to love pitching for the Braves next year with a full year of Simmons and Prado replacing Chipper in the infield.
I’ve loved Minor since he was at Vandy. I was in grad school there in 2007 when he (9-1, 3.09) and David Price (11-1, 2.63) made every Saturday and Friday (respectively) a sure win.
Why do all Braves articles seem to be written by prospective 7th graders?
“On draft day, I was somewhat confused about the team going after what was supposedly a low-ceiling, high floor starter, but seeing his development over the first year of his professional career gave me confidence that the Braves knew what they were doing when they drafted him in the first round.”
and…
“In the majors, Minor has had a ton of ups as well as a ton of downs.”
And am I only the only Braves fan concerned with having four players in the lineup with 100+ strikeouts last year? (Uggla-168, Upton-169, Freeman-129, Heyward-152)
strikeouts are just outs. The prolific Yankees and Red Sox offenses of the late 90s/early 2000s struck out a ton.
Are you really complaining about marginally superfluous commas? Seriously? Feel free to make a donation so that we might employ a professional editor at any time.
On this site? You are probably one of the few who care.
Strikeouts for batters just don’t hurt as much as you think they do. Not if there is coinciding production. an out is an out is an out. Sure some outs are slightly better than a strikeout, but some are a lot worse (double plays).
If a guy puts up numbers, his K levels just don’t matter all that much. It’s value that’s important, not batter K’s
Yes you’re the only one.
Now go along and study for your nitpicking 101 class so you can graduate on time from petty-asshole university.
just to give you some stats, here are the top and bottom in K’s in MLB last year and 2001 and their runs scored.
#1 in K’s: Athletics with 1387 K’s and 713 runs scored
last in K’s: Roylas with 1032 and 676 runs scored
in 2001:
#1 in K’s: Brewers with 1399 and 740 runs scored
last :Royals with 898 and 729 runs scored
there simply is no consistent numbers linking low K’s with scoring more runs. It’s all over the place, some years the team with the least K’s scores a lot of runs, sometimes they don’t…. It’s not really a factor
Uggla may struck out a lot but he lead the NL in walks last year as well.
He was too patient and it was not his style though.
Upton’s number is very unpredictable as well. The guy seems varying a lot based on what his coaching taught him but he still cannot find a balance point.
I don’t know if Upton is going to struck out a lot or not but I am pretty sure he is going to walk a lot just like Uggla…I hope his power does not disappear though.
Going back to what the jerk said I am also worried about our lineup. Not so much the strikeout guys (we all know Heyward and Freeman are going to have decent power numbers)but the fact that we no longer have a true lead off. I’m assuming Simmons or Prado will fill that void but if you look back to before Bourn and really since Furcal, the Braves without table setters is really a lost lineup.
As for the jerk, while his tone is quite offensive, I agree that most blogs are written as if Joe McCarver wrote them. But then again, WHAT THE *&^% YOU WANT FOR FREE??
Lead off Schmead off, Prado will put up a .350 OBP leading off and isn’t exactly a base clogger. I would rather acquire the player with the most value, regardless of where he gets that value.