LF Options – Is the Grass Greener on the Other Side?
January 15, 2013 at 10:00 am by Mark Smith under Atlanta Braves
When we last talked, we tried to figure out what the best internal option was for the Braves, and once we found that out (likely the kitty crack platoon), we could find out what the Braves need to find externally to better what they already have. In order to come out even (which doesn’t make much sense), the Braves would need to find an average starter, but in order to improve, they need an above-average starter who is likely to contribute 3+ wins of value.
What we look to do today is to find out what the best (if there is one) external option would be. The answer is not simply what player produces the most. If you were going to buy a car, you wouldn’t simply buy a Ferrari because it’s the best car available. You would take budgetary restrictions and the cost/value of the car into account. Baseball teams do the same with players. I realize you know this, but I’m pre-emptively trying to stop the debate of simply offering Michael Bourn $16 million for 2013 or trading whatever it takes to get Justin Upton. Those are the high-profile names, but let’s see if they make the most sense.
Free-Agents
This is a list of the available free-agent outfielders and their ages heading into 2013 pulled from MLB Trade Rumors. It shouldn’t surprise you, but there’s not much left. Michael Bourn is the only free-agent who clearly meets the threshold of being an above-average regular. Scott Hairston had a career year in 2012 and could have been a 3-win player with more playing time (though that’s projecting out 400 PA to 600), and Nyjer Morgan has been above-average a couple times in the recent past. Let’s take a little time to talk about each in a little more detail.
(Note: All of the charts that follow are meant to give general outlooks. The projected WAR for each player is based on him playing 600+ PA for Atlanta, and they’re generally optimistic. They’re just to give us an idea before we move forward.)
Taking a look at Bourn, he’s a very productive player and has been for the past few seasons. Over the past four seasons, he’s been worth at least 4 wins each time. As he enters his age-30 season (born Dec 27, 1992), Bourn’s talent isn’t in dispute, but his ability to play at a high level throughout a 5-7 year deal is. My fear with Bourn is that his value is based entirely on his speed. He’s an effective hitter, but part of it comes down to his ability to run. He has a massive value on the bases because he can run. He has a lot of defensive value due to his range, which is because he can run. If anything ever happened to his speed, I’m not sure he’d have any value at all. BJ Upton has his flaws, but his skills – speed, power, arm – are at least diverse, making it more unlikely that his value goes completely down the tube.
If he accepts a one-year deal, however, those concerns go out the window. None of us know how probable that is or if the possibility of a one-year deal will attract more suitors (and thus increase what the team would have to offer him), but a one-year deal in the $15-17M range wouldn’t be out of line. I don’t know who would play CF, but if Bourn was to be moved to LF, he’d probably lose a win of value while still being valuable enough for the same one-year deal, considering the team’s desire to add wins. The lone drawback would be losing the draft pick, but the team could get it back for 2014.
That 2.5 wins is generous. Hairston has never once reached that mark, but then again, he’s never received more than 500 PA in a season. He’ll turn 33 early in the season, but I won’t say it’s completely outside of the realm of reason that Hairston could be a decent regular next season. Hairston, however, really stretches to reach our threshold, and I don’t think he’s worth pursuing as a starter.
I included Morgan because he was an interesting name to me. He’s had a few very good seasons, but both were buoyed by high BABiPs. It was a thought, but considering the additional concern over his antics, it really isn’t worth it.
Trades
There are obviously significantly more trade options than free-agent options. To get on this list, I had to think it was possible the team would be willing to trade them and to have seen them mentioned somewhere as a trade candidate, and they had be of starter quality. I did consider third basemen in this, but other than Chase Headley (who would likely be more expensive than Upton) and Mike Olt (may not really want to bank on a rookie; I’d rather spend the resources on getting a guy like Upton), the good third basemen are taken and probably unavailable. As for the players in color, I’ll talk more specifically about the players in green, but I’ll quickly tackle why the guys in yellow might not work.
De Aza is an interesting player, but I don’t know that he qualifies as an above-average regular or if he’s available (it was mentioned earlier in the off-season, but I’m not sure why the White Sox would trade him). Crisp is another interesting player, but I don’t think he quite makes the production threshold either. Will Venable is a personal favorite, but he also fails to meet the production requirement (though he’d be a good platoon partner for Johnson, that’s not what we’re after here). Matt Carpenter is a guy I like for 3B, but I’m not sure he’d be available (he’s kind of an extra at the moment) or good enough. Emilio Bonifacio has the speed people seem to want, but he’s not the caliber of player we’re looking for, either. None of these players are ones that I would want to have to convince another team to get rid of, so let’s get to the other ones.
Gerardo Parra is the first guy on the list, and most Braves fans know him because of his strong arm, having thrown out a number of Braves on the basepaths the past few seasons. Parra has been a part-time OF for Arizona the past few seasons, amassing 400+ PA filling in often and for injuries, but he’s never really been given an opportunity to start every day, which is probably true for 2013 as well. While he has definite value on defense, he’s not a particularly good hitter, but as you may notice, he’s still been a valuable player and has improved since a dismal 2010. The main draw, in this scenario, is that he’ll turn 26 early in the season and just hitting his peak, indicating he may improve and become an above-average regular.
As for his value, I’ve given a suggested value in green ($5.25M per win in 2013, $5.5M in 2014, and $5.75M in 2015; you can quibble with the details, but I’m just trying to give you an estimate) based on him starting every day for Atlanta. Matt Swartz, at MLB Trade Rumors, projected a $2.1M salary for 2013, and I’ll project $4.5 and $6.5M (I used current teammate Cody Ross as an arbitration comp) for $13M total. That’s a surplus value of about $30M, but considering his value right now is closer to a 2-win player, his total value would be (2*5.25+2*5.5+2*5.75) $33M, giving us a surplus value of about $20M. If you look at prospect values, trading for Parra would likely cost a top position player prospect (Christian Bethancourt?) or a couple decent pitching prospects (Sean Gilmartin, Zeke Spruill, JR Graham?).
The advantage to trading for Parra is that the Braves probably wouldn’t lose anyone off the major-league roster.
Any of you heard of this guy? Over the past 4 seasons, Upton has gone from awesome to pretty good to MVP candidate to meh, and it’s this inconsistency that has driven the DBacks to consider trading him. The main difference in his value has come from his power which has vacillated between average and well above average, but as you can see, projections see him rebounding. I see no reason to doubt that. If you do and see him as more of a 3-4 win player, then his value might be closer to (3*5.25+3.5*5.5+4*5.75) $58M, meaning his surplus value is basically Parra’s, but you should still be willing to pay a little more in prospects for Upton because he’s a better player than Parra (a 3-4 win player will help the team more than a 2-3 win player despite their overall values).
Unfortunately, the DBacks seem to selling Upton for retail. A $40-50M surplus is pretty difficult to get to using prospects, and the Mariners were willing to pay Taijuan Walker, Nick Franklin, Stephen Pryor, and Charlie Furbush. A similar deal from Atlanta could be Julio Teheran, Nick Ahmed/Bethancourt, Gilmartin/Spruill, and Juan Jaime, but it might take a major-league reliever like Eric O’Flaherty or Jonny Venters. Don’t belittle Furbush and Pryor as they’re both strikeout-heavy relievers with 5-6 years of control left. O’Flaherty really isn’t guaranteed to be better than either, is more expensive, and is only under control for 2013. And while I’m sure most of us would rather trade Randall Delgado than Julio Teheran, that doesn’t mean the DBacks will simply accept a deal with Delgado instead of Teheran.
The obvious advantage to trading for Upton is getting a star-caliber player to complete what would be, at the very least, one of the top 3 outfields in baseball, but it might require trading significant parts of the major-league roster, which might defeat the purpose.
Before you flip out, hear me out. While I understand that Alfonso Soriano is one of the more derided players for “not living up to his contract”, that doesn’t mean he’s not useful. Soriano had a bounce-back season in 2012, and while such a season from a 36-year old is often seen as a blip, it helps Soriano’s case that there was a reason for it – using a lighter bat. Soriano has always used a heavy bat, but in an effort to regain bat speed, he saw it pay dividends. While I wouldn’t expect another 4-win season (not likely to quite repeat the power, fielding, or BABiP), a 3-win season doesn’t seem out of the realm of possibilities.
The question is what the Braves would have to give up. For a deal to work, the Braves would obviously not take on the entire contract, and because the Cubs have a small payroll but presumably a large revenue base, the Cubs should be able and willing to eat a significant portion. If the Cubs were to eat around $20M, that would leave the Braves paying $15M or so, but as you can see, Soriano’s value (in green) is about $10-$15M higher than that. To offset some of that, the Braves can counter with the fact that Soriano is 37, and as guys get older (especially strike out guys), they’re more likely to collapse. The Cubs, however, are likely to want a decent prospect in return after Soriano had such a good season, so a Zeke Spruill/Aaron Northcraft-type prospect might work. Depending on the amount of money eaten by the Cubs, the amount or type of prospect would change (eating more money means a better prospect and vice-versa).
The advantage to this deal is trading away very little, but the risk is Soriano’s already declining bat speed completely disappearing.
With only one year of control, Corey Hart has the least team control of anyone on this list, but he still fits what we’re looking for. The main issue is that Hart moved to 1B last season after several years of being a pretty bad defensive LF, so the Braves would be sacrificing defense in left. Hart’s offense, however, is his calling card, though he’s similar to the other players on the list in that his power is somewhat aided by generally hitter-friendly home parks, and the 30-homer power might inflate his perceived value. That being said, Hart will be 31 at the beginning of the season, and he’s likely to be a slightly above-average regular.
Now, what would it take? The Brewers are, at best, the third-best team in the Central, and their starting rotation and farm system could use a little help. Hart shouldn’t have too much value beyond what we’ve discussed here, so a Spruill/Northcraft-type prospect might do it. The main question is whether the Brewers are willing to move Hart. They sit in an awkward middle ground where they have a chance, but it doesn’t look particularly great. They may want to keep Hart in order to make a run, and unless they received a blow-away offer, they may be inclined to keep him. Hart’s not a player I want to overpay for.
The advantage to this deal is limited risk, but his perceived value might be higher than his real value.
Willingham has been a Braves fan-favorite to acquire for some time. The Braves have seemingly had trouble filling in the outfield for the past half-decade or so while Willingham toiled away on unimpressive NL East teams. It seemed like a match made in heaven, but the Braves never pulled or had the chance to pull the trigger. Willingham has always had patience and power, but his value has always been brought down by frequent injuries. Over his first 7 full season, he’s played 140+ games 3 times and has only done so once (last season) in the past 5. He will turn 34 in another month, and guys don’t generally get healthier as they get older.
But Willingham’s value is very high right now. He’s under contract for just $7M for each of the next 2 seasons, and he just blasted 30+ homers for the first time in his career. And he did that playing half his games in Target Field. What that means is that his perceived value is probably higher than the one I have in green, and that value already meant trading one of the Braves’ better prospects. Do you want to trade away two good-to-decent prospects for a guy whose value may not really be more than what Parra could offer?
The advantage to this trade is the best non-Upton hitter on the list at a very reasonable price, but I also expect that he’ll cost a couple pretty pennies.
Morse has become somewhat of a hot topic lately because of Adam LaRoche signing a new contract with Washington and with an outfield crowded with Bryce Harper, Denard Span, and Jayson Werth. Morse is a nice addition to a team, but he really stretches the definition of “above-average” regular. His one 3-win season is basically the definition of his best-case scenario. Morse has 30-homer power, but he’s a bad defensive LF who doesn’t run the bases well. Working in Morse’s favor is that he’s 31 all season and has an affordable contract.
Working against him is that Morse probably fits along with Corey Hart as being a player whose perceived value is probably higher than his real value. In addition, he plays for division-rival Washington, and while that shouldn’t make a difference theoretically, Washington isn’t likely to help their main rival for the division title if they can trade Morse elsewhere. There should be plenty of suitors for Morse, so I wouldn’t expect the Braves to get him cheaply. Morse isn’t a guy I want to “overpay” for, and I wouldn’t expect Washington to be enthusiastic about trading him to Atlanta.
The advantage to Morse is limited risk in regard to his contract, but I’m not really sure he meets our talent threshold of “above-average regular”.
You’ve Spent 2,500 Words on This, so Who’s the Guy?
As you can see, there aren’t a ton of options out there to fill the LF hole, but the Braves do have some choices this late in the off-season. If I had to rank them, I’d say:
1) Michael Bourn on an expensive one-year deal – This gives the Braves a lot of production, only costs money, and limits risk, but no one knows if Bourn would take such a deal or if the Braves could afford it. I probably wouldn’t be interested in a long-term deal.
2) Justin Upton – Upton will require the most, but he’s the only player on the list who is a difference-maker, has 3 years of control left, and is the youngest player here. Everyone else, with the exception of Bourn, stretches the definition of “above-average” regular and would have to play near their best to reach it. Upton’s baseline is “above-average regular”.
3) Alfonso Soriano – He gets a bad reputation, but he’s been a pretty valuable guy in 3 of the past 5 seasons, has power, and has been better than you’d expect defensively (trend is slightly above-average in LF). The cost should also be fairly minimal, but I could see a situation in which the Cubs held out for a good return, knowing they have him for two years and can afford to keep him.
4) Gerardo Parra – Parra is one of the few guys on this list heading into his prime, and while I have some Home/Road fears with him, he gives a solid combination of value and long-term control. He won’t come cheaply, though.
5) Josh Willingham/Corey Hart – Both players are solid players, but I don’t like the idea of paying a lot for either one. Contracts are reasonable, though.
6) Michael Morse – The production vs cost of acquiring scale seems to tilt way too much toward the cost side.
The important question to always keep in mind is “What does he cost?”, and as a result of being where we are, we simply don’t know the answer to these questions. I’ve tried to be as reasonable as I could be, but I’m admittedly using a lot of speculation here.
Remember, the Braves already have a possible internal option that should amount to a decent MLB starter, so adding in the cost of adding a player, the Braves would need to add an above-average regular to really improve upon what they already have. Bourn and Upton are really the only guys who can dependably fit that bill, and they will likely cost a lot to acquire. But given the fact that the Braves are probably valuing these marginal additional wins more than a normal win, either of them would certainly be worth pursuing.
Final question – “Of all of these scenarios, which would you pick?” I don’t want to give you this answer, but it depends on the cost. I’d be willing to part with a lot for Upton, stretch the budget for Bourn, or simply go with the kitty crack platoon if the prices for the other options are too high. Sticking with the internal option may resign the Braves to a repeat Wild Card appearance, but adding Bourn and Upton may still not make enough of a difference to beat out a Washington Nationals team that might be the best in baseball.
So who do you choose?
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I enjoyed the analysis, but the chart with Soriano’s numbers is missing… Upton’s is there twice.
Oops. It’s been fixed. Thanks for the heads up.
I would prefer sticking with the current roster for 2-3 months, and then adding a piece near the trade deadline.
If there is truly over fifteen million dollars that could be spent on Bourn, then I would save the money in the hope that it could be used to extend some of the young talent currently on the roster.
Of all available options, I’m inclined to lean the same way, Craig. You can never have enough starting pitching, and if acquiring a player like Upton via trade thins out the pitching ranks at the highest levels of the minors, I’m not sure it would be worth it. I also like having a guy like Ahmed around for a bit longer.
As constructed the team appears to be a playoff contender. Given Mark’s analysis, I’m just not sure a player is out there at this point who could significantly enhance the roster without potentially creating other problems down the line.
This! I’m interested in seeing what Francisco can do starting ~75% of games. If he doesn’t pan out, fine, make a trade. Clearly the free agent market is not deep or diverse at this point, making a mid-season trade makes all the sense in the world if its necessary.
Yes. Don’t pay 15 million for one year for Bourn. Put that away in an account labeled “Heyward- future of our franchise” and call it good with a platoon.
You mean this Nyjer Morgan?
http://deadspin.com/5975967/nyjer-morgan-got-caught-cheating-on-his-girlfriend-according-to-nyjer-morgans-twitter-account
Yeah, that was … impeccable timing. I’ve never been a Nyjer Morgan/Tony Plush fan, but he’s been a solid player in the past. Figured I would just check.
I think the guy is pretty hilarious, but he definitely wouldn’t fit into the humorless, stoic, zzzzzzz Braves philosophy.
Just wondering, have you watched much of “behind the scenes” kind of things with the Braves? Yes on the field they go for boring, but if you watched David Ross, Tim Hudson, Freddie Freeman, etc, they were pretty sophomoric a lot of the time.
On the field they stayed very stoic and professional, but off it, they clowned around and enjoyed themselves. Don’t equate criminal record with “humorous”
I’ve seen a lot of scenarios, but I don’t see any scenario reconciling the Braves’ budget. DOB or Bowman has posted that the Braves only have about $10M or less to spend next season. Do you think Liberty is going to stretch this?
$10M is probably about right. I’ve done a preliminary outlook for this season, and the Braves have about $82M spoken for (not including guys on 40-man that aren’t on the MLB roster). If the payroll is about $95M, then $10M is probably about what’s left. It would be enough to land Upton but probably not Bourn, though I suppose Liberty could be convinced that this would really put the team over the top.
The guy the braves fans should keep an eye out on is switch hitting outfielder in our farm system is Todd Cunningham. He’s an ideal leadoff hitter. High average from both sides of the plate and OBP, steals bases, switch hits, with great size 6′ 200lbs that maybe can add some pop in the future, but for sure would be a 150-200 hit machine. He can play all outfield positions, but it would be ideal to move Upton to left field, but BJ might catch a tantrum with that move, so Cunningham would be a 80 defender(20-80 scale) in Left Field.
You’re on some serious drugs if you think it’d be “ideal” to move Upton to LF and put Cunningham in CF. Cunningham will never be anything more than a platoon player (he’s basically a slower, switch hitting version of Jose Constanza as it stands now anyway). If anyone in the organization would even have the slimest of chances to move Upton to LF it would be Constanza, and that thought is so utterly ridiculous to entertain its laughable. Second would be Schafer, and that is even more absurd and laughable.
I agree that Cunningham isn’t much of an impact prospect, but he is a better defender than Constanza.
Great analysis
I agree first see if we could get Bourn for one to two years. Then give internal options a try, if they don’t look good start to look at trades. First see if we can get Upton for Delgado, Spruil, Ahmed and OFlaherty (otherwise pass on Upton), then see if we can get Parra for a Salcedo or Spruil & Northcraft. Don’t know if they would go for it but I would like Parra even if we go with Fransico at third we need a LH off the bench. I have been hoping for Parra for over a year now. He plays great defense, sprays some hits, runs decent enough and takes enough walks to be a valuable player.
I’d go with Upton if we didn’t have to part with Teheran early in the season. As much as the Braves are built around pitching, we don’t have a ton of depth until Beachy returns midseason. If one pitcher gets hurt and Teheran is gone, who’s or next option? Gilmartin? We’re not even sure he’s ready yet. If it were me, I’d take another look at Dexter Fowler. He’s not overly expensive, and while he may require 2 good pitching prospects and a wild-card; that’s not as risky as giving up the farm for Upton. What do you think of Fowler? Would possibly Gilmartin, Graham, and a lower level guy be enough? Would he be worth that?
I thought about mentioning Fowler (and I probably should have, but it was already getting pretty long), but he’s never been a 3-win player and would be losing some of his value by switching from CF to LF.
I think Fowler’s going to take a leap forward this year. Not worth selling the farm to acquire, but he’ll be worth 3.5-4.5 wins.
Nice work. I never really considered Soriano, but always thought whatever team ended up with him would be happy about it. For a low risk return with only giving up a B prospect and around 5mil/year I think he could be well worth it.
So long as it wasn’t insane, I’d just rather trade for Upton. He’s the youngest on the list but also has the highest potential value along with one of the highest realistic values. And team control for 3 more years with a high likelihood to re-sign (since his big bro is already here)? The cost is steep but it seems like it’ll be steep no matter who we go after. Upton would cost the most but also likely return the most.
If the Braves DID acquire Justin Upton, would that affect (Or is it effect? I can never remember which one to use.) their ability to lock up other players long-term like Jason Heyward or Brian McCann (assuming he’s the Brian McCann of old this year)? If so, I’m sure that’s something else the Braves will factor into the decision of whether or not to seriously pursue Justin Upton.
Affect – verb, effect – noun; just go with that generally.
As for Upton, signing him would have an effect. One thing to keep in mind is that teams should start receiving $10-13M (maybe more) from TV deals with FOX and ESPN, so the budget will hopefully go up. However, Upton’s contract will have some effect. As for McCann, he already makes a lot of money, so signing him long-term would mainly just add a few million. As for Heyward and other extensions, it kind of depends. The extensions will include arbitration seasons that the Braves will likely pay what they already projected to pay, and the free-agent seasons included would occur AFTER Upton’s contract is up. So I don’t think it will have a massive effect there. The main effect is being able to acquire further outside talent, but as far as outside talent goes, Upton’s probably better than what the Braves could “replace” (in this scenario) Upton with.
Thanks for the reply, Mark. That clears up some of the stuff I was trying to figure out on my own in regards to how acquiring Upton would affect the Braves’ plans to sign other players long-term. Also, thanks for the affect/effect info. That’s what happens when you’ve been out of school for 7 years: your mind goes to crap.
You can’t forget about all the arbitration raises the young guys will start to get this year and moving forward. Its nice to have great young players but its hard to keep them together as they get expensive. Beachy, Minor, Freeman, Kimbrel, Venters, Heyward will all hit arbitration soon if they haven’t already. None of those guys is going to break the bank by themselves, but cumulatively they will be costly.
Also, the influx of TV dollars is great, but we can’t expect all of the money to go directly to the MLB payroll.
The arbitration raises are basically already in the plans. If the Braves make the trade, they will do it thinking they can fit his contract into the budget along with the arbitration raises. Players begin to make money in arbitration, but to be honest, it’s still not THAT much (relative to free-agency). The real way it would hamper the Braves is acquiring someone by trade (prospects gone, contract added) and free-agency (adding a new contract) because those are somewhat unexpected.
Mark are the Braves set to receive an extra shot of TV revenue? There was a piece on this site several months back that outlined the Braves current TV deal and the outlook for future TV revenue increases was pretty grim. Can you expand on this a little bit? Thanks.
The are team-specific deals, and there are MLB-wide deals that each team benefits equally from. The Braves’ team-specific deal might be one of the worst in the sport. They, however, will benefit (starting in 2014, I believe) from renewed deals that MLB made with ESPN and FOX that increased revenue substantially.
The TV deal mark is referring to is the national deal that all teams get. It doesn’t give the Braves an advantage, because all teams get it, but it does give them a bit more payroll flexibility on old contracts. In the long run it’s just inflationary.
The Braves ‘home’ tv deal is still terrible.
According to DOB, the Braves payroll can be as high as 98 mil next season. Most estimates have the Braves around 82 mil currently. That should leave room for extensions and either Upton or Bourn.
I alluded to this in an earlier post, but I don’t think anyone noticed it. I think there may be an opportunity to trade Uggla to Seattle right now as they’ve shown a willingness to overpay for a power hitter. If the Braves were able to couple this with adding Justin Upton the team would be better this year and moving forward.
Before all you know-it-alls start spouting the “There’s no need to trade Uggla” or “Uggla was worth his money last year” lines let me explain.
I don’t see Uggla has a huge liability, but his salary might be. His ginormous salary is likely one of things preventing the Braves from pulling the trigger on Upton. If Upton is added there’s almost no way to retain McCann, or give extensions to others unless Uggla is unloaded.
By adding Justin Upton, Uggla would become a very expensive luxury. That need for RH power bat in the middle of the lineup that was so acute a few years ago would no longer exist. With both Uptons in the lineup Uggla may end up batting 7th or even 8th.
I definitely wouldn’t trade Uggla without adding Upton, but if Upton were added Uggla should be a trade target at that point because his projected future value is less than his salary over the remaining on his contract. If there is a team out there willing to overpay for Uggla’s skillset then the Braves should to consider that option.
Seattle’s offense was atrocious last year. They had the lowest OBP and slugging in the majors. Their lineup is a mix of young inexperienced hitters, AAAA players, and has-beens clinging to their careers. Its a disfunctional lineup. Their GM is feeling the heat, and needs to improve his lineup for this year to retain his job. Admittedly, what the M’s really need is an impact outfielder, but Uggla’s OBP and power could really help them. Seattle’s 2B Dustin Ackley (from North Carolina indecently) is a talented hitter who projects as a top of the order hitter, but he’s coming of a serious sophomore slum. The question of whether or not the the M’s are willing to trade Ackley depends on how desperate their GM feels to add to a middle of the order bat for 2013.
I’m glad I’m not the only one who thought this! I like Uggla as much as the next guy and appreciate the impressive feat of keeping his BA/OBP spread as wide as it is, but if we could offload his contract the next couple of budget meetings might not end with so many teeth ground smooth!
The one thing you guys seem to be forgetting is that if we are privy to all this information about Uggla, the other owners are as well and even more than we have.
Yes Uggla actually lived up to/exceeded his monetary value last year even though the actual numbers are below par. Yes his contract is an albatross and it would be great to move him. But Seattle’s GM is going to be looking at the exact same numbers we are. Over-paying for Justin Upton, a guy coming into his prime and still having 3 years of team control left is far different than over-paying for a guy that appears to be in a decline.
I like the idea and all too, but I think it’s very wishful thinking.
I agree with Michael. I realize most of us would like to unload Uggla’s contract, but for the same reasons we would like to see it gone, other teams wouldn’t want it.
Seattle would like some added offense, so it’s not terribly far-fetched. But a decent amount of Uggla’s value is being able to play second [insert laughter] at least capably, and Seattle isn’t likely to move Ackley to another position to accomodate Uggla. Seattle also generally kills righty power, so there’s that.
The idea of trading Uggla is ridiculous but you may be on to something. Ackley blocks Uggla at 2B but if the Mariners want to improve their offense they may look to move Ackley to the outfield or DH Uggla. They talked of moving Ackley to the outfield when he came out of college but decided against it. If the Mariners are up to it we could work a three team trade.
Braves receive J Upton.
Mariners recieve Uggla.
D’Backs get Franklin, Pryor from Seattle and Delgado, O’flaherty from Atl.
The M’s improve their offense and only give up Franklin and Pryor. The D’Backs get essentially the deal they wanted from the M’s just only Delgado instead of Walker and OFlaherty instead of Furbush. Atlanta gets a outstanding outfield with Upton. Prado can go to 2B and give Francisco a shot at 3B. If he fails move Prado to 3B and hopefully prospects of Pastornicky, Lipka, Ahmed, or LeStella prove they can handle 2B. Plus the financial flexibilty to go after someone else or extend current players. Plus we only trade two prospects to get Upton instead of four. It has potential.
The more I think the more likely I see this as a possibilty. If the M’s need more incentive dangling the addition of Mejia and/or Gattis may get them to bite on Uggla.
Would you trade Franklin and Pryor for Uggla? I don’t think I would. Eating salary isn’t going to help for a team like the M’s. They aren’t contenders and can afford to take on a ‘salary dump player’ for at least a couple years to stay afloat since they will have a young, cheap roster anyways. Uggla as a DH makes sense, but they already have a 1B/C/DH logjam with Smoak, Montero, and Jaso, plus Zunino making his way up. That means either Uggla or Ackley changes positions and loses value, and SEA may not be as willing to include the same level prospects, which would take ARI out. There’s also the Safeco effect, probably neutralizing Uggla’s already declining power.
I think there is just too much negative info out there on Uggla that the GMs will account for. If I was Jack Z, I’d bet on a bounceback from the young and once highly-touted Ackley before I bet on a 33 year old having his power return.
But boy is it nice to think about.
Bourn was born in ’82… you have Bourn born in ’92.
Bobby Hill, there’s nothing indecent about Dustin Ackley being from North Carolina (unless he’d gone to Duke), and I’d hardly call his home a slum. That said, Bobby, if you weren’t my son, I’d hug you.
With that bit of King of the Hill nonsense out of the way, two points:
1) I live in Seattle and watch the Mariners closely. I hadn’t thought of trying to pawn Uggla off on SEA. I think Jack Z would bite. Good notion.
2) Charlie, Mark’s note about affect/effect was true but not sufficient. In fact, either can be used as a verb or a noun, although the meanings Mark mentioned are the most common ones. The more complete lineup:
Affect (verb): to have an influence on something
Effect (verb): to make something happen
The second implies more complete power than the first. When you affect something you have an impact, but when you effect something you are the sole actor and bear sole responsibility for the result.
Affect (noun): complexion, demeanor, appearance (there are others, but this is the most common noun definition)
Effect (noun): impact, influence
Notice how the noun Effect mirrors the verb Affect: When I affect something, there is an effect. There is no such relationship between noun Affect and verb Effect, however. Their meanings are more disparate.
Some are probably bored by getting this specific, but I figured you brought it up and deserved a fuller explanation.
An F in English? Bobby, you SPEAK English. Probably my favorite line from Hank.
Anyway, yes, I do appreciate the fuller explanation. I usually try to use proper grammar when I’m online even if others insist on talking liek dis, but affect/effect has always given me trouble.
Thanks for adding that. Effect/affect is one of those things I understand how to use but don’t really know how to explain. This was pretty good.
IMO, Sean Gilmartin and Bethancourt should be off the table when trading for J.Upton. Teheran, Ahmed, Spruill +1 relief prospect would be ok with me though.
Opportunity cost, thy name is Braves Left Fielder.
The Nationals and their seemingly unending ability to sign and trade just got Soriano. Luckily for us he won’t pitch at 100% until his walk year. If they sign Vazquez their pitching depth will be pretty impressive. It seems like they’re forcing Wren to make a move or be doomed once again to the dreaded wild card crapshoot.
Soriano would certainly add depth with Storen potentially pushed out to high leverage situations. $14m per year for 2 years + a potential 3rd year is a very good deal for Boras to extract at this stage of the year.
Back to LF, I am all for an Upton deal should the pieces be fair (Both sides) and I think the Mariners package was a over pay by the Ms. I just can’t see Wren & Towers making a deal?
The platoon option is probably the best for us at the moment given our resources. Save the $7-10m and strengthen our roster during the season.
There is no reason why the Braves should not be trading for Justin Upton. The loss of McCann next year frees up the salary space. And Upton/Upton/Heyward would constitute the best offensive and defensive outfield in the majors. Make the deal already.
Great article and welcome to the CAC team. My preferences are:
1)Bourn- On a one year deal around $16M. Sweeten the deal by promising not to offer him Arb. Trade EOF for the best prospect you can to bring the salary into the cap room that we have. Improves farm system but lose draft pick.
2)Kitty Crack- Spend $ saved on extensions. This option leaves no execuse for Prado not to get 3-4 years. If Kitty Crack fails midway through the season then trade for a stop gap at the deadline when more players are avaialble due to their teams being out of contention.
3)Soriano- Give the cubs one of the guys you mentioned and take on $15M of his salary over the next two years. Reasonable risk/reward seems like a “Braves” type move.
4)Upton- As much as I would love to see Upton x2 + Heyward really see it as the forth best option. Your trade of Julio Teheran, Nick Ahmed/Bethancourt, Gilmartin/Spruill, and Juan Jaime makes since but seems a little lite compared to what Seattle offered.
I think that if we get J Upton that means Mac and his salary is gone in 14 so IMO we need to hold onto Bethancourt. Also if trading Teheran or Delgado I think that we need to hold on to Gilmartin. My offer would be Teheran, pick two of Nick Ahmed/Pastornicky/La Stella/Peraza, Juan Jaime, and one of Avilan or EOF. Basically my plan to come close to Seattle’s offer would be to add in an additional position piece to make up for not having as good of prospects. Sickels ranked Walker an A- and Franklin a B+ whereas Teheran is a B and Ahmed, La Stella, and Peraza are all B- (Pastornicky was a B- in 2012).
The Braves would gut their farm but with the almost all of the position players under contract for mulitple years it may not be an issue. Mac leave in 14 and his salary is used to pay for Upton. Bethancourt takes over and is a black hole at the plate but the lack of offense is made up for by Upton x2 + Heyward in the OF.
it’s a violation of the CBA so you can’t make written contracts agreeing not to give a qualifying offer. I guess you could make a handshake agreement, but the league would notice if Bourn had another good year and didn’t get one.
Plus, why would the Braves do that? Maybe if he agreed to play for like 2 yr $10m per yr they might do that, but otherwise, losing compensation just isn’t worth it.
Just a couple years ago Beltran had specific language in his contract that prohibited teams from offering him arbitration.
just a couple of years ago we had a different CBA.
Not to say he was right or wrong, just that it’s possible this was a change in the new CBA (I have no idea).
Yeah, they changed that rule due to the qualifying offer being required for compensation rather than the stupid Elias Rankings. (which makes sense, a player has the choice now to take the guaranteed $13.5m or to risk free agency, before middle tier players had so much to lose as arbitration “might” make them more than their prior salary, but free agency surely would, but those damn rankings hurt them.
I tried to find a link to the rule, but I keep getting the entire CBA and I really don’t feel lie digging through it again.
For some reason I laughed out loud at “Vinny Rottino – No”
Hahaha. I thought about taking him out, but left him in for comedic effect(?). Glad someone got some enjoyment out of it.
If we HAD to make a move for one of these options I would probably go: Bourn, Upton, Parra, Morse, Hart/Willingham, Soriano. If the Cubs ate more of Soriano’s contract I may be more willing to take him on more. I feel like I like Morse more than you too. Maybe some of that is the region I am in(Delaware, about 2 hours from DC) but I feel like Morse is a really solid hitter.
I’m firmly in the Justin Upton camp. I think having both Upton brothers would make both of their production increase and give us a good synergistic effect.
“it might take a major-league reliever like Eric O’Flaherty or Jonny Venters.”
If ANY major league team is still willing to trade us anybody of value for Jonny Venters, hurry up and do it before they change their mind!
Venters is nothing but a liability to me at this point. He has no control, is the worst-fielding pitcher I’ve ever seen, and he’s old enough that if he was ever going to get better at either of those things, he would have done it by now. If that is holding up the deal, for God’s sakes do it and kill two birds with one stone! Total win-win for the Braves.
“I’m sure most of us would rather trade Randall Delgado than Julio Teheran”
Teheran may have more talent, but his head is suspect. Delgado seems more able to handle the big league spotlight, although we have limited sample size for both.
I think Venters, Teheran and some lesser prospects for Upton would be a deal the Braves would never regret.
Personally, I’d do Teheran, Venters, Spruill, and a couple of throws ins such as Terdoslavich and Cunningham to see if that peaked Towers interest. If it did then pull the trigger.
I don’t think J-Terd would peak anyone’s interest.
I think if you look at Venter’s 2nd half split from last year, you would see he had returned,pretty much, to previous form.
I’d try and include EOF as he’s the one with the higher contract and is a free agent after 2013.
Yes, but O’Flaherty is worth keeping, unlike Venters.
Sorry to be so harsh, but relief pitchers can’t choke under pressure and make unforced errors, and I’ve seen Venters do it too many times to ever trust him again.
I think I saw it mentioned before, but having the Upton brothers would be fun from a marketing perspective. Feel like there’s a little bonus value there.
I think that also gives us an inside track to landing him. Yes, I know Upton has absolutely no say in the trade talks (other than the limited veto clause), but you know he’s got to be practically begging Arizona to trade him to the Braves.
If no other offers come up, we’ve already seen that we can match the deal Seattle made. Maybe even get a bit of a discount as the market tightens up.
I guess the Nats lost confidence in Storen (assume Soriano will be closing now). That’s a nice 7-8-9.
Give it time. In 5 years the Nationals will be the Phillies. They will have overpaid guys that are exiting their prime.
What guys will be exiting their prime? The only 30+ year olds that are starters–including the rotation–are Laroche and Werth, and Werth is the only one signed past his prime. The Nationals probably have the best team in all of baseball and every question mark (Haren, Werth) has a failsafe (Detwiler, Morse). Unless the Braves repeat or improve in every facet of the team, we won’t be winning the East in 2013. Our rotation needs to stay healthy and deal with its issues and injuries (Beachy, Beachy). Heyward needs to learn how to hit lefties, Freeman needs to keep trending upwards, Uggla needs to not be shitty, McCann needs to bounce back and stay healthy, and we need to figure out LF/3B. The help down on the farm is very thin with not much of a calvary available if things go awry. I think the Braves have a great team but the Nats seem to have every question answered.
have you looked at where the Braves are going to be in 5 years most likely? Things are going to be worse in 5 years, not better. Unless Wren pulls off some miraculous drafts/UFA signings and the farm works absolute magic.
In 5 years I think it’s wayy too hard to tell what the braves will be like. Heyward,Freeman,Simmons,Ahmed could be the positional core (depending on extensions) and all would be under 30. The rotation could be Minor,Beachy,Teheran,Gilmartin,Wood,Sims…etc There would be $$$ still to fill the roster up too with BJ,Uggla,Mac,Huddy all gone.
IMO,since Wren has been pretty clever by not signing any players to long term deals into their mid to late 30′s for $100M+ , it makes it hard to predict the teams future over much more than 2 or 3 years.
One thing we KNOW, is that the team won’t be 35 years old and expensive in 5 years.
I think based solely on the reliance on our farm system and not the free agent market, it’s safe to say the team might be in trouble down the road. Look at how the roster has been constructed since the team has slipped from the top third in payroll. Our lineup last season consisted of 6 home grown players, and 2 trades (which included prospects). The rotation included 6 home grown pitchers, 1 trade, and 1 free agent. The bullpen is always a rotating cast but is based around products of the farm. Our current best position player down on the farm is a toolsy prospect who is amazing with the glove but has been shit with the bat after being aggressively pushed through the ranks, and trust me Wren is holding his breath waiting to see how CBet rebounds this year. Some big name prospects such as Salcedo and Lipka have been a total bust so far. Medlen, Beachy, Simmons, etc show how guys develop and guys come out of nowhere, but it’s nice to have a few top 50 “sure thing” prospects. We have a lot of mid-back rotation arms and 4th outfielder type guys, but other than that the system is pretty weak, which doesn’t make the future look so bright.
This inspired me to write an amusing blog on a forum i am on.
http://www.chopnation.com/boards/blog.php?b=1357
don’t take it too seriously, it’s just idle speculation and hopefulness for goodness sake!
Not sure why you think Venters would be a better package than EOF – he’s cheaper for us, is more than capable (despite his somewhat unlucky stats last season), and IMO, EOF has a much higher trade value. Thoughts? This doesn’t have to have anything to do with J. Upton by the way.
Because Venters isn’t a free agent until 2016. EOF = 2014.
The correct answer is Justin Upton, and it isn’t even debatable. If Upton can be had for Delgado/Teheran, EOF/Venters, Ahmed/CBet and one other pitching prospect, Wren simply MUST make that deal.
JUpton would be that “above average regular” for LF, and he could potentially be the NL MVP in any of the next 3 years.
For that Wren essentially gives up his 6th starter, an expensive setup guy that can be replaced by Avilan, a position prospect that is either blocked (Ahmed) or almost completely inept with the bat (CBet), and a pitching prospect nobody will miss 5 years from now because the Braves organization churns out mediocre pitching prospects like clockwork.
Wren can fix LF for the next 3 years with JUpton, and he needs to make it happen. Now.
Of course Wren knows he CAN get Upton. But if Upton’s market keeps getting more narrow and eventually ends up as Braves or bust, why would he pay something similar to what the M’s offered? (considered an overpay)
The DBakcs have backed themselves into a corner by nearly ensuring that Upton must be traded. Knowing that gives Wren all the leverage he needs, especially if Upton’s suitors keep dropping in numbers. Justin Upton knows what he is going to make. Why would he play for a team that has done all of this to him? The Dbacks will eventually face the option of keeping a pissed off, unlikely to produce RF for $9mil, or they can take a lesser return and reap whatever upside they get for cheap. I get the feeling Wren is in the drivers seat here, and he will push this until he gets the deal he wants.
Is there any concern that if we were able to swing a deal for Justin that in future negotiations with him and his brother the organization will be at a disadvantage? Two thirds of our outfield will know every detail of each other’s deal and negotiations. What happens when we don’t extend one or the other?
Mark great stuff man, But this is my question to you or anyone else….Give me your top 3 or 5 names. Right after the World Series, what moves would you have made to ensure that you get the CF/leadoff, catcher, and LF you wanted? Also, would you have waited a little longer on trading T. Hanson for a bat instead of an arm?