Does Justin Upton Fit?
January 16, 2013 at 5:17 pm by Mark Smith under Atlanta Braves
One of the questions you seemed to ask a lot in the comments have been about the Braves’ payroll for this season and whether or not a Justin Upton contract would affect the team’s ability to sign players like Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman, Craig Kimbrel, and/or Kris Medlen. Because I can read your minds and anticipate your needs, I was already working on salary projections (okay, sure, wondering about salary is a logical progression step). Below is a chart that outlines the Braves’ roster and payroll outlook for the next five years.
Once you figure out the organized chaos of the chart, you should note a few things:
- The Braves currently have around $80-85M tied up (adding some money for call-ups) for 2013. If the Braves use a payroll around $95M like they did for 2012, they have roughly $10M left. That’s enough to get Justin Upton (owed $9.75M in 2013), probably not enough for Michael Bourn, and enough for a smaller acquisition in order to leave payroll flexibility for a mid-season acquisition.
- With Brian McCann and Martin Prado looming as free-agents, it’s time to start wondering about potential replacements. As far as catchers go, John Buck, Jesus Flores, and AJ Pierzynski represent the best catchers available through free-agency, so that’s not exactly a lot. Regarding third basemen, Mark Reynolds, Kevin Youkilis, Michael Young, and Placido Polanco are potential free-agents, so while there are a few more options, there still aren’t many. Christian Bethancourt (and maybe Evan Gattis, but please don’t expect that) is the most realistic internal option, but I’m not sure how realistic it really is. I suppose a Gerald Laird/LH platoon could work. Juan Francisco is the internal candidate for 3B, and we’d have another year of production to work off of.
- Depending on how the Braves choose to fill LF, the possible free-agent options next off-season would be Jacoby Ellsbury, Curtis Granderson, Carlos Beltran, Shin-Soo Choo, Nelson Cruz, Corey Hart, and Hunter Pence. So there’s quite a bit of talent there. Should the Braves hold onto prospects, they could sign 2 of McCann/Prado/FA LF and fill the other spot with a trade or Francisco.
- Looking at the rotation, Hudson and Maholm are free-agents at the end of the season, but at the moment, Randall Delgado, Sean Gilmartin, and Zeke Spruill are all legitimate options to be ready by the start of 2014. Those guys would be back-of-the-rotation options, but that’s fine with Medlen, Beachy, Minor, and Teheran to head up the rest of the rotation. Trading one or two of those guys will obviously deplete the depth, but JR Graham and Aaron Northcraft are other back-of-the-rotation possibilities come sometime in 2014/beginning of 2015. Free-agent possibilities are Scott Baker, AJ Burnett, Chris Carpenter, Jorge De La Rosa, Gavin Floyd, Matt Garza, Dan Haren, Josh Johnson, Tim Lincecum, Adam Wainwright, and Edinson Volquez, so there are some options there.
- The bullpen is set through 2015 except for Eric O’Flaherty, and Luis Avilan could be an easy internal replacement. There are plenty of possible bullpen guys in the organization, so this is not an area of concern at the moment.
- The overall roster, especially the starters and starting rotation, is really young and talented. Yippee!
Now, will Justin Upton affect the Braves’ ability to sign players long-term? I put Justin Upton in the projection and used comparables to fill out key players’ arbitration salaries for the next few seasons.
Because you’ll want to ask about what comparables I used: (note: I aimed high to make sure I hit upper limits of possible scenarios in order to see if there really is room)
- Freddie Freeman -> Adam LaRoche
- Andrelton Simmons -> left out because his arbitration years come after Upton
- Jason Heyward -> Justin Upton
- Kris Medlen -> Guess because who knows
- Brandon Beachy -> Matt Cain
- Mike Minor -> Jon Niese
- Julio Teheran -> Ditto Simmons
- Craig Kimbrel -> Jonathan Papelbon
- Jonny Venters -> Matt Thornton with a little EOF at the end
- Jordan Walden -> Mike Adams
These are the “salary projections” with Upton and the arbitration figures. As you can see, everyone fits. This year’s budget hits around $92M, not including possible call-ups. 2014’s budget loses ~$40M from McCann, Prado, Hudson, Maholm, and O’Flaherty, but after arbitration raises and such, only about $20-25M remains to refill those 5 spots. But that money is only there for 2014. Arbitration raises and such (again) begin eating into that and only about $5M remains for 2015.
This is where the new TV deals with ESPN and FOX come in. While the regional Braves deal won’t be much help, the new league-wide deals should add $20-25M (over the past deals) in each team revenues starting in 2014, but how much can or will go into the team payroll is unknown.
Should the payroll stay the same, bringing back Prado and/or McCann becomes very difficult. Prado might be able to be squeezed into that budget if the Braves could get an extension/FA contract under $10M a year, but that would really restrict what else the Braves could do. McCann would likely be gone in this scenario, but we’d probably rather have the mid-20s Upton that an entering-his-30s McCann.
Should the payroll increase, the Braves would have a choice between Prado and McCann, but they probably won’t be able to keep both. Either way, however, the Braves would have some room to make an addition or two to support what was there. It’s nicer to have a bit more money to work with.
Not trading for Upton would obviously help the Braves retain much more financial flexibility for the next few seasons as well as the prospects/players needed to acquire him, but it would weaken the 2013 team. As for 2014, it depends on the payroll. Without a payroll increase, the outlook looks similar with a re-signed Prado or Upton, but with an increased payroll, Prado and Justin Upton look better than Prado and McCann.
So to answer your original question, trading Upton doesn’t really affect the ability to sign any of the younger players to extensions because the free-agent seasons won’t kick in until after Upton’s contract is up. Their arbitration seasons are already penciled in. But trading for Upton does affect the futures of Prado and McCann, whose contracts are not already penciled in for the next few seasons and would need substantial amounts of money to retain.
In essence your question amounts to, Justin Upton for 3 years and Prado/McCann (maybe) or Prado and/or McCann and the players traded with no assurances Prado or McCann would be here post-2013?
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I agree, the team would be better served using that money on Prado and J.Upton than Prado and Mac. (though we all love Mac) I think the production and value potential is much higher with the former.
Besides, it’s pretty easy to find a mediocre hitting catcher with good defensive value. That’s pretty much half the league.
Not that I’m saying Mac will be a mediocre hitting catcher. Just saying that there were 17 catchers last year with positive WAR and 14 with a 2 WAR or above. I think we can find someone to provide that value for half of Mac’s probable free agent price.
why are my comments awaiting moderation?
so it sounds like, at least for this aspect of the discussion, you’re in the pro-upton camp
The question I kept seeing was “Can we afford Justin Upton, and how does it affect signing the kids long-term?” I’d definitely be in favor of trading for Upton, and I prefer him long-term to McCann (I don’t see who wouldn’t). The idea was to give everyone an idea of what the payroll looks like.
I just dont understand why the GM is so attached to our young prospects. How many times do we have to make this mistake before we learn. Prospects fail every year. Why not get proven talent that will also create a huge buzz around Atlanta. You just lost Chipper after 2 decades with the team. Everyone is wondering who is worth coming to watch and what the new identity of the team is going to be. How great would it be to have the upton boys in the A.T.L.!!!
I feel like we are always preparing for the future. At some point you have to make the move to win today or else (next year) never comes.
I agree. Does anyone remember when the “Jones Brothers” (Chipper and Andruw) were in the lineup? That was a very exciting time to be a Braves Fan.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/big-leaguers-prospects-and-uncertainty/
“I just dont understand why the GM is so attached to our young prospects. How many times do we have to make this mistake before we learn.”
McCann, Heyward, Kimbrell, Freeman, Beachy, Medlen, Prado
“Everyone is wondering who is worth coming to watch and what the new identity of the team is going to be.”
McCann, Heyward, Kimbrell, Freeman, Beachy, Medlen, Prado
And for every success story you mentioned there are two that were busts, besides there is no excitment behind any of those players you mention, they are all ho hum good/great players. And Beachy and Medlen both came out of nowhere and won jobs and became great they were not highly touted prospects so you cant count them and Heyward hasn’t performed to everyones expectations at this point. He is good dont get me wrong, but not as good as we were promised. We need attention getters aka the Jones boys, remember the days of the Crime dog? or how about the fearsome 5, Maddox, Glavine, Smoltz, Avery, Merker? We need some thing that draws and J Upton would DRAW.
There is no excitement about those “ho-hum” players Jason Heyward and Craig Kimbrel?
Sorry, I like the whole “Upton brothers” thing as much as anybody does, but to say we don’t have any young players with a “buzz” about them is just factually incorrect.
Mark,
You broke down the arbitration scenarios really well, but what about extensions for some of the arbitration-eligible players? Would you anticipate contract extension salaries to fall in line with arb-year salaries, or would the Braves pay a little more in the short term?
For instance, if I’m the Braves front office, I want Jason Heyward for life (or whatever). Does committing more money to a left-fielder now and for the next few years affect the sort of long-term contract I am able to offer Heyward (or Prado, Medlen, Beachy, Minor, Kimbrel, Simmons, Freeman) for life (or whatever)?
I would anticipate the arbitration seasons, even in an extension, to basically resemble a normal progression during that time.
I’m not one to brown-nose the talent, but these have been really good reads. He make take some leaps of faith on projections, but I like the comps in this article – and I really like your not reaching to find comps for Medlen.
While its clear you have no life outside of these articles; please keep it up for our entertainment.
If I had a voice at the table (and I don’t) I’d trade for Upton and this would be McCann’s final year.
Trading for Upton would also add another player you have to consider signing long-term once his contract is up assuming he performs the way everyone expects him to perform. I still say go all in for Justin Upton though unless the Diamondbacks’ asking price is just unreasonable. How many chances do you get to acquire a player of Justin Upton’s caliber at the age of 25?
I like the idea of siblings on the same team. Lets try that one for a couple of years for team chemistry. I would offer McCann an extension with a home town discount and offer Heyward an extension with the expectation that he will follow the money as did Francouer. I would offer the store to Prado who like Jeter is the penultimate professional ball player. With that maybe we could get a few years of devue vue from the 90′s in the $90mm updated economy.
I know this is off topic… And I know his time was up in atl but its sad to see Moylan heading to another team.
Only as a personality. Gearrin is a younger/better/cheaper version of him. I miss Will Ohman.
Yes it was sad to see him go. I hope he cracks the big league roster in LA. Love that guy.
This guy, Mark Smith, is awesome. Keep writing man, I love your analysis. I love the break down of all possible scenarios.
This guy, David, can comment whenever he wants.
Let’s freaking do it. Resign Prado, get rid of B-Mac (even though I don’t want to, it must be done) after this year, trade Maholm at the deadline for someone (if Beachy is ready). Go get Justin, go for it. This team has a great bullpen and a budding rotation. A very good line up on paper that can be vastly improved with the acquisition of an MVP candidate.
Having Heyward, BJ and Justin, Freddie, Andrelton, Martin as core players along with Minor, Medlen, Beachy as the cornerstone of the rotation is paramount. These guys have a chance to do something special if they play up to their potential.
Go for it, get Justin. Trade Venters, Spurill, Ahmed and one other player for him. See what Towers says and go from there. The time to win is now!
In getting the right handed bat of Upton, does that decrease our need from right handed power with Uggla?
Let’s say we get Upton. Do you think anyone would be willing to trade for Uggla if we eat part of his salary? Of course, we would then have a hole at 2B, but we could probably get someone with better defensive value at a lower cost.
If the Braves can acquire Justin Upton, I think the time to trade Uggla is now. He still has some trade value. Its reasonable to expect something of a bounce back year in 2013, and its conceivable that some team may still be willing to take on most of his contract.
Even with a moderate bounce back this year, its hard to see anyone taking him on for 2014 and 2015 at $13 million per.
Come on man give it up. No one is going to trade for Uggla and whatever we get in return including salary relief isn’t going to be worth it at this point.
Agreed. I envison the Uggla situation very simular outcome to the Lowe situation. Uggla will be a Brave until the last year of his contract and then they will trade him for whatever salary relief they can get.
yer right, trading Uggla now would only result in one of those fantasy football deals where the only way you can improve your mediocre QB is by trading one of your great running backs and backup QB for their good QB and backup RB. in the long run, you AT BEST, end up breaking even.
Unless you find a sucker….
Thanks for the great article on the depressing reality of 21st century baseball for a mid market club. The Braves almost always seem to be one piece away from being a top flight team. And then one of two things happen; either a) the best FA available is Derek Lowe or b) they have to sell the farm to get him. It´s good that the Braves have been run so well from a talent perspective (except for the Texeira trades). Regardless of what happens I´m pretty excited about the roster and thrilled that we aren´t paying Cody Ross over 8 M a season.
My opinion is Uggla will be with us for the duration of the current deal. It would take a rebound season this year and for another club to forget about the past 2 seasons for a trade to happen. The option of eating some of Uggla’s contract may tempt another club but realistically Uggla is here to stay.
I would imagine McCann will get a 1 year qualifying offer from Braves next year ($13-14m) and end up a FA. If that happens and Bethancourt is not ready we may have to go the trade route for a young catcher? The other assumption is also that Gattis will remain a OF/bench player and not a FT catcher.
Off topic….Do we know if the mentioned extra shared revenue is on “Equal” share basis? If so Loria will be laughing all the way to the bank!
Does Seattle have any more prospects / young players rope for the picking? Their trade for Morse was so dumb.
The Nats have had a heck of a offseason. The trades of Span and now Morse were both clear wins for the Nats. The Soriano deal is a head scratcher but it did shore up their biggest weakness for the next two years. Dan Haren on a one year contract was a better decision then Edwin Jackson on a four year. The ways the division is shapping up IMO it will be the Braves/Nats at the top for the forseeable future.
I would say Kris Medlen can pretty much having Tim Hudson’s contract in the future. I always consider Tim is underpaid. Maybe Kris can match Tim’s career number but it will be really hard because Tim had a great career.
I know I’m way off topic here, but would trying to sign Bourne for a 1 year deal be a good idea? It would make our outfield one of the fastest in the league and it would give us the option to go after Jacoby Ellsbury, Curtis Granderson, Carlos Beltran, or Hunter Pence next year without trading away prospects. I know Bora$ is playing the waiting game to find a desperate suitor, but it could back fire on him if the Braves are the only team still interested.
In the article the other day, I said it was the best option, but it’s probably not likely. One, the Braves may not have the money to spend. Two, if Bourn will accept a one-year deal, more suitors are likely to come, driving the price back up. Three, I’m not sure Bourn would come back to Atlanta to play LF unless he doesn’t really have any other options.
Two questions, when comparing Walden, did you mean Mike Adams instead of Matt Adams? Also, since more people seem to be somewhat on board (or realizing) it’s going to be very difficult to re-sign McCann after this season, could he be offered up in a trade?
I know most still love him and want him to stay, but he is approaching 30 and the monetary figures really just don’t work out, considering the last contract featured a “hometown discount” which he wouldn’t be likely to accept this time around.
The reason I bring up including him in a deal is the fact the D’backs have a very good catcher in Montero and with the right combination of players, going after both Upton and Montero while including McCann doesn’t seem to be THAT much of a reach. -OR- Does everyone think the D’backs think Montero > McCann?
Montero is actually a year older than McCann. Interesting. That makes me think the D’backs might be willing to think about that swap. Personally, I’d be willing to go that route for a year or two until Bethancourt or another player were ready to step in.
McCann’s last contract didn’t really have a ‘hometown discount’ as much as it had a ‘injury risk possibility’ discount.
I did mean Mike Adams. I’ll go change that.
As for trading McCann for Montero, there’s no real reason for the DBacks to do it. They have no one to take over post-2013. Montero is nearly as good and is signed relatively reasonably. And McCann won’t be ready at the start of the season because of injury. Making this trade fits the Braves’ needs way more than it fits the DBacks’.
I saw the other day where Dave, whatever his name his from the AJC, tweeted that the payroll was going to be around $98 mil. Is there any validity to this or is this guy just throwing darts in a dark room and magically came up with this number?
@JR I assume you’re talking about Dave Obrien from ajc? If you can wade through some of his stupid bs posts, he actually gives a lot of good information on his blog, and got the $98 mil figure from CEO Terry McGuirk.
Here’s the ariticle where he quotes McGuirk at $98MM.
http://www.ajc.com/news/sports/baseball/braves-ceo-says-tv-deal-isnt-crippling/nTyd4/
I absolutely think Wren needs to go after Upton, and I’m sure that is what he’s doing. The longer he waits, the more Justin Upton gets upset, and the smaller his market gets. The DBacks have nothing in Upton as far as on-field value, so Wren is in the driver’s seat.
If we sign Upton, McCann’s departure seems to be almost certain. If he has a good enough 1st half to show other teams that he’s healthy, I’m comfortable going with Laird and trading Mac. We may be able to get a September call up/2014 MLB ready prospect from a contender. Bethancourt could step in and probably post a positive WAR just with his defense, and any amount that he hits is a plus. Like Laird, with upside and power potential.
Soooo… after hitting .243 / .275 / .291 in AA last year, what do you expect CBet to do in Atlanta? I know his defense is great and his offense is a plus on top.. but he needs to be able to provide SOME offense. He could be the greatest defender of all time behind the dish, but if he hits 200 / 210 / 230 then… it’s just not enough to stick around on any team. He needs more time in the minors to figure it out.
Even if we got Mickey Mantle to play LF I still wouldn’t want to dump McCann for whatever you think you can get for 3 months of an above average catcher in the last year of his contract. You would seriously want to go into a playoff run with Laird, CBet, or Gattis bumbling around back there?
Laird in 10 seasons: 6.6 WAR
McCann in 8 seasons: 28.7 WAR
CBet was playing through an injury and obviously still needs time to figure it out. This is 7 months down the road, and he will have played A LOT of baseball in between now and then. For a team like the Braves, you have to part ways with good players and take what you can get. The Rays will be trading David Price soon for a group of minor league players. The A’s won’t be able to keep a single pitcher in their current rotation once they get close to FA, and they will trade them and take what they can get. Teams get desperate around the deadline (2012 Dodgers, Rangers?) and will give up a good future for an immediate impact.
Since this is all dependent on Upton being on the Braves, I wouldn’t mind replacing Mac’s production with his, and having Laird (probably the best bunter in baseball) suck it up in the 8 hole.
In the case of a run with people ‘bumbling around back there,’ ask:
Nats (Kurt Suzuki)
Reds (Ryan Hannigan)
Yankees (Martin/Cervelli)
Tigers (Avila)
A’s (Kottaras)
Rangers (Soto)
It is possible, and acceptable, to be a really good team and have a hole in your lineup. Every playoff team had a hole, and we can’t forget that the Braves are pretty damn solid 1-7. If we can get a cheap future contributor for, as you said, 3 months of Mac, why wouldn’t you?
Some of those catchers are pretty good. Hanigan would be a 4+ WAR player if he started all year. Martin and Avila will probably be 3.5+ WAR this season. The others Soto, Suzuki, & Kotteras would be more like 1.5-2 WAR a season if they started for whole season. Laird at best would only be 1.5 WAR a season if started all year. Of course a whole season of McCann at this point is probably only about 4 WAR at best. So if we can can improve more than 2 WAR somewhere else by moving McCann.
My point is that you DON’T TRADE AWAY a valuable position player mid-season or at the deadline if you’re in a playoff race. You just don’t. Especially when the production of the replacement would be only about replacement level. Gattis is apparently awful at catcher and CBet can’t hit. He hasn’t hit a goddamn thing since rookie ball and it’s incredibly unrealistic to include him in Atlanta’s plans at this point. And we’re not exactly solid 1-7 either, since there are too many question marks on the roster, at least compared to the Nats. Will the league catch up to Andrelton? Will Freddie continue northwards or continue to be a middling first baseman? Can Heyward hit lefties? Can Uggla hit at all? If FatJuan is starting can he produce on a regular basis? Which BJ Upton will we see this season?
Since this situation is completely based on whether or not we trade for Upton, FatJuan is not an option. If you’re going to go about it that way, even the Angels have questions. Will the league catch up with Trout? Is Pujols going to start his decline? Which Josh Hamilton are they going to get? Is Jared Weaver’s hair going to be as distracting as it has been in the past?
The Braves are VALUABLE 1-7 and that is that. Many teams would love to have the roster that Atlanta has, it just so happens that Washington is the one team that has it better. Just because we aren’t a 100 win team doesn’t mean we’re shitty. And I refuse to take ‘you just don’t’ as an explanation of why you KNOW keeping McCann is a better option than trading him. We aren’t at the deadline. I’m not screaming ‘TRADE HIM, TRADE HIM!’ But if we trade for Upton and McCann’s departure becomes inevitable, why not see what you can get? How about McCann and a prospect for Olt and Pierzynski (who is on a one year contract)? If the Rangers are desperate enough, I absolutely would do it. Hell, we agreed to send Delgado to the Cubs for 3 months of Dempster (!!!). And now Delgado could be the biggest piece in a trade that nets us a 4 win player.
Just because you don’t agree doesn’t mean it’s wrong. And I’m not saying it’s right, but it could be. Open your mind every once and again.
Whoahhh!!! Hol up on the “open your mind” fallacy stuff. all that means is “you disagree with me , hence are closed minded” if he wasn’t open minded, he would have never considered your plan, and then presented a reasonable argument against it. That argument drives me crazy as its intellectually dishonest and is really just a disguised insult designed to make you look good and the other person look “closed mined” hence “bad”.
The reality is, for the future, sure Upton is the better bet. But for 2013, barring a collapse of the team, you don’t trade Mac away. You make him the QO and if he takes it, you deal with it, if he doesn’t , then you look around for a league avg type to fill his place with. Trading him during a winning season to “get something” would get you fired as a GM eventually.
I think a move like that gets a GM fired immediately, not eventually.
If Wren swapped 3 months of McCann “and a prospect” for Olt and Pierzynski, he should be crowned emperor for life of Baseball Universe. And that prospect could be any that we have in our system.
Am I off base or doesn’t basic economics come into play with all that new t.v. revenue? If everybody gets an extra $20 million evenly; than isn’t everyone going to spend that money on trying to get the same players? Thus, all that extra revenue does is increase the pay threshold for players. In an ideal situation, everyone having the same money, essentially means that no one got any money at all. Besides minor differences in how much owners keep, I don’t expect the extra revenue is going to do much, long term, for any club’s wins so much as it helps Owners bank accounts.
Regardless, thanks for this analysis, I was really wanting to know what salary would look like for the future.
I love coming to CAC, and Mr. Smith, I believe you just made that experience much better. Great articles lately. I agree we you should definately sign upton. Having the brothers together would give them some personal competition and they would push each other to peak performance (hopefully) and also would be a great revenue booster and story for the team.
I agree with many of the posters here. I know we have good prospects, but we covet them way to much and none are really that big league tested and approved. Most of them will never ever see the bigs and if they do it doesn’t mean they will be above average WAR like we will immediately get with upton. Move ‘em. As for uptons attitude, it isn’t as bad as other players out there and the culture of ATL is well known to be positive to and for the players so hopefully if we do get him, prado, bmac, and the rest of vets will get him ATL mindset ready.
It’s the job of GM’s to over tout their prospects, and it’s the nature of fans to do the same. Wren wouldn’t be doing his job if he just opened the floodgates and said “here ya go Towers! take wtvr you want!”
it’s better to be shrewd and make no deal sometimes (especially when there are alternative options) than it is to just make a deal or a signing because you can. (ask the Red Sox and Dodgers and Angels about this a few years down the road when they are eating tons of cash for their players to play elsewhere)
Im not saying let anyone take our prospects for free. I am saying specifically we cant keep julio and randall for forever, so play them or trade them to help the team.
Remember, Teheran and Delgado are only 21/22 respectively. Alot of people say trade them, they aren’t going to reach their initials levels success, they have topped out…….Again remember, they are only 21/22. 5-7 years from their prime folks. I am okay with having them seasoned for a little while longer. The only reason it seems like forever is because they have been “major league ready” for what seems like years.
Mark, Thanks for this article. It gives me a lot more information with regard to potential trades, internal options and how they mesh together.
Based upon the numbers in your charts I would prefer to see the Braves go with internal options because in my opinion Justin Upton does not put the Braves over the top.
I believe that for the trade package it would take to get J Upton you could add a couple of more pieces and overwhelm the Marlins with an offer for Stanton. If the Braves are going to deplete their prospect pool then let’s do it for a player that could be the ultimate difference in winning a World Series. Stanton comes with the additional benefit of lower salary giving the Braves more financial flexibility going forward.
I am not talking just true value for Stanton I am talking an overwhelming value that they would be crazy to refuse.
If we paid whatever the asking price would be for Stanton the Braves would immediately become the Yankees but with no money. No farm system, no backups for injury, etc. It would literally probably take our top 5 prospects plus Medlen or Beachy to get Stanton.
Even if it depletes the farm system to get Stanton I do not believe that the Braves have to give up Medlin, Minor or Beachy to accomplish the trade.
The Marlins want young very good prospects. Its how they won their two World Series (with an assist from Eric Gregg). I believe that you overwhelm them with high end prospects. If so the Braves then have the next three years as a window for a World Series. Since Stanton’s salary is set and considerably lower than his market value the Braves have enough money to sign Prado and probably McCann, unless CBet really steps up this year with his bat.
I would take some down years 4 and 5 years out to have a legitamate chance to win the World Series over the next 3 years. I believe the Braves are one player away and that player is Stanton.
The Braves also have three years to build back their minor league system so that after this three year window the Braves could be competitive within a couple of years.
The Braves are set for the next 3 years right now except for the last piece, albeit the most important piece – Stanton.
You say “overwhelm them with high-end prospects” as if the Braves are brimming with them. Other than Teheran, the Braves don’t have any “high-end” prospects. The best deal, if we’re only talking prospects, I think the Braves could make would be Teheran, Graham/Delgado, Mauricio Cabrera, Bethancourt, and Jose Peraza. That would give the Marlins some high-ceiling talent placed throughout the minors, but that’s a lot of ifs for a franchise talent like Stanton.
One trade scenario I think would be interesting would be to put Freddie Freeman in a package along with Teheran and others. Freeman would be cheaper over the next few years while still giving the Marlins a guy they could probably flip for more prospects down the road.
And I don’t think even that is enough.
Stanton will cost less to go to the AL than the NL probably, and less to go to any other NL division than the east. Interdivision price would be something like “give us all your cheap players”.
Upton has 6 win potential. It’s really that simple. IF they made the deal and got 15 WAR out of him for 3 years (very possible) it’d be a steal at the expected price in $$ and prospects. anything more than that is just extra cheese, grilled onions and double bacon.
Dang it, dude, now I want a burger with all the fixin’s.
Would the Benefit of J Upton and BJ Upton, bring in the extra revenue from ticket sales? This will work for the first couple of months, but can continue if the Braves are winning. And if the Upton Brothers (especially J. Upton) is performing at the levels of expectation.
Would This Revenue help with long term possibilities of Prado, McCann, or J Upton?
With the extra money from the hype and the TV deals (ofcourse we dont know how much is going to be payroll related). Liberty Media see this as an opportunity to raise the Payroll to 110m-120m a year???
AZ knows J. Upton better than any other organization and they’re doing everything possible to get rid of him despite the fact he has a good contract and is entering his prime. Totally makes sense.
And forget all this fancy money talk mumbo jumbo. Just glue Gattis and Bethancourt together and dominate. It’s that easy. Gatthancourt will be a beast.
The Brewers and Padres sure knew Gary Sheffield better than any other team too…. still traded him
That would work if you could actually dr Frankenstein them together.
And as for Upton I really don’t buy the “not a winning player” crapola.
How many major league ready players were in the Texiera trade?
I believe it was just Salty
Also the key player that finalized the deal was a Single A player Neftali Perez
Tehran or Delgado are as ready as Salty was at that time.
Gilmartin, Graham, CBet, Jaime, Ahmed, Gattis, Francisco, are good combinations of players that have a high possibility of being ready between this year and two years down the road.
That still leaves some other highly thought of younger talent to pick from as well.
If the Marlins wanted a bullpen ready player then I would let them choose between Vavaro, Martinez and Venters.
I believe that a combination of the players named plus a few others not named the Braves could pull of the deal.
I think it will take 7 players.
Win now or at least give the Braves fans a reason to believe that a World Series is a possibility.
I believe that Stanton and Heyward along with Simmons, Prado, Medlin, Minor and Beachy would put some fans in the stands.
Now that you have me fired up thinking about the possibilities here is what I would offer
Their choice between Tehren and Delgado
Their choice between Vavaro, Venters or Martinez
Plus their choice of any 5 minor leaguers and include Francisco in that list
If this were the offer do you think you could put a package together ?
If it came down to it I might go 8 players depending upon who the first seven players were that the Marlins chose
Based on the list of players to choose from I would pick
Tehren, Venters, Graham, Gilmartin, Gattis, Fransisco and Jaime
Once I got Stanton this would be my lineup
Uggla. (his ability to take walks plus the batters behind him – he would see better
pitches to hit)
Prado
Heyward
Stanton
Freeman
Upton
McCann
Simmons
This is like an American League batting order and a National league pitching staff and bullpen
Stanton would raise the bar offensively and challenge Heyward and Upton to pick up their offensive games
The Braves would have a good outfield defense and a good infield defense, a good starting staff and an excellent bullpen
These are my reasons for doing whatever it takes, short of giving up any of the everyday players, to get Stanton
That’s an idiotic idea to trade 7 players for anybody. seriously. SEVEN?
not to mention that Stanton is gone come 2016 and now you have no rotation cuz you traded 3 starters away ….
“Idiotic” maybe to you
When is the last time the Braves had a serious shot at the World Series?
For three straight years of a shot at the World Series I would be “idiotic”
Now that Atlanta is a mid market spender its chances of a World Series are a wing and a prayer. Give me three straight years of a real World Series opportunity and I would take some suffering in the future to build back the club.
The Marlins have won two World Series selling their best players and having an overwhelming number of prospects to finally put together a low cost competitive World Series team
What I am suggesting is a mid market idea of a similar scenario, just diferent than anything you have ever heard of before.
For the Braves the next three years are going to be exciting. I would take my chances on Stanton being the final piece of an already good club.
So you want to watch a shitty team for 5 years for this supposed “shot at the world series” because we traded our top 7 prospects? I think we like to deal in realism here in the club. Please no more ludicrous Stanton trade ideas.
The original point is look at the package that it will take to get Upton. Three maybe four players.
Then what additional players would have to be added to acquire Stanton.
Upton’s a good player.
Stanton’s a game changer.
The reason I love this blog is its good information and free flow of ideas
If I were in management I would be crazy, if I knew what the package needed to get Upton was, not to consider what else would have to be added to obtain Stanton
Then, and only then, would I know whether the deal it would take for Stanton was too much or not.
Best seasons for each:
Justin Upton’s 24 year old season: 6.4 WAR.
Giancarlo Stanton’s 23 year old season: 5.8 WAR
Now obviously Stanton is cheaper and under control for longer which makes him more valuable, but let’s not discredit Upton too much. He was worth only 2.5 WAR last season but his Fld was down from 5.5 > 7.7 > -2.1 so I think that number might be a little off. Power numbers were down but OBP was still high. I think he just had an off year and isn’t in decline. Stanton is just an unrealistic option where Upton could (and would) be worth the cost.
Vivabeta
Good point on the WAR comparison.
I still like Stanton’s salary, his consistency and his being familiar with the National League East division.
My feeling is that McCann will not get back to the All Star playing level that Braves fans were accustomed to and so the front office will (unfortunately) forced to let him go. This leaves that position as a question mark for 2014. Justin Upton is undeniably a great player with many great years ahead but I am not convinced that those years would be best spent in a Braves uniform.
I love the idea of having Jason Heyward for 6+ years and having the home grown talent stay for many, many more years. The problem is you can’t have players like Medlen, Beachy, Freeman, Kimbrel, and Heyward for years without making sacrifices and I think Justin Upton ought to be one of those sacrifices. The NL East is going to be brutal this year. The Mets and Marlins are not a concern but the Phillies have to contend this year with their starters getting older. The Nats are a 90 win team and have counted on contending this year and the next but that is where the Braves are different. We have a team that can compete for 4 years if we can get our players the contracts they need to stick around. Our farm system has given us a great hand so why go all in for 2013? The Mariners were willing to break the bank for Upton but we are not them, we are not desperate. I see the Braves team that they have right now in the playoffs and once we are there who knows what will happen? If we give up the prospects and cash for Upton’s salary that could potentially lock down a great team for years just to acquire Justin Upton then I think the Braves are selling themselves short.
I don’t think that the Braves are willing to sacrifice their financial flexibility in the coming years to take on Justin Upton’s contract.
I think that’s the whole point of financial flexibility.
vivabeta,
Your comment made no sense, and you seem to going out of your way to be an asshole.
My point, pretty clearly stated, was that I believe the Braves currently value their financial flexibility more than they value Justin Upton.
Isn’t the advantage of financial flexibility being able to sign players as you need them? And how do you know they value this flexibility over Justin Upton? Inside info? Gut?
My belief that the Braves value their financial flexibility more than Justin Upton is based off the salary and payroll projections presented here in this article, and a pretty well established pattern or organizational tendencies in recent years.
There are a number of projected holes in the roster after this year. (Hudson, Maholm, McCann, EOF, etc.) Not all of those holes will be able to be filled internally. Expecting that is unrealistic. Adding Justin Upton would make filling those holes more difficult. You can’t simply assume that payroll with rise because of an increase in TV revenue.
The Braves also have a fairly well established pattern of attempting to field a competitive team year in and year out. Management seems to prioritize being competitive year after year over actually winning a world series.
Based on the payroll projections presented here, I can’t help but draw the conclusion that adding Upton probably improves the team in 2013. But it could also create a financial pinch in 2014 and beyond that could force the Braves into make some bad moves. Bad moves like trading away productive vets to meet budget (Millwood), or trading away prospects for rental players in order to stay relevant (Tex, JD Drew). Bad moves, that could hinder the team’s competitiveness for several years.
Based on the teams historical tendencies in the recent past(i.e. Wren’s tenure), I have a hard time seeing Wren jeopardize the team’s future in 2015 and beyond, for a player that probably doesn’t change the outcome of the divisional title.
That’s what my belief is based upon.
Do you not think that those players are accounted for in the current payroll? If none of them are resigned that 31+ million off the books. I think if the price was to Wren’s liking he would (and should) pull the trigger in a heartbeat.
“… for a player that probably doesn’t change the outcome of the divisional title.” Really? A potential 6 WAR player who is dynamic in almost every aspect of the game? Won’t make a difference?
Did you actually read the article? Did you not look at the tables?
The last line of the table indicates that if Justin Upton were added, the Braves would have $96 million committed to payroll in 2015 WITHOUT Hudson, Maholm, McCann, Prado, EOF, etc. The money currently going to those players will be going to arbitration raises for Heyward, Freeman, Minor, Beachy, Kimbrel, etc.
That’s a lot of holes to fill without much money to acquire players unless payroll increases significantly.
While its possible for Justin Upton to have a 6.0 WAR season the most realistic projection is 3.5-4.0 WAR. Based on his home/road splits and the nature of Chase field him numbers aren’t likely to go up by a shift to Turner field and the NL east.
Bobby, WAR is adjusted for ballpark. A 3.5-4 WAR player at Chase is a 3.5-4 WAR player at Turner Field unless they improve or regress.
And it was $92.6 million allocated in 2015 leaving us about 6 mil to play with. The only holes that would need filled though would be 3B & C. The rotation and bullpen would be addressed probably by current prospects/players. With Medlen/Beachy/Teheran/Minor/Gilmartin/Wood/Graham etc all ready for the rotation and its easy to find someone to slot in the bullpen cheap like we do every year. Plus by 2013 we could draft and develope, or a current prospect could man 3B. Atlanta usually leaves a roster spot open every year to a unproven/rookie. Like Heyward or Freeman or Pastornicky/Simmons last year. This year it looks like it will be LF or 3B.
Also by 2015 the Braves could trade Uggla with 1 year left for salary relief as they did with Lowe opening up possibly another $10 mil. Wren and company are smart, they could make it work, not that I believe they are going to have to.
Trying not to beat a dead horse here but,
Another advantage to Stanton for the next three years is the possibility of dramatically increasing the value of the Braves so that at the end of the three years Liberty Media could sell at a good profit to a person or group that wanted to spend the type of money that allows a club to compete virtually every year.
At the end of 2015 the Braves would have no burdensome contracts and a number of players going to free agency.
Not many new owners have the chance to come in to a situation where hardly any contract money is on the books for the next year. If the new owners have money to spend they would have the unique ability to shape the Braves personnel any way they chose.
At that point in time if the Braves do not have new ownership it is going to be ugly anyway because the effects of their lousy TV contract will still have around 10 years to go.
The reason people are arguing over Stanton with you is a combination of your belief we even have the prospects and is the upgrade worth it long term/short term.
First is what will it really take to acquire Stanton. You tried comparing the Texiera trade but that is not a fair example. We would be trading for more than twice the time of Stanton compared to the 1.5 years of Tex we traded for. Now when trading if you can’t give talent that is ready for the majors. Like the Rangers possible sending Profar, Olt and Martin Perez as suggested by David Schoenfield. Then you have to send several high end low level prospects, or a combination like we did with the Rangers for Tex. So to get Stanton you are looking at an offer of MLB ready talent like Freeman or Medlen with Teheran and Delgado or a huge (like you said seven player) low level high end talent that we just dont have or a combination that would be like a Freeman or Medlen mixed with Bethancourt, Peraza, Cabrera, and a Sims/Delgado/Teheran component. Now are you ready to offer that for the Stanton bump for the series.
Sure getting Stanton makes us around 3-4 wins better this season. Now you state this gives us a shot at the world series. But really as we are, we should be a playoff team. If we get hot in the playoffs we have an excellent shot to win the playoffs. Sure Stanton would help but as a Braves fan I hope you know by now that the most talented team on paper doesn’t usually win the World Series, otherwise we would have had 3-4 titles during the late 90s early 00s.
So is all that talent really worth it at this point if your the Braves I don’t think so. If we get to midseason and we are in a dogfight just to make the playoffs maybe Wren thinks of going for it but right now I don’t think Wren feels its needed. There is a lot of talk of how great Stanton but he isn’t as good as Heyward really. I assume Wren is going to be gunshy on any big move after watching the results from the Tex trade, add in the fact is it is a trade with a division rival not an American League team, and we already have a team that should be playoff bound I don’t see Wren getting overly ambitious for this.
Thanks for your response. I understand your points and agree with you in the respect if the Braves cannot bring enough minor league, high end, prospects to the table along with one major league reliever and Fransico then I would not do the trade either.
The whole point I was pushing is that if the Braves have enough to get J Upton then consider what else it would take to get Stanton. If they do not have enough additional talent to get Stanton without giving up our regular starting position players or starting pitching staff then I am not in favor of the trade.
The team that Wrenn has put together for next year is on the cusp of being a very good team. I am just trying to figure out a possibility that enhances their World Series chances. That is the fun part about the off season for me. We can all be vicarious baseball GMs through Frank Wrenns moves or non moves.
Where are the moderators for these threads, and why are they letting such idiotic posts clutter the site?
The Braves are not trading for Stanton, period, so stop talking about it in a JUpton post. They don’t have the prospects to make it happen. Yes, he is greatm, but will will never be a Brave.
The Braves value financial flexibility over Upton? What? The whole point of this article was to show the Braves would have plenty of flexibility even after acquiring Upton. The whole point of financial flexibility is to have the means to acquire a player just like JUpton. Besides, all the young guys won’t be with the team in 3 years because a few will flame out and be dumped, just like they always do. All of a sudden dumping those guys adds more flexibility.
Nick S, why moderate comments because you think they are idiotic. The only thing they would moderate is bad behavior. If someone says something idiotic try to inform them and not sound like a jerk. The writers here are very good at reading comments and answering questions. People come to this site for a more thoughtful/analitical analysis of all things Braves. Why would they want to turn away people they can inform and spread ideas to just because you believe they are idiotic. If you don’t like the comments don’t read them since you already have such a firm grasp on everything.
before there were some writers for the site who would’ve warned you once to stop making DOB blog type of posts, and then brought down the ban hammer if you did it again.
According to DOB, it looks like the Braves have given ~$1.5M more out in arbitration than projected here. Some of that money will be saved on Prado though, as the Braves number for Prado is $6.65M and Prado’s number is $7.05M, both a good bit lower than the $7.7M in the chart.
Also, I know it’s $400K, which is a good amount of money, but I always find it interesting how much contention there can be over ~5% of a player’s salary.
A little surprised by how much the Braves gave to O’Flaherty. I’m not suggesting it is out of line based on comps, but for over $4 mil I might have just seen how it played out in arbitration.
If the Braves acquire Upton, let Huddy ,Mac,Maholm and EOF leave for free agency, they will probably promote Gilmartin and have this rotation right? Medlen,Minor,Beachy,Teheran,Gilmartin
They will also shed $31m that they can use to re-up Prado if they wish and still have $20m left to re-up Mac if they wish and fill any pen/bench spots….
In fact, I think the team is structured pretty well contract wise, they seem to have people leaving every year who allow financial flexibility to either trade/promote or sign players to fill those spots. (for example, LaStella should be ready by 2014 meaning this could make Uggla a trade candidate if he has a good 2013 season perhaps, freeing up money for luxury items like bidding on David Price)
I think reports of the Braves financial problems are greatly exaggerated.
P.S. Stanton is a pipe dream, no smart GM spends that much in prospects to bring in ANYBODY!! Not unless they also have the amount of $$$ to re-sign him($20m+ per yr). Not to mention the Marlins would inflate the price to avoid an inter-division trade.
edit: I meant 2015 for LaStella
As much as I love Brian McCann, if losing him is the price of bringing in Justin Upton, I’m okay with that. The grind of being a catcher has taken its toll on him and I don’t think we’ll ever see him return to the numbers he used to put up. God bless him though, Mac and Chipper carried the Braves for years.
The one veteran Brave I would like to resign after 2013 is Tim Hudson. I think Hudson still has some good years left. He is a crafty pitcher and even if his stuff declines slightly, he’ll still figure out a way to get guys out. He is a fierce competitor and gives you a good bunter and hitter in the 9 slot.
Now that Chipper is gone, we need somebody to be that veteran presence in the clubhouse, and Huddy is the man for the job.
“I would offer the store to Prado who like Jeter is the penultimate professional ball player. ”
Say what? Prado and Jeter are next-to-last, in terms of professionalism, among ball players?