Braves Positional Outlook: Infield
January 21, 2013 at 4:09 pm by Mark Smith under Atlanta Braves
It’s always funny when people start reading into things. With the deadline for filing for arbitration looming, the Braves and the other 29 MLB teams signed many of their arbitration-eligible players to one-year contracts. It’s standard procedure. Many, however, began wondering what it meant for those players and why they weren’t signed to multi-year deals, and they began their yearly fret that their favorite player will be lost forever. Calm down.
What do Elvis Andrus, Ryan Zimmerman, Salvador Perez, Yadier Molina, Sean Marshall, Cameron Maybin, Andrew McCutchen, Nick Hundley, Derek Holland, Jonathan Lucroy, Alex Gordon, Asdrubal Cabrera, Matt Cain, Joey Votto, and Jonathon Niese all have in common? They all signed multi-year contract extensions AFTER arbitration numbers had been exchanged and BEFORE the season started (or roughly thereafter) last year. So just chill out. Spring Training offers the perfect atmosphere for more talks – GMs and players are in very close proximity, lighter atmosphere as everyone is just getting their work in, and plenty of time – so while last Friday was a deadline, it was only to file for arbitration.
The concern over the long-term success of the club, however, is an avenue worth pursuing. Today will be the beginning of a four post series looking at the next 5 years at each position in the organization, and we’ll start with the infield.
Catchers
This is probably the most troubling of the infield positions. Brian McCann is only signed through the end of the season, and besides wondering about an extension, we have to wonder whether or not he can regain the production that made him a six-time All-Star. If McCann gets back to his All-Star form, the Braves can then consider keeping him, and they’ll at least be able to talk to him before anyone else, though that doesn’t guarantee anything.
If he doesn’t get back to a high level of production or if the Braves cannot (or will not) afford a new contract, the internal options aren’t great. Gerald Laird is a good enough back-up, but he’s not really the guy you want to be the starter for an extended period of time. As far as prospects in the organization, the above chart shows the level-by-level breakdown of where players may start the season. If Evan Gattis doesn’t break camp with the Braves, it would be interesting to see him spend the year as the main Gwinnett catcher, but don’t mistake “interesting” for “likely” or even “a good idea”. Christian Bethancourt is the next most likely option, but unless he makes some very serious strides, he’ll probably need around 2 more years of development before he’s really ready. Anyone further down likely won’t be able to help next year.
Free-agent options aren’t pretty, but there are at least a couple. AJ Pierzynski, Carlos Ruiz, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia are all starter-worthy, but Pierzynski (37) and Ruiz (35) are on the backside of their careers. A platoon with Salty/AJ and Laird could do for 2013, but catcher is a spot the Braves may be cobbling together for the next 4+ seasons.
First Basemen
Nothing to be concerned about here. Freeman is under team control through 2016, and he’s one of the guys I like for a breakout season.
Internally, there’s not a whole lot coming down the pipeline, but that’s not surprising. Being a first base prospect is tough because you have to really mash to be of any value. Most of the guys here can hit, but none of them have yet to show they can hit that much.
Second Basemen
Dan Uggla is a guy most fans would like to see traded, but it’s best if everyone realizes that it’s not particularly likely. The same reasons most fans don’t like him – maddeningly inconsistent, high K rate, bad defense, lots of money still owed, and his increasing age – are the reasons why most teams will shy away from acquiring him. If the Braves were able to trade him, they would likely be receiving an equally unwieldy contract in return. This, of course, overlooks the fact that he’s basically been a league-average or better second basemen the last two seasons. It’s just that most teams won’t fight to acquire a league-average talent making $13M a year.
Uggla is most likely to remain in Atlanta for the next three years, but should he stumble, the Braves have at least a couple options that show some promise. Tommy La Stella seems to be a Braves fan-favorite, but while he can hit a little, he might be as bad or worse than Uggla at second. Two other options seem a bit more plausible – Tyler Pastornicky and Nick Ahmed. Pastornicky didn’t ingratiate himself with fans last season, but he’ll play the entire 2013 season at the age of 23 and has time to improve. Ahmed is a shortstop prospect, but with Simmons seemingly entrenched at the spot for the next 6 seasons, Ahmed might be more likely to find playing time at the keystone. Pastornicky is the most “ready” of the two, but Ahmed probably won’t be ready until at least sometime late in 2014.
Third Basemen
Whether Prado, Francisco, or a combination of the two plays third this season, the Braves will at least have Francisco around for the foreseeable future. Depending on how you feel about Kevin Youkilis, Michael Young, and Mark Reynolds, there are a few options on the free-agent market for next season, but none of them are particularly appetizing. Given 600 PA, Francisco could probably do as well as all of these options (except maybe Youkilis … maybe) for a much smaller price.
As for other internal options besides Francisco, the Braves have a decent prospect at each level, but despite Joe Leonard winning a Minor League Gold Glove, none of them are really banging the door down as a real possibility. Ahmed could be a possibility here, but again, I wouldn’t consider it really possible until sometime in 2014.
Because I know there will be questions about Prado, I’m not sure there’s much to read into the $400K difference. It is a bit peculiar that the two sides would quibble over a seemingly small amount of money, but it’s not unprecedented. One theory I have is that there might be a sticking point (who Prado is comparable to, how valuable Prado really is, etc.), and given that the two sides obviously disagree, a third-party arbitrator might be the easiest way to decide the answer. Perhaps the two sides can then move on. Regardless of the reason, it’s simply too early to count out Prado remaining in Atlanta long-term.
Shortstops
Andrelton Simmons. Looking further down the line, the Braves have a couple nice SS prospects in Ahmed and Jose Peraza. Ahmed isn’t likely to unseat Simmons, so if he does find a spot in Atlanta, it will likely be at 3B or 2B. Peraza, on the other hand, is much farther away, but he’s one of the position player prospects to keep an eye on. If he can develop into a top prospect, he could become excellent trade bait or turn Simmons into trade bait as Simmons will start getting more expensive. Either way, the Braves have SS covered for a while.
Overall
Most of the Braves roster is young and/or under team control for a while, but the infield has the most potential holes in the short-term. Catcher is the most obvious area of need, but second (a potential Uggla collapse?) and third base (can Francisco handle 600 PA?) stand on tenuous ground as well.
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Did Ramiro Pena get left out of the infield positional overview?
I didn’t mention Pena because he’s not likely to play a significant role in the team’s future. Might be a bench player, but I doubt he starts for any length of time unless in an emergency situation.
He’s more likely to be on the team than Janish.
For whatever reason, I thought Pena was only a minor-league deal, but regardless, I didn’t really mention Janish either.
Great write-up. It will be interesting to see what the Braves do at Catcher and 3B next year. I for one am really hoping for a Prado extension but I also think that Prado deserves as much as he can get on the open market. It would be difficult to see him go though.
Feel good about infield with the exception of the positions you mentioned. Heck, even 3B. Really only positions I’m sold on are SS and 1B. But I think Fancisco trimming down will hopefully help him and he did good work with the little time he had with our hitting coaches. Now he’ll get a full Spring Training to work with Walker and Fletch.
Prado is a beast at 3rd or anywhere he plays. And just pay the man already. You’re going to give BJ 75, but give Prado 7 million. After all the years of excellent service to our team? Disrespectful in many respects. Hope BJ is worth it.
Hope Dan can finally have a consistent season of hitting 260 or so, with a 340 OBP, 35 HR and 100 RBIS. I will take that all day. Wishful thinking, but there have been so many times where I see the potential brilliance. We know he is capable of it.
Catcher is a serious position of concern. Hope Bethancourt gets ready soon, but I don’t want to rush his development. B Mac is gone after this year, I’m about 90% sure. Don’t want it to be true, but it is.
So, is it time we officially dump Salcedo as a prospect?
He’s 21 this next season, so no, it’s not time. For prospects, the minors is more of a journey than a set of individual seasons. Major league players can be looked at (sort of) in that vein, but most prospects are a far cry from that kind of talent and production. Sometimes, we get such high expectations for players that we forget they’re just teenagers. He’s still learning to hit and field, but the tools are still there. As long as the tools still exist, don’t give up if they’re still young (especially in relation the league they’re in).
Great reply – I think alot of fans have the “overnight success” syndrome when it comes to these young kids. The quick success of players such as Harper, Machado and Trout have given fans an unrealistic expectation when assessing alot of these young prospects. Most prospects need time to develop their talents – being drafted at 18, just out of high school, is a tough proposition for alot of them. Patience is a virtue when dealing with these kids. Braves prospects like Salcedo, Bethancourt and Lipka are very talented but it may take them more time to develop – we should not get discouraged but understand pro baseball is a marathon not a sprint when it comes to development.
Why is no one high on Gattis? Dude has exploded on the scene. Seems to be the Brandon Beachy of the Braves minor league offense (they are also both 26).
I know you don’t want to get overexcited on someone who is a little older than normal but he’s an exciting prospect. It’s also possible he starts the season in the majors.
I think it’s time to get at least a little bit excited about Gattis.
To be fair, Beachy was 24 when he broke into the majors, so while they’re the same age, it’s not really a similar situation.
Gattis could be a valuable player, and there’s a non-zero chance he becomes a decent MLB starter. That being said, he’s more likely to be a good bench option, offering value because he can catch and play left while being able to mash lefties. It’s valuable, and I wouldn’t care about his age. But when looking at his overall prospect status, you’d either like him to be a catcher (thus his bat would probably be fine) or be able to hit enough to be a LF (you have to hit quite a lot to be a decent corner outfielder). There are serious doubts to both.
What is the nature of the serious doubts about Gattis hitting well enough to play left field?
Mark, I haven’t heard anyone detail the problems with Gattis’ swing or yet have heard many project his ceiling as a bench player. I have heard he is too old or needs more experience. I am curious about his hitting weaknesses. Does he have a hard time with certain pitches, locations, not patient enough? His AA manager said he had a decent glove and range, and he does have an above average arm and excellant work habits so it looks like he has the potential to be a serviceable LF. Would appreciate any hitting analysis that you could provide. Thanks!
The concern with Gattis surrounds his ability to hit RHP and velocity. While his MiLB stats show he can, those are only MiLB stats and mostly at the A-ball level. Concerns about the bat are mainly if he can hit higher velocities and/or whether or not he can do that AND adjust to offspeed pitches. He takes a pretty ferocious swing and is country strong, but he’s yet to really face pitchers that can locate breaking balls enough that he can’t just hack away at fastballs.
Basically, Gattis could be the second coming of Brooks Conrad.
I also see Gattis this way. Potential to be a starter, morel likely to be the next Matt Diaz
Now, Matt Diaz had value when used as a cheap bench bat.
I’m not besmirching Gattis when comparing him to Matty D, he was a helluva lefty killer for several years
Would the Braves consider moving Lipka to 2B. I know they moved to from SS to CF because of several reasons but I imagine he would perform as well defensively as Le Stella. His speed makes him valuable and now that we have BJ in center for 5 years he is blocked at CF. Also having Peraza and Ahmed around makes me not as worried at 2B and 3B. They have potential to move if needed, it’s catcher I’m worried about.
Moving to second would put a little more pressure on Lipka’s bat to play. As for right now, he still needs to show he can hit enough to play center, and moving him second would make him also have to focus on trying to learn a new position. Let him learn to hit, and if the situation comes, he can either be trade bait or moved to second.
Actually, Lipka already played 33 games at 2B while he was at Rome. Looked very good there as I recall – 0 errors and displayed great range – still unlikely Braves would move him from ss/cf/2b in three consecutive seasons.
2B wouldn’t be totally new to him, but I doubt he could simply move there without needing extra ground balls, etc. before and/or after games.
I went to a Rome game a couple seasons ago and saw Lipka play SS. He looked really solid there, and looked to be the most comfortable player in that infield. All of his movements were fluid and he showed pretty good range. I could see that translating to 2B. But like Mark said, I think we can only place him using his bat, which is still kind of undefined.
Hey Mark… In your experience, when a team and a player disagree on a comparable player/overall value and are then left disagreeing on an arbitration figure, does that hurt the team’s chances on re-signing the player once he hits Free Agency??
In other words, do players, in general, carry a chip on their shoulders? Do you think Prado will?
From stories I’ve heard, it’s not a big deal for the most part. Most players understand it’s just part of the business, and they don’t even have to be present (but they can be) during the meeting. It’s possible he could get mad, but I don’t think it’s particularly likely.
OT, but it’s always good to read a headline like this, from MLBTR:
“Phillies seriously considering Delmon Young”
Oh, how far they’ve fallen.
Haha! Although Bowden is always high on Young! Wasn’t it him that suggested we trade Prado for Young?? What a joke.
Update: “Phillies Sign Delmon Young”
haha
Hampton, Lowe, Uggla.
At first glance, it seems as though we have a rich history of our highest paid player being among the least productive on the team. There is a bit of irony here since the Braves seem to be a very well-run organization. Any chance we could see a more in depth article on the subject? I love the work you guys do. Very thorough analysis.
Just my two cents, but I think it’s just sheer coincidence. We have paid other big contracts (at the time) that didn’t turn out to be busts… McGriff and Gallaragga (god I miss them) come to mind.
Side note… is it just me that would find it hilarious if Lowe ends up in Colorado??
Yea, I’d say it was coincidence as well. Just thought it would be an interesting read.
You win some you lose some. Don’t forget the braves had the greatest off season signing when they pulled maddux. I doubt anybody has gotten better value than that deal.
Teams almost always overpay for the production they get from FAs. Couple that with the fact that Braves can’t really afford the premium FAs so usually spend “big” on mediocre guys, and you have a perfect storm for underperforming FAs.
I agree with Nick. The bigger contracts go to players of free-agent age, and most of the time that means they’re 30 or so. That’s the wrong end of the aging curve. The first few years are likely to be okay, but there’s usually a drop-off once 32 hits. I may try to do something on this later, however. Might be interesting.
Just checked Fangraphs and last year Uggla was 4th in Batter WAR for the Braves. I think that too many supposed “saber’ fans are forgetting to look at value rather than counting stats…
…especially since it has had ramifications on the moves the team has (and has not) been able to make.
^this was meant to be amend my reply to Michael.
If the Braves can sign Prado long term, the only two real holes are at C and 2B, but Uggla isn’t really an awful option at 2B either. So, if the Braves can figure out something behind the plate, the infield looks great for the future.
Is anyone else depressed hearing the news of the dodgers 7+ billion dollar tv deal. One year is worth more than the braves current deal as a whole.
Yes, I am just hearing about that, but I’m extremely worried about the Braves’ TV deal (has something like 20 years left on it). I have no idea how we will ever keep talent around when our payroll is 1/2- 1/3 of most other teams (could happen in the next 10 years).
Not sure if it’s been mentioned, but ESPN is reporting that the braves are trying to make a move for Justin Upton soon.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8874098/arizona-diamondbacks-atlanta-braves-discussing-justin-upton-trade-according-sources
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/01/dbacks-notes-upton-kubel-braves-orioles.html
Color me excited…
This is my first read (and first post) over here. The other Braves site I frequented became too distracting and cumbersome to read.
Loved this write-up, and looking forward to more.