Too Many Strikeouts In The Lineup Fallacy
January 23, 2013 at 11:17 pm by Andrew Sisson under Atlanta Braves
A reoccurring comment I’ve seen on various Braves sites, comment sections, Twitter and even from Ken Rosenthal tonight, goes something like, “the Braves will have too many strikeouts in their lineup by adding/starting player X.” It started with B.J. Upton and has since moved to players like Juan Francisco and most recently Justin Upton.
Well, that statement is not really true. I thought it may be helpful, since there is a diverse Braves readership, to hopefully help clear this up. When it comes to the offensive side of baseball, an out is an out. Take the chart below as an example. It is the correlation between team runs per game and team strikeout rate over the past 25 years (1988-2012).
Data courtesy of FanGraphs
As you can see, those 720 samples form a fairly large blob in the middle of the chart. The trend line does show a negative correlation of r=-.11, but this is very weak and there is really no relationship to speak of between the two.
The highest dot on the chart is the 2010 Diamondbacks. They struck out just under a quarter of the time they came to the plate, managing to score 4.4 runs per game. The 2007 Twins are another dot, located very low on the chart. They also scored 4.4 runs per game, but only striking out as a team 13.6% of the time. An out is an out.
We can also simply look at Tom Tango’s run values of individual events. In The Book: Playing The Percentages In Baseball, Tango shows (Table 11) that value of a strikeout is worth -.301 runs, while a non-strikeout is worth -.299 runs. They are essentially the same. Just remember, when you put the ball in play, it can sometimes lead to multiple outs.
There are other, more valid arguments, which can be made for wanting to start or acquire a certain player. Team OBP and team runs per game over the past 25 years have a very strong correlation, r=.88. This shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone; you have to get on base to score runs. Team wOBA has an even higher correlation, r =.94. You would also expect this to be high because the stat is an attempt to measure total offensive contribution.
So, when making a case for or against player X, use reasons that effect the ability to score runs. A high strikeout rate doesn’t, the lack of ability to get on base does. Those two may even seem like they go hand-in-hand, but you can still get on base at a good rate while striking out over 20% of the time. Some players produce better when they strikeout at a higher clip due to the quality of contact being made (see Ben’s piece from 2011 about Dan Uggla). Other players, mainly those who rely on speed, would be better off putting the ball into play more and striking out less. Players must tailor their individual skillset to maximize their total offensive ability.
Lastly, don’t be confused with strikeouts from a pitchers point of view, they are more important for a pitcher on the mound. Many ERA estimators are largely based off strikeout rates (as well as BB and HR). It may be hard for some to separate the importance of a single stat for two opposing sides, but it does exist.
Being concerned over too many strikeouts in the lineup shouldn’t be a major worry when acquiring players. Even if the Braves have five regulars strikeout over 20% of the time and a couple of guys over 25% of the time (not including pitchers), it really shouldn’t be a concern. It is only one result of a plate appearance. Be more concerned of the overall offensive value the player brings to the lineup. At the end of the day, an out is an out.
Loading ...
Excellent analysis, and simplified for the general public.
Gotta say I like the trade for Upton! Hate to see Prado go, but glad they didn’t gut the farm for him like with Tex.
I ran the same analysis using SAS for an applied Economics course except age and OPS+ were my variables. Did you do any tests (i.e Glejser, BP, Park test) to check for significant non-constant variance?
Could you somehow compare the k-heavy teams against the non k-heavy team’s performance against the top 33% of pitchers that year to estimate how those teams would compare in the playoffs?
Let’s all hope this puts this pointless argument to bed! If I had a dollar for every time I had to run to fangraphs and grab some examples for why K’s don’t make a difference in run production, I’d have like $347
It won’t be – see the argument below by “alvon” in which he dismisses the argument with his gut feelings.
I’m one of those that has made this point before (too many K’s). But it’s not about run production overall, it’s about Gavin’s point. Longtime Braves fans want a team that can hit good pitching and be successful in the playoffs. Sometimes this is a matter of striking out vs. putting the ball in play. But it’s really more of a gut feeling, which is the problem, I suppose. It’s just the automatic correlation in our heads: guys that strike out 140+ times are not gonna hit good pitching, and we’ll be going home early again.
The other day I was thinking,”Tell Uggla’s ass he’s playing left field and try to get someone like Daniel Murphy.” Sounds crazy…so let’s hear some rumors about who we’re giving up for J. Upton!
This was a great article that used solid metrics and backed it with research.
“It’s just the automatic correlation in our heads: guys that strike out 140+ times are not gonna hit good pitching, and we’ll be going home early again.” So what are you basing your statements on. If its your “gut feeling,” then you are not only one of those “that has made this point before (too many K’s),” you are one of those that do not understand 80% of what is posted on this site.
Do the reading if you want to understand this site (which has nothing to do with “gut feelings”), and if you want trade rumors, go somewhere else. If you want to know what J. Upton is worth for trade purposes, there was already a great article on that.
@ Silver, lol, I read every article posted on this site and am fully on board with stat analysis. If you care to re-read what I wrote, maybe you’ll notice that I said using gut feelings is problematic. I guess I was putting out too-subtle cry for help: is there data showing that players who don’t K so much are more likely to succeed against “good” pitching/in the playoffs? Is there anything to the gut feeling that we have too many K-heavy guys to succeed against the best? Has there ever been a team with five 140+ strikeouts in the lineup that won a WS, or even a 7-game series?
I’ll continue to read and comment here, thanks very much. It would be nice to be able to put out half-baked ideas for the rest of the community to cook the rest of the way off, without being attacked by some dude who probably has real problems that he needs to address, since he’s transferring that anger on a baseball stats blog to someone he doesn’t know.
I admit I haven’t done all the required reading…you wanna make a deal, I’ll read it all if you stop being an internet bully?
Its not bullying, its venting frustration at a guy who reads empirical evidence in an article, and then posts about using gut-feeling and correlations you create in your head rather than with stats. You miss the point of the article with the erroneous thought that a strikeout has a different value in the playoffs.
The playoffs are a crapshoot with small sample sizes and can have counterintuitive results; but you should expect a strikeout to have the same negative value in the playoffs and the regular season in general.
Right man, telling someone they are too stupid to understand this site and they should go somewhere else isn’t bullying. For someone so sure of their logic, you haven’t even noticed that I never said a word about the value of a strikeout vs. any other out. But oh well.
@alvon on offense it is about creating and scoring runs, on pitching/defense it is about preventing runs. That wins baseball games. If you build you’re team around those two basic principles (overall production), it will give you the best chance to win in the playoffs.
@Andrew, ya hopefully we can score more than the other team, that would be nice. Do you know any research about correlation between K rate and playoff success? Or success against “good” pitching, as Gavin asked above? I know the idea of clutch hitting is a saber bugaboo, and I guess playoff hitting can be lumped in there. Maybe I’m just looking for an explanation for why the Braves have failed in the playoffs so many times….
In principle I’m thinking: over the course of a long season, when varying degrees of pitching quality are faced, hitters that kill mistakes/decent pitchers but strikeout a lot can still have plenty of value. But does their value decline significantly against good pitchers or in the playoffs? And of course even if the answer is yes, that doesn’t mean one would change the way they structured their team. Gotta be in it to win it and all that….
There is a difference between getting SO and being patient and wait for the good pitch.
If the pitch is nasty as hell and if you hit it, it will just produce even worse, why not just let it go?
Hitters can try to wait for the pitches to late counts for better pitches to hit but fall behind and easily ended up striking out but more often than not, the hitter will get a hit. The Braves was one of the best team to see more pitches. Who cares about SO if they are being patient. I cannot believe so many fans cannot tell the difference and keep focusing on the Braves being struck out too much.
2011 Heyward hit into groundball so much, I would rather put him on the bench when people are the bench. He had so much less SO but much lower power and BA. He was patient as usual so he had decent OBP but he could not drive in any runs.
2012 Heyward was so much better than previous version of Jason. Take the chance, make the swing, be confident. That result the SO but I am fine with it.
We saw over the last two years first hand with Uggla that a higher strike out rate is often better for particular hitters.
Strike Outs in many cases can be more useful than other outs. Weak grounders can easily turn into double plays and several good 8 pitch strike outs can help us get to a team’s bullpen. I know FF likes to go first pitch swinging, which is great when it works, but frequently just ends up being more frustrating than an Uggla AB where he takes a ton of pitches before the K.
Good write up. For me personally, I don’t necessarily worry about the amount of strikeouts. My biggest concern is if Uggla and BJ Upton go on a cold streak at the exact same time. Very similar offensive players, except BJ brings much more speed. Extremely inconsistent at the plate.
Andrew…
I wonder if you guys have the resources/time available to look at last season’s scoring play and see how many time one was preceded with a strikeout? Then, compare that with the number of times a rally was killed because of some kind of weak contact?
That may further validate the argument.
Great article. You mention something I’ve been trying to understand, but haven’t gotten a good grasp on yet. If strikeouts are fairly unimportant (in the grand scheme of things) for hitters, why are they so important for pitchers? I don’t doubt that this can be true, I just haven’t pieced it together yet.
Anyone got a fairly concise explanation that will help me?
I could be wrong, but while the strikeout is practically no different than a fly out to an offense, it’s quite the opposite for a pitcher/defense.
The strikeout is the ONLY out that a pitcher has full control of. If a ball is put into play, even to the best fielder in the league, things can happen. What should be a can-of-corn can easily turn into a 2-run triple. Look at the Pence hit from the World Series.
Just my estimation as to why it’s important for pitchers.
Interesting post, but I gotta argue with the “out is and out” phrase. If there is a man on third and less than two outs, a strikeout is not a fly out. If there is a man on second with less than two outs, a strikeout is not a grounder between first and second.
No it’s not, but the point is, a strikeout is also not a sharp line drive right at 3rd leaving the base runner to get tagged out. A strikeout is also not a fly out to RF and the runner at 2nd getting gunned down trying to tag and take 3rd.
Those scenarios are reflective of bad base running, in my mind, not a poor at bat with runners on.
Either way, I think we agree an out is not necessarily an out :)
Okay… But it goes to the point. The batter doesn’t get to go in the box and select which outcome he wants. He has absolutely no idea what is going to happen.
But, if you just look at sheer percentages, the hitter has a less than 40% chance of getting runners in with base hits. Odds are, you’re going to record an out. Sure, we’d love it to be a “productive” out, but it’s not always going to happen. So, just getting yourself out really isn’t that bad of a thing when you compare it to getting yourself and a baserunner out.
Maybe those are bad baserunning (though getting thrown out trying to take an extra base isn’t necessarily bad baserunning – could be a great throw), but consider the situation where there are runners on the corners or the bases loaded with one out. In that case, a strikeout is clearly preferable to a groundball in the infield. In fact, a strikeout is basically always preferable to a groundball in the infield when a double-play is a possibility.
The whole point is that we shouldn’t be playing the what-if game in terms of situation – people on both sides can concoct scenarios which support their argument. What Andrew did was take a comprehensive look at the data, and he found that the number of strikeouts a team has does not affect its run production. That’s the takeaway
Deal for Upton looks eminent, with Delgado as the center piece. With JR Graham and Gilmartin only a year or two away, this deal makes sense if we want to win now. Could make some contract difficulties down the road though. I’m pretty sure this would end the career of Brian McCann as a Brave.
From eminent to “Agreed” Bout f’ing time!!
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/01/braves-to-acquire-justin-upton.html
God this season can’t get here soon enough!!!!!!
Okay I just went from sheer excitement to being about ready to abandon my love for the franchise.
WTF is he thinking giving up Prado???????????
And as far as McCann goes… I think it was a relative certainty we wouldn’t be able to keep him even before this deal. Too many AL clubs with deep pockets will be clamoring for him.
NOOO! Prado is in the deal…….
Prado,Delgado,Ahmed and Spruill says Bowman
Prado must have told FW he was going to free agency and cash in.
ALSO, this tells me the Braves are going to extend Mac at some point pending performance
Do you think?
I’m not disagreeing with you, just wondering what makes you so confident that we will resign Bmac.
Basically our money could have gone to Prado OR McCann. We all expected Prado, but at a pre-FA extension price. The arbitration difference of 400k not being settled makes sense. Prado must have indicated he was going to FA, and the Braves were trying to keep 400k in their pocket rather than just throw it to a guy that’s leaving anyways.
What I don’t understand, is that Chris Johnson has a reverse platoon split. He had a 77 wRC+ against lefties in 2012. Doesn’t seem to make sense as a platoon partner for Roadrunner. Though, given 600 PA he could be a 2 WAR 3B. Not sure what the Braves’ plans are.
Chris Johnson heading to Braves to platoon with Roadrunner
Prado?!?!?!
WTF!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Anyone but Prado. Anyone. I’m so conflicted on this deal.
I am not conflicted – on first blush, I don’t like it.
Really?
Don’t get wrong, I loooove Prado.
But you’d rather give away JHey? Freeman? Beachy, Medlen? All under 26 and as valuable to the team.
I don’t want to see him leave, but this is a good deal for Atl.
CJ last yr, .816 split against lefty’s, this isn’t a bad deal at all
I’ll have to compare the Prado/Francisco/Reed platoon to the Upton in LF Francisco/Johnson split (and the loss of Delgado). The good thing is this platoon is a lot easier to manage then what Fredi G. was facing.
No, CJ had a .672 OPS vs LHP. He’s better vs RHP, just like Francisco.
Unless I’m reading it wrong, CJ actually has a pretty pronounced reverse platoon split, which would make him an odd fit.
I saw that, but not near enough sample size. Only 130ish ABs against lefties.
Yeah. Where can one go for MiLB splits?
I prefer moving a soon to be free agent and none of Teheran,Gilmartin,Graham,Wood or Sims than keeping Prado.
I predict a 3 WAR 3B platoon which will help the sting of losing Prado
Sometimes it really is hard keeping emotion out of baseball – but you are right. Prado is about to get paid.
Well said, Silver. The initial gut reaction is anger/sadness that we are losing a player we have all loved for years. But, fact of the matter remains that baseball (like any sport) is a business. And, as you stated, Prado is about to get PAID and deservedly so.
In hindsight, probably a good decision to move him now and get a return than to lose him in free agency and get nothing.
Brandon Drury included too
So, apparently Mark need a 5th scenario in his article about filling the void at LF/3B. One that included shipping away the player we thought would man 3B primarily after picking up Upton.
Who the hell saw this coming??
I’ll be waiting for CAC’s view of the trade. Also, what will the lineup look like. My guess is..
Simmons
Heyward
J Upton
McCann
BJ Upton
Freeman
Uggla
Francisco/Johnson
Simmons definitely turned some heads with the bat last year and he may very well be our only “typical” lead-off hitter, but I’m not so sure he’s ready for that pressure. And, I think you have Mac batting too high.
I may have Mac and Freeman switched but I think this is what Fredi will roll with if everyone is healthy. I have high hopes for Mac to hit really well as long as he gets and stays healthy. it’s been two years since he has been though.
I’m thinking:
Upton
Heyward
Upton
Freeman
Uggla
McCann
Francisco/Johnson
Simmons
Bean Thrower
DOB reports that Prado wanted $12m AAV on any extension hence he was traded
.800 OPS with potential to play multiple positions, pay the man!
Upton’s ceiling is much higher than Prado’s. Yeah he can play multiple positions but only 2 above average, and he can’t play them simultaneously.
I think it came down to Prado or Mac, and Mac won.
If we are going with Mac we should resign him now while he is cheaper and trade in the future if he can’t come back to what we need. If he bounces back this season and hits like he can we are going to lose him too next offseason because a catcher than can hit like he can will get paid well in the AL.
Frank Wren and Prado must hate each other. Its better to trade him than lose him to FA. I’ll miss Delgado and Ahmed but I’m ok with Spruil and Drury going. Better Delgado than Teheran and Spruil than Graham IMO. 3 years of Upton control of Johnson against 1 year of Prado and potential of Spruil, Ahmed, and Drury. Tough call but will still be good.
What? Why? How it seems to me is that Wren was trying to work out an extension and Prado was looking for something around 11-12 annually, and he didn’t want to spend that much.
I imagine Prado has felt disrespected his whole career here from the front office. When he first came up he was bypassed by Kelly Johnson. Then when Johnson failed given second and performed well. Then they trade Uggla and move him to LF where his value as a hitter declines from a monetary standpoint. There has been rumors of possibly trading Prado for over a year. Not like AZ did with Upton but still there at times. Then the lowball mark under 7 million this year for arbitration when many evaluators had it around 7.7 mil. I think Wren does not value Prado a 5.9 WAR player last season as much as Prado deserves. And it got to the point where Prado said I want to be paid what I deserve, hence the trade. That is why they did not agree at a 11-12 mil a year that Prado is worth for a about a 4 year contract.
I think that IF Upton has a 2011 type year, everyone will forget about Prado being in this deal
When I didn’t think the trade included Prado (who I love [as a player {as a baseball player}]), I was a little disappointed for Juan Francisco and worried that Prado would head to free agency and we would not know whether Francisco was a viable replacement. Now at least we will know that at the end of this season.
On a side note, does anyone else think we should look at Javier Vazquez?
I think we have enough pitching.
He’s making a comeback to start, not to come in for relief, AAA, or dumped when Beachy comes back and all are healthy. Though I would love to see JV as #5 and Teheran in AAA.
I always forget about Beachy….
He comes back strong, Braves move Maholm at the deadline for a prospect and the team looks awfully mighty
You can never have too much pitching. I’m not sold on Teheran at the MLB level yet, so I think he would make a great #5 starter for us. He’d only want a 1 year deal probably, so he would provide depth and give us flexibility going forward, especially if Beachy’s comeback is delayed or he struggles once he comes back.
there’s $10m left according to DOB, interesting to see where that bread gets spent (or if it’s saved for extensions for next year)
I would offer Upton a 2 yr extension at $13m a yr btw, try to keep the brothers together for 5 years
Man, what a good trade for us.
vivabeta says:
01/24/2013 at 10:50 AM EST
Man, what a good trade for us.
————————————–
Thats all that needs to be said. now we just need performance from our roster.
Amazing that Dbacks give up Upton but still have a great shot at playoffs.
Check this article out from last year around the trade deadline saying any deal for Upton from Atl would need Prado.
http://www.rantsports.com/mlb/2012/07/11/mlb-rumors-atlanta-braves-willing-to-swap-martin-prado/
Prado moved at the deadline for Upton (assuming similar package) has a lot less value for the Braves than trading him now does. (especially since Wren had the information of Prado wanting $12m AAV in an extension)
We seriously have the best GM in baseball (my apologies Billy B). This isn’t exactly the Michael Bourn theft, but we lost some low ceiling prospects, a back of the rotation starter, and a guy we couldn’t afford to extend. In this scenario we get a potentially better Upton for 3 years, a legit (sorta) platoon at 3B, AND maybe extend Canns after the season.
We’ll have a post up shortly on JUpton.
The above analysis ignores pertinent metrics like how the strike outs are distributed throughout the line up.It is therefore lacking in perspective.This is a bad trade and one of the compelling reasons is the lineup packed with rally killing strike outs.
Over the course of a season an out is an out.
However, remember that the next time we watch someone K with a runner on 3rd and 1 out against a good pitcher and end up losing by 1 run.
The problem with the “and out is an out” statement is that it assumes all runs are equally valuable.
Anyone that has watched baseball can tell you that the 12th run scored in a 12-1 blowout is far less valuable than getting that guy in from 3rd in a playoff game where Medlen is facing off against Matt Cain and the game is likely to be a very tight and low scoring affair.
I don’t care what the numbers say, this is one case where I completely disagree with the statheads. If 2 guys each post an OPS of 800, but one guy Ks half as much, nobody can tell me they wouldn’t rather have the guy that makes more contact.
You are right, but only if you care about roughly 1.296 runs per season.
and that’s if you are comparing a guy who never strikes out to a guy who always strikes out.
@Nick S if you’re going to go situational, you have to take into account grounding into double plays and sometimes sacrificing a strikeout for weak contact. You can’t cherry pick situations. I could easily respond, “who do you want with a guy on first, 1 out down 1 in the 9th?”
Over the course of a 162 game season, all these contexts will even out, more or less. You don’t build a team acquiring players for playoff situations that may never occur, you build a team based on overall player value and the ability to create and prevent runs.
Did you know we were adding 250 strikeouts a year to our line up with the AZ trade when you wrote this?
Come’on Man!
Maybe we can sell some jerseys this year and have ESPN hype us up instead of winning. Find the stats on that the correlation between strikeouts and merchandise sold.
I hope you are right
@NickB – this is what I’m talking about. You can’t explain this stuff to poeple who are too dumb to understand a laymen article. Fangraphs actually just posted a similar article showing the trend line, which basically doesn’t exist.
Come’on Man! Read the freaking article! The math has been done, the pretty graphs have been made…just glance at them!
The offensive potential for the young J Upton is a big plus but defensively the Braves have improved their club with this trade
The only positions that are not manned by potential gold gloves are 2nd and 3rd (not including catcher in this because McCann, even though not the best defensive cather has other catching qualities that average it out and his hitting is a plus, when healthy).
You can make the argument that the Braves are a pitching / defense oriented club that has good offensive potential
Additionally, this off season the Braves have strengthened their manufacturing of runs ability by adding more stolen bases (slightly)and their ability to go 1st to 3rd as well.
Yes a strike out is the same as any other out over large sample sizes (regular season). But in a short 5/7 game post season series, strikeouts may be worse than putting the ball in play.
If there is a runner on second or third, then putting the ball in play could lead to that one run that wins a post season game or series. Striking out would not be worse over large numbers of plate appearances, but this may be one time where a small sample size is more important to winning one specific game.
If you need to win one specific game (today’s) game, then putting the ball in play with runners on base is always better than striking out.
Yes or No? No evidence from me, just discussion….
NO!!!! I am going to pull my hair out.
Here’s an example of where putting the ball in play is not necessarily preferable: 1 out, runners on the corners. A weak ground ball on the infield (and for most players, it doesn’t even have to be weak) results in a double play.
That’s why we don’t want to play the what-if game and create artificial scenarios. Instead, look at the data on the whole
Also, to your example, what if that runner on third gets thrown out at home? Then a strikeout would definitely have been better
[...] and Justin Upton will all strike out over 140 times each. Some have questioned how much worse a strikeout is compared to any other out, but I will curse this article every time a Brave strikes out with a runner at third and less than [...]