A Quick Look at the Prospects Headed to Arizona
January 24, 2013 at 1:09 pm by Ethan Purser under Atlanta Braves
If you have not heard the news, where the heck have you been? The Atlanta Braves pulled off a blockbuster earlier this morning, trading Martin Prado, Randall Delgado, Zeke Spruill, Nick Ahmed, and Brandon Drury to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Justin Upton and Chris Johnson. While there is sure to be excellent analysis forthcoming concerning the deal in its entirety, here are a few thoughts on the three prospects traded by the Braves.
Brandon Drury was the last player to be confirmed in the deal. The former 10th-round pick spent 2012 in Low-A Rome as a 19-year-old after posting a breakout season at Danville in 2011 in which he hit .347/.367/.525 with eight home runs and a 6:35 walk-to-strikeout ratio in 278 plate appearances. The lack of plate discipline was slightly concerning, but Drury was an 18-year-old in the Appalachian League, so we were willing to give him a mulligan.
The first half of 2012 was incredibly rough for Drury, posting a .495 OPS with two home runs and a 10:44 walk-to-strikeout ratio. In seeing him play, Drury looked absolutely lost at the plate, as he was not able to find a consistent landing point for his front foot. This inconsistency in his swing mechanics, which decreases leverage and bat speed, led to lots of weakly hit balls and whiffs on fastballs up and out of the zone. It also contributed to a good deal of head movement throughout the swing, which, among other things, limits one’s ability to properly size up breaking balls. As a result, Drury was extremely vulnerable on breaking balls low and away. In short, Drury could be beaten at the plate in a multitude of ways.
Drury was a different player at the plate in the second half of last year. The issues with his front foot became much less pronounced, allowing him to catch up to more fastballs and gain better leverage in his swing, which resulted in more hard hit balls all over the field. Overall, he hit .279/.323/.407 in the second half, with four home runs and a 10:29 walk-to-strikeout ratio.
Drury possesses an incredibly sweet swing, a stroke that is compact and adept at spraying line drives all over the field. While there is a wealth of potential in the bat, his lack of plate discipline is troubling. In order to fully realize the potential of his bat in the upper levels, Drury must learn to be more selective at the plate. Beyond this, Drury is not incredibly toolsy. He is not fast down the line—he’s in the 4.3-4.4 range—and his midsection projects to thicken as his body matures with age. While he does possess a solid arm and decent hands at third, the lack of athleticism, along with the body profile, point toward a future home at first base, a position he occupied for a majority of the season in deference to Kyle Kubitza. If he ends up at first base, Drury will have to hit as he climbs the ladder. While he does have his deficiencies, Drury has some upside and is a good get for Arizona at the back-end of a deal of this magnitude.
Nick Ahmed and Zeke Spruill are perhaps the better-known entities among fans of the Braves, both being second-round picks by the team in 2011 and 2008, respectively. Both participated in the Arizona Fall League this offseason and experienced success in front of talent evaluators from all over. Ahmed spent 2012 in High-A Lynchburg and received good reviews for his play at shortstop and for his bat, hitting .269/.337/.391 with six home runs and a 49:102 walk-to-strikeout ratio, while adding 40 stolen bases in 50 attempts. Ahmed can put the bat on the ball and profiles to have good gap power down the road due to his large frame. He raised his hands and moved them further away from his body in his setup this season, which changed the angle of his barrel at launch. Due to the added length involved, Ahmed struck out more than expected, although the rate was certainly tolerable. He’s a plus runner and has a plus arm in the field. While his ultimate defensive position remains to be seen, Ahmed should be, at the very least, a utility player at the major league level. He has a very good overall collection of tools with no glaring weaknesses, and while he is presumably blocked at shortstop by Didi Gregorius, Ahmed should find a way to contribute to Arizona’s big club sometime within the next two to three seasons.
Zeke Spruill has been a slow-and-steady riser in the system over the past five seasons. He spent 2012 in Double-A Mississippi, posting a 3.67 ERA with 106:46 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 161.2 innings pitched. Spruill did a great job keeping the ball on the ground, posting a 1.44 GO/AO ratio. His repertoire includes a hard-biting sinker that sits in the low-90s, a good changeup with plenty of fade and depth, and a slider that flashes above-average and has made great strides over the past few seasons. He displays above-average control, a trait that helps his repertoire play up. Spruill lacks a big swing-and-miss offering, but he mixes his pitches well and keeps hitters on their toes in the box. While his ceiling may not be incredibly high, Spruill should fit well in the back-end of a rotation or in the bullpen as a swingman or middle reliever. Arizona currently has a nice stockpile of young pitching, so it remains to be seen if Spruill can fight his way into what will certainly be a crowded picture in the coming years.
While the loss of these three prospects certainly hurts the state of an already-weak farm system, the Braves were adamant in not trading away their highest-ceiling prospects, a move that should be lauded. Most of the talent in the Braves’ system is currently in the lower levels, and big years from Mauricio Cabrera, Jose Peraza, Lucas Sims, and other high-ceiling 2012 draftees should lessen the impact of this trade on the farm system. Bravo, Frank Wren and Co.
Loading ...
yeah this was a great trade for the braves! who cares that they traded some talent in triple or double A the braves have all there big talent in the single A or rookie ball the braves don’t need talent right now the braves have a weak farm right now in the higher levels because the just brought up some great talent in simmons,freeman,heyward,pastornicky,tehran,delgado,kimbrel,venters,beachy,medlen,and so on! so right now the braves are set for the next 4-5 years they don’t need guys right now to be bumped up also if we had guys ready in triple A to come up we would have no where to put them! because if u think abou tit look at mijia or what ever his name is at 1st base we are bringing up this year to backup freeman! he is kinda scrwed right now because he has no where to play and has to be a bench player behind freeman he has to learn another postion or he will not play or be traded! because right now freeman will be our 1st baseman for atleast the next 5 years if not 10 years! mccann is going to be here i think for the rest of his career if not then bethancourt will be here for the next 5-10 years heyward the next 5-10 years! simmons the next 5-10 years the same goes for our picthing staff roattaion and bullpen we are set for the next 10 years if we choose to resign the great young players that we have right now! the only postion that will be open in the furture will be like 2nd and 3rd base the other postions are locked for a very long time! i can say that the next 5-10 years we will have the best outfield in the league because all know that heyward is not going anywhere in the next 5-10 years he will be a braves for life unless something happens like he get’s injured and does not produce which won’t happen and we all know that bj upton is signed for the next 5 years and his brother justin upton is signed for the next 3 years but do u really think that he is going to go sign somewhere else when he can play with his brother for a very long time won’t happen unless the braves don’t want him and we all see what they just gave eup so we all know that he will be a brave for the next like 5 years right along side his brother so for the next 5 years are starting lineup for offense will stay the same for the next 5 years in my opion except for 2nd and 3rd base! i see uggla going bye bye in 2 years and 3rd base will be somebody knew in 1-2 years! but as for catcher,1st,ss,rf,cf,lf will all be the same for atleast the next 5 years u can count on that also like i said i see mccann resigning with the braves for the rest of his career if he hits 300 again with 20 homers he will be a brave for life he will get a 5 year deal worth 75 million this year if he goes back to old form if he doesent he will be packing his bags along with francisco and uggla but the rest will be here for the rest of there careers!
Rob, please break something this big into paragraphs if you want people to read it. Just looking at that big blob of unbroken text gives me a headache.
I second that, huge walls of text are a nightmare. Also, some punctuation would help as well.
:)
I agree that the Braves have young talented players in many positions (at the Major League level). I’m very excited for the next 2-3 years as they mature and hopefully reach”peak”performance.
However, your idea that we are set for the next 5-10 years lacks any budgetary considerations. It be nice to keep them all, but with increased salaries in arbitration and extending players to avoid free agency it is going to be expensive.
Glad we didn’t lose Gilmartin, Graham, Bethancourt or Gattis. Spurill and Ahmed were two players I wanted to be involved in this deal so I’m happy about that.
However, losing Prado is horrible. Great leader, great player, and arguably one of the most valuable in the league. May not have the power or speed of Upton, but he can play six positions, hit 300, score 100 runs as well and drive in 70 from the 2 hole. That’s losing a heck of a lot, but Justin Upton might be worth it. But right now, just because of my love for Prado, it’s a very bitter sweet day.
Johnson is a downgrade defensively, he made 19 errors or something crazy like that last year. That’s not good. Solid offensive player though, hopefully he can continue his above average offense while improving on his defense.
Johnson will probably be starting about 1/4 of the time behind Fat Juan. I hate losing Martin but it was probably going to be either him or Canns extended in the offseason, and I much prefer JUp / Canns to Prado / platoon / mid-lower tier FA.
We all understand that Prado brough a lot of value to the team (5.9 WAR last season) but saying he plays six positions is wrong. He only played 5 last year and only two of them he plays above average defensively. And counting runs and rbis out of the two hole as value is not his real value. Runs and rbis depend on other players to be on or hit you in. His value is his ability to hit the ball and get on regardless if there are runners on or not.
and much of Prado’s very high WAR last year was due to his LF defense which may or may not have been a fluke, I figure he’s a 3.5 WAR guy or so for the next few years. I bet we can get close to that value from Francisco and Johnson
I don’t think this trade makes us better in 2013 unless Justin Upton has a career year, though that is well within the realm of possibility, considering he is 25. In terms of WAR, it is probably a wash over our proposed Francisco/Prado/Reed platoon in 3B/LF, or it may be a tad worse.
I believe in intangibles to some degree, especially for small samples. When Yadier Molina said “we play to win…they play not to lose” or something to that effect, he had a point. If there’s anyone on our 2012 team who “plays to win”, it was Prado. That sort of thing has a non-negligible impact the same way having a “player’s coach” like Bobby Cox does.
Whether Justin and BJ will have synergy (resulting in better clubhouse professionalism/cohesion and on-the-field performances) or dysergy (I know that’s not a word, but you know what I mean) is anyone’s guess. They seem to be happy today, so I am optimistic.
Anyhow, this trade was made for 2014 and beyond. Prado probably would’ve signed for what we pay Justin, but you’d have had to commit to more years for an aging Prado, which would’ve also impacted your chances to keep some of Heyward/Freeman/Beachy/Medlen/Kimbrel, who will all be looking to get paid at about the same time.
Well, plus there’s the fact that I don’t know how much better Prado is going to get, whereas the general consensus on Upton is he can be much better. Prado’s ceiling is probably being an all-star player. Most people believe Upton’s ceiling is a MVP-caliber player.
Sounds like you would like a team full of gritty hard-nosed guys. There’s a team in Arizona that’s stockpiling the gritmen and changing their name to the Arizona Charlie-Fuckin-Hustles. Maybe that’s the team for you!
Arizona is so fuckin gritty. Just disgusting grit and saliva and blood mixed up instead of gatorade for those sandy mothers. Kind of hope they suck. Anyway, Molina’s comment may have some truth but fact is it was true with Prado on the team and that didn’t work out. So we’re trying a new thing (for 3 years).
Viva,
I don’t post very frequently, but if you have any recollection of our prior conversations, I’d imagine you’d give me some credit for thinking things through. What you’ve done is sort of characterize my position as its logical extreme–a strawman.
I realize we are all quantitatively-minded here. This is a SABR blog. However, we also generally acknowledge the existence of intangibles. They are difficult if not impossible to quantify, since the work together with other things.
Most people would say “Bobby Cox was a good manager” in the sense that he managed personalities well, kept people happy/committed. That had some effect on our overall records during his tenure. His in-game decisions cost us something, too, but that’s beside the point. Many on this blog would make better decisions than Cox, but they would struggle to manage a team so well. If a coach can do something that alters a team’s performance that can’t be quantified, it is difficult to argue that some mix of player personalities can’t do the same.
Bobby Cox wouldn’t have done much with a team full of talentless hacks. And a “gritty” player, whatever that means, can’t really help a talentless team very much. “Intangibles”, whatever they are, are not something that have to come *in lieu of* talent. You can make an excellent case that Upton is no better than Prado, strictly by using things we *can* quantify. We’re not comparing a 10 WAR prima donna with a replacement-level Charlie Hustle. That’s no contest. In fact, that’s the strawman in question.
I still would’ve made the trade for reasons stated (2014 and beyond), but I think we lose something in Prado (and David Ross) that can’t be measured.
Keep an eye on Reed Johnson. The Braves’ infield just got weaker with the loss of Prado, and if a need for an infielder that can play right away arises because of an injury or Uggla struggling again etc., Reed Johnson appears as a very likely trade piece.
You have Chris Johnson now, plus Francisco, Janish, and Pastornicky.
I wanted us to sign Jeff Keppinger in the offseason, even before this trade. Now, I really wish we’d signed him. Not sure if he was just bent on Chisox or not, but I imagine we could’ve lured him. That would have made me ecstatic about this offseason. As it is, I think the sum of our transactions is break-even at best. That’s fine, because we won 94 games and we may get internal improvement.
I meant Reed Johnson would be a moveable piece if there were a sudden injury situation at another position, such as last year with the Simmons and Wilson injuries and the frantic trade for Janish to get someone who could play the position right away.
seems as though we have like 3million left? Took on upton and johnson that brought in about 13 million prado was at 6 so we brought in 7 net salary and i herd we had ten left?
The place I’ve heard the $10M figure from is DOB’s blog, and that’s the source most ppl who have repeated it have quoted. That was his estimate after the trade. He estimated we had ~$15M left before the trade.
Looking at Mark’s chart from his analysis of the trade, we have ~$88M committed with the 26 man roster he projects (one extra for Beachy on the DL half the year). This doesn’t include other guys on the 40 man roster, or that fact that we’ll need a 27th player while McCann starts the season on the DL (although that player could come off the 40 man roster). McGuirk says the targeted payroll is $98M, so that leaves a little less than $10M left after you pay the guys fleshing out the rest of the 40 man roster. Of course, that doesn’t mean the Braves are going to spend that before the season starts. They could save some or all of it for a mid-season acquisition.