Braves Positional Outlook – Outfield
January 25, 2013 at 3:50 pm by Mark Smith under Atlanta Braves
I wish baseball teams were a bit more considerate when they decided to make blockbuster moves. I mean, at least wait until after I’ve posted something before it becomes obsolete. Instead, I had to completely re-do this entire post because the Braves decided they had to trade for Justin Upton this week. Geez. Some people, you know?
Corner Outfielders
I originally planned to start by discussing center field, but I’m guessing everyone’s a little bit more excited about the new acquisition, Justin Upton, and his corner outfield mate, Jason Heyward. Upton, signed for the next three years at a total cost of $38.5M, will team with Heyward (whose cost will probably be around $20-25M during the same period of time) to form one of the most exciting corner outfield duos in baseball. With strong all-around play (hitting, baserunning, and defense), Don’t Be Heyton (get it? Oh okay, fine, but I refuse to say, “Up, Up, and a Hey!”) will probably contribute 10+ wins a season for the next three years.
What happens after those three years is a little sketchier. Both are certainly young enough and talented enough to be extended, but they’ll probably earn at least $15-20M a season through their free-agent seasons. Worth it? Probably, but let’s assume they don’t get re-signed, for now. There’s very little in the way of corner outfield prospects in the immediate vicinity, but even if you’re bullish on Evan Gattis and Joey Terdoslavich, there really doesn’t need to be any immediate help with the current outfield. Farther down the line, there’s some promise in Low-A and Rookie-Ball as a result of some interesting Latin American players and recent draftees Fernelys Sanchez (who might be able to play center) and Blake Brown. There are few problems with this, however. One, they’re all promise at the moment, and if the Braves continue to be good at what they do, they’ll get one of those guys to make it. And two, they’re most likely 4-5 years away, which doesn’t exactly meet our timeline. Getting extensions with Heyward and Upton players could bridge the gap and profit from the production of both players as they reach and enter their peaks (look at those ages!).
Center Fielders
BJ Upton was the exciting acquisition of the off-season, but his brother upstaged him. That certainly doesn’t mean the Braves didn’t acquire an excellent player, however. Upton will be 28 for most of this season, and he’ll just have turned 33 by the end of his contract. This means the Braves get part of his peak as well as the years just after, when his decline should be the slightest. Upton’s age relative to other free-agents is part of the advantage to signing Upton as opposed to the others, who were all entering or already in their 30s. This lessens the chance that BJ has to move to a corner and/or loses his value, meaning center is likely taken for the next five years.
That, of course, means the Braves don’t need a center field prospect for quite some time. Todd Cunningham will be at AAA this next season, and he may be the best OF prospect the Braves currently have. But he’s officially blocked, and if he has a solid season, he’s likely headed out the door in a trade. Matt Lipka is a little further behind and needs probably a good two full years more in the minors before he’s helpful. If he starts to hit, he could also be trade bait, but the Braves could choose to switch him back to the infield to play 2B or 3B. Farther down the line, the CF situation is similar to the corners, except a lot of the players are recent draftees. They won’t be ready for 4-5 years, but the timeline works much better on that front, especially because the Braves will likely not want to keep the BJ version of Upton around for his mid-30s.
Overall
The outfield is set for the next 3 years, and while it will eat into a large portion of the payroll, it will also be a large part of the overall team’s production during that time. Down on the farm, there’s some talent, but the best of it is probably a long way away.
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Not that I think he will have any impact at all, but if you’re going to mention a guy like Iosif Bernal, it seems you must include Jordan Schafer in the discussion. Just thought I’d point it out.
I guess I could have, but these posts are trying to look more at the future and who will start at each position. Schafer is neither likely to be here long or start.
I don’t get why the Y#’s in these posts always sequence Y3, Y2, Y1; but the A#’s and C#’s always sequence A1, A2, A3, and C1, C2, C3.
The Y’s are for guaranteed contracts and denote the number of years left. I order the others (team Control and Arbitration) differently because it’s more readily understood that “third year of arbitration” is the last year as opposed to “year 5 of contract” denoting when it will be up. Looking at BJ’s contract, it goes all the way to the end. If he had signed a 6-year deal and you (for whatever reason) didn’t know how long the contract was for, putting the numbers in like I did shows you how many years are left.
That being said, that’s the way it makes sense in my head. If other people would like them to be the same ordering(either way), then I can change it.
Do not change yo ish Mark.
When you take into consideration that some players get four years of arbitration, your assertion that ‘“third year of arbitration” is the last year’ is not ‘readily understood’. I was thinking more along the lines of A3 = three years remaining arbitration, A2 = two remaining, etc., which would make ACTUAL sense AND be consistent.
The years he has labelled as the third year of arbitration ARE ALWAYS the last year of arbitration. In some cases (super 2), this would in fact be their fourth year of arbitration.
I am impressed with the content and unconcerned with the format. It took me about two minutes to understand the meaning the various reference markings. Keep doing what you do.
I don’t understand the Up, Up and A-Hey refusal. Kid Cudi’s my jam.
I doubt many people in here know who Kid Cudi is…regardless I think the Up, Up, and A-Hey is reference to that old saying. That being said, it is a stupid and annoying thing to say
Fredi is upset that he doesn’t see Constanza here.
What is sad is that our bench this season looks like it will be Laird, R. Johnson, C. Johnson, Constanza & Janish/Pena. I would like to see it go to Mejia but I wonder if Fredi will want a LH bat/pinch runner over the better bat. Not sure.
I agree the bench needs some work. I am totally all on the sign Kelly Johnson band wagon. He would give us that left-handed hitting bench bat we need to compliment Reed Johnson. Plus why not add another Johnson to the roster? LOL.
Loron, I’m not sure why you are apparently assuming Francisco will start at 3rd over C. Johnson. Johnson may not be anything special, but he’s a proven major leaguer and I’m very skeptical about Francisco. I’m hoping we wouldn’t have traded Prado away if Johnson wasn’t at least as good as Francisco.
Hopefully Heyward and the Uptons will be healthy and Reed Johnson is all the outfield bench help we need, but maybe either Gattis or Constanza should be on the major league roster for depth. I don’t think we have room for both. Since we already have lots of power, maybe that helps Constanza since he is a good pinch runner/speed guy.
I’m assuming a platoon. Leading to more ab for Francisco than C. Johnson.
Johnson’s defense is terrible, from what I’ve read, and he can’t hit lefties any better than Francisco, per the numbers.
Chris Johnson has a reverse platoon split at the major-league level. But what I heard during one of the many videos I watched was that at the minor-league level he’s been your typical platoon split hitter.
I’m not that worried about Juan Francisco potentially getting the majority of the at-bats at 3rd base. Aside from a terrible OBP he was decent when he started in place of Chipper last season posting a slash line of .262/.293/.497 (.790). He homered once ever 20 plate appearances as a starter. Projected out to 450 plate appearances you’re talking about 22 homeruns.
I’m far more concerned with the infield defense at 3B now. Reports are that Francisco is in much better shape now and that he showed a lot of improvement in his range because of it. Let’s hope those reports are true.
It’s a nice article but looking at the Braves OF, 2/3 of it wasn’t even there months ago. If you did the same thing a few years ago you had Jordan Schafer starting in CF and he was shipped out and Bourn was brought in and now he’s gone. The Braves never really have had depth for OF in the majors or minors. Heyward and A. Jones is about it.
You’re absolutely right that things can change. These posts are meant to give a general outlook of possible areas of need. If I had done a post when the outfield had Schafer, Francouer, Anderson, and/or McLouth, I may have said, “Well, we have xxx for a few more years, but we really need to acquire someone else.” Right now, the outfield looks pretty set while the infield is in flux. Francisco/Johnson are okay at 3B, but we’d probably like to acquire a better one should the situation arise.
Love how our troll is called “friend”. But I’ve enjoyed these posts immensely. A simple, easy to understand, look at the contract status of our roster is just great.
I realize this is more a topic for next offseason, but I do wonder whom the Braves will be more determined to extend, J. Upton or J. Heyward. I would think Heyward due to the age factor and the possibly greater fan goodwill value, but that may just be my own bias talking.
I think Heyward would be the clear choice to extend if it came down to having to choose Justin Upton or Heyward when the time comes. Heyward is younger and having grown up in the Atlanta area already has a huge following. There would be a major outcry if Heyward continues to develop at the pace he showed last season and then was allowed to leave in free agency.
This is a little off topic. But I know the old saying is you don’t pay for saves and that has been proven true by teams like Rays and Braves over the years. But Craig Kimbrel isn’t your ordinary every day closer. This kid is something really special. He is well on his way to a Mariano Rivera type career. The numbers and all the records he set last season alone are mind blowing.
The bench, when needed, will naturally consist of a LH power hitter due to the platoon. If I were manager, the bench on OD would be (assuming McCann and Janish are both on DL to begin year): Gattis, R. Johnson, C.Johnson/Francisco, Pena, Constanza. Give Gattis a chance to earn that bench spot and possibly take over as backup catcher when McCann returns should he smash in the first month.
If you like Gattis then you should want him to play catcher at AAA all season. That way he may get the chance to start next season if we let McCann go. The reps in AAA will be better for him than sitting the bench in Atlanta.
Good question, anon21. I would guess that a lot of that will depend on how Upton and Heyward produce over the next year or two.
Personally, I would love our core of young homegrown players to stay together for a long while. A team built around Heyward, Freeman, Simmons, Medlen, Beachy, etc. can be a powerhouse for a long time to come. Plus, I think there is value in having players come up through the system, in terms of team chemistry.
If we can keep Justin Upton around for more than three years, that’s great, but he would really have to blow me away to get me to prioritize re-signing him over Heyward.
When did Terdo become an OF “prospect”?
He’s blocked by Freeman for atleast the next 5 seasons at 1B and his defense is pretty damn close to Brooks Conrad territory at 3B, he’s an absolute butcher with the glove at the hot corner. Personally, I don’t think the organization is doing Joe Terd any favors by moving him to a corner OF spot.
They may as well keep him at 1B (his natural position) and use him as trade bait at the deadline or in the offseason. That’s basically what he’ll become now that the earliest he’d play in the OF or 1B is 2016. However, he’s not likely to even be considered by that point if he’s even still in the organization due to the fact he’d be in the total bust category at age 27.
Filler, not bait*. Can’t imagine he’d be anymore than a throw in piece unless he just starts to rake.
Exactly. It doesn’t matter what position he plays if he can’t hit any better than he did last season. He was completely overmatched at Gwinnett last season.
To be fair, he completely skipped AA before he went to AAA, and he was fine once he was demoted to AA.