Braves Positional Outlook – Starting Rotation
January 28, 2013 at 11:51 am by Mark Smith under Atlanta Braves
Last season was a bit of an adventure for the starting rotation. With Tim Hudson recovering from an injury, the Braves started the season with a rotation of Tommy Hanson, Jair Jurrjens, Brandon Beachy, Mike Minor, and Randall Delgado. Delgado was the assumed pitcher to be dropped from the rotation when Hudson came back, but Jurrjens’ terrible start saw him demoted to AAA. Mike Minor’s strong start soon evaporated into a home run binge that made Coors Field jealous, and Delgado continued vacillating between solid starts and starts in which Livan Hernandez threw more innings. This led the Braves to demote Kris Medlen to transition back into the rotation, but as he got closer to being ready, Delgado and Minor would start pulling out of their downward spirals. Medlen returned to the bullpen, but in mid-June, the Braves lost Beachy to Tommy John surgery, leading to the promotion of Jurrjens.
By mid-June, the rotation was Hudson, Hanson, Jurrjens, Minor, and Delgado, but unsure of the stability of Jurrjens and Delgado, the Braves signed Ben Sheets, who hadn’t pitched since 2010. Two minor-league starts later, Sheets was back in the rotation in early/mid July, and Delgado had finally lost his spot in the rotation. Jurrjens, after a strong return, couldn’t keep it going, and he lost his rotation spot to Medlen, who would begin his epic run, at the Trade Deadline. Further bolstering the rotation, the Braves acquired Paul Maholm from the Cubs and put the slumping Hanson on the DL. In about a month, the Braves rotation had all of a sudden become Hudson, Maholm, Minor, Medlen, and Sheets.
As Hanson worked his way back from injury, the rotation stabilized. Medlen was awesome, Minor was also awesome, Hudson battled through ankle problems, Sheets was oddly consistent, and Maholm was pretty good. Considering the extended use of a six-man rotation, the inevitable Sheets injury occurred, and Hanson would fill that spot for the rest of the season. By the end of the season, the Hanson, Jurrjens, Beachy, Minor, and Delgado rotation had become Hudson, Maholm, Medlen, Minor, and Hanson with Medlen acting as the ace of the staff.
It’s not exactly what everyone had in mind, but such is the life of a major-league pitching rotation.
Starting Rotation
Heading into 2013, the rotation has changed yet again. Jurrjens would be non-tendered, and Hanson would be traded for Jordan Walden. After trading Delgado to the Diamondbacks, the open slot in the rotation appears to belong to Julio Teheran, unless someone else is signed to compete with him. The depth of the rotation, especially after the trade of Delgado and Spruill, has lessened, and as evidenced by last season (and basically most seasons), depth is important.
Luckily, the one thing the Braves do have in their system is pitching. While Sean Gilmartin and JR Graham aren’t likely to begin the season ready for the MLB, both could be ready enough to fill in if there’s an emergency situation, and if the Braves can hold out until mid-season, Beachy’s comeback can give the rotation depth a significant boost. I wouldn’t expect him to be awesome when he gets back, but considering the rotation is likely to lose a member due to injury or lack of production, Beachy’s a much better addition than many other clubs would have. The Braves just have to make it to that point.
Looking to 2014, Hudson and Maholm are obviously free-agents. That leaves a 2014 rotation of Medlen, Minor, Beachy, Teheran, and one of Gilmartin/Graham. In addition to whoever loses the 5th spot in the rotation, the Braves will have additional depth in Aaron Northcraft, Alex Wood, and Cody Martin heading to AAA in the same capacity as Graham/Gilmartin this season. There’s some depth here, but things are beginning to become tenuous.
The 2015 rotation could look very similar, but Medlen will be heading into his final arbitration season. That leaves 2016 with a rotation of Beachy (now in his final arb season), Minor, Teheran, Gilmartin/Graham, Graham/Gilmartin/Northcraft/Wood/Martin, and the best two pitching prospects (well at this moment), Mauricio Cabrera and Luke Sims, are scheduled to be getting to AAA. Of course by 2016, a lot of things can change, especially with pitching. Below is a table of possible rotations/depth for the next five years (guys in gray are scheduled to be in AAA but are probably just emergency options for that season).
Overall
Heading into 2013, I feel very confident in the rotation as I’m bullish on Medlen and Minor retaining most of their 2012 second-half success, and solid veteran seasons from Hudson and Maholm should help steady the rotation. I will, however, remind you of the general concerns about rotation depth and attrition.
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What are the possibilities of resigning Tim Hudson after this season? And what would it cost? And as important as the dollars are the years. Or is Huddy’s 2012 salary earmarked for arbitration raises?
I think after loosing Chipper and having quite the young staff Huddy’s leadership role cannot be understated.
When I projected arbitration salaries for next season, I have about $75-80M spoken for. With 2 SP and C (maybe 3B as well) leaving, at least one rotation spot and C need to be filled in under $20M. Honestly, if I were to pick between Hudson and Maholm, I’d probably pick Maholm due to age and price, but I could see either being brought back. A lot kind of depends on how the team’s prospects/young pitchers develop in 2013.
The wild card is the new ESPN and FOX TV deals giving teams $20M+ more revenue. How that will be allocated is unknown.
Interested to see how they handle Beachy’s return. With Medlen’s second half last season, it’s easy to forget that he was basically the staff ace of 2012.
Two unrelated points:
1. Rays signed Kelly Johnson. RI{ #SignKJ. dammit.
2. Phillies signed Yuniesky Betancourt to a minor league deal. Delmon Young, Michael Young, Ryan Howard, Yuniesky Betancourt in 2012: -3.9 WAR. Think that’s the best news? They also just picked up Chad “Disturbin” Durbin. Amaro is a full time santa claus.
Ignoring me on this matter doesn’t change the fact that you are incorrect (and should know better), and it is cowardly. The third year of arbitration is not the final year of arbitration, as you insist, for all players. Hunter Pence, for example, is in his fourth year of arbitration.
Must resist feeding the troll……urgh. Although I will say that Mark NEVER says that there are definitely only 3 years of arbitration. At least get your facts straight if you’re gonna troll.
He didn’t ignore you – it’s just you are the only one who cares about something so insignificant.
LOL @ “cowardly”
“friend”? Certainly not of the blog, it would appear
Bring down the “Ban Hammer” Thor.
the only way that the 3rd year is not the final year is if a player is a super 2. For any non-super 2 players the third year is the final year of arb. The only difference would be not the final year, but the third year, whether it it C3 or A1.
So, yes, the years Mark has labelled A3 are ALWAYS the final arbitration year. Some of the C3 years could turn into A1 for players who have not yet reached that point. It is not the case that some players could have an extra year of arbitration added on to the end, like you seem to imply, it’s that they have one of their years of full team control subtracted in favor of an arbitration year in the third year of their major league contract.
Further, you’re on the verge of being IP banned, not because of your criticisms, but because of your tone, and the fact that you gave fake registration info.
Edit: as mark said, he labelled those years as STA1
My interest in visiting this site is based on finding information that is interesting and factually accurate. Mr. Smith has finally responded, and acknowledged that I am correct. I feel justified in my anonymity due to the hostility demonstrated by the other participants as witnessed by their replies to me. If banning me will give you some sort of pleasure, then by all means do so quickly. It would be preferable to engaging you in some silly little word fight!
no, you’re not correct. You simply misunderstood Mark’s labels. Nothing Mark has on any of the graphs is wrong.
Further, after calling someone ‘cowardly’ you’re honestly worried about ‘hostile’ responses?
I did not misunderstand the labels, nor did I claim that anything on the graphs was wrong. I simply pointed out that it was inconsistant. It is obvious that a great deal of work was behind the effort and I inferred that the author would appreciate being apprised of the matter. After my explanation remained unacknowledged for almost three days, and having seen the author move on to his next article, it should not be unexpected that my next comment expressed a somewhat stronger level of emotion.
yes, you either misunderstood or ignored that STA1 stood for arbitration years gained due to super 2 status.
Do you honestly believe that the same author that crafted the in-depth analysis that you find on this site does not know what super-two status is?
It’s as obvious to me as it is to both of you that the author understands super-two status, but if you want the last word go ahead. That’s all I have to say about that.
My only question to you friend is why do you feel you are entitled to a response from the author. Many good comments and questions go missed because the authors here have lives beyond answering to all of us readers. I don’t have to pay to get in depth analysis here that ESPN would charge insider access if they even attempted it. It is not cowardly to have a life beyond this site for the authors. Most of us other readers are greatful to have these guys and this site and we are sorry if we upset you by being rude but we respect them so much many of us jumped on you when you started to nit pick and act entitled.
“Ignoring me on this matter doesn’t change the fact that you are incorrect (and should know better), and it is cowardly.”
You later say that you didn’t claim that anything is wrong? mark clearly never said that all players get 3 years of arbitration. He simply labelled super 2 arbitration years as STA1. This is all I mean by saying that you misunderstood the labels. Perhaps Mark’s labels could have been clearer, but so far as I can tell everybody else understood them.
You then refer to incorrectly calling someone ‘incorrect’ and a ‘coward’ as “slightly more strongly worded”
Quit acting like you were wronged here. You didn’t understand the labels Mark put on his spreadsheet. No harm there, maybe they could have been clearer. You then had some bizarre need to claim Mark was wrong, instead of just unclear, and started calling people cowardly. You then apparently got your feelings hurt because people called you out.
Mark is the kind of guy who, if he had been incorrect, would be the first to admit it and fix it and thank you.
He wasn’t wrong, not that it matters, and your bizarre crusade to turn you misunderstanding his labels (not that there is anything wrong with that) into him being wrong and a coward is just sort of funny at this point.
I’m sorry if I “ignored” you. To your point on arbitration, you are correct that Super-Two status can give a person four years of arbitration, but if such a situation happens (ie. Cristhian Martinez, Chris Johnson, Juan Francisco), the STA1 is the indication that the player is a Super Two. Either way, it seems like everyone else is okay with the format as is.
You could always cry a little more about it. Maybe that will help?
It may be insignificant, but you omitted Rodriguez from the AAA options. He was signed out of the Mexican League last August and FW speaks highly of him, although I only know what I have read.
You bring up a good point that Andrew also pointed out. I considered adding Rodriguez to the list, but I find it highly unlikely that he’ll realistically be a part of the starting rotation plans moving forward. He’s 28 and had pitched well for 3 years in the Mexican League. I had planned on talking about him at length in the bullpen outlook (I think he’ll end up being an option once EOF leaves), but I think I should have mentioned him here as well. If something happens early, we may see him, but his chances of being a bullpen arm probably get exponentially higher as the season progresses.
If not bringing back either FA pitcher gives the Braves enough money to resign McCann, then I’d be more than happy to go with Gilmartin/Graham in the 5th spot next year.
I think that is going to be heavily determined by McCann and his production this season, and how much he wants to stay with the Braves (how much he’ll be willing to give up yearly).
I agree. The Braves will take a wait and see approach with McCann. If he can get back to being a .270-.280 hitter and still has his power I believe the Braves will try very hard to keep him. If he has another really bad year like he did last year when he was injured the Braves will simply let him walk.
It also depends on Medlen, Beachy, Minor and Teheran to continue to progress. Any signs of weakness from any of them will result in us signing at least one veteran pitcher like Maholm or Hudson. Remember last season we felt great about our rotation before the season and it was not long before our whole rotation was shook up. Last year we all though Hanson would be the ace of this staff for years to come.
I’m worried about how the Braves defense will effect the pitching staff. Beachy and Minor are both fly ball pitchers who will benefit greatly from the improved outfield defense. But I worry about how Medlen, Hudson and Maholm will suffer from the lack of infield defense with Prado’s departure.
During the podcast it was joked that maybe Simmons’ arm will allow him to play deeper than a normal shortstop position and increase his range to try to make up for lack of range from Francisco at third.
Well I am not sure you have much to worry defensively. The outfield defense can’t really be improved because last year it was the best in the majors by a pretty large margin. I actually expect a slight decline in defensive value in the OF (BJ Upton is worse than Bourn) but overall it should still be a solid unit.
Everyone else on the infield will be the same as last year, except at third where fat Juan will probably take over. There is a limited sample on Juan but thus far the metrics seem to indicate he is right at average defensively and will play about like Chipper did his last year defensively.
So no worries Tim, we should be fine defensively and again one of the better offensive teams.
Juan has a pretty solid arm and less gut / love handles should equal more range. He’ll probably end up being a little better than 40 year old Chipper Jones. He’s obviously not the defender Prado is, but I think the infield defense should at least be better than last season with a full year from Simmons and no Pastornicky. But yeah, about a full season’s worth of Juan’s glove is probably as much of a toss up as what his offensive production is going to be.
My basis on saying that the outfield defense would be better is that Justin Upton won the fielding bible for RF in 2011 and scouts have said that Prado’s outfield defense while solid wasn’t quite as good as the numbers point out. Also the Uptons are much better throwers than Prado and Bourn. There should be absolutely no reason at all any runner should take an extra base against any of our outfielders arm.
And I understand what you’re saying about the field defense. I’m guessing that a full season with Simmons at SS instead of Pastornicky will pretty much result in a wash between Chipper and Francisco. And I didn’t take into account how bad Chipper was defensively last season.
He actually wasn’t that bad last season apart from his amazing throw to second in the wild card crapshoot.
Chipper was below average defensively last season. I’m actually surprised it wasn’t worse considering he was flat out awful defensively in 2009 and 2011.
Say what you want about defensive metrics, but they rated Chipper pretty favorably in the past few seasons, especially 2012.
According to Fangraphs here are Chipper’s wins value on defense for the last few years.
2012 -0.1
2011 -8.0
2010 0.1
2009 -6.3
2008 3.5
2007 1.8
2006 -9.7
So you have to go back all the way to 2008 to find a year when Chipper was a real positive defensively.
I wouldn’t quite say our outfield defense will be improved as BJ Upton doesn’t quite compare to Bourn and Justin probably won’t play all-around well defense as Prado did either, but Justin certainly has more speed.
From Fransisco, I’m hoping some of the weight he has lost will enable him to increase his range a little bit over there. Just a thought.
Justin Upton will be a pretty big upgrade defensively over Prado in LF. He’s a top 5 RF over his career and the only reason he’s not going to be in right is our current guy is the best defensively.
Wow, I can’t believe this “friend” of ours has such an ax to grind because he didn’t get the acknowledgment he felt he deserved, grow up!
Got the pimp hand put down on him for getting mouthy though, and I love it!
Oh, and good stuff too in the article. I have really been enjoying having some Braves baseball stuff to read while waiting for Spring Training and to occupy my mind while I was waiting for us to acquire J-Up.
Hey, and I know Chipper retired and then even kicked the idea or coming to Spring Training this year, but any chance the Braves or Chipper would want to make the comeback a reality…he’d be a great presence for leadership IMO with Prado leaving.
Just something I’ve been thinking about since I read that article last week.
I would say a mid-season Chipper return ala Clemens would be the most likely scenario, but I think he’s not exactly gonna be in mid-season form by that point if you know what I mean.
True and good point, just trying to think of a way to have old #10 in the dugout since I have such a hard time remembering a Braves team without him.
Thanks for all the hard work!
I don’t remember where I read it at but I read that Chipper a few weeks ago was feeling so good that he decided to head down to the Braves spring training complex to get a workout in and then after about 5 minutes called it quits and hopped on a plane to Hawaii.
It was a joke he made in his acceptance speech for the BBWAA long and meritorious service award.
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=25564801&topic_id=&c_id=atl&tcid=vpp_copy_25564801&v=3
Sorry but I’ve gotta bring this up one more time because it just baffles me. Friend- If you look at the freaking infield projections, you’ll see Chris Johnson AND Juan Francisco as having an “A4″ year. How you can say Mark incorrectly labeled the arbitration stats is beyond me.
TROLL
Mark probably went back and edited the page after Friend called him out. I also have yet to hear Mark call Benghazi attacks an “Act of Terror”.
Haha. I didn’t go back and edit anything. Been there since the beginning. I think the whole thing was a guy seeing something that didn’t quite jive with the way he understood it, and it’s blown up since then. Just time to move on.
Kidding, of course. I know this isn’t meme-y site, but I got a good laugh out of that absurdity.
Forgot about Avilan. Maybe you should’ve been more clear about him!
I expect our pitching depth train to keep on rolling via draft picks over the next few years as well.
I woul really like to see us keep adding to our SS and 3B and OF depth via the draft though. middle infielders bring good returns in trade
A few good drafts could really help. The team has 2-3 years to boost this system and/or payroll, or the window will likely close.
I was just talking about this with someone else. Pretty much the Braves have a 3 year window where it’s World Series or bust.
How about Okajima as the new LOOGY? Or is the bullpen full with the Walden addition? Anyways, lease stop using Gearrin against LH.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/01/softbank-hawks-release-hideki-okajima.html
With EOF, Venters, and Avilan, there’s no need for a LOOGY.
Why are left-handed specialists called LOOGY’s?
“Lefty One Out GuY”
Thanks.
Thanks.
It seems unlikely that the team would be comfortable with a rotation full of young guys in 2014 and 2015. Those are prime “window of contention” years for this team. But all of the guys projected to be in the rotation look pretty solid, except of course for Teheran.
I can’t see the team turning Hudson away in 2014 if he’s healthy and effective in 2013.
He may or may not admit it, but I imagine he regrets the way he handled stuff with Smoltz and Glavine a few years ago.
Sorry, by “he” I mean Wren.
I think those situations were handled great. Glavine and Smoltz are great but were old at the time. Lets not forget about Glavine to the Mets. I don’t care if that guy gets his feelings hurt a little.
Have you ever read John Schurholtz’s book? I have it and it explains the whole Glavine to the Mets deal in it. Remember that Glavine was pretty pissed off when the book came out because it had everything in there. But basically Schurholtz and Bobby had been at Glavine’s house the night before he signed with the Mets and left thinking that Glavine was coming back to the Braves but Glavine didn’t know his big shot agent had already agreed to a deal with the Mets. Glavine pretty much had to go to the Mets.
I think GMs are allowed to make and learn from mistakes. Look at Jon Daniels. What I’d really like is to get a front-of-the-rotation type to really thicken the rotation, but it’s not really “necessary”.
I think Wren is probably a better GM now than he was a few years ago, and certainly better than his days back in Baltimore. And I think he would readily admit that. I don’t know if he would admit to a particular move or trade being a mistake.
Luckily, everyone in the NL East (besides FW and Mike Rizzo) is self-destructing. There is a nice window here for the Braves and Nats. I can’t dislike DC. God help us when Rendon and Cole/Giolito come of age.
I agree. I had been rooting for years for the Nationals to get on their feet so to speak and now they have and are set up greatly for the future. These next few years are going to be great. Hopefully this rivalry lasts longer than the Braves/Mets rivalry did in the late 90s/early 2000s.
I don’t think Wren did Smoltz wrong because Smoltz was simply not brought back after the 2008 season and was allowed to leave in free agency. But he clearly was wrong with the way he handed the Glavine situation. But I’m sure he learned from that.
I think that Wren’s decisions regarding both Glavine and Smoltz were good baseball decisions, but these guys are both HOF franchise icons. They still mean a lot to the fanbase and they are incredibly valuable to the team in a number of ways.
We all saw how much mileage the team got from Chipper’s farewell tour last year.
It would have been nice, and quite lucrative, to give those guys some sort of public send-off.
It seems to be water under the bridge now.
But Glavine should have just not been re-signed like Smoltz was after the 2008 season. But Glavine was re-signed with the promise that once he was healthy and ready to go the Braves would give him a spot in the rotation. But instead on the day he was suppose to be added to the active roster he was cut because the Braves made the trade for Nate McLouth. I just don’t think that was handled correctly.
Incorrect. It was a choice between bringing up Tommy Hanson who was absolutely killing it in Gwinnett or activate Glavine who apparently looked like shit in his rehab starts.
From what I remember Glavine had just made a rehab start and which was said to have been great but that afternoon (I remember it was a Wednesday because I was at church) the Braves traded for McLouth and in order to open up a roster spot for McLouth on the 40-man roster the Braves released Glavine.
Smoltzie is my favorite pitcher of all time, but his shoulder was held together with staples and chewing gum and should’ve known to hang it up that last season. I wouldn’t have signed him to anything except the small-ish contract that he turned down.
Both were the correct baseball decisions. I think Wren learned to hold his cards a little closer to his vest from that offseason, as he came off looking foolish just because of all the targets he missed out on.
Of course, the Smoltz thing would probably have come out anyway because everyone knew we were trying to re-sign him and he seemed rather pissed about the Braves’ offer, fair as it was, so he might have complained to the media anyway. Boston could afford to overpay him far more than we could.
As for “young guys in the rotation”, check out the starting pitching on recent teams such as the Rays, Nationals, and Athletics. In 2014 we’ll have Minor (5th season), Medlen (6th), Beachy (4th), Teheran (4th), and Gilmartin/Sims/etc probably seeing their second year in the majors. That’s not even that young.
Who cares how young your rotation is, so long as they are productive? If people like Graham, Wood, and Northcraft earn spots in the rotation and are among the 5 best pitchers on the team, then age doesn’t matter at all.
Did anybody else read Frank wren interview with the Macon telegraph?? I thought it was a very insightful read that explains some of the behind scene ..I absolutely love Martin Prado but twelve mill per season quite much…obviously if we never extended uggla at 13 mill per then I’m sure braves would’ve found a way to extend Prado as a 3rd or 2nd base realistically
Also I believe EOF name surfaced in Justin Upton trade..how many of us would’ve chosen EOF instead of Prado as final piece to this trade?? If they wanted both Prado and eof then.we chose right..but if we could’ve shipped Juan and eof instead of Prado then I would’ve much preferred that route
http://www.macon.com/2013/01/26/2331301/frank-wren-interview.html
I’m curious whether the CAC writers and readers worry about our rotation. I think we as Braves fans are sometimes a little too cavalier about our rotation. In my opinion, it’s by far the most worrisome aspect of our team. Granted, we have enough talent to be a solid team regardless, but if something besides injuries keeps us out of the playoffs, I do believe it will be our starting pitching.
-I like Minor a lot, and he’s certainly better than he was in the first half, but I think the idea that Minor had terrible luck is a bit overplayed. He slightly outperformed his peripherals, finished with a very low BABIP and his HR/FB rate was only slightly above average. For all the bad luck he had in the first half, he had very good luck in the second half. He did improve his walk rate, but that was the only real difference in his peripherals. Based on his past and pedigree, I do think he will be better this year (and he might be the surest thing in our rotation), but I think predicting much more than a 2 win season out of him is overly ambitious.
-Paul Maholm is a solid 2-3 win pitcher, but there’s not reason to think he’d be better than that, and on the wrong side of 30, he’s more likely to be below 2 than above 3.
-Hudson continues his agelessness, but, once again, he’s a 3 win pitcher, and at his age, it’s more likely he will be worse than better than that.
-Teheran (and Graham/Gilmartin) should be a solid five starter, but after his struggles last year, I think everyone would be happy with even an average performance.
-It’s hard to count on Beachy coming back from surgery, especially after his profile changed so much last year (something that we don’t talk about enough), and we can’t be sure what kind of pitcher he will be.
-And finally we come to Medlen. His run and his peripherals were both phenomenal, and even before then he had shown potential to be a solid major league starter. Because he is such a unique case, there is a chance he truly will be an outstanding 1 or 2 starter. But there is also a chance he is merely average also. I think in many ways the fate of our starters lies with Medlen because he has the most upside and also the most potential variation in performance.
The Braves were 17th in starters’ fWAR last year, with 11.9. Our run prevention was better, thanks to a combination of luck and good defense, neither of which will be there to the same degree this year. I honestly am not sure our starting pitchers will perform much better than 11.9 wins next year (it’s not a bad estimate), and I think there’s at least as much room for downside as upside. Obviously, if Medlen pitches like he did last year and Minor and/or Teheran improves and Beachy recovers and Maholm and Hudson continue to be solid, we could have a fabulous rotation. And if that happens, we will have an amazing team. I do think there is a greater margin of error and more possible downside with our starting pitching than any other facet of our team.
Roy Halladay was hurt and struggled last year. It happens. The rotation looks good on paper and the bullpen is fantastic so I think we should be fine, but if you had to pick the weakest aspect of the team I think it’s the bench and then the rotation.
I agree about the bench being worse, but I wasn’t really counting them because I don’t think the bench can really make or break a season. And I’m not really expressing a concern about injuries to the rotation but about effectiveness. Our rotation certainly has the potential to be above average, but I think our expected outcome is closer to average or even slightly below average. Almost every contender in the NL has a better rotation than us: Nats, Phils, Reds, Cards, Dodgers, Giants. You could also make cases that the Cubs and D’Backs have equal or better rotations. Having a great bullpen helps, but as good as our rotation was a few years ago, they’re nowhere near that level now.
I think you’re a little more down on the rotation than you should be. There are some question marks but it’s pretty solid and has the potential to be a top tier rotation, especially a month or so after Beachy returns.
Yeah, I agree about the potential. But in terms of expected performance for this year, I’d still take any other contender’s except maybe San Fran over ours.
I disagree. In the NL where you have to constantly shuffle the lineup in the late innings because of pinch-hitting for the pitcher and double-switches and such a good bench and a terrible bench could be the difference between 3 or 4 wins that could be the difference between playing in October and sitting at home.
I think the bench is the most worrisome part of the team right now. Fat Juan, Janish, Laird, RJohnson, Ramiro Pena. That’s not a group that inspires fear. I’m not sure I want any of those guys at the plate with the game on the line. I think Hudson is a better hitter than a couple of those guys.
But I think Wren will use spring training to evaluate these guys and make the necessary additions. Adding a solid pinch hitter during spring isn’t such a huge task.
If the Braves fail to make the playoffs, I think it will be because of the rotation. On paper the rotation is excellent, and obviously very deep, but every guy has a question mark next to his name. There’s nobody you can definitely put down for 200 innings or close to 20 wins. I think the guy most likely to hit 200 innings is Minor, but he’s never topped 180 before. Who will lead the team in wins? I wouldn’t want to even hazard a guess. ERA? Who knows? WAR?
Question on Beachy’s return…
First off, obviously he won’t be Beachy of old in 2013. It’s usually the 2nd year removed from Tommy John that we see the old pitcher. Do you guys think the Braves bring him back in a relief role in the 2nd half? It could limit his innings (since he’ll likely have an innings limit anyways). Or does he go straight back in the rotation? What if Teheran is pitching great?
Just some thoughts on the situation.
I think your last question answers your first question. Obviously, they would love to bring Beachy back as carefully as possible. Probably something very similar to the way in which Meds was brought back (in fact, his plan may very well be adopted by the rest of MLB).
But, I think it will be largely based on our needs at the time. If Teheran is pitching well and the rest of the rotation is still healthy and not struggling, then Beachy is likely in the bullpen for awhile.
On the other hand, if Teheran is struggling and/or we have an injury in the rotation meaning Gilmartin is making spot starts, then Beachy is likely inserted right into the rotation as soon as he is ready.
Interesting read on J. Upton’s defense:
http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/60793/defensive-issues-hurting-uptons-value
Are you guys looking into using a new layout for the site anytime soon? Navigating the comments is giving me a headache.
I would support a straight, numbered, chronological view of comments. If you wanted to respond specifically to someone, you could always do an “@9″ or “@vivabeta.” If I’m not mistaking, this is how the comments used to be.
Of course, I’m not shelling out any money for the site, so I get it if changes are easier to suggest than they are to implement.
I’ll offer again to help rework the site if you guys want. That’s what I do up here in NY, I’m an art director for Showtime. I’m assuming you’re just using a wordpress template.
probably not, all comments systems have their issues. We essentially have the same exact system as fangraphs and ESPN. allowing comments to go too far nested has its issues, as responses just become unreadable. But at the same time straight numbered has its issues, especially on long threads, as if one comment gets removed it throws things off. The numbering system used to get thrown out of whack all the time on the old system, with comment numbers not matching up. I think what we have is probably the best compromise, we looked at several different schemes, and this seemed to work the best.
Thanks for the feedback, and it is something we will continue to monitor.
I think the color scheme and layout make it a little hard to read. Addressing that would make navigating the comments a more pleasant experience.
I agree. I think it’s more the color scheme than the way the comments are posted. Instead of just a plain white background for everything maybe have contrasting colors for each comment if that is even possible.
@tim
contrasting colors for comments is something we looked at, but it really killed the clean look of the site.
Yeah the color scheme is the biggest issue. You guys could just simply change the background color to black and the text to the same color “Capitol Avenue Club” is in and I think that it would be a drastic difference in readability.
Think of how a Kindle is designed the way it is, with a soft grey background with dark grey/not quite black text. It’s made that way to be easy on the eyes.. not a bright white contrasting brain melter.
we tried a lot of color schemes. Study after study shows that white backgrounds with black text is actually the most readable. By far the hardest on the eyes is a black background. For instance, go to apple.com, perhaps the most respected company design wise in the world, and what do you see? White backgrounds with black text. Go to the New York Times website. It’s pure white with black text. ESPN.com, same thing. Almost every site that requires heavy reading is white with black text.
I’m not trying to disparage your opinions, but we did try several color schemes and this was what we picked on purpose. In general, its been pretty well received. We wanted simple and clean.
Further, the kindle is mostly designed the way it is, not to be easy on the eyes, but for max battery life. iPads and kindle fires are generally viewed to be easier to read, because they’re brighter, assuming you don’t have glare, in most market studies. Its just that high contrast kills battery life.
Again, I really do appreciate the feedback, but we are very happy with the current site design.
I’ll pull the Art Director card too, I have no issues with the site. The information is key here, and any embellishments you add will distract from the posts and info graphics.
@Franklin
Well thanks for considering our feedback. I really do enjoy reading the well informed posts here.
no problem Tim. Thanks for the regular participation. I don’t mean to seem obtuse about it, we did a LOT of research into the site design last year and came up with this site design. We considered a LOT of options. No design is going to be perfect for everybody, but hopefully this more or less suits everybody’s needs. Again, thanks for reading.
I think what would help is if the line separating each comment was darker. It’s just so faint. Other than that, I actually love the design of the site.
Let me preface this by saying how much I love this site and that while I don’t think it looks horrible I think it could be spruced up visually. I honestly believe it’s the best source for discussion about the Braves available, and I’ve been here for a while, having argued with Peter on many occasion back when Prado was threatening to take Kelly Johnson’s job.
I definitely think you have a valid point with the color, and I don’t necessarily have an issue with that. Not to get into a typography lecture, but there are reasons why the NY Times and Apple sites–while having similar traits–are more successful in their execution. For one, a serif typeface is easier to read and more comfortable for the eyes to take in, which is why the NYTimes haven’t switched to a sans serif for their body copy. Sans serif’s are perfectly appropriate here, but the details need to be worked out. Apple on the other hand, isn’t a place for essays so while they use a sans serif, the information is broken up smartly which leads to easy reading. My recommendation would be to either make the type a bit larger and make the leading (line spacing) a little looser. Currently the type is too small for the space allotted. Check out the body copy for the stories on SB Nation. Say what you will about their general design, but they do a great job with setting the type for their editorials. The type size, line spacing, letter spacing, column width, and hierarchy of information are all pretty well thought out and executed. Just trying to help.
I disagree with every design-related thing you just asserted. None of those things are “rules”. You sound more like an insufferable design student. And you are kinda being pushy here. Acting like they should feel fortunate to be offered your expert advice.
@todd and viva
I’d appreciate if we could just move on from this. There’s no point in it. We are very happy with the site, as are the vast majority of our readers. We appreciate the feedback, as always, but at this point we should probably just move on.
Since it concerned pitching, I thought this you guys might want to know. Gio Gonzalez possibly used PED’s. If he did, he received them from the same guy as Melky Cabrera.
Ass-Rod as well… Again….