Martin Prado Signs 4 Year $40 Million Extension With Diamondbacks
January 31, 2013 at 3:39 pm by Franklin Rabon under Atlanta Braves
Ken Rosenthal reported today that Martin Prado has signed a 4 year 40 Million dollar extension to stay with the Diamondbacks through 2016.
The first thing to note here is that this isn’t, in some sense, a 4 year extension. It’s 1 year of arbitration avoidance at 7 million, and then a 3 year extension at 11 million per year. As reported the breakdown is thus:
2013: $7 Million (age 29)
2014: $11 Million (age 30)
2015: $11 Million (age 31)
2016: $11 Million (age 32)
First, this is by no means a bad deal for Arizona. It could even be a discount. Sure, these will be what are for most players mild decline years. But they shouldn’t be a steep decline either. It is completely reasonable that in 2016 Martin Prado could be a 2.5 win player at age 32, meaning that at $5 million per win (the generally accepted free market rate) Prado would still be a mild value then (and that’s without taking probable player salary inflation due to the new national TV contract into account).
Does this change anything from the Braves perspective regarding the Justin Upton trade? Not really. First, it was always clear that Prado wasn’t demanding outlandish sums in an extension, he was simply demanding more than the Braves felt they could afford, with the looming extensions of Heyward, Medlen (both 2016) and possibly McCann (depending on his health and Bethancourt’s development). Further, if many of the Braves young core players perform up to the level we expect, guys like Simmons, Freeman, Heyward, Medlen, Kimbrel, etc could all be making fairly sizable salaries through arbitration over the next couple of years. It became clear that while Prado is somewhat of a bargain, he was still a player the Braves felt that they couldn’t afford.
Secondly, it is really unclear what Prado’s agent’s demands from the Braves were. There is some speculation that his agent initially high-balled Wren on both the arbitration demand from this year, and an extension demand, and only came down after it became apparent that the Braves felt that they could move on from Prado. Perhaps the original estimate of $15 million that Prado’s agent was demanding wasn’t inaccurate, we simply can’t know.
One further factor in these dealings is that the Braves may still be fairly high on Edward Salcedo. This is very much a make or break type year for a player, who has, frankly, underwhelmed to this point. The Braves have next to nothing in the system that profiles as an impact outfielder (Todd Cunningham and Matt Lipka profile more as fourth outfielder guys), but Salcedo, if he can get his act together, could be an impact player at third. Maybe the Braves felt more comfortable locking up their outfield long term than third base? I personally wouldn’t put a very high likelihood of Salcedo ever making the majors, but there are some that do, and the Braves themselves likely have the best information in this regard. It will be an interesting situation to watch. The Braves may even feel that Juan Francisco just needs more opportunities. There are simply too many factors to even really be able to begin to clearly know what the Braves strategy is long term at third base.
Getting back to Prado, this is an interesting extension for him. It might be a couple million per year below what he could get in free agency. However, it is one additional year that he doesn’t have to worry about some freak injury (or massive regression) seriously impacting his value. Further, it potentially allows him to hit the market again for one last big contract right before he hits what are usually the precipitous decline years of 33-37. His agent could have been seeking to time the market to give Prado one additional chance at a really good free agent contract. A six year extension would have deposited Prado into the free agency pool during years where free agents typically see their salary drastically reduced.
For one final note, let’s use this news to consider an angle that hasn’t much been discussed regarding Justin Upton. Much has been, and is being, made of the value Arizona got in the ‘exclusive bargaining window’ with Prado. That is, Arizona seemed to save at least some money because they were able to negotiate with Prado outside of a fully developed free agency market. How much exactly? That’s really anybody’s guess, especially since some of the discount was also likely due to Arizona taking on the additional year’s worth of risk of major injury or major regression. However, it shouldn’t be overlooked that if anything ‘exclusive negotiating window’ rights are actually in the Braves’ favor, as they now have three years of exclusive negotiation window with Justin Upton. Remember that Upton will actually be younger at the end of his current contract than Prado is right now. The Braves can take this year and see how he rebounds, and then possibly consider extending both he and Heyward into their early thirties and lock up a dynamic pair of corner outfielders, both possessing multiple MVP talent throughout their entire prime years. This is certainly an upside that didn’t exist with Prado. The Braves also have the bargaining chip that BJ Upton is signed longer than Justin is, so they can potentially further leverage a discount to extend their playing time together, which both brothers seem to highly value.
In the end, this extension is certainly good for the Diamondbacks, salvaging what otherwise may have been a disastrous trade by extending a player at a mild to significant discount. It’s good for Prado (though perhaps not as good as it maybe could have been), as it allows him to play one position, which he’s wanted for a while, and gives him financial security, while still allowing him to likely get one more big free agent contract (or extension). And it isn’t damning for the Braves either, as they have an even more valuable exclusive negotiation window with Justin Upton, if they want to work on an extension. Nobody, outside of disgruntled Atlanta Prado fans delusionally hoping he might sign with the Braves after this season should be upset with this news.
Loading ...
I think the Braves value Francrisco and C. Johnson much more than any of us realize.
yes, that’s certainly possible. It will be very interesting to see how the future of third base plays out here.
Let’s not overlook Joe Leonard for third base also. Everybody infers Salcedo – we are getting too far ahead of ourselves – he is 2-3 years out at the least. Leonard won a gold glove last year while at AA – if his bat comes around he will be a strong candidate for third base.
I wouldn’t hold my breath on him if I were you. For a 3B, he does have pretty decent OBP #s but doesn’t hit for a high average and has very little power for the position as well. Considering Johnson isn’t a FA until 2017 and Francisco until 2018, the only way Leonard gets any kind of time at 3B in Atlanta is if Johnson/Francisco both put up offensive stats that rival what McCann did this past season and Leonard just knocks the cover off the ball in AAA. If the Johnson/Francisco platoon prove to be even just barely above serviceable this year, I think Leonard will get traded.
Thanks for this really great analysis. I would be really interested to know what the Braves offered Prado. I was surprised to see such a low number after DOB’s report that extension negotiations broken down in December. I wonder if Prado’s demands were dramatically lowered over the last two months or if the Braves simply valued Prado below his estimated market value. I guess it’s most likely a combination of factors: (1) the perception that Upton offered more upside to Prado; (2) the desire to commit scarce FA dollars to hard-to-obtain power hitters rather than speed and contact players; (3) the realization that the club needs to prioritize money for their talented young players; (4) the club’s greater minor league depth at 3B than the OF; and (5) perhaps some skepticism that Prado was really a 5-6 win player in 2010 and 2012. I certainly wish Prado all the best, but the front office seems to have maintained a healthy skepticism about his future production over the last two offseasons, and it will be really interesting to see if that proves prescient.
regarding point 2, Prado isn’t really a speed player. Upton is more of a Speed player than Prado is. Prado is a contact player with some gap pop who plays good defense.
Right, sorry, I meant that as a general point about the apparent lack of interest in extending Prado or Bourn. I realize that there are other factors (especially age) at play in the preference for the Uptons, but I do wonder if this is part of a broader organizational preference to prioritize power in major contract decisions.
yes, it certainly seems that Wren seems to value power over contact. Which is something I think many of us here at CAC are very on board with. Obviously power and contact are best, but if you have to chose one or the other, I’d take power.
Keep up the great writing, just discovered this blog a few weeks ago but come back everyday to read your great writings! Keep up the daily entries!
It won’t be daily entries. But it is the best analysis you can find on the Braves. Making any wait worthwhile, due to the quality of the work.
we’re hoping that once spring training starts, this year with 5 writers, it’s at least daily. we’ve even got fancy google doc spreadsheets, haha.
Well in that case. Awesome!
Happy for Prado. Sure looks like he (his agent) gave the D-Backs the hometown discount the Braves were looking for, though.
Still love the trade, but it’s tough to see the amount and realize that it was close to what the Braves were saying they offered.
I believe that the Braves did not want to sign Prado to an extension at even a $10 million / year average for 4 years (including this year).
They saw an opportunity that included some risk to obtain a potential MVP type player for under market value and at the same time obtain a serviceable 3rd baseman that is still young and should improve, as should Fransisco, over the next several years.
Even though Prado was one of my favorite Braves, this deal was too tempting to pass up when trying to build a World Series contender at the $100,000,000 to $110,000,000 level( my guess as to the next 3 years).
Even though CAC likes power over OBP and contact, it still worries me a little that at the present time there is not a proven .300 hitter / .370 – .380 OBP player in the lineup. Maybe Simmons will turn into that player.
It all boils down to risk / reward. In my opinion the Braves made the right choices. They chose more risk but increased the reward to a World Series contender / winner if their plans and decisions pan out.
Nobody as CAC ever said they prefer power over OBP, only power over contact. Many times power and OBP can go together when a power hitter is selective they will walk and strikeout more. Plus they are more likely to be intentionally walked. Look at Uggla, he fits your .370-.380 OBP as a power guy with poor contact skills. Ideally you want a younger Pujols who could do all of the above.
yeah, the ideal ‘simple’ stat is OBP + ISO
I think the Braves valued Prado just fine. In fact, I’m sure they loved him just as much as the rest of us do.
In the end, it boiled down to the fact that Towers insisted on getting Prado (a very good player) for Justin Upton, and Wren pulled the trigger. Towers then went to work and signed his new good player to a good extension.
Simple as that really, in my opinion. Really no need to read anymore into the matter.
@nick
I think there is *bit* more to it than that. By all accounts, extension talks had already broken down between Prado’s agent and Wren even before the possibility of him being included in a trade had been brought up. This was widely reported well before news of the trade broke. Secondly, it was stated that Towers had been assured that Prado was willing to extend at a reasonable rate even prior to the trade.
There is something more than “just” Towers demanding Prado. I’m sure the Braves would have preferred to have kept Prado, even if just for this year, but the inability to work out an extension certainly played into Wren being willing to deal him in the first place. That doesn’t mean an extension was completely off the table from the Braves, but it did look highly unlikely.
And there seemed to be multiple packages considered to get Upton. One centered on Graham, one centered on Teheran, and one on Prado.
@dmart I think Heyward and upton can be .290/.380/.480 hitters or better each of the next 3 seasons with a single MVP type season for both of them. Heyward dropped that type of season minus a little slugging his rookie year. All I know is the uptons should help especially Justin with those damn soft tossing lefties!
If I’m not mistaken, Chipper’s Dad coached Chris Johnson as a hitter. Apparently, Johnson still leaves a lot to be desired on defense, though.
We can afford a liability there with Simmons at SS.
Chris Johnson still puzzles me. An argument can be made that Francisco is a very small defensive upgrade over Chipper. It’s close. But Johnson seems clearly inferior with the glove. And at first blush he is not a good match to platoon against lefties. Francisco is not versatile in the field, so it would be nice if Johnson was.
Wouldn’t an average glove, a more versatile glove(2B? Corner OF?), more of a specialist hitting against lefties, be a better fit for this team? Maybe there is no such player out there.
Johnson’s l/r split in the majors is only based on 333 PAs versus lefties. I believe I read that his minors split is more even.
I appear to be the only person in Bravedom not sold on the whole Prado-Upton deal. This extension between Prado and AZ only strengthens my doubts. I mean, Prado was worth far more in 2012 than Upton (fWAR 5.9 vs 2.5). Obviously, age plays in Upton’s favor, but Prado is hardly an old fogey. Is Upton worth more than Prado? Maybe. $3-4 M per year more? I have my doubts.
Maybe I am too high on Prado, but I look at it like this. Could Upton hit .300 and 25 HR.? Maybe. Could Prado hit .325 and 15 HR? About as likely, in my view. Which is worth more? Debatable. Both would be great contributions. Furthermore, I see Prado as more proven, consistent, and flexible. I don’t know defensive stats as well, but I think Prado compares favorably.
My issue with the post above is the part that says, “he was simply demanding more than the Braves felt they could afford, with the looming extensions of Heyward, Medlen (both 2016) and possibly McCann.” How is $40 M over 4 years unaffordable, while $38.5 over three years is affordable?
I’m sure you will find flaws in my logic, and I will be happy if I am wrong.
Because you’re comparing Upton’s worst season to Prado’s best season. Upton put up a year where he was 4th in MVP voting at age 23. Martin Prado was in AA at age 23.
Also, assuming all other stats are equal, it is not even remotely debatable which is worth more, .300 and 25 HR is worth way more than .325 and 15 HR, all else equal.
Franklin,
I thought about it more, and you are very correct that a difference in 10 HR is worth way more than .025 BA. You are right that it is not remotely debatable. So you are starting to convince me. Apologies for not thinking that through more.
You also said, “Because you’re comparing Upton’s worst season to Prado’s best season.”
I realize that. I wasn’t trying to say that we should expect something like that in the future. Just saying that Prado’s best and Upton’s best might not be that different. I don’t see how Upton’s “ceiling” is so much higher than Prado’s, if Prado’s ceiling is 6 WAR or so. Could Upton have a 6.5 WAR season? Sure, he can do it. 9? I’m not sold on that. And I think we are kidding ourselves if we expect him to get 6 wins EVERY year.
If we look at four years’ worth of WAR:
2009-2012 fWAR (fangraphs was more favorable for Upton than baseball prospectus – which gives Prado a higher WAR over four years, so I’m being generous by using fWAR)
Prado: 3.2 4.3 1.6 5.9 TOTAL = 15
J Upton: 4.8 3.0 6.4 2.5 TOTAL = 16.7
To me, it is just not that big of a difference. Worth $3-4 M? Possibly. I hope you guys are right.
WAR is important, but you really have to look at the components to see why people prefer Justin Upton. Upton, over his career has been a better offensive player. Twice he has posted a .385 wOBA. Martin’s best is .358. Given their ages, it is likely Upton’s best years are in front of him. Martin may be able to repeat 2012 for the next year or two, but there is little room for growth. Upton on the other hand, is bigger, faster, has more power, a better arm, and has been better at staying on the field than Prado.
We have to also take into account that Upton wasn’t right for most of last year, and he was still a league average OF. We all gave Martin the benefit of the doubt last winter when he was coming off that staph infection–we should be willing to give Upton that same benefit.
I will admit that the part about “more proven, consistent, and flexible” is a stretch, but I standby the rest until convinced otherwise.
Upton’s worst season is liable to be Prado’s avg season, and his best season is liable to be 3 or 4 WAR high than Prado’s future best season.
The best you can expect from Prado at 3B is probably 4WAR
the best you can expect from Upton in LF is 8WAR. (whether or not he does this is another discussion)
I would guess that over the next 3 years we can expect to pull a minimum of 4 extra wins with Upton and a maximum of 10-12
that’s too good of a ceiling to pass up at only $3m more a year
30 WAR OUTFIELD
30 WAR OUTFIELD sounds like the name of a baseball based indie band!!! i love it!!!
back when CAC used to have tag lines at the top this could have been a good one. i really loved “fredi gonna fredi” and “my other car is a sacrifice bunt”.
CAC writers you should bring back the tag lines at the top of the page below the CAC logo
Hey Franklin,
I just wanted to say that I always enjoy reading your stuff, and you are one of the main reasons I check CAC on a daily basis.
Thanks.
I know that Prado’s metrics in LF last year were very good and Justin is moving from RF to LF, but would it be wrong to expect that Justin will play better defense?
I believe I’ve heard that he has a stronger arm, is faster and has more outfield experience.
great writing. i am really glad my CAC “ban” was lifted about a year ago. i said something that peter didn’t like, and a lot of people affiliated with this site probably know that peter had a temper! franklin, your writing is great, as peter’s was, but thank you for being a little more calm with the people that comment on here. peter banned so many people i don’t think he would even remember me, ha.