Justin Upton’s Thumb
February 1, 2013 at 7:00 am by Andrew Sisson under Atlanta Braves
I’m sure the majority of you are aware that Justin Upton played through a thumb injury in 2012. A lot of baseball writers and analysts across the industry have pegged it as a reason for his disappointing season. After going through and researching a little about the timeline of Upton’s season, I came across an interesting little tidbit that supplements and may help explain some of Upton’s 2012 numbers.
Upton initially hurt his thumb sliding into second base during the third game of the season last year. About a week later, he was diagnosed with a bone bruise. The team doctors advised Upton to go on the DL shortly after to let the thumb heal, but he refused. Upton felt that if he was able to play and swing a bat he was going to play. He felt him playing at a fraction of his healthy self was better than his replacement at 100%. It’s hard to argue.
We saw a very similar situation with a very similar player two seasons ago, Jason Heyward. There were a lot of parallels between the two. Heyward hurt his thumb sliding into third base, back in May 2010. He attempted to play through the same type of bone bruise for six weeks, but eventually succumb to the 15-day DL after he could no longer forcefully grip the bat. It was clear his swing and ability to drive the baseball was hampered.
While all situations are different, it’s usually a double-edged sword for players who have these types of small nagging injuries. There will always be people who will criticize a player for not being tough enough to play through a “minor” injury, as well as those who will criticize players for playing through it and not taking the time to get healthy. Every situation is different, but it is generally hard to force a player sit who is capable of producing at decent level even when hurt, especially young players who don’t want to (unfairly) take on a label of being “soft”. Rest for an extended period of time would seem to be the best and quickest way to a full recovery, however an internal competitive edge usually engulfs that. It is a tough challenge that players, especially star players, face.
Anyways, to get back on track, let’s get back to Upton and look at his monthly breakdown in 2012.
As you can see, Upton struggled from the get go. He continued to post below average numbers for the first four to five months of the season, with the exception of June. However, his June numbers were largely driven by a .415 BABIP. It also was his lowest raw power month ISO wise.
Then, towards the end of August, Upton was finally able to pick up the power numbers, which of course was an encouraging sign. Upton’s thumb felt comfortable enough where he was able to remove the padded brace on his thumb he had been playing with all season (I believe he didn’t wear it from August 25 on). After this, his numbers started to look like the 2011 Upton, especially in the power department. He hit 8 of his 17 home runs in those final 36 games, post-pad. While I think the endpoints can be justified, I will admit ~150 PA isn’t the greatest sample. There is comfort in knowing that his September numbers were backed by a .312 BABIP, suggesting his final month or so was not luck driven. I think it is worth at least pointing out that it was the only time all season he was able to play with the comfort of what appeared to be a healthy thumb. And wouldn’t you know it, his numbers appeared quite healthy too.
Like most, I think it’s fairly easy to tell I’m in the “as long as Upton’s thumb is healthy next season, his power numbers should bounce back” crowd. Hopefully the numbers give that statement some backing. The end of the season was encouraging and we can only hope there are no lingering effects heading into this season. It’s not that I want to blame all of last season on the thumb injury, but I think we can make a reasonable conclusion that it did play a large part to his power struggles (timing was also a little bit out of whack). For someone who has the bat speed and quick/strong wrists like Upton, any type of hand or wrist injury can quickly reduce those abilities. Look for the re-emergence of those skills, which should translate back in 2013 to a productive offensive season.
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I’ll be heading out of town for a couple of days, so I apologize in advance if I don’t get to your question or comment in a timely fashion.
Great read. Hopefully, Jup comes back from the injury in Heyward type fashion. On the plus side if i bruised my thumb I think I would be fine at work. I have two thumbs and only one space bar.
Depends WHICH thumb, I always hit space with my right hand, it’s take a while to get used to doing it lefty…
Think of it this way, if Upton had hit for the entire season like he hit in the final 36 games, he would have been on pace to hit 36 HR.
2011 Upton of an OPS close to .900 with 39 2B and 31 HR, yeah I’ll take that for the next 3 seasons…
What’s scary is he should only improve on those numbers considering his age. Upton and Heyward could be a better duo than Kemp and Ethier, and that’s saying something.
Many people would argue J Upton and Heyward are already better than Kemp and Either are are safe bets to be better considering age. Fangraphs 2013 WAR predictions Upton 5.2 + Heyward 6.1 = 11.3. Kemp 5.4 + Either 2.8 = 8.2. That is an expected 3 WAR difference.
You know with this as a context, it makes me wonder even more why Arizona would ever want to trade this guy.
Not gritty enough.
Perfect time to move him. Contract is starting to get up there money wise. They had a surplus of outfielders. Even with the trade they’re going to be a contender for a playoff spot.
Yeah… as I understand it, ‘Zona’s GM is the type that like his players to get down and dirty with their play. Not that Upton won’t do it, but it seems like he will back off on a ball more quickly rather than crashing into a wall or diving into the ground.
Basically made a swap for Prado an excellent choice in his mind.
I hear you guys and heard the statements coming out of PHX. It just strikes me as odd that on the one hand they would say he’s not “gritty” enough … but we hear that Upton played through an injury (and a difficult one at that for a hitter).
It’s more of a style of play. Think how guys like Prado and Cody Ross play the game. Neither are as athletic as Upton but they’re always covered in dirt before the game starts, flying all over the place. Upton is more smooth in his play because he’s just a better athlete and doesn’t have to destroy himself on every play making him useless in 10 years (see: Andruw Jones).
Well, and maybe not just long term. I went to the article about Upton’s injury, and DBacks fans were bemoaning their poor luck with injuries. While injuries are part of the game, diving and running into walls and all that increase the probability. While that kind of play is sometimes necessary, if you can make the play without doing it, I’m not sure of the virtue of playing that way when it’s not necessary.
Exactly. It’s like Arizona hates when you’re TOO good. If you make things look easy, then you should just get a late jump and make it look hard? It’s really tough to understand what they’re doing over there. They have a pretty decent team, and I’m sure they’ll push the Dodgers and Giants in the West, but I just can’t see a scenario where Justin Upton shouldn’t be in your plans for as long as he’ll stay around.
AJ wasn’t useless in 10 years, he just wasn’t 19 when he hit the majors.
Andruw was 19 when he debuted for the Braves. He began his steep decline in his 11th season.
Wait. Is the claim that Andruw was a gritty player who shortened his (useful) career with all those dives? As I remember, the announcers on TBS always praised his effortless pursuit of the ball, and he was even knocked by some fans for seeming not to care (although that was probably more about the smiling after striking out). If anything, Andruw was an example of both the athletic, graceful guy AND the gritty player who wasn’t afraid to dive if his speed didn’t get him there in time. In the end, my guess is that his body type just wasn’t suited for playing at that level into his 30s.
Well, I’d say Andruw’s decline was more precipitated by ego and lack of discipline than physical breakdown, at least early on. He didn’t stay as fit as he could have, which had an impact on both his defense and his offense and probably helped increase the physical wear and tear he endured. But a big part of his offensive struggles was that his approach at the plate degenerated over time.
@ vivabeta “30 WAR OUTFIELD”
i posted this as a reply to on the previous thread after this one at been put up, but i wanted people to see it
30 WAR OUTFIELD sounds like the name of a baseball based indie band!!! i love it!!!
back when CAC used to have tag lines at the top this could have been a good one. i really loved “fredi gonna fredi” and “my other car is a sacrifice bunt”.
CAC writers you should bring back the tag lines at the top of the page below the CAC logo
I think the new layout is AIR TIGHT. No changes necessary.
(joke)
What was the other good one? “Chipper Jones is not dead” I think.
One thing to consider is Uptons WAR may rise next year by playing LF. Replacement level lf is weaker than rf.
If I’m not mistaken I believe it goes
C –> SS –> 2b –> CF –> 3b –> RF –> LF –> 1b –> DH
So if he perfrom exactly as he did last year he would finish with a higher WAR.
Maybe I have that backwords with LF and RF. Any clarification from someone with better knowledge.
I think this clears it up…
Here are the full FanGraphs positional adjustments used in WAR:
Catcher: +12.5 runs (all are per 162 defensive games)
First Base: -12.5 runs
Second Base: +2.5 runs
Third Base: +2.5 runs
Shortstop: +7.5 runs
Left Field: -7.5 runs
Center Field: +2.5 runs
Right Field: -7.5 runs
Designated Hitter: -17.5 runs
Does that mean it starts out with that number and how their season progresses it adds too or subtracts from…?
That’s the factor that they use so that you can compare players at different positions.
I guess a simple way to figure it is that each game they play at the position, they accrue 1/162ths of it. (And because I know I might be blasted for it, im sure its not that easy, just trying to make it easier to understand for people that know even less)
Maybe someone into the higher level math can explain it better.
C –> SS –> 2B/CF/3B –> RF/LF –> 1B –> DH
There’s the “corrected” version.
Upward.
I don’t know if the idea is already out there, but that’s my suggestion for the outfield’s nickname. It’s reminiscent of O’Ventbrel and has a positive connotation. It’s particularly apt for Heyward and the younger Upton, since we all think they’ll get better over the next few years. One could make an adjustment to acknowledge that there are two Uptons and go with the punnier Double Upward, but I like the simpler version.
On the issue of Justin’s thumb and likely performance going forward, his late-season performance and career ISO of .198 are consistent and give us a good reason not to worry about his slow start in 2012.
I just don’t understand the “play through it” mentality all the time. I understand that players get banged up over the course of a season and will have to play through some injuries over the course of a season. And I can understand letting a player play through an injury that would require months to recover from if they can. But this sounds like something that could’ve been helped with a little rest. And I have a hard time believing even a backup for 2 weeks and 140 games of a healthy Upton wouldn’t be better than what they got out of Upton last season.
After watching Heyward struggle when he was trying to play through it, I say rest and mash it the rest of the year.
Where Upton might get a WAR boost is in comparative defense. His glove will reflect more value there, as that tends to be a place you stick the guys like Willingham , Nelson Cruz, Carlos Quentin. Big oafs who have a decent bat and hands of stone.
Why hasn’t Scott Rolen being talked about for third? I know that he is 38 and has had two injury filled years, but he is a veteran and most likely still better defensively than either of our options at third.
because any defensive ability over Juan and Johnson he has will be mitigated by the fact that he will hit about seven.
Yes, that’s his OPS, seven
We could’ve used him in some capacity
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/02/kevin-millwood-to-retire.html
Wonder if he wanted more than the Braves were ready to pony up.