Braves Positional Outlook – Bullpen
February 5, 2013 at 2:12 pm by Mark Smith under Atlanta Braves
For the past few seasons, the Braves have maintained one of the best bullpens in baseball, and over the past two seasons, they’ve been a truly elite bullpen thanks to Craig Kimbrel, Eric O’Flaherty, and the merry band of other very capable relievers. The Braves return all the key cogs from those bullpens (and added Jordan Walden), and they’ll do it for just a little over $8 million. Bullpens don’t pitch enough innings to accumulate large amounts of positive value – Kimbrel was the best reliever in baseball and accumulated about 3-4 wins of value – but they can crush a team. Keeping the cost of a bullpen down is essential as the money can go to other areas of the team with higher ceilings of contribution and less volatility, but if the bullpen is terrible, it can cripple a team.
Bullpen
It’s hard not to love the Braves bullpen heading into 2013. Kimbrel is the best reliever in baseball. O’Flaherty, Venters, and Walden are all very good relievers, though EOF is the most stable of the three. Cristhian Martinez (multiple innings, excellent peripherals) and Luis Avilan (very impressive debut, tough on lefties, can throw multiple innings) add significant value, though they may not be quite as good as the others. All of these relievers, with the notable exception of EOF, are under control for at least the next three seasons. And their combined age is under 27.
One of the battles in Spring Training will be for the last spot in this vaunted bullpen. As of right now, I have Anthony Varvaro penciled in because he’s out of options, but Cory Gearrin, David Carpenter, David Hale (and I suppose Cory Rasmus) are other possibilities already on the 40-man roster. I’ll get into specifics about this battle later in the week, but for now, just know that the Braves have solid options and don’t need to spend money on another Chad Durbin-type.
Joining the losers of this battle in the minors will be several solid potential bullpen pieces. Hale may start the year in the rotation, but he’s probably a reliever long-term. Mark Lamm, Billy Bullock, and Cory Rasmus all have strong arms, but they all have serious to extreme control problems. Chris Jones (LOOGY), Andrew Russell (ROOGY), and Jose Lugo (multiple innings) all have their uses as well. A little farther down, Juan Jaime gets the headlines because of a triple-digit fastball, but he’ll need to refine his curveball and control to reach his closer-high ceiling. The rest of the bolded prospects are likely to be middle relievers at best, but those are still valuable, if for nothing else than to prevent the team from having to spend significant cash on stabilizing this part of the team. My favorites of the bunch are Nathan Hyatt, Carlos Perez, and Patrick Scoggin.
There are two players I’d like to discuss a little further – Daniel Rodriguez and JR Graham. I should have mentioned Daniel Rodriguez in the piece on the rotation, but I chose not to because I’d be surprised if that’s where he ended up long-term. He’s already 28, and if he was so good, he probably would have been signed before he won three straight strikeout titles in the Mexican League. Now, I don’t mean this to say Rodriguez can’t pitch. He can throw in the low-90s with some sink and also has a slider and change-up, but if he’s in the rotation at some point in the year, it’s because Julio Teheran busted and/or someone else got hurt. There’s some Jorge Campillo-surprise possibility here because the Braves always seemingly find those guys, but it’s not something I’d bet on. If he pitches out of the bullpen, he’s a nice lefty option that will make letting EOF go a little easier.
Moving on to Graham, this might not be a popular thing to say, but there’s still a significant chance he ends up in the bullpen. His fastball and slider are electric, but his change-up still lags behind. Graham is still young, and there’s reason to believe the change can improve. But it’s not there yet, and Graham and his high-90s fastball have a closer-type ceiling out of the bullpen. Consider this (though this is admittedly not very likely) – Graham’s appearance as a late-inning option could allow the Braves to trade Kimbrel before he begins making big money and while he retains a ton of value (enough to grab a 3B and/or SP prospect). For 2013, Graham will likely pitch out of the rotation in Gwinnett, and by the end of the year, we’ll have a better idea of what Graham’s role will be.
Overall
The Braves continue to have one of the best bullpens in baseball, and the addition of Jordan Walden should only improve the situation. With the Braves recent success of finding arms in the later rounds of the draft and on the waiver wire, there’s no reason to believe that the immediate future of that bullpen is in jeopardy. Then again, relievers (and thus bullpens) are fickle beings and victims of attrition, injury, and volatility in performance.
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“All of these relievers, with the notable exception of EOF, are under control for at least the next three seasons. And their combined age is under 27.” (emphasis added)
Whoa. Gives a whole new (and implausible) meaning to the term “Baby Braves.”
It’s perfect – young, cheap, and good.
He was being sarcastic because the “combined” age of three guys being under 27 means they are all like 8 or 9 year olds. I believe you meant the “average” age is under 27 years old not combined.
#facepalm
To be fair, Kimbrel looks like he’s a giant 9 year old.
Not this year since I see the Braves as legit Series contenders this year but sometime in the next two years I would be interested to see what the Braves could get in trade for Kimbrel. I would imagine they could get a return well beyond his actual value
It’s a little late this year (unless they fall flat on their face), but it’s something that should be considered.
Great Article! You have to see the value in a solid bullpen, but sometimes you have to part ways with the talent as well to gain some value. Finding consistency in a bullpen pitcher is very hard to find, so I think it’s pretty low-risk to trade a name like Kimbrel if you get the value back.
It is ludicrous to even consider trading Kimbrel. If he has another great season, I would sign him to an extension ASAP. Having a great closer and bullpen is very important. Far more important than any number some sabremetric can produce.
Kimbrel is the best closer in baseball, bar none. He’s one of the best closers I’ve ever watched in the modern era, and I’ve been watching baseball for 22 years. He’s easily the best I’ve seen in a Braves uniform with no disrespect to Wholers or Smoltz. The dude has nearly unhittable pitches. He put up historic never before seen numbers last year. If that continues, there’s no reason to trade him. At all. Sign him before he becomes unaffordable.
Unless San Diego says here, take Chase Headly and some 2B and C prospects, I don’t even entertain that notion. It would have to take something insane that would never happen like that for me to even remotely think about ever moving Craig Kimbrel, and even then I don’t think I would unless there was clearly someone waiting in the wings.
Even though Graham is, his development should not be rushed. I want to see a flamethrower in the rotation, and I know that’s where he wants to wind up.
I guarantee there would be more than six or seven games we would have lost without Craig on the mound in the ninth if someone like Venters was the closer.
Our bullpen looks great and I think based on last year Cory Gearrin should get the last BP spot.
Martinez is a good long term man/inning eater if we’re getting blown out, Venters should remain solid and maybe regain his 2010-2011 form. EOF is simply the best set up man in baseball.
Avilan was fantastic last year and could be his heir to the set up throne.
Walden sounds like he’s good if his control is under… control.
Our bullpen is legitimate championship caliber. We just have to hope that the rest of the team can match it.
I didn’t say trade Kimbrel for a bag of peanuts.
There are teams that pay closers more than $10mil a year, simply because of how many saves they record. Craig Kimbrel is absolutely absurd, and everyone here (and across baseball) would have to agree. But if someone who throws 60 innings per year could bring in a player that would throw 200 a year, or a position player that would see 600 PA, that just makes too much sense. Once Kimbrel gets to his second and third years of arbitration, he will start to command a lot of money. A mid-market team cannot afford to pay big money for 60 innings.
We have become a bit spoiled after watching Kimbrel. A closer’s job is to record the last outs of the game, not necessarily strike out every batter before you while making the guy who was supposed to hit fourth in the inning cower in fear. He kind of provides ‘excess value’ in terms of closing games. We have very effective (and cost effective) players in the system that are capable of recording outs at a high rate.
Would replacing Kimbrel with EOF or Walden result in the Braves losing a game, or two, or even three over a season? Probably. But a top line 3B or SP will easily provide that and then some over the course of a season.
We’re all attached to Kimbrel. He’s great. But we are not the Yankees, and it is an idea that must be explored, at the very least. I hope Kimbrel is a Brave for life, because that would mean we are paying him a reasonable amount. But if he starts to command lots of money, we just can’t do it.
Agreed on most of this. Kimbrel is amazing and the best reliever in the game. But it doesn’t mean the Braves can afford him or should try to. Closers (pitchers in general) are injury risks, and while I’m not complaining about his delivery or anything, throwing 97 mph probably doesn’t help. If the Braves could turn him into some very good younger players, they should at least consider it.
Maybe I’ll do a post on this next week.
Kimbrel does have a fairly violent delivery too. He may never have health problems, but I think eventually down the line something is going to give.
I believe Billy Bullock was suspended for 50 games to start the season.
He was, but he still remains a part of the long-term outlook.
Nice piece about the value of the bullpen and the importance of keeping the cost down. How much can the Braves be expected to pay the bullpen in 2014-15 as numerous players (including Kimbrel) reach arbitration eligibility? What do you think Kimbrel and Venters might make in 2014? I assume this means re-signing EOF is highly unlikely?
It could escalate quickly because Kimbrel might break some arb records for closers, and Venters, Martinez, and Walden will be in arbitration as well. Projected (these are just preliminary), I have about $11-12M for 2014 and $15-18M for 2015.
Kimbrel could very well command $15-20 million/yr. Your closer cant be your most expensive player, by several million dollars.
He won’t command that in arbitration, that’s for sure.
sure, I don’t think we’re *extremely* worried about what he’ll get in arbitration. It’s the whole “sign to an extension” thing.
Craig isn’t the one you wanna worry about. He walks around with a Wal-Mart backpack and luggage and the rest of the team makes fun of him for it. He’s a simple guy. All Craig cares about is hunting and family. He’s also been a die-hard Braves fan since he was a kid. He’s from Huntsville so he’s pretty much local. Money has never been a big thing for him. Shoot, knowing him he’ll probably just live off the interest of any “big” contract he gets. His wife is really the only one that would be big on the big city life. She loves New York, so that’s a possibility. Either way, I’m about 90% sure that he’ll stay in Atlanta. And yes, I know him personally.
I’ve never heard of anyone taking 5-10 million/year when they could get 15-20/ year because they like to shop at Walmart and aren’t extremely materialistic. He is still doing a “job” and knows what others are getting for similar rolls. Especially for a reliever when they can have a career ending injury at almost any time.
There’s no reason to doubt what you are saying at all WRT Kimbrell’s preferences, but one thing to consider is how much other teams are willing to pay their veteran closers and BP players. That in itself creates a market for Kimbrell in the case of mid-market teams like the Braves.
If Brandon League can get $22.5MM over three years (with incentives that could take him to $33.5MM), how much is Kimbrell worth on the open market?
At some point, other teams will come calling and depending on the offers, the Braves will have a decision to make.
Sorry, the fan in me went a little nuts.
Logically, I agree with you guys in the sense that a closer shouldn’t be making 15-20 million, I would hope Kimbrel wouldn’t ask for that. But at the same time, he’s so invaluable, that neither the fan side nor the rational side of me ever wants to see him go for anything. It has to be for a stud and at least three prospects.
Well, a stud and three prospects isn’t likely either. He’s a closer; he throws about 70 innings per year. He’s arguably the best in history at throwing those 70 innings, but it’s just impossible to create MVP-level value in that kind of playing time. Other teams are aware of this, and will offer accordingly.
“don’t need to spend money on another Chad Durbin-type.”
But…but….what about Freddie’s ever burning need for a veteran presence!?!?!?
(Sorry, I had to)
ilove our outfeild with the uptons and jason heyward and reed johnson and firstbase with fredie freeman and ernsto
mejia and chris johnson juan franciso and the bullpen
and rotation
well then….
I would not be shocked at all if Kimbrel is traded next offseason. Yes, he is the best closer in baseball, but the actual drop off from him to Walden or Venters in 2014 would not be very steep when you consider the return he may command in a trade.
When Rivera retires after this season, the Yanks will be tripping over themselves to acquire the best closer in the game. If the Yanks get involved, the BoSox anf Dodgers will jump in the mix. Once the Dodgers jump in, the Angels will follow. If the Angels get in it, the Rangers will not be far behind. Those large market teams will then bid against each other and drive the trade price through the roof.
If Wren can convert Kimbrel into an elite position prospect already in the upper levels of the minors, I think he would be wise to do so. If not, then hold onto him for 2014.
So with all this relief pitching depth maybe the 2013 draft should tilt toward position players or pitchers likely to remain starters.
I think teams always prioritize SP prospects over RP prospects. The problem is that it’s hard to stick at SP, so guys with a couple quality pitches end up sliding to the pen. I think the Braves’ recent glut of high-quality, cost-controlled relievers reflects both their success at developing pitchers and the difficulty of keeping prospects in the rotation.
This statement was buried at the end of a long post about how Kimbrel is a simple country boy who is sure to stay in Atlanta for less money than he could make in New York….
“His wife is really the only one that would be big on the big city life. She loves New York, so that’s a possibility.”
Gee, do you think that might be a factor?
It is good to know that Kimbrel is happy where he is, and I hope he is here for a long time, but there might come a time when some team makes us an offer we can’t refuse.
“Unless San Diego says here, take Chase Headly and some 2B and C prospects, I don’t even entertain that notion.”
That’s the thing about Kimbrel, he is the kind of player who could attract that sort of ridiculous trade. An all-star third baseman is more valuable than any closer, even the best closer in the history of the galaxy, which Kimbrel may turn out to be.
If Kimbrel has a season in 2013 like he had last year, I think the Braves should make a fair offer at a multiple-year deal that would lock him up through about 2018. You don’t really want to gamble longer than that on a closer’s arm holding up.
If Kimbrel is willing to give us the “hometown discount” and sign up for less than he could make elsewhere, great. If not, we probably need to look at trading him.
If we cannot keep an all-star third baseman (Prado was a previous all-star and I believe could be one at third) for ~$10/year, I don’t see the Braves shelling out even 8-9 million (estimated “home town discount”) a year on an extension for the closer.
There is a slight difference in age. Kimbrel is 24 this season, and Prado is 29. Kimbrel will need $8-9M in 2 years, so he’d only be 26-27.
I understand the need to at least consider the possibility of “having” to trade Kimbrel but what possition(s) will he be traded for? 3rd base is he only longterm spot left to fill and we’re set in almost every other position. Sure the farm system may be a little weak with position players but that’s because we have called up all the studs we had down there (ie. B-Mac, J-Hey, Freeman, Medlen etc.) The Braves usually do a very good job drafting and bringing guys along in the system (see Martin Prado)and I think we have a few years to groom some guys. Bottom line, Kimbrel is a must have for the Braves! There hasn’t been much more that has frustrated me about my Braves pre Smoltzie and post Smoltzie than the lack of a dominent closer. Hopefully those days are gone for a loooooooong time!
If Up, Up and J-Hey plays to their potential, B-Mac is the B-Mac we know him to be, Ugg’s finally gets off his arse and the Free-man continues his growth, we’ll have all the offense we need and would not need an allstart 3 baseman. Just a guy servicable at the place that place great D. We can’t have all-stars at ever position. Like someone mentioned earlier, we aren’t the stankees…lol
We also cannot expect that every player you mentioned will perform at the top of their potential. In fact, it’s extremely unlikely. So in that case, having a good 3B would be beneficial.
Unless we can work out a semi-favorable extension, trading Craig seems inevitable within 3 or so years. I mean, Rafael Soriano is making 14 mil a year. We simply can’t afford that money for a closer, I don’t care how good he is. In this day of overvaluing elite bullpen arms, we could conceivably get two higher level prospects for Craig, which would be an offer we couldn’t refuse.
yo everybody calm down on the trading craig kimbrel idea! because we ain’t going to get a miguel cabrea to play 3rd base for a closer so it ain’t worth trading him! also why in the hell would u trade the best closer in baseball! the guy is only in year 3 and he was the best closer his rookie year and 2nd year in the league he has like another 10 years left in his career! i say lock him up for life! 3 years from now when he becomes a free agent lock him up for the next 7 years so that way hey if we have to pay him 60 million for 7 years oh well atleast we can say we finally retained and kept a pitcher from his rookie year all the way till he retires! the last person we did that with was smoltz! and i pretty much think that was the only pitcher we did that with from the 80′s till now! so guess what we ain’t trading the best pitcher in baseball and if he don’t get hurt and mess up his arm or fall apart i see him as the best closing [itcher in baseball history because the guy is like 23 years old so that means he can pitch for like 17 years in his career and basically blow every record that dennis eckersley ever had so why we going to trade a potential hall of famer and i think when it’s all said and done he will be in the hall of fame!
See, the problem here is just thinking we can lock him up for 7/60. Market value when Kimbrel hits free agency will be over 15 mil a year. You just don’t pay that for 60 innings. Yea, I think he’ll wind up being the best closer ever if he stays healthy, but there are problems with being stuck in the mid-market. These problems likely include having to trade Kimbrel.
uh, you might have to double that 60 million if you want to lock Kimbrel up for 7 years.
I think that’s a little too much the other way .
If he makes $28m between 2014 and 2017, then 4 years at $18m per that’s 7 years $100m at market price. If you extend him after next season, I bet you could get 7 years $80m
not that I think this would be a wise idea really though.
when I say between 14-17 I am not including the 2017 season obviously.
it was a bit difficult to parse out exactly what he meant, but I was assuming he meant 7 years after the team control years, since that contract was supposedly to make him ‘a brave for life’.
Smoltz pitched for the Red Sox and Cardinals
If I had to estimate Kimbrels remaining money he will get over the next seasons:(ultra conservative)
2014:$5,500,000
2015: $7,500,000
2016:$9,500,000
that’s $22.5m for 3 years, IMO, to extend him until after the 2018 season would require and additional $20-$25 mill making it a 5 year $42m-$48m deal. Which is probably just barely worth it.
If I am wrong and he gets $6m+ in 2014, then look for $8.5-$9m in 2015 and $11-$12m in 2016 and bye bye Kimbrel after the 2015 season.
Keith law update**
He has Teheran at 28 on his top 100 and graham at 94. That’s it. He cites Teheran as having a plus fastball/change combo but without that third pitch to keep hitters off balance it has made him homer prone. If he can develop a solid curve or slider he will live up to his potential. His analysis on graham is in line with yours in the podcast as far as ceiling/development and worst case high leverage bullpen arm. (Gave him a 80 scale fastball)
I know that it is just Keith Law’s opinion but he has the Braves with just two top level prospects in his first 110 highly rated prospects (he added an additional 10 players that just barely missed his top 100)
Both of the Braves cited players Tehren at 28 and Graham at 94 are pitchers. No additional pitchers and no positional players at all
Sure there will be some surprises but also not every one of the top 100 will make it either. It appears that even though the Braves lineup is pretty set for the next three years that they have to really have some good drafts this year and next to replenish the farm.
Also you never know whom among the current Braves 25 man roster will not live up to their potential, be injury prone, etc.. It seems that the Braves are really walking a tight rope in regard to personnel.
They have taken some chances to have a highly competitive team, and I applaud that tactic but the Braves need a lot of things to go right to sustain this effort over the next three years.
That is the way it is designed. Our minor league depth has already translated into MLB talent. Our rotation and position players are under team control for at least 3 years (I think Uggla might just have 2 years left). We don’t expect to have many highly rated prospects. If Freeman, Heyward, Simmons, and Minor were blocked by better options, they would all be on the list. There are certainly other 22-23 year olds all over the list. Our current upside is still in the lower levels of the minors, and if Salcedo/Lipka/Bethancourt/can put it together, they will be big risers as they will have results to pair with their tools. Alex Wood and Lucas Sims are set to rise, but they are both extremely young. The importance of our minor league depth will become important in 3 years. For now, there are viable options if people struggle/get hurt. Gilmartin/Graham could step in and probably be replacement level, at worst. Don’t forget, Simmons was not very talked about last season, but put it together and performed well. There are always surprises.
That’s my point exactly. Our farm system has been depleted because the studs we called up the last few years are producing in the bigs. There will be struggles along the way with those young guys and one or two of them may not maintain or ever reach that potential (see Frenchy). All you can do is to continue to draft well and develope the guys in the system. The team has done a stella job at that over the years and I don’t see why that would change. Especially with Bobby Cox becoming involved in player developement.
All this talk about trading Kimbrel before his stock gets to high is extremely premature. We’ll cross that bridge when we get there. Until then, i’ll enjoy finally having a closer since Smolzie that I feel confindent is saying the game is OVER when he comes into the game.
Just out of curiousity, where did Law rank the Braves’s farm system this time around?
KLaw had the Braves system at #20.
“20. Atlanta Braves
They actually didn’t give up that much in the Upton trade, but they’ve drafted so poorly the past few years that it’s really hurt the system. The 2010 draft probably won’t produce much of anything besides Andrelton Simmons (no longer eligible for the list), 2011 looks just slightly better right now and 2009 is likely to end up producing Mike Minor and nothing else. They’re not lower because they’ve made good trades and found value in non-traditional ways, but you can’t get this little value from the draft for long without feeling it.”
Let’s all just relax a little bit and pump the brakes on trading Kimbrel.
Nobody knows what is going to happen with anything…for all anyone knows, the Braves could win the World Series this year and Liberty Media decides to sell the Braves and then all bets are off.
I think we can all agree that it might be a wise option to consider trading Kimbrel IF he continues to have the success he has had; we have someone who can step in for him; he becomes unaffordable; someone makes us an offer we cannot refuse; and so on…but until then, lets just look forward to 2013!
What about Robert Fish? Didn’t see him anywhere in this article.
The last spot should go to Cory Gearrin because you always need a groundball guy who can get you a double play in the 6th-7th. I don’t see anything particularly notable about Anthony Varvaro, not to hand him an active roster spot just because he’s out of options. Gearrin has shown some promise and keeps the ball on the ground.
Can’t believe I’m even addressing this but Craig Kimbrel will not be traded. It’s an absurd notion. The Braves have a record of holding on to exceptional players (Chipper Jones, Smoltz, Glavine) thru their primes. Kimbrel is the best closer in the game 2 years into his big league career, and only injury standing in his way to being that way for years. You can’t trade a guy because you are afraid he might get hurt. That’s asinine. A GM who thinks that way will be out of the league in short order and never get a whiff again. That aside, it totally ignores the financial landscape that is upcoming for the Braves. Brian McCann isn’t likely to be resigned if he doesn’t return to form and will price himself out of Atlanta if he does. Tim Hudson can’t go on forever and will either retire, sign elsewhere or take a huge paycut to stay. The payroll will drop by $21m with those two gone alone. Aside from Uggla & the Uptons, no one else is making any significant money (Heyward, Freeman, Simmons, Medlen, Beachy, Minor, Venters, Kimbrel). So the Braves will have something like $50million to buy out some arbitration/FA years on these young guys. And the starting rotation will only get cheaper in the next couple years as Hudson/Maholm depart and Gilmartin and Graham take their place.
I just see Kimbrel/Heyward as the first two guys who’ll get an offer to a long term deal.