Spring Training Battles
February 6, 2013 at 3:29 pm by Mark Smith under Atlanta Braves
I hate Spring Training. Yeah, yeah, there’s baseball when there hasn’t been for months, but it’s wrought with dangers. The immediate concern is injury. Avoiding injury is essentially why Spring Training exists – in order to build up strength, stamina, etc. – but all I do during ST games is worry they’ll get hurt in an ultimately meaningless game. The other concern is the small sample size and using those stats to determine anything. For instance, Michael Bourn led the team with 79 AB (84 PA) last ST, which is like 1/8 of a season, and some of those PA are against pitchers getting their work in, messing with new pitches, and going back to the minors in another week. The sample size just isn’t large enough to indicate whether something is actually happening or not. And finally, the games just don’t count. Right or wrong, I always worry that the players “use up” some of their good moments, though that doesn’t really make sense.
But Spring Training is a necessary evil. It does allow for players to work into “game shape” and for pitchers to build innings and arm strength. And whether the sample sizes allow it or not, there are positions that are won and lost in Spring Training, and Spring Training is all we have to decide in some cases. These are the ones Braves officials have to decide in the coming weeks.
Starting Third Baseman
The Favorites: Juan Francisco and Chris Johnson are the two vying for the spot, and I’d say that neither has much of a leg up on the other. Francisco is the younger, higher upside player that has significant collapse risk while Johnson is what he is, which is probably a second-division regular (for those curious as to what “second-division regular” means, it means a player worth 1-2 wins a season, which is between an average regular and a good bench bat; usually only bad, or “second-division”, teams will employ them as starters). Johnson is also making quite a bit more money, but I don’t expect that will play much into the decision as it’s a sunk cost and not a big one at that. Look for them to switch starting/backing up early on with Francisco even getting some time against lefties to see if he’s improved. To be honest, I wouldn’t be surprised if either won or if a platoon was installed.
The Dark Horse: Joe Leonard will likely open the season in AAA Gwinnett, but he might be better defensively than Johnson or Francisco. The problem, of course, is that Leonard isn’t a particularly good hitter, hitting .257/.324/.393 for his career in the minors, and he’s not likely to get a whole lot better by April, though I suppose there’s some untapped power there. Something drastic would have to happen for Leonard to win the spot.
Fifth Spot in the Rotation
The Favorite: After all the off-season talk and the lack of a signed veteran to act as competition, Julio Teheran is the man unless he falls on his face again.
The Contenders: Sean Gilmartin and JR Graham are likely next up on the prospect stage, and it would make sense for them to start the season in AAA. A strong Spring performance by either along with a collapse by Teheran could see one of these prospects turn into rookies. Gilmartin would be the most likely considering he’s a little ahead on the development curve, and Graham really should spend some time working on his change-up in AAA.
The Dark Horse: Daniel Rodriguez was signed late last season out of the Mexican League. With a sinker/slider combo from the left side, Rodriguez could finagle himself into a rotation spot, but it would probably take an emergency situation – Teheran collapse, neither prospect pitching well, and an injury to an existing member of the rotation – for him to get there.
Backup Catcher
The Contenders: Only three catchers have a place on the 40-man roster spot – Christian Bethancourt, Gerald Laird, and Brian McCann. McCann could be back by Opening Day (in theory) to push Laird into this spot, but injuries rarely heal faster than anticipated with no setbacks. Shoulders are no fun, so I’d expect McCann back no earlier than a few weeks, if not a month, into the season (closer to the original diagnosis). That leaves Bethancourt as the only 40-man guy, but that was more of a Rule 5 protection maneuver than “he’s ready for The Show”. The other possibilities are Matt Pagnozzi, Matt Kennelly, Shawn McGill, and Evan Gattis. All of them have their peccadilloes, though – the first three probably won’t hit much and Gattis probably can’t catch enough. With only 37 players on the 40-man, the Braves can move one of these guys on. Pagnozzi is probably the favorite because he’s done it before, but I wouldn’t be surprised if one of the others made it. They can fake it back there for a few weeks.
Last Spot on the Bench
The Contenders: With four spots taken on the bench by whoever wins the catcher competition, whoever loses the third base competition, Paul Janish, and Reed Johnson, there remains one spot on the bench. The most likely guys for the spot are Ernesto Mejia, Ramiro Pena, and Tyler Pastornicky. Mejia’s strength is lefty mashing, but while that’s helpful off the bench, his ability to only play first isn’t. Pena is a worse version of Paul Janish (if you can believe it), and there’s not really anything unique that he brings to the table. Pastronicky is a little bit better of a hitter and has some potential to be better than what he’s shown (he just turned 23 in December), and he has some defensive versatility. I’ll knock Pena out of the running unless he somehow hits, which leaves us with Mejia and Pastornicky. If the Braves want pop off the bench, Mejia’s your guy, but if they want a little defensive versatility, Pastornicky could be it. Mejia seems to give them something they don’t already have (power) while Pastornicky would be overlapping a few things the Braves already have with his defensive versatility.
(Author’s note: Someone in the comments mentioned Blake DeWitt. I did, indeed, forget about him. He adds some defensive versatility, but his bat isn’t very good, though better than the other utility infielders. DeWitt has a reverse platoon split (though only 200 PA against lefties) and isn’t very good against RHP, and he would also have to be added to the 40-man, which wouldn’t be that difficult. With the last spot on the bench, I’m still guessing that the Braves go with a hitter as the defensive replacements are already in place. Janish, however, did have shoulder surgery early in the off-season, so if he’s not ready by Opening Day, Pena likely moves in with his ability to play SS and the other positions and still leaves the open bench spot.)
The Dark Horses: Jose Constanza and Jordan Schafer lurk as other potential candidates. While they could both be weapons off the bench as pinch-runners, Reed Johnson takes away the need for their defensive contributions. I don’t really see what either would offer that the Braves really need other than a lefty bat off the bench, but neither of them are particularly adept (or at all adept) at hitting.
Last Spot in the Bullpen
The Favorite: Six spots are likely taken in the bullpen by Craig Kimbrel, Eric O’Flaherty, Jordan Walden, Jonny Venters, Cristhian Martinez, and Luis Avilan, which means there’s one left. I can’t find the information to be sure, but I believe Anthony Varvaro is out of options. Considering he’s a decent reliever that would be claimed on waivers, it makes sense to keep him.
The Contenders: We are talking about the last spot in the bullpen, however, so if one pitcher demonstrates that he’s the best option, it’s not really a big deal to let Varvaro go. The other serious options are Cory Gearrin and David Carpenter. Carpenter was superficially great in 2011 (2.93 ERA), but his peripherals and fly ball rate reveal a pitcher who isn’t as talented, though not as bad as 2012 (8.07 ERA) suggested. Gearrin has much better peripherals than either Carpenter or Varvaro (who are pretty similar as far as production) as he gets some swings-and-misses as well as a lot of ground balls, but he’s basically useless against lefties. With the lefties already in the bullpen able to get both sides of the plate out and Martinez and Avilan able to pitch multiple innings, the Braves have room for a specialty reliever (ROOGY and ground balls). I’m just not sure it’s worth ditching Varvaro.
The Dark Horses: Also on the 40-man are Juan Jaime, David Hale, and Cory Rasmus. Hale could certainly be an interesting addition with a higher ceiling than the people we’ve mentioned, but again, I’m not sure that’s worth ditching Varvaro unless Hale blows people away. Rasmus throws hard and will probably be in AAA to start the season, but his walk rate in the minors is over 4 and has gone up over the past few seasons as he’s progressed up the ladder. Jaime is another interesting name, but he hasn’t pitched in AA yet, needs to improve his control, and find a breaking ball.
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Do you think Gattis is a contender for the last bench spot even if he loses the battle to be the backup catcher?
Good question. He could in the mold of Ernesto Mejia with more defensive utility (marginally), but if so, he could probably use more seasoning.
Is Janish out of options? To me, the bench profiles out much better with Pastornicky taking Janish’s spot then the battle for the 5th bench spot being between Meija, Constanza, and Schaefer (or possibly adding someone from outside of the organization).
I just think Janish makes Pastornicky redundant, but Pastornicky, to me, is a more versatile option given his bat is a bit better than Janish’s already (and surely should improve). Obviously you wouldn’t want Pastornicky getting more than a start or two at SS, so if there is an issue with Simmons you’d need to switch them out pretty immediately.
Janish is very useful as a backup shortstop, but In the context of the 13-position player roster, I just think Pastornicky makes more sense than Janish.
Well, then comes the question of whether it’s worth it for Pastornicky’s development. Would he be better off in AAA, batting every day? Or being with the big club, starting once or twice a month and pinch hitting maybe once a week? One way, he’s getting in his reps. The other way, he’s facing big league pitchers, just less often.
I’ve no idea which is better, either in general or specifically with Pastornicky.
The question you are truly asking is not Janish vs. Pastornicky. The question is Janish vs. Constanza/Schafer, and Janish certainly wins that competition due to the value in his defense. I do believe Pastornicky would be better suited in the minors, hopefully reaching his potential and becoming an asset to use in a trade. But the MLB club as it stands is the priority, and he is the best option for the role that he will play. Mejia is also redundant, since Reed Johnson shows great splits against lefties, except with a little less power.
Chris Johnson has logged innings at 1B as well as the OF (which I just now learned when I looked it up) but I wouldn’t be surprised if that was why FW asked for him in the trade. Losing Prado means we will need multiple guys to fill his one list of duties, and Johnson seems to be more versatile, er, defensively experienced than I thought.
Pastornicky and Janish aren’t exactly redundant. Janish is better at short (though that’s not as necessary with Simmons there), and I’m betting he would be better at 2B. Also, I’d like to see Pastornicky sent back down to continue learning new positions – 2B, 3B, all the OF spots – to maximize his utility. Janish is also locked in for $1 million this season. Considering there’s not much of an upgrade, I’d prefer to wait it out and let Pastornicky learn a bit more in the minors.
Mejia’s value is not just the power potential, he can mash righties and lefties with basically no spilt. In fact last year in AAA he had a reverse split with most AB’s against RHP. Right now if Francisco is starting he is the best bat against righties. If C. Johnson is starting then Francisco and R. Johnson on the bench make Mejia expendable. Then the last spot most likely goes to Constanza or Schaefer.
To clarify one point, when I say “a start or two at SS”, I mean if Simmons is injured. Obviously a spot start here and there over the course of the season (which could add up to a dozen starts) is fine.
Maybe I’m missing something, but if Mejia doesn’t make the team, who backs up 1B? C. Johnson (35 career MLB innings at 1B)? Pastornicky (no 1B experience majors or minors)?
Freddy Gonzalez mentioned maybe working Pastornicky in at 1B (in yesterday’s AJC Q&A) but that seems sketchy to rely on if Freeman gets hurt or needs a day off.
Why can’t Janish or Pastornicky just slide over to Third? That seems like a better option than Francisco or Johnson…
My guess would be because neither can hit worth a darn.
Yeah, the defensive boost you would get would be far outweighed by the lack of offense.
Why has Blake Dewitt’s name been left off in this conversation? I believe he was signed during the off season to a minor league contract. The Bench as I see it: Francisco/C. Johnson, Laird, Dewitt, Mejia, R. Johnson. Janish hurt, Pastornicky needs more AAA work along with Pena. Just not a spot for Gattis as much as I like him. Rotation: Medlen, Minor, Hudson, Maholm, Tehran. Bullpen: Kimbrel, O’Flaherty, Venters, C. Martinez, Avilan, Walden, Gearrin.
Lineup:
Simmons SS
Heyward RF
J. Upton LF
Freeman 1st
B.J.Upton CF
McCann C
Uggla 2nd
Francisco/C. Johnson 3rd
Pitcher
Oh my god, I didn’t realize we had Blake DeWitt. He better get a long look at one of the bench spots. He was always undervalued in LA and Chicago…he’s a good player.
I did forget about DeWitt. Overall, he’s a decent player and a solid bench option. With the last spot, I’m guessing the Braves would prefer another hitter (Janish and Johnson being able to sub in defensively), and that’s not really DeWitt’s main value. I’ll edit him in.
I would say DeWitt has a lot of value just because he bats left-handed and most of the other legit options are right-handed bats. Plus DeWitt has hit decently at times and has outfield experience as well just in case an emergency situation should arise.
Yeah, I worry about our left handed bench options when Francisco starts (which presumably will be the majority of time…possibly more if he hits well enough against lefties to earn a full time job). And while I understand the Braves going with a hitter like Mejia or Pastornicky, I would definitely put DeWitt above Constanza and Schafer and the other possibilities. If they decide they want Pastornicky to play every day and that Mejia doesn’t have enough versatility to justify a roster spot, then I would be inclined to choose DeWitt.
DeWitt doesn’t exactly hit righties well.
Mejia hits righties as well as lefties. He just strikes out a lot and has no defensive value.
Well, yeah, but I’d take him against righties over Schafer, Constanza and Pena. I just think he’s a good option if the Braves decide they don’t want to take Mejia. He put together three fairly productive albeit unspectacular seasons with the Dodgers and Cubs, but seemed to fall off a cliff last year. He didn’t play much even in triple A. Was he injured?
When it comes to depth, the Braves are actually in pretty good shape in most ways.
Guys like Pastornicky and Constanza, who are nothing spectacular but have played at the major league level, may not even make the 40 man roster because we have other/better options. Bethancourt may not be able to hit, but he’s a better #3 catcher than most teams have to offer.
Pitching is solid too. If Teheran is half as good this year as he is projected to be eventually, he could be the best #5 starter in baseball. Until Beachy comes back, then he might find himself back in the minors. Gilmartin and Graham, two very legit pitchers, aren’t likely to even smell the majors this year. It’s nice to have that luxury and let them develop in the minors.
The bullpen is rock solid and lights out from top to bottom. The fact that we will end up leaving either Gearrin or Varvaro off the list shows just how much talent we have in that department.
3rd base is one glaring weakness, but otherwise we seem to have a very deep team this year. Bring on Opening Day!
I don’t think Schafer and Constanza can be mentioned in the same breath. Constanza is a far superior player in every respect. Better hitter, fielder and base runner. While Jose sputters out, when the guy hits, he hits. It may only be in streaks, but I’d love to see him get a spot as a pinch runner.
I’ve never seen anything out of Schafer that makes me think he can play at the Major League level. At least Jose goes on tears, and busts his ass even when he’s slumping. Schafer always seems to be in a slump, and just seems like he’s kind of there because he has to be. And that pinch hit triple Constanza had in the wild card game was a very nice piece of hitting. Schafer would have never been able to do that.
Although I’d also like Mejia or Gattis were added as well. Would prefer it as Mark said, having a good power bat off the bench would be nice. Schafer shouldn’t even be considered, IMO.
Should be between Mejia, Gattis and Jose.
Constanza is far and away a much better hitter than Schafer, I don’t think that can even be disputed. But defensively, I think its a push as both as sub par defenders. It still boggles my mind how some people think Schafer is absolutely outstanding in the field, they couldn’t be any further from reality. He gets bad breaks and takes absolutely horrible routes to the ball. I digress.
I also think it will come down to Gattis and Mejia. It should be an interesting Spring Training for both, I hope they do well.
The only good thing about Schafer’s defense is that he’s got a solid arm where Constanza has a noodle for an arm.
I think people remember Shafer making some diving plays in CF in his brief time in Atl, but fail to realize that the plays would have been routine for a good CF. The “spectacular” plays he made were on balls Jones(in the past) or Bourn would have been camped under.
It is sad that a player with the tools(speed and arm) Shafer has, that he does not have the discipline or ability to be a good defensive CF(maybe he smokes too much).
What i would do done to have his athleticism. . . unbelievable. night and day
This author is an idiot. First, I think Evan Gattis has the inside shot at the final roster spot, as his 16 homer Winter Ball performance wowed alot of Atlanta execs (as did Fransisco’s), and he is not even mentioned for the spot he is likely to take. But the biggest idiot comment I saw was saying Jose Constanza “is not adept at all at hitting”. LOL!! Are we talking about the same guy? The guy that is a career .300 hitter in the minors? the guy that hit .309 in 2006, hit .319 in 2010, hit .312 in 2011, and .314 in 2012 in the minors? Want major leagues now, how about him hitting .303 for the Atlanta Braves in 2011? All the GUY DOES IS HIT!! He may not hit for power, but I will take .300 and 20 steals in a reserve role any day of the week. How power hungry these “fans” are today, so much so that I guess guys like Michael Bourne, Emilio Bonifacio, and Juan Pierre back in the day, weren’t/aren’t good hitters because they don’t hit for power? Also, I guess this “author” forgot Constanza nearly brought us back in the NLDS game this year with his huge momentum swinging TRIPLE…oh well, some guys are too dumb to learn.
First, you do realize the “idiot” author worked in the front office under Wren and Coppolella last year, right? Of course that doesn’t make him right necessarily (although I happen to believe he is), but if you believe that the front office is in the practice of hiring “idiots” perhaps you should resign your fanhood now, as obviously the Braves are headed down the drain, because in your view they’re being ran by a bunch of idiots that hire idiots.
Secondly, if you resort to name calling like a 6 year old child again, you will be IP banned.
BURN!!!!!!
LOL!! Is this a serious site? I mean really, it is 2013 and you are contemplating banning me over the word “idiot”, and who is the 6 year old, again? The only thing worse than an overly sensitive man-boy, is a spell checker… and oh, wait apparently there is one of those as well. I don’t even want to be in here if you people get bent out of arms over an “idiot” comment, and then procede to find the one word i spelled wrong, and laugh about it. VERY lame. You little boys must be so glued to this writer’s jock, that you can’t even see objective analysis anymore…did any of you even read the point I was making? I guess you were too busy searching for cursewords to ban me over, and incorrect grammer… You losers are truly pathetic…ban me, I don’t even care. I can’t believe you tools enjoy this censorship and propoganda machine. How dare I question this author or Frank Wren, right?
LOL!!! Oh god this keeps getting funnier, I didn’t even read the “and this author worked in the front office under Frank Wren, so what” comment. ROFL!!!!!!! I am on the floor laughing, because you think being Frank Wren’s coffee boy, somehow in some way makes this guy’s “dumb opinion” now “valid”. OOOHHHH I said dumb, am I gonna get banned? Oh fiddlesticks…oooopppps am I gonna get banned because I just said fiddlesticks? This is a joke… This is why The Capital Avenue whatever has not blown up, because of this immature petty crap… OOOPPPSS sorry I said crap. Plug the children’s ears…
I thought the reason we haven’t blown up was because we’re idiots.
You seem to want to be banned, so I’ll oblige you.
Dude, what are 12?
Constanza hits MLB pitching to the awesome OPS tune of .673 in his career (.587 last year)
He most definitely can’t “hit”.
He’s a 5th OF’er on a 2nd division team.
now go get yer ***ing shine box
your point was misinformed and, frankly, wrong. But you’re allowed to have it. That’s why I didn’t respond to it, because it’s an opinion you’re allowed to have, that I don’t even think warrants a response, so whatever. However, we’ve in the past seen what happens when immature name calling is allowed on the site. The comments degenerate into childish patter, very similar to what you are spewing now, and it, in fact, runs off potential viewers. I warned you that the sort of name-calling you engaged in isn’t allowed, and then you responded with an immature response, and have shown no inclination to change. Since you seem to dislike the site anyway, I’ll do you the favor of banning you.
You might try the facebook group “Thanks Bobby!”, it would seem to cater to opinions and methods of expression more in line with your preferred line of discourse.
Actually CAC did blow up. 3 years ago. Thousands of comments on every article. All just like yours Keith. Uninformed, crazy and highly childish. Comments were banned for everyone and the founder left. When comments were restored they were again relevant and informative. I don’t know about overall traffic but the quality of the site is much better than when a bunch raucous children were commenting on it. Good Day Sir
the site currently has the highest level of readership of any time since its establishment, by a healthy margin. The only short term dip in readership that we’ve ever seen was during the run up to the comments ban (2 years ago), when a few commenters made the site unbearable for many. After comments were turned off, readership actually increased over what it had been. Then, when we brought them back, we’ve seen healthy growth as well.
I don’t care that you disagree with the author. Plenty of us disagree all the time. it’s what you believe to be a rational line of discourse isn’t up to what we allow here. We had to do away with the comments section last year because immature individuals, much like yourself, were causing readership to drop, by making the comments section a pain to many of our regular readers.
We get into heated debates in the comments section ALL THE TIME, but by and large the tone remains respectful. When people are disrespectful to other readers, or our writers, they’re simply barred. It’s not about free speech, we don’t try to deny points of view, it’s about respect. By banning individuals like you, I believe that we in fact encourage open communication, because nobody has to worry about silly attacks that hide the ideas. We do our best to foster the free exchange of ideas in a respectful manner.
*grammar
I would just like to point out that as soon as you called the author an “idiot,” you might as well have stopped typing at that point because your entire argument became worthless.
Also, if you’re going to call someone an “idiot,” you may want to ensure that you don’t make yourself look like an “idiot” by not knowing how a former player spells his name… Michael’s name does not have an “e” on the end…
haliriousness ensues!
This is hilarious. It seems we have the ESPN/AJC wanderer of all ESPN/AJC wanderers. You’d think Gattis was running for office reading some of those boards.
The problems most people see with the point you were trying to make was first that you think Gattis has the inside track on the spot. Gattis has not played above AAA, is more valuable at catcher and need more work in the minors. I’m as big of a fan of Gattis as anyone but if I am his fan I want him in the minors to improve. If he goes to the bench now he may be a lifetime bench player. Also, winter ball league stats are not on the same level as MLB stats. Also, he hit the same as Mejia so there is no offensive benefit of Gattis over Mejia at this point.
Now concerning Constanza, saying he can’t hit is not correct from what people say because he could be a .280+ hitter if given the chance. And one game where he hits a triple does not override all of the season where he struggled mightily. But the power does count. Hitting is about how many bases/runs each player can generate. Constanza can generate maybe .333 base per at bat. However someone like Francisco, Mejia or Gattis even with a lower batting average may generate .450 bases per at bat. Which one is more valuable. Constanza could have value as a pinch runner or outfield back up but there are other candidates who may be more deserving of that spot.
The last thing is to make your point you tried to belittle someone else. This is a website with where many ideas are allowed to flow form many people. We argue over many things but we don’t put people down to try and make us appear more intelligent. All you did was show how you may be emotionally undeveloped. Hope you learn to have rational discussions without getting low on others. Sorry people responded poorly to you and I’m glad you almost thought of taking the high ground.
The signing of Ramiro Pena was a complete headscratcher. The guy has a career .650 minor league OPS and Janish was already signed. What can Pena provide that Janish can’t? If the answer is a worse bat, then YES!
My choices for the spots available:
Rotation: Teheran. He deserves the chance to learn just like Minor received. I just hope the Braves don’t jump ship if he has ups and downs early.
Bullpen: Gearrin. We could use a ROOGY and Walden gives Fredi the flexibility to use Gearrin the way he’s meant to be used. I’ve never really liked Varvaro as he’s always seemed nervous on the mound. Furthermore, Cory has a knack for keeping the ball in the park (has only given up 1 HR in the last 2 years between the Minors and Majors).
Backup Catcher- If McCann is back Opening Day, this question is obsolete, as Laird will no doubt be the backup. But assuming he’s not, I’d like to see Gattis as the primary catcher and Laird as his mentor. Hopefully, the Braves are having Gattis work extra hard these next 2 months at his catching defense so if opportunity knocks, he’ll be ready. I’d like nothing more than for Gattis to force his way into the lineup destroying baseballs and receive 200-250 ABs through being the primary catcher at the beginning of the year and the backup catcher/PH extraordinairre when McCann returns.
Starting 3rd Baseman: I don’t really care. C.Johnson seems more likable than Fat Juan, but Juan seems to be the more talented option. Truthfully, I’d like a platoon to start out the season, then ride the hot hitter.
Last bench spot: Assuming the Braves carry Laird, Pena/Janish, R.Johnson, and C.Johnson/Francisco on the bench, there seems to be a need for another LH hitting super-utility guy. Blake DeWitt seems to fit the bill (however, interestingly enough, he has a reverse platoon split for his career). While the selfish and homer side of me would like to see Gattis or Mejia win this spot, I think the baseball minded me thinks it should go to someone with a bit more versatility.
The only reason Ramiro Pena was signed was to take Janish’s place on the roster as the backup Shortstop in case Janish isn’t ready to go at the start of the season. Remember Janish badly dislocating his shoulder near the end of last season and having to have surgery? That’s the only reason Tyler Pastornicky was on the postseason roster.
I really wish we would have solved this bench problem and improved the lineup simultaneously by just signing Kelly Johnson.
What, to back-up Uggla? Take a gander at his stats post-2010.
To play 3B and fill in as a LH OFer, as we only have Reed Johnson to fill in out there, and he doesn’t hit righties very well. He could play any position. The Rays don’t plan on him being a regular, and the A’s don’t plan on Lowrie being a regular, necessarily. But he could play 3-4 times a week because he can fill in at a few different positions.
Post 2010 he was a 3 win player, and in 2012 his WAR suffered from a negative defensive rating, which have been all over the board throughout his career, but still has a positive rating for his career.
His career wRC+ is above league average against BOTH RHP and LHP, and just gives you more security all around than Mejia, Gattis, Constanza, or Schafer.
There is a reason he is now playing under the smartest GM and Manager.
I’ll also say a lot of KJ’s struggles the last 2 seasons has to do with the Blue Jays all or nothing hitting approach.
I would’ve liked to have seen us sign KJ but I think he might’ve been a little too expensive.
Kelly would have never signed here. He’s looking to rebuild value and get 1 more decent sized Multi-year contract. He couldn’t have done that being a pinch hitter.
To be honest I don’t think the discussion on the last bench spot is all that important. I believe most the guys discussed will get called up at some point and get a chance to play off the bench. Especially as injuries occur.
However, I still will state what I believe will happen because I am a wanna be GM as much as everyone else here.
First, I don’t think Fredi will want to use R. Johnson as his bench bat unless he has someone like Constanza/Schaefer on the roster to “capable” play the outfield. Not that I believe they are great this is me reading Fredi’s mind. A similar situation to not using Ross to pinch hit often. Second, I think Fredi will want a LH bench bat even if Gattis or Mejia can hit righties better than Schafer/Constanza. Next, I think they will want Gattis in AAA to get work in everyday catching and hitting since he has never faced above AA. Lastly, I believe Wren is a big fan of Pena, not that I think he is better than Janish but everytime he talk he makes it sound like Pena is our backup middle infielder.
So my quick opinion of a bench is C. Johnson, R. Johnson, Laird, Pena (even though I rather see Janish), and Constanza (possibly Schafer). Outside a shot for Janish to take Pena’s spot based off ST and possibly a shot for Mejia to take Constanza’s spot if they decide the Francisco/C. Johnson backup could play a serviceable LF.
That is my worry as well. If a starting OF gets hurt, then Reed Johnson is inserted, and who plays when one of the other two needs a rest? I would sincerely hope it isn’t Schafer or Constanza. Hopefully someone like Cunningham has a great ST and earns a roster spot by May, if not right out of the gate.
I would hate for Reed to be David Ross’d late in games just because we don’t have another person labeled ‘OF’.
I like Cunningham as well. I was a fan of trying him starting in LF until we traded for J Upton. I still think they will want him in AAA most of the year. Maybe he can be good trade bait in the future.
And it’s because of what you said that I believe Blake DeWitt has a really strong chance to make the team. He has experience playing the outfield and I’d much rather take my chances with him hitting righties better than Constanza or Schafer. I don’t want Constanza or Schafer anywhere near my team.
Francisco/Johnson
Laird/pagnozzi (depends on Mac)
Pena
Johnson
Schafer
One problem that no one seems to mention (so maybe I am completely wrong, since I havent heard anything about it anywhere) is that Chris Johnson has reverse splits. His slash line against LH pitching is .245/.298/.374 in 139 career ABs. I know its a small sample size, but it worries me that neither of favorites vying for the starting 3B job can hit lefties.
For those of you more statistically inclined, his peripheral stats seem to support reverse splits as well. His ISO against lefties is.117 as opposed to .169 against RHP. His wOBA of .288 against LHP and a wRC+ of only 76 seem to show that he has not been productive against lefties at all, with less power.
My only question is, if he can’t hit lefties and can’t field that well, why keep him around at all?
In the minors he had normal L/R splits, so the prevailing belief is that those weird splits are just small sample size weirdness.
Why all the love for Dewitt. He is a career OPS+ of 89 (similar to Constanza with his career OPS+ of 84)which makes him not a desired bat of the bench, especially all of you saying he can play OF his bat does not profile. He just does not hit lefties or righties well enough to desire ABs. He has played all over the field but he plays none of them well. If you want a utility player you could move Janish around and get a better glove. He just is not a fit from the bench.
My hope is for Mejia to get the spot. The only pinch hitters should be C. Johnson/Francisco sub, Mejia, and R. Johnson. Janish and Laird and anybody else mentioned (Schafer, Constanza, DeWitt) should not bat off the bench unless they have to due to injury. I would be ok with Gattis but I really want him to get a full year of catching AAA.
dude, who cares about Constanza’s career 84 OPS+, ALL HE DOES IS HIT!!!
I submit that this become a meme on this site!!!
I dub it “Keithing”
I’d go with:
Pagnozzi
Francisco/Johnson
R. Johnson
Janish or Pena
Mejia
Give Pastornicky everyday AB’s in AAA and see what he can do. I haven’t given up on him. Could be a solid 2B or utility man in the future. DeWitt was a decent player at one time, but he has been horrible the last couple years. Really needs to prove himself again.
Also I really don’t understand why we signed Pena to a MLB deal. Could have easily signed a similar player to a minor league deal and put them on the 40 man if Janish is still injured when season starts.
Why isn’t DeWitt being considered as a platoon mate with Juan? Here is his line against lefties, compared with Chris Johnson:
DeWitt: .290 .373 .440 .813
Johnson: .255 .294 .372 .667
It’s a very limited sample size for DeWitt against LHP (only 228 plate appearances). So it could be a fluke that his numbers are that good. Or he could actually be a really good hitter against LHP despite being a LHB much like Kelly Johnson. It’s weird how that kinda thing works.
Here are some defensive metrics, Rtot/yr, Rdrs/yr, UZR/150, all at 3B:
DeWitt: +8, +5, +4.9
Johnson: -12, -17, -16.3
DeWitt plays 2B and can cover LF. Johnson MIGHT cover 1B. I would sure give him a look. It’s pretty odd that we have two guys playing 3B–DeWitt and Johnson–and both have significantly reversed splits.
All He Does is HIT!!!!
:-p
Keith’d!
I’m Varvaro’s close friend and, you are correct, he’s out of options.
Let’s go Anthony!
It seems to me that Paul Janish’s spot on the 25 man roster should belong to Tyler Pastornicky. Janish is useful if Pastornicky is the starter (a la early 2012) as a late inning defensive replacement. But with Andrelton Simmons the starter (and healthly) what exactly does Janish offer the active roster? You aren’t replacing Simmons late in games and no one with a clue would send Janish to the plate to do anything other than bunt. Pastornicky has some bat skill, has defensive flexibility to give rest starts and is a good baserunner. He fills 2-3 roles including the 1 that Janish does. I’d trade Mejia’s 1 thing (power) for Janish’s.
If Simmons gets hurt for more than a couple of days, then yes I can see having Janish there to start or come in late at SS. I just think you have to plan for how you’d like your roster to work in a perfect sense then adjust to what comes. Remember there isn’t Erik Hinske to give pop off the bench. Last season you had Hinske AND Francisco. Now with Francisco most likely starting at least most of the time, there will only be one power bat on the bench.
Oh and there’s no David Ross with pop off the bench either. The prescence of Gerald Laird wasting a roster spot makes keeping Mejia on the roster all the more important. Unless you replace Laird with Gattis. Gattis actually gives you more defensive flexibility than Mejia (even if it’s bad defense).